WASHINGTON (AP) — The first criminal trial facing former President Donald Trump is also the one in which Americans are least convinced he committed a crime, a new AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll finds.
Only about one-third of U.S. adults say Trump did something illegal in the hush money case for which jury selection began Monday, while close to half think he did something illegal in the other three criminal cases pending against him. And they’re fairly skeptical that Trump is getting a fair shake from the prosecutors in the case — or that the judge and jurors can be impartial in cases involving him.
Still, half of Americans would consider Trump unfit to serve as president if he is convicted of falsifying business documents to cover up hush money payments to a woman who said he had a sexual encounter with her.
While a New York jury will decide whether to convict Trump of felony charges, public opinion of the trial proceedings could hurt him politically. The poll suggests a conviction could hurt Trump’s campaign. Trump enters a rematch with President Joe Biden as the first presumptive nominee of a major party — and the first former president — to be under indictment. A verdict is expected in roughly six weeks, well before the Republican National Convention, at which he will accept the GOP nomination.
Trump has made the prosecutions against him a centerpiece of his campaign and argued without evidence that Biden, a Democrat, engineered the cases. That argument helped him consolidate GOP support during the Republican primary, but a conviction might influence how many Americans — including independent voters and people long skeptical of Trump — perceive his candidacy.
“Any conviction should disqualify him,” said Callum Schlumpf, a 31-year-old engineering student and political independent from Clifton, Texas. “It sets a bad example to the rest of the world. I think it misrepresents us, as a country, as to what we believe is important and virtuous.”
Yet, a cloud of doubt hangs over all the proceedings. Only about 3 in 10 Americans feel that any of the prosecutors who have brought charges against Trump are treating the former president fairly. And only about 2 in 10 Americans are extremely or very confident that the judges and jurors in the cases against him can be fair and impartial.
“It’s very obvious political persecution,” said Christopher Ruff, a 46-year-old political independent and museum curator from Sanford, North Carolina. “I’m no fan of Trump in any way, shape or form. Didn’t vote for him, never will. But it’s obviously all political.”
Consistent with AP-NORC polls conducted over the past year, the new poll found that about half of Americans say Trump did something illegal regarding the classified documents found at his Florida home, and a similar share think he did something illegal regarding his alleged attempt to interfere in Georgia’s vote count in the 2020 presidential election. The poll also found that nearly half of Americans believe he did something illegal related to his effort to overturn the results of the 2020 election.
Prosecutors in New York will argue that Trump falsified his company's internal records to hide the true nature of a payment to his former lawyer Michael Cohen. Cohen alleges he was directed by Trump to pay adult film actor Stormy Daniels $130,000 one month before the 2016 election to silence her claims about an extramarital sexual encounter with Trump.
Trump has pleaded not guilty to the 34-count indictment and denied any sexual encounter with Daniels.
The poll found that 35% of Americans say Trump has done something illegal with regard to the hush money allegations. Slightly fewer, about 3 in 10, think he did something unethical without breaking the law. Fourteen percent think he did nothing wrong at all. Those numbers haven’t shifted meaningfully in the year since he was first charged in the case.
Republicans are much less likely than Democrats and independents to say Trump committed a crime in the hush money case.
“He's done nothing wrong,” said Louie Tsonos, a 43-year-old sales representative and Republican from Carleton, Michigan, a suburb of Detroit. “Because Trump has a lot of money and fame, they want to destroy his reputation. Or at least they are trying to.”
Fewer than one in 10 Republicans say Trump did something illegal in the case, while 4 in 10 Republicans think he did something unethical but did not break the law. About 3 in 10 Republicans, like Tsonos, say he did nothing wrong.
By contrast, about 6 in 10 Democrats and roughly 3 in 10 independents believe he did something illegal.
Monica Brown, a Democrat from Knoxville, Tennessee, thinks Trump did something unethical, though not illegal, in the New York criminal case under way. But a conviction would ruin his credibility to serve as president, she said.
"I don’t believe any president – whether it’s Donald Trump or anyone else – should have a criminal conviction on his record," said Brown, a 60-year-old veterinary technician and social worker. “Even if it’s related to something like hush money, what respect are they going to get from anyone? Citizens of the country or world leaders, they aren’t going to respect you.”
Nearly 6 in 10 Republicans say they would consider Trump fit to be president even if he were to be convicted of falsifying business documents in the hush money case. About 8 in 10 Democrats say Trump would not be fit to serve in the event of a conviction. About half of independents think he would be unfit to serve, with 22% saying he would be fit and 30% saying they didn't know enough to say.
“I don't think any of that stuff has any relevance to his ability to lead this country,” said Jennifer Solich, a Republican from York, Pennsylvania, and retired nuclear engineer who believes Trump would be fit to serve if convicted in the New York case. “There may be some unethical aspects to it. I just think it's more trivial than what we're facing as a nation.”
Beaumont reported from Des Moines, Iowa.
The poll of 1,204 adults was conducted April 4-8, 2024, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.
FILE - Former President Donald Trump sits in Manhattan criminal court with his legal team in New York, April 15, 2024. A new AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll found that only about one-third of U.S. adults think Trump did something illegal in the hush money case for which jury selection began Monday, while close to half think he did something illegal in the other three criminal cases pending against him. Still, about half of Americans would consider Trump unfit to serve as president if he is convicted. (Jabin Botsford/Pool Photo via AP)
CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) — Three officers on a U.S. Marshals Task Force serving a warrant for a felon wanted for possessing a firearm were killed and five other officers were wounded in a shootout Monday at a North Carolina home, police said.
Shots were fired at the officers by the wanted suspect as they approached the suburban home in Charlotte and they killed him in the front yard, Charlotte-Mecklenburg Police Chief Johnny Jennings said at a news conference.
A second person then fired on officers from inside the home where a high-powered rifle was found, Jennings added.
A woman and a 17-year-old male were found in the home after a three-hour standoff that included armored vehicles crashing into the suburban home in a tree-lined neighborhood and tearing off doorways and windows. The two are being questioned, Jennings said.
“Today we lost some heroes who were out simply trying to keep our community safe,” Jennings said.
The Marshal’s Service confirmed one of its agents was killed and did not release a name. Two officers from the state Department of Adult Correction also were killed, North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper said.
One other member of the task force, which is made up of federal agents and other officers from across the region was injured.
Four Charlotte-Mecklenburg officers who responded to the scene were also shot while trying to rescue the wounded officers. One of them remains in critical condition, Jennings said.
Neighbors said gunfire continued for several minutes.
WSOC-TV said their helicopter captured an armored vehicle driving through yards and knocking over recycling bins before officers removed a person with blood on their shirt who was then loaded into an ambulance.
After the home was cleared, the helicopter pilot said he couldn't show the front lawn of the home because the scene was too graphic and disturbing.
Several armored vehicles were on nearby lawns and driveways of the older suburban neighborhood of a tree-lined street with brick homes. A shattered window, blinds torn, was in a street and a entire doorway was leaning against of one of the vehicles.
“A lot of the questions that need to be answered, we don’t even know what those questions are now," Jennings said less than four hours after the shooting. “We have to get a full understanding of why this occurred and also uphold the integrity of the investigation.”
Many roads in the area including Interstate 77 were closed so ambulances could get to hospitals faster. TV footage showed ambulances speeding to hospitals escorted by vehicles both in front and behind with their sirens wailing.
Rissa Reign was cleaning her house when she heard the first shots ring out. There was a pause, then a second set of shots and then a third. She stepped outside.
“When we came outside, there were no cops at all, then cops started rushing, rushing, rushing, rushing in,” she said, adding armored SWAT trucks quickly followed and they "were going over the grass, everything, and they started shooting again.”
Kiashia Williams was driving home when she heard several shots separated by a few seconds.
“Ambulances, police and everything everywhere just started rushing down,” said Williams as she waited in her car to be allowed to go home and check on her daughter, who broadcast what she saw on social media.
Four Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools were placed on lockdown around afternoon dismissal, but that was lifted in the late afternoon, the district said.
Police urged people to stay away from the neighborhood and asked residents to remain inside their homes until the all clear was given.
The last marshal shot and killed in the line of duty was in November 2018. Chase White was shot in Tucson, Arizona, by a man wanted for stalking local law enforcement officers, the agency said.
The Carolinas Regional Fugitive Task Force is headquartered in Charlotte with 70 federal, state and local agencies. Fugitive task forces are collaborations between agencies to find and arrest suspects in crimes.
In six years, the regional task force has apprehend more than 8,900 fugitives, the U.S. Marshals Service said on its website.
In March 2007, two Charlotte-Mecklenburg Police officers were killed responding to a domestic dispute by someone not directly involved in the fight. Demeatrius Antonio Montgomery is serving a life sentence in the killings of officers Jeffrey Shelton and Sean Clark.
Contributing to this report were Jeffrey Collins in Columbia, South Carolina; Rebecca Reynolds in Louisville, Kentucky; and Sarah Brumfield in Silver Spring, Maryland.
Charlotte Mecklenburg Police Chief Johnny Jennings, center, leaves the scene where multiple law enforcement officers were shot on Galway Drive in Charlotte, N.C. on Monday, April 29, 2024. Several officers on a U.S. Marshals Task Force serving a warrant for a felon wanted for possessing a firearm were killed and other officers were wounded in a shootout Monday in a North Carolina, home, police said. (Khadejeh Nikouyeh/The Charlotte Observer via AP)
Members of FBI talk with each other at the scene of a shooting on Galway Drive in Charlotte, N.C., on Monday, April 29, 2024, Multiple law enforcement officers were shot while serving a warrant for a felon wanted for possessing a firearm. (Khadejeh Nikouyeh/The Charlotte Observer via AP)
A law officer walks away from the scene of a shooting where multiple law enforcement officers were shot while serving a warrant for a felon wanted for possessing a firearm in Charlotte, N.C., on Monday, April 29, 2024. (Khadejeh Nikouyeh/The Charlotte Observer via AP)
Charlotte-Mecklenburg Police Chief Johnny Jennings speaks at a press conference after multiple officers were shot while serving a warrant in Charlotte, N.C., Monday, April 29, 2024. (AP Photo/Nell Redmond)
Charlotte-Mecklenburg Police Chief Johnny Jennings speaks at a press conference regarding an event where several officers on a task force trying to serve a warrant were shot in Charlotte, N.C., Monday, April 29, 2024. (AP Photo/Nell Redmond)
Charlotte Mayor Vi Lyles gets choked up as she speaks at a press conference regarding a shooting in Charlotte, N.C., Monday, April 29, 2024. Several officers on a U.S. Marshals Task Force serving a warrant for a felon wanted for possessing a firearm were killed and other officers were wounded in a shootout Monday in North Carolina, home, police said. (AP Photo/Nell Redmond)
Charlotte fire department captain Brian Cunningham, right, hugs Charlotte-Mecklenburg Police Chief Johnny Jennings at a press conference regarding a shooting in Charlotte, N.C., Monday, April 29, 2024. Several officers on a U.S. Marshals Task Force serving a warrant for a felon wanted for possessing a firearm were killed and other officers were wounded in a shootout Monday in North Carolina, home, police said. (AP Photo/Nell Redmond)
A Charlotte Mecklenburg police officer walks in the neighborhood where several officers on a task force trying to serve a warrant were shot in Charlotte, N.C., Monday, April 29, 2024. (AP Photo/Nell Redmond)
A Charlotte neighborhood where an officer-involved shooting took place in Charlotte, N.C., Monday, April 29, 2024. The Charlotte-Mecklenburg Police Department says officers from the U.S. Marshals Task Force were carrying out an investigation Monday afternoon in a suburban neighborhood when they came under gunfire. (AP Photo/Nell Redmond)
A Charlotte Mecklenburg police officer walks in the neighborhood where several officers on a task force trying to serve a warrant were shot in Charlotte, N.C., Monday, April 29, 2024. (AP Photo/Nell Redmond)
University of South Florida police officers take pro Palestinian protesters into custody during a march on the campus Monday, April 29, 2024 in Tampa. (Chris Urso/Tampa Bay Times via AP)
A Charlotte Mecklenburg police officer walks carrying a gun in the neighborhood where a shooting took place in Charlotte, N.C., Monday, April 29, 2024. The Charlotte-Mecklenburg Police Department says officers from the U.S. Marshals Task Force were carrying out an investigation Monday afternoon in a suburban neighborhood when they came under gunfire. (AP Photo/Nell Redmond)
A Charlotte Mecklenburg police officer walks in the neighborhood where a shooting took place in Charlotte, N.C., Monday, April 29, 2024. The Charlotte-Mecklenburg Police Department says officers from the U.S. Marshals Task Force were carrying out an investigation Monday afternoon in a suburban neighborhood when they came under gunfire. (AP Photo/Nell Redmond)
A Charlotte Mecklenburg police officer walks carrying a gun in the neighborhood where a shooting took place in Charlotte, N.C., Monday, April 29, 2024. The Charlotte-Mecklenburg Police Department says officers from the U.S. Marshals Task Force were carrying out an investigation Monday afternoon in a suburban neighborhood when they came under gunfire. (AP Photo/Nell Redmond)
A Charlotte Mecklenburg Police Department officer walks carrying a gun in the neighborhood where a shooting took place in Charlotte, N.C., Monday, April 29, 2024. CMPD says officers from the U.S. Marshals Task Force were carrying out an investigation Monday afternoon in a suburban neighborhood when they came under gunfire. (AP Photo/Nell Redmond)
Multiple law enforcement vehicles respond in the neighborhood where several officers on a task force trying to serve a warrant were shot in Charlotte, N.C., Monday, April 29, 2024. (Melissa Melvin-Rodriguez/The Charlotte Observer via AP)
Multiple law enforcement vehicles respond in the neighborhood where several officers on a task force trying to serve a warrant were shot in Charlotte, N.C., Monday, April 29, 2024. (Khadejeh Nikouyeh/The Charlotte Observer via AP)
A Charlotte Mecklenburg police officer carries a gun as he walks in the neighborhood where an officer-involved shooting took place in Charlotte, N.C., Monday, April 29, 2024. Police in North Carolina say numerous law enforcement officers conducting a task force operation have been struck by gunfire in Charlotte. (AP Photo/Nell Redmond)
Charlotte Mecklenburg Police Department is responding to shots fired on Galway Drive in Charlotte, N.C., Monday, April 29, 2024. Officers from the U.S. Marshals Task Force were conducting an investigation in a suburban neighborhood when they were fired upon, the CMPD said in a post on X, formerly Twitter. (Melissa Rodriguez/The Charlotte Observer via AP)
Police work at the scene of a shooting Monday, April 29, 2024, in east Charlotte, N.C. Officers from the U.S. Marshals Task Force were conducting an investigation in a suburban neighborhood when they were fired upon, the CMPD said in a post on X. (Khadejeh Nikouyeh/The Charlotte Observer via AP)
Multiple law enforcement officers were shot Monday, April 29, 2024, in east Charlotte, N.C., the Charlotte Mecklenburg Police Department said. Officers from the U.S. Marshals Task Force were conducting an investigation in a suburban neighborhood when they were fired upon, the CMPD said in a post on X, formerly Twitter. (Khadejeh Nikouyeh/The Charlotte Observer via AP)
