What's expected at Japanese PM Kishida's US visit? A major upgrade in defense ties

TOKYO (AP) — Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is making an official visit to the United States this week. He will hold a summit with President Joe Biden that's meant to achieve a major upgrading of their defense alliance.

He will also join a first-ever summit of the U.S., Japanese and Philippine leaders in Washington to showcase their cooperation in the face of an increasingly assertive China.

The Associated Press explains the significance of Kishida’s visit and the two summits.

The biggest event during the weeklong trip is his summit with Biden on Wednesday. Kishida hopes to further strengthen the alliance as China's influence grows in the Indo-Pacific.

Kishida is also reaching out to the American public to showcase Japan’s contribution to the U.S. economy and ensure stable relations regardless of who wins the U.S. presidential election later this year.

Kishida, who has pushed sweeping changes fortifying Japan’s defense capabilities since taking office in 2021, will emphasize that Japan and the U.S. are now global partners working to maintain a rules-based international order, and that Japan is willing to take on a greater international role in security, economy and space to help Washington.

Expanding arms equipment and technology cooperation between the two countries and other like-minded partners is also highly important, Kishida on Friday told selected media, including AP.

Kishida, stung by a corruption scandal, needs a successful U.S. visit to shore up low support ratings at home.

As a state guest, Kishida will be welcomed in a White House arrival ceremony on the South Lawn, a formal state dinner and other official events. He is the fifth state guest of Biden, who has also hosted leaders of India, Australia, South Korea and France, underscoring America’s focus on Indo-Pacific security partnerships.

Kishida is the first Japanese leader to make a state visit since Shinzo Abe in 2015. Abe made a major revision to the interpretation of Japan’s pacifist Constitution, allowing its self-defense-only principle to also cover its ally, the United States.

Defense tops the agenda because of growing worries about threats from China, North Korea and Russia. Chinese coast guard ships regularly approach disputed Japanese-controlled East China Sea islands near Taiwan. Beijing says Taiwan is part of its territory and will be brought under control by force if necessary.

There are also worries about North Korean nuclear and missile threats and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Kishida has warned that the war in Europe could lead to conflict in East Asia, suggesting that a lax attitude to Russia emboldens China.

“While we maintain the Japan-U.S. alliance as a cornerstone, we believe it is important to cooperate with like-minded countries, including the Philippines,” Kishida said.

Biden and Kishida are expected to agree on a plan to modernize their military command structures so they can better operate together. America stations 50,000 troops in Japan. The Japanese Self Defense Force is preparing to restructure so it has a unified command for ground, air and naval forces by March 2025.

Also expected are new initiatives for defense industry cooperation, including co-production of weapons, possibly a new missile, and the repair and maintenance of American warships and other equipment in Japan to help U.S. operations in the western Pacific.

Japan’s possible participation in a U.S.-U.K.-Australia security partnership to develop and share advanced military capabilities, including artificial intelligence, electronic warfare and hypersonics, may also come up.

Kishida and Biden are also expected to confirm Japan’s participation in NASA’s Artemis moon program and its contribution of a moon rover developed by Toyota Motor Corp. and the inclusion of a Japanese astronaut. The rover, which comes at a roughly $2 billion cost, is the most expensive contribution to the mission by a non-U.S. partner to date, a U.S. official said.

Since adopting a more expansive national security strategy in 2022, Kishida’s government has taken bold steps to accelerate Japan’s military buildup. He hopes to show Tokyo is capable of elevating its security cooperation with the U.S. Kishida has pledged to double defense spending and boost deterrence against China, which Japan considers a top security threat.

Japan, working to acquire what it calls a “counterstrike” capability, has purchased 400 U.S. Tomahawk long-range cruise missiles. After prohibiting almost all weapons transfers, it has relaxed export guidelines twice in recent months, allowing the sale of lethal weapons to countries from which they were licensed and the overseas sales of a fighter jet it’s co-developing with the U.K. and Italy. The changes have allowed Japan to ship Japanese-made PAC-3 missiles to the U.S. to help replace those contributed by Washington to Ukraine.

The first-ever trilateral summit between Biden, Kishida and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. comes as the Philippines faces escalating maritime tension with China over their contested South China Sea claims.

Biden wants to show that the three maritime democracies are unified as they face aggressive Chinese action against the Philippine coast guard and its supply vessels off the disputed Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea, according to a senior Biden administration official.

Japan has sold coastal radars to the Philippines and is now negotiating a defense agreement that would allow their troops to visit each other’s turf for joint military exercises.

The trilateral comes eight months after Biden hosted a meeting with leaders from Japan and South Korea at Camp David.

“Cooperation among our three countries are extremely important in maintaining peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific and in defending a free and open international order based on the rules of law,” Kishida said Monday before leaving for Washington.

Kishida also wants to highlight Japan’s economic contributions in the U.S. There is growing uncertainty in Tokyo about U.S. elections, reflected by questions about what happens if former President Donald Trump wins, though experts say there is a bipartisan consensus on a stronger U.S.-Japan alliance.

Kishida will meet with business leaders and visit Toyota’s electric vehicle battery factory under construction for a planned launch in 2025, and Honda’s business jet subsidiary in North Carolina. He will also meet students at North Carolina State University on Friday.

In his congressional speech on Thursday, Kishida said he plans to convey “what Japan and the United States want to hand down to future generations and what we need to do for them.”

FILE - Crew members of Philippine coast guard BRP Sindangan prepare rubber fenders as a Chinese coast guard ship tries to block it's path while they tried to enter the Second Thomas Shoal, locally known as Ayungin Shoal, in the disputed South China Sea Tuesday, March 5, 2024. The first-ever trilateral summit between President Joe Biden, Japanese Prime Minister Kishida and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. comes as the Philippines faces escalating maritime tension with China over their contested South China Sea claims. (AP Photo/Aaron Favila, File)

FILE - Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, right, greets Philippines' President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. prior to their bilateral meeting at the prime minister's official residence in Tokyo, Sunday, Dec. 17, 2023, on the sidelines of the Commemorative Summit for the 50th Year of ASEAN-Japan Friendship and Cooperation. The first-ever trilateral summit between President Joe Biden, Kishida and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. comes as the Philippines faces escalating maritime tension with China over their contested South China Sea claims.(Franck Robichon/Pool Photo via AP, File)

FILE - Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida speaks during an interview with foreign media members ahead of an official visit to the United States at the Prime Minister's official residence Friday, April 5, 2024, in Tokyo. Kishida is making an official visit to the United States this week. He will hold a summit with President Joe Biden that's meant to achieve a major upgrading of their defense alliance.(AP Photo/Eugene Hoshiko, File)

FILE - An MV-22 Osprey takes off as Japan Ground Self-Defense Force guards the landing zone during a joint military drill with U.S. Marines in Gotemba, southwest of Tokyo, on March 15, 2022. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is making an official visit to the United States this week. He will hold a summit with President Joe Biden that's meant to achieve a major upgrading of their defense alliance.(AP Photo/Eugene Hoshiko, File)

FILE - U.S. President Joe Biden, left, shakes hands with Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida during a joint news conference with South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, not visible, on Aug. 18, 2023, at Camp David, the presidential retreat, near Thurmont, Md. Prime Minister Kishida is making an official visit to the United States this week. He will hold a summit with President Biden that's meant to achieve a major upgrading of their defense alliance.(AP Photo/Andrew Harnik, File)

FILE - This photo combination shows U.S. President Joe Biden, left, taken in Washington on April 3, 2024, and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, taken in Tokyo on March 28, 2024. Prime Minister Kishida is making an official visit to the United States this week. He will hold a summit with President Biden that's meant to achieve a major upgrading of their defense alliance.(AP Photo/File)

LONDON (AP) — Millions of voters in England and Wales will cast their ballots on Thursday in an array of local elections that will be the last big test before a U.K. general election that all indicators show will see the Conservative Party ousted from power after 14 years.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will hope he can point to successes, notably in a couple of key mayoral races, to douse talk that the Conservative Party will change leader again before the United Kingdom's main election, which could take place as soon as next month.

On the other hand, Labour Party leader Keir Starmer will hope Thursday's local elections confirm what opinion polls have shown for two years — that Labour is on course for power for the first time since 2010.

“The national context going into these local elections is very good for Labour and very bad for the Conservatives,” said Rob Ford, professor of politics at the University of Manchester.

As is often the case in British local elections, the run-up is about expectation management, so any outperformance can be painted as a success.

That's certainly the case with the Conservatives, who are widely predicted to lose around half of the 1,000 seats they are contesting. They have pointed out, for example, that the equivalent elections were held in 2021 when the government of then Prime Minister Boris Johnson was riding high following the rollout of the coronavirus vaccines.

Thursday's elections are important in themselves — voters decide who will run many aspects of their daily lives, such as bin collections, the state of the roads and local crime prevention measures, for the coming years.

But with a general election looming, they will be viewed through a national prism.

Here are five things to know:

Voters in England and Wales will go to the polls for local, mayoral, and police and crime commissioner elections.

The voting is the final test of public opinion before the general election, which has to take place by January 2025 but which Sunak, who has the power to decide on the date, has indicated will be in the second half of 2024.

As well as a number of mayoral votes, including in London where Sadiq Khan is expected to win a third term, there are more than 100 elections to local councils and nearly 40 for local police and crime commissioners.

There's also a special parliamentary election in Blackpool South, a long-time Labour seat that went Conservative in the last election in 2019, when Johnson won a big victory. The results will be announced in coming days. London's mayoral result isn't due until Saturday.

No elections are taking place in Scotland or Northern Ireland, the other constituent nations of the U.K.

Potentially his job. Sunak replaced Liz Truss, who quit after 45 days following a budget of unfunded tax cuts that roiled financial markets and sent borrowing costs for homeowners surging.

Sunak, who warned about the economic implications of Truss' plan, was supposed to be a steady hand after taking the top job in October 2022. If opinion polls are right, he's not improved the Conservatives' ratings, which had even prior to Truss, been battered by the circus surrounding Johnson, who was ousted over a series of ethics scandals.

With the Conservatives seemingly headed for one of their biggest-ever electoral defeats, there's mounting speculation Sunak may face a leadership battle if Thursday's elections are really bad.

Key to his survival could be the mayoral elections in the West Midlands and Tees Valley in the northeast of England. Should Conservative mayors Andy Street and Ben Houchen hold on, he may win some respite from restive lawmakers in his party. Should both lose, he may face trouble.

In historical terms, Labour has a mountain to climb if it's going to form the next government.

It's performance in 2019 was its worst since 1935. Starmer has tried to bring the party back to the center of British politics after the five-year leadership of veteran left-winger Jeremy Corbyn.

Starmer's cautious approach has clearly worked if opinion polls are anything to go by. But it's fair to say that enthusiasm levels are far lower than those that heralded the arrival of Tony Blair ahead of the 1997 general election.

That may be partly due to the more challenging economic backdrop, but Starmer, formerly a human rights lawyer, lacks the razzmatazz of his predecessor. Even so, Starmer will hope Labour notches up big wins in areas it lost under Corbyn, in the north of England and in the Midlands.

One point of concern is how many traditionally Labour supporters in Muslim communities fail to vote in protest at the party's stance over the conflict in Gaza.

One of the contributing factors to Blair's landslide victory in 1997 came from so-called tactical voting, whereby some voters put aside their preferred political party and back whoever they think is most likely to defeat the Conservative candidate.

Tactical voting has reemerged in recent years and could become key in the general election. It usually involves voters sympathetic to Labour in parts of the country, such as southwest England, backing the much-smaller Liberal Democrats and Liberal Democrat supporters loaning votes to Labour in the Midlands and the north of England.

Conservative lawmakers across the U.K., even in supposedly safe seats, will be hugely concerned if voters think more tactically.

The Conservatives don't just face a challenge from the left. Reform UK is trying to outflank it from the right.

Though it is standing in a few seats, Conservatives will worry that support for the party will see Labour and others come through the middle.

Reform UK, which claims to be tougher on issues such as immigration and on Brexit, has said it won't stand aside to give incumbent Conservative lawmakers an easier chance at the general election, as its former incarnation, The Brexit Party, did in 2019. The Blackpool South special election will be particularly interesting on that front.

FILE - In this Thursday, Dec. 12, 2019 file photo, a polling station signpost lies on the pavement, in Twickenham, England. Millions of voters in England and Wales will cast their ballots in an array of local elections. The voting on Thursday will be the last big test before a U.K. general election that all indicators show will see the Conservative Party ousted from power after 14 years. (AP Photo/Frank Augstein, File)