Polish opponents of abortion march against recent steps to liberalize strict law

WARSAW, Poland (AP) —

Thousands of Polish opponents of abortion marched in Warsaw on Sunday to protest recent steps by the new government to liberalize the predominantly Catholic nation’s strict laws and allow termination of pregnancy until the 12th week.

Many participants in the downtown march were pushing prams with children, while others were carrying white-and-red national flags or posters representing a fetus in the womb.

Poland’s Catholic Church has called for Sunday to be a day of prayer “in defense of conceived life” and has supported the march, organized by an anti-abortion movement.

“In the face of promotion of abortion in recent months, the march will be a rare occasion to show our support for the protection of human life from conception to natural death,” a federation of anti-abortion movements said in a statement.

They were referring to an ongoing public debate surrounding the steps that the 4-month-old government of Prime Minster Donald Tusk is taking to relax the strict law brought in by its conservative predecessor.

Last week, Poland’s parliament, which is dominated by the liberal and pro-European Union ruling coalition, voted to approve further detailed work on four proposals to lift the near-ban on abortions.

The procedure, which could take weeks or even months, is expected to be eventually rejected by conservative President Andrzej Duda, whose term runs for another year. Last month Duda vetoed a draft law that would have made the morning-after pill available over the counter from the age of 15.

A nation of some 38 million, Poland is seeking ways to boost the birth rate, which is currently at some 1.2 per woman — among the lowest in the European Union. Poland's society is aging and shrinking, facts that the previous right-wing government used among its arguments for toughening the abortion law.

Currently, abortions are only allowed in cases of rape or incest or if the woman’s life or health is at risk. According to the Health Ministry, 161 abortions were performed in Polish hospitals in 2022. However, abortion advocates estimate that some 120,000 women in Poland have abortions each year, mostly by secretly obtaining pills from abroad.

Women attempting to abort themselves are not penalized, but anyone assisting them can face up to three years in prison. Reproductive rights advocates say the result is that doctors turn women away even in permitted cases for fear of legal consequences for themselves.

One of the four proposals being processed in parliament would decriminalize assisting a woman to have an abortion. Another one, put forward by a party whose leaders are openly Catholic, would keep a ban in most cases but would allow abortions in cases of fetal defects — a right that was eliminated by a 2020 court ruling. The two others aim to permit abortion through the 12th week.

Anti-abortion demonstrators march in support of every conceived life and against steps taken by the new government to liberalize Poland's strict law and allow termination of pregnancy until the 12th week, in Warsaw, Poland, on Sunday, April 14, 2024. Last week, Poland's parliament, which is dominated by the liberal and pro-European Union ruling coalition, voted to approve further detailed work on four proposals to lift the near-ban on abortions. (AP Photo/Czarek Sokolowski)

Anti-abortion demonstrators march in support of every conceived life and against steps taken by the new government to liberalize Poland's strict law and allow termination of pregnancy until the 12th week, in Warsaw, Poland, on Sunday, April 14, 2024. Last week, Poland's parliament, which is dominated by the liberal and pro-European Union ruling coalition, voted to approve further detailed work on four proposals to lift the near-ban on abortions. (AP Photo/Czarek Sokolowski)

Anti-abortion demonstrators march in support of every conceived life and against steps taken by the new government to liberalize Poland's strict law and allow termination of pregnancy until the 12th week, in Warsaw, Poland, on Sunday, April 14, 2024. Last week, Poland's parliament, which is dominated by the liberal and pro-European Union ruling coalition, voted to approve further detailed work on four proposals to lift the near-ban on abortions. (AP Photo/Czarek Sokolowski)

Anti-abortion demonstrators march in support of every conceived life and against steps taken by the new government to liberalize Poland's strict law and allow termination of pregnancy until the 12th week, in Warsaw, Poland, on Sunday, April 14, 2024. Last week, Poland's parliament, which is dominated by the liberal and pro-European Union ruling coalition, voted to approve further detailed work on four proposals to lift the near-ban on abortions. (AP Photo/Czarek Sokolowski)

Opponents of abortion walk in a march in support of every conceived life and against steps taken by the new government to liberalize Poland's strict law and allow termination of pregnancy until the 12th week, in Warsaw, Poland, on Sunday, April 14, 2024. Last week, Poland's parliament, which is dominated by the liberal and pro-European Union ruling coalition, voted to approve further detailed work on four proposals to lift the near-ban on abortions. (AP Photo/Czarek Sokolowski)

Anti-abortion demonstrators march in support of every conceived life and against steps taken by the new government to liberalize Poland's strict law and allow termination of pregnancy until the 12th week, in Warsaw, Poland, on Sunday, April 14, 2024. Last week, Poland's parliament, which is dominated by the liberal and pro-European Union ruling coalition, voted to approve further detailed work on four proposals to lift the near-ban on abortions. (AP Photo/Czarek Sokolowski)

Anti-abortion demonstrators march in support of every conceived life and against steps taken by the new government to liberalize Poland's strict law and allow termination of pregnancy until the 12th week, in Warsaw, Poland, on Sunday, April 14, 2024. Last week, Poland's parliament, which is dominated by the liberal and pro-European Union ruling coalition, voted to approve further detailed work on four proposals to lift the near-ban on abortions. (AP Photo/Czarek Sokolowski)

Anti-abortion demonstrators march in support of every conceived life and against steps taken by the new government to liberalize Poland's strict law and allow termination of pregnancy until the 12th week, in Warsaw, Poland, on Sunday, April 14, 2024. Last week, Poland's parliament, which is dominated by the liberal and pro-European Union ruling coalition, voted to approve further detailed work on four proposals to lift the near-ban on abortions. (AP Photo/Czarek Sokolowski)

Anti-abortion demonstrators march in support of every conceived life and against steps taken by the new government to liberalize Poland's strict law and allow termination of pregnancy until the 12th week, in Warsaw, Poland, on Sunday, April 14, 2024. Last week, Poland's parliament, which is dominated by the liberal and pro-European Union ruling coalition, voted to approve further detailed work on four proposals to lift the near-ban on abortions. (AP Photo/Czarek Sokolowski)

LONDON (AP) — Millions of voters in England and Wales will cast their ballots on Thursday in an array of local elections that will be the last big test before a U.K. general election that all indicators show will see the Conservative Party ousted from power after 14 years.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will hope he can point to successes, notably in a couple of key mayoral races, to douse talk that the Conservative Party will change leader again before the United Kingdom's main election, which could take place as soon as next month.

On the other hand, Labour Party leader Keir Starmer will hope Thursday's local elections confirm what opinion polls have shown for two years — that Labour is on course for power for the first time since 2010.

“The national context going into these local elections is very good for Labour and very bad for the Conservatives,” said Rob Ford, professor of politics at the University of Manchester.

As is often the case in British local elections, the run-up is about expectation management, so any outperformance can be painted as a success.

That's certainly the case with the Conservatives, who are widely predicted to lose around half of the 1,000 seats they are contesting. They have pointed out, for example, that the equivalent elections were held in 2021 when the government of then Prime Minister Boris Johnson was riding high following the rollout of the coronavirus vaccines.

Thursday's elections are important in themselves — voters decide who will run many aspects of their daily lives, such as garbage collection, the state of the roads and local crime prevention measures in the coming years.

But with a general election looming, they will be viewed through a national prism.

Here are five things to know:

Voters in England and Wales will go to the polls for local, mayoral, and police and crime commissioner elections.

The voting is the final test of public opinion before the general election, which has to take place by January 2025 but which Sunak, who has the power to decide on the date, has indicated will be in the second half of 2024.

As well as a number of mayoral votes, including in London where Sadiq Khan is expected to win a third term, there are more than 100 elections to local councils and nearly 40 for local police and crime commissioners.

There's also a special parliamentary election in Blackpool South, a long-time Labour seat that went Conservative in the last election in 2019, when Johnson won a big victory. The results will be announced in coming days. London's mayoral result isn't due until Saturday.

No elections are taking place in Scotland or Northern Ireland, the other constituent nations of the U.K.

Potentially his job. Sunak replaced Liz Truss, who quit after 45 days following a budget of unfunded tax cuts that roiled financial markets and sent borrowing costs for homeowners surging.

Sunak, who warned about the economic implications of Truss' plan, was supposed to be a steady hand after taking the top job in October 2022. If opinion polls are right, he's not improved the Conservatives' ratings, which had even prior to Truss, been battered by the circus surrounding Johnson, who was ousted over a series of ethics scandals.

With the Conservatives seemingly headed for one of their biggest-ever electoral defeats, there's mounting speculation Sunak may face a leadership battle if Thursday's elections are really bad.

Key to his survival could be the mayoral elections in the West Midlands and Tees Valley in the northeast of England. Should Conservative mayors Andy Street and Ben Houchen hold on, he may win some respite from restive lawmakers in his party. Should both lose, he may face trouble.

In historical terms, Labour has a mountain to climb if it's going to form the next government.

It's performance in 2019 was its worst since 1935. Starmer has tried to bring the party back to the center of British politics after the five-year leadership of veteran left-winger Jeremy Corbyn.

Starmer's cautious approach has clearly worked if opinion polls are anything to go by. But it's fair to say that enthusiasm levels are far lower than those that heralded the arrival of Tony Blair ahead of the 1997 general election.

That may be partly due to the more challenging economic backdrop, but Starmer, formerly a human rights lawyer, lacks the razzmatazz of his predecessor. Even so, Starmer will hope Labour notches up big wins in areas it lost under Corbyn, in the north of England and in the Midlands.

One point of concern is how many traditionally Labour supporters in Muslim communities fail to vote in protest at the party's stance over the conflict in Gaza.

One of the contributing factors to Blair's landslide victory in 1997 came from so-called tactical voting, whereby some voters put aside their preferred political party and back whoever they think is most likely to defeat the Conservative candidate.

Tactical voting has reemerged in recent years and could become key in the general election. It usually involves voters sympathetic to Labour in parts of the country, such as southwest England, backing the much-smaller Liberal Democrats and Liberal Democrat supporters loaning votes to Labour in the Midlands and the north of England.

Conservative lawmakers across the U.K., even in supposedly safe seats, will be hugely concerned if voters think more tactically.

The Conservatives don't just face a challenge from the left. Reform UK is trying to outflank it from the right.

Though it is standing in a few seats, Conservatives will worry that support for the party will see Labour and others come through the middle.

Reform UK, which claims to be tougher on issues such as immigration and on Brexit, has said it won't stand aside to give incumbent Conservative lawmakers an easier chance at the general election, as its former incarnation, The Brexit Party, did in 2019. The Blackpool South special election will be particularly interesting on that front.

London Mayoral Labour Party candidate Sadiq Khan and his wife Saadiya Ahmed pose for the media as they arrive to vote in London, Thursday, May 2, 2024. Khan, is seeking re-election, and standing against 12 other candidates for the post of Mayor of London. There are other Mayoral elections in English cities and as well as local council elections. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung)

London Mayoral Labour Party candidate Sadiq Khan and his wife Saadiya Ahmed with their dog Luna, pose for the media as they arrive to vote in London, Thursday, May 2, 2024. Khan, is seeking re-election, and standing against 12 other candidates for the post of Mayor of London. There are other Mayoral elections in English cities and as well as local council elections. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung)

London Mayoral Labour Party candidate Sadiq Khan pats his dog Luna as they pose for the media he arrives to vote in London, Thursday, May 2, 2024. Khan, is seeking re-election, and standing against 12 other candidates for the post of Mayor of London. There are other Mayoral elections in English cities and as well as local council elections. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung)

London Mayoral Labour Party candidate Sadiq Khan and his wife Saadiya Ahmed with their dog Luna pose for the media as they arrive to vote in London, Thursday, May 2, 2024. Khan, is seeking re-election, and standing against 12 other candidates for the post of Mayor of London. There are other Mayoral elections in English cities and as well as local council elections. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung)

Polling station officials put out a sign as it opens for people to vote in London, Thursday, May 2, 2024. London Mayor Sadiq Khan, is seeking re-election, and standing against 12 other candidates for the post of Mayor of London. There are other Mayoral elections in English cities and as well as local council elections. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung)

London Mayoral Labour Party candidate Sadiq Khan and his wife Saadiya Ahmed pose for the media as they arrive to vote in London, Thursday, May 2, 2024. Khan, is seeking re-election, and standing against 12 other candidates for the post of Mayor of London. There are other Mayoral elections in English cities and as well as local council elections. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung)

A voter waits with his dog outside a polling station as it opens for people to vote in London, Thursday, May 2, 2024. London Mayor Sadiq Khan, is seeking re-election, and standing against 12 other candidates for the post of Mayor of London. There are other Mayoral elections in English cities and as well as local council elections. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung)

London Mayoral Labour Party candidate Sadiq Khan and his wife Saadiya Ahmed pose for the media as they arrive to vote in London, Thursday, May 2, 2024. Khan, is seeking re-election, and standing against 12 other candidates for the post of Mayor of London. There are other Mayoral elections in English cities and as well as local council elections. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung)

Voters leave a polling station at St Alban's Church, south London, after casting their votes in the local and London Mayoral election Thursday, May 2, 2024. (Yui Mok/PA via AP)

FILE - In this Thursday, Dec. 12, 2019 file photo, a polling station signpost lies on the pavement, in Twickenham, England. Millions of voters in England and Wales will cast their ballots in an array of local elections. The voting on Thursday will be the last big test before a U.K. general election that all indicators show will see the Conservative Party ousted from power after 14 years. (AP Photo/Frank Augstein, File)