Southeast Asian nations avoided mention Thursday of China's construction of islands in the South China Sea and a U.N.-linked arbitration ruling that invalidated Beijing's claims in the disputed waters in the latest show of China's regional clout.
From left, Brunei Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah, Indonesia President Joko Widodo, Malaysia Prime Minister Najib Razak and Thailand Prime Minister Prayut Chan-ocha link arms as they pose for a group photo during the East Asia Summit in Manila, Philippines on Tuesday Nov. 14, 2017. (Erik De Castro/Pool Photo via AP)
President Rodrigo Duterte, speaking on behalf of fellow heads of state of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, also expectedly skirted any expression of alarm over serious human rights concerns in the region, including the plight of Rohingya Muslims in Myanmar and his deadly anti-drug campaign in a statement following their annual summit Monday in Manila.
Such statements have been made public shortly after the annual gatherings of leaders of the 10-nation bloc but there was no immediate explanation for the three-day delay, which drew the attention of some Manila-based diplomats. The few instances of delays in the past were caused by differences over wording on long-thorny issues, like the territorial rifts.
China, which wields considerable influence on ASEAN, has steadfastly opposed criticism of its artificial islands, where it has reportedly installed a missile defense system despite widespread concern, including by the United States, Japan and Australia.
Duterte, who took office last year and assumed ASEAN's rotational chairmanship this year, has openly tried to court China's friendship, trade, investment and infrastructure financing. He has toned down sharp rebuke of China's assertive actions in the strategic waterway, one of the world's busiest, and refused to immediately seek Chinese compliance with an arbitration ruling last year that invalidated its vast claims in the South China Sea on historical grounds.
His rapprochement turned the Philippines from being one of Beijing's sharpest critics in the disputed sea.
In the ASEAN statement, Duterte repeated previous calls for a peaceful resolution of the disputes, adherence to the rule of law and welcomed the approval of a framework or outline of a proposed "code of conduct" aimed at preventing confrontation in the contested waters. Deadly clashes have erupted in the past between Chinese and Vietnamese forces.
With an agreed outline, first proposed 15 years ago, negotiations could now start for the regional code, according to a joint statement by ASEAN and China whose leaders met Monday. Both sides agreed to start the negotiations early next year and conclude the talks as soon as possible, with Duterte taking a position that the code should be legally binding, presidential spokesman Harry Roque said.
"We further reaffirmed the need to enhance mutual trust and confidence, emphasized the importance of non-militarization and self-restraint in the conduct of all activities by claimants and all other states ... that could further complicate the situation and escalate tensions in the South China Sea," the statement said.
While ASEAN's decision to adopt a non-confrontational approach promotes friendly relations with China, it may not foster the rule of law, said Malcolm Cook, a senior fellow with the ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore.
"It is bad because it clearly places the political expediency of good relations with China over holding China to fulfilling its commitments under international law," Cook said. "Short term expediency trumps long-term principle."
On human rights, ASEAN "welcomed the commitment by Myanmar authorities to ensure the safety of civilians, take immediate steps to end the violence in Rakhine, restore normal socio-economic conditions, and address the refugee problem through verification process" in language devoid of the alarm expressed by some governments amid deadly conditions threatening the Rohingya.
"They expressed support to the Myanmar government in its efforts to bring peace, stability, rule of law and to promote harmony and reconciliation between the various communities, as well as sustainable and equitable development in Rakhine State," ASEAN said.
There was no mention of concerns expressed by European Union, U.S. and U.N. officials over Duterte's bloody crackdown against illegal drugs, which has left thousands of suspects dead and has been marked by allegations of extrajudicial killings.
LUANG PRABANG, Laos (AP) — Southeast Asian economies are gaining ground as tourism and exports recover from the shocks of the pandemic, but geopolitical tensions and volatile commodity prices still pose serious risks, regional financial leaders said Friday.
Laos’ Finance Minister Santiphab Phomvihane read out a joint statement following meetings among finance ministers at a hotel in the Laotian city of Luang Prabang, a UNESCO heritage site, but he made no other remarks and took no questions.
Estimates for economic growth in members of the 10-nation Association of Southeast Asian Nations vary but are generally near a robust 5% for 2024.
“Nevertheless, there are still challenges due to adverse financial spillovers from geopolitical tensions, volatility in global commodity prices,” Phomvihane said, also pointing to climate change, aging populations and rapid development of digitalization as key factors for the region.
He did not elaborate, but the repercussions of the war in Ukraine and tensions between Washington and Beijing are among the geopolitical risks that have impacted trade and global commodity prices in recent years, trickling down to the smaller ASEAN economies that depend heavily on trade with China.
ASEAN members also include Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. East-Timor is seeking to join.
As ASEAN's most economically challenged economy, excluding its strife-torn neighbor Myanmar, Laos has time to prepare for the aging of its youthful population of about 7.5 million. Some of its neighbors are growing old before they become affluent. The government reckons it is in a demographic sweet spot with a couple of decades to prepare. But it faces a raft of other troubles, with massive foreign debt, a weakening currency and inflation running at about 25%.
In terms of U.S. dollars Laos' economy is shrinking due to the devaluation of its currency, the kip. However, in local currency terms it grew at a 3.7% rate last year and is forecast to expand at a 4% rate in 2024.
“Things are normalizing,” said Winfried F. Wicklein, director general for Southeast Asia for the Asian Development Bank.
But the country is deemed to be in debt distress, with payment obligations exceeding $1 billion a year and total borrowing amounting to about 125% of its economy, with half owed to China.
Chinese financial institutions are believed to have rescheduled payments for about $2 billion in those debts since 2020, helping Laos to avoid an outright default and relieving some pressure on the economy.
“Large chunks of debt repayments owed to China are being pushed into the future with little transparency around the interest and repayment process for this,” said Keith Barney, a professor at Australia National University's Crawford School of Public Policy and who has been researching Laos for more than 20 years.
“The Lao economy is facing serious problems and it’s hard to see an immediately apparent exit route”," he said. “Laos’s debt problems are narrowing its future pathways for economic growth in different ways.”
Still, Laos has acknowledged the seriousness of its debt quandary, allowing the public release of a report by the International Monetary Fund last year that minced no words in outlining urgent actions it said were needed to repair the country's finances, Wicklein noted.
“They realize they have a problem and are open to help. They are inviting you to the kitchen and it means a lot,” he said.
On the sidelines of the ASEAN meetings this week, Laos signed agreements on launching cross-border payments using QR codes, among other incremental steps aimed at integrating its finances and economy into those of its bigger and richer neighbors.
There were no big statements on climate-related issues as the officials met surrounded by forests obscured by thick smoke from hill fires and burning of fields and waste, a seasonal problem that Laos shares with its ASEAN neighbors.
But such meetings allow top financial officials to collaborate in sharing lessons they have learned as they plot strategies on curbing carbon emissions.
“It's a long way to go, but everybody is committed to the same direction,” Wicklein said.
Wicklein pointed to a 600 megawatt monsoon wind power project that will allow Laos to export electricity to neighboring Vietnam as an example of increasing investments in the energy sector beyond Laos' huge hydroelectric power sector.
“These megadeals have a demonstrable effect,” he said.
Smoke from trash burning in a village outside the Lao UNESCO heritage site of Luang Prabang, Laos joins the heavy haze over much of inland Southeast Asia due to crop and waste burning, Saturday, April 6, 2024. ASEAN finance ministers met in Luang Prabang this week to discuss economic and financial issues including ways to help finance reductions in carbon emissions that contribute to global warming. (AP Photo/Elaine Kurtenbach)
Smoke from waste burning and hill fires obscures the view in a village outside the Lao UNESCO heritage site of Luang Prabang, Saturday, April 6, 2024, part of a heavy haze that is blanketing much of inland Southeast Asia. ASEAN finance ministers met in Luang Prabang this week to discuss economic and financial issues including ways to help finance reductions in carbon emissions that contribute to global warming. (AP Photo/Elaine Kurtenbach)
Farmers burn crop waste from a field outside the Lao UNESCO heritage site of Luang Prabang, Saturday, April 6, 2024, adding to the heavy haze over much of inland Southeast Asia in spring months due to crop and waste burning. ASEAN finance ministers met in Luang Prabang this week to discuss economic and financial issues including ways to help finance reductions in carbon emissions that contribute to global warming. (AP Photo/Elaine Kurtenbach)
Smoke from trash burning in a village outside the Lao UNESCO heritage site of Luang Prabang joins the heavy haze over much of inland Southeast Asia due to crop and waste burning, Saturday, April 6, 2024. ASEAN finance ministers met in Luang Prabang this week to discuss economic and financial issues including ways to help finance reductions in carbon emissions that contribute to global warming. (AP Photo/Elaine Kurtenbach)
A farmer tends their fields in stifling temperatures as surrounding hills are choked by smoke from field and hill fires across the region, Thursday, April 4, 2024, in Luang Prabang, Laos. Financial officials of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations were meeting in the city to discuss ways to secure financing to help shift to more sustainable and less polluting agriculture and energy. (AP Photo/Elaine Kurtenbach)
Farmers tend their fields in stifling temperatures as surrounding hills are choked by smoke from field and hill fires across the region, Thursday, April 4, 2024, in Luang Prabang, Laos. Financial officials of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations were meeting in the city to discuss ways to secure financing to help shift to more sustainable and less polluting agriculture and energy. (AP Photo/Elaine Kurtenbach)
