What's causing the catastrophic rainfall in Kenya?

NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — The torrential rains and deadly floods that have hit Kenya since March have been some of the most catastrophic in the country in recent years.

At least 169 people have died due to the heavy rains, with at least 91 missing, according to the latest government figures.

In the most tragic single event, at least 48 people were killed on Monday after water blew through a blocked river tunnel under a railway line in southwestern Kenya, causing a flash flood. The rain has displaced more than 190,000 people and damaged roads and other infrastructure.

The devastating rains are a result of a mix of factors, including the country's seasonal weather patterns, human-caused climate change as well as natural weather phenomena.

Here’s how they combined to create the deadly deluge.

WHAT IS KENYA'S “LONG RAINS” SEASON?

Kenya and some other parts of eastern Africa have two main rainfall periods: the “long rains” season of March to May, and the “short rains” season of October to December.

The “long rains” season is when most of the country’s average annual rainfall occurs. It's often characterized by torrential rains, and sometimes goes up to June.

In its forecast for this year’s “long rains” season, the Kenya Meteorological Department predicted above-average rainfall in many parts of the country, with occasional storms in some. It also warned of flash floods, landslides, mudslides and other impacts.

Last year's "short rains" season was characterized by severe storms in many parts of the country, particularly in November. Lamu, Mombasa and Garissa counties received nearly three times their long-term average rainfall, according to the meteorological department.

WHY IS THE RAIN SO INTENSE THIS TIME?

The frequency, patterns and intensity of rainfall in Kenya are influenced by naturally occurring climate systems like the Indian Ocean Dipole.

The Indian Ocean Dipole is a swinging of sea surface temperatures that makes the western Indian Ocean warmer than average then colder than average than those of the eastern Indian Ocean. It has positive, neutral and negative phases.

The positive phase causes heavy rainfall in areas west of the Indian Ocean, such as Kenya, and droughts in Indonesia and Australia.

While many people have linked the current floods to the naturally occurring El Nino weather phenomenon, research shows that the climate event has little influence on rainfall over East Africa during the “long rains” season, said Joyce Kimutai, research associate at Imperial College London.

El Nino is the warming of the ocean over the Pacific Ocean, which changes the routes for storms and it can cause heavy rainfall in some parts of the world and droughts in others.

But in Kenya's case, it's highly likely that the positive Indian Ocean Dipole and climate change explain the ongoing flood-inducing rainfall, she said.

Warmer oceans caused by the hotter atmosphere increase evaporation, and air holding more moisture can produce more intense rainfall.

In an analysis in December last year, Kimutai and colleagues from World Weather Attribution, a group of scientists that analyze whether climate change played a role in extreme weather, found that human-caused climate change had made last year’s “short rains” season in Kenya and other parts of eastern Africa up to two times more intense.

WHEN WILL THE “LONG RAINS” END?

It's become difficult to predict long-term weather in Kenya in recent years, as the onset and duration of dry and wet seasons increasingly change.

The Kenya Meteorological Department expects the “long rains” season to continue into June.

In its latest seven-day weather forecast, which it released on Monday, the department said it expects rainfall to continue in several parts of the country, with heavy downpour likely to occur in six regions, as well as flooding in low-lying areas and landslides in steep slopes.

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FILE - A family uses a boat after fleeing floodwaters that wreaked havoc in the Githurai area of Nairobi, Kenya, April 24, 2024. (AP Photo/Patrick Ngugi, File)

FILE - Residents gather around the covered dead body of a woman found in a house after heavy rain in the Mathare area of Nairobi, Kenya, April 24, 2024. (AP Photo/Brian Inganga)

FILE - A woman is rescued from her flooded house by Red Cross workers in Githurai area of Nairobi, Kenya, April 24, 2024. (AP Photo/Edaward Odero, File)

FILE - Kenyan Red Cross personnel and volunteers conduct search and rescue missions, around houses submerged by flood water in Machakos county, Kenya, April 22, 2024. (AP Photo/Brian Inganga, File)

FILE - Floodwaters are visible in Ombaka Village, Kisumu, Kenya, April 17, 2024. (AP Photo/Brian Ongoro, File)

FILE - A displaced woman sits on a couch outside her flooded house, after heavy rain in the Mathare area of Nairobi, Kenya, April 24, 2024. (AP Photo/Brian Inganga, File)

FILE - Residents rescue a woman who was caught during heavy rain in the Mathare area of Nairobi, Kenya, April 24, 2024. (AP Photo/Andrew Kasuku, File)

FILE - Children flee floodwaters that wreaked havoc at Mororo, border of Tana River and Garissa counties, Kenya, April 28, 2024. (AP Photo/Andrew Kasuku, File)

CAIRO (AP) — The United Nations said Tuesday it suspended food distribution in the southern Gaza city of Rafah due to lack of supplies and insecurity. It also said no aid trucks entered in the past two days via a floating pier set up by the U.S. for sea deliveries.

The U.N. has not specified how many people have stayed in Rafah since the Israeli military began its intensified assault there two weeks ago, but apparently several hundred thousand people remain. The World Food Program said it was also running out of food for central Gaza, where hundreds of thousands of Palestinians fleeing Rafah have sought shelter in a chaotic exodus, setting up new tent camps or crowding into areas already devastated by previous Israeli offensives.

Abeer Etefa, a spokesperson for the U.N’s World Food Program, warned that “humanitarian operations in Gaza are near collapse.” If food and other supplies don’t resume entering Gaza “in massive quantities, famine-like conditions will spread,” she said.

The warning came as Israel seeks to contain the fallout from a request by the chief prosecutor of the world’s top war crimes court for arrest warrants for Israeli and Hamas leaders, a move supported by three European countries, including key ally France.

The prosecutor at the International Criminal Court cited Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant for alleged "use of starvation as a method of warfare,” a charge they and other Israeli officials angrily deny. The prosecutor accused three Hamas leaders of war crimes over killings of civilians in the group's Oct. 7 attack.

The U.N says some 1.1 million people in Gaza – nearly half the population — face catastrophic levels of hunger and that the territory is on the brink of famine. The crisis in humanitarian supplies has spiraled in the two weeks since Israel launched an incursion into Rafah on May 6, vowing to root out Hamas fighters. Troops seized the Rafah crossing into Egypt, which has been closed since. Since May 10, only about three dozen trucks made it into Gaza via the nearby Kerem Shalom crossing from Israel because fighting makes it difficult for aid workers to reach it, the U.N. says.

For months, the U.N. has warned that an Israeli assault on Rafah could wreck the effort to get food, medicine and other supplies to Palestinians across Gaza. Throughout the war, Rafah has been filled with scenes of hungry children holding out pots and plastic containers at makeshift soup kitchens, with many families reduced to eating only one meal a day. The city's population had swelled to some 1.3 million people, most of whom fled fighting elsewhere.

Around 810,000 people have streamed out of Rafah, although Israel says it has not launched the full-fledged invasion of the city it had planned. The United States has said Israel did not present a “credible” plan for evacuating the population or keeping it safe.

The main agency for Palestinian refugees, UNRWA, announced the suspension of distribution in Rafah in a post on X, without elaborating beyond citing the lack of supplies. U.N. spokesman Stephane Dujarric said the UNRWA distribution center and the WFP's warehouses in Rafah were "inaccessible due to ongoing military operations.”

When asked about the ramification of the suspension of distribution, Dujarric replied, “People don’t eat.”

Etefa said the WFP had also stopped distribution in Rafah after exhausting its stocks. It continues passing out hot meals in central Gaza and “limited distributions” of reduced food parcels in central Gaza, but “food parcel stocks will run out within days,” she said.

Israeli officials say they place no restrictions on the amount of aid going through the crossings. Small numbers of aid trucks continue to enter northern Gaza via a crossing from Israel.

The United States has depicted the floating pier it erected on the Gaza coast as a potential route for accelerated deliveries. The first 10 trucks rolled off a ship onto the pier on Friday and were taken to a WFP warehouse. But a second shipment of 11 trucks on Saturday was met by crowds of hungry Palestinians who took supplies, and only five trucks made it to the warehouse, Etefa said.

No further deliveries came from the pier on Sunday or Monday, she said. She said the problem of people taking supplies from convoys will continue without a consistent flow of aid to assure people “this is not a one-off event.”

“The responsibility of ensuring aid reaches those in need does not end at the crossings and other points of entry into Gaza — it extends throughout Gaza itself,” she said.

At the same time, fighting has escalated in northern Gaza as Israeli troops conduct operations against Hamas fighters, who the military says regrouped in areas already targeted in offensives months ago.

One of the main hospitals still operating in the north, Kamal Adwan, was forced to evacuate after it was “targeted” by Israeli troops, the Gaza Health Ministry said. Around 150 staff and dozens of patients fled the facility, including intensive care patients and infants in incubators “under fire from shelling,” it said. The Israeli military did not immediately reply to requests for comment.

The nearby Awda hospital has been surrounded by troops the past three days, and an artillery shell hit its fifth floor, the hospital administration said in a statement Tuesday. A day earlier, the international medical aid group Doctors Without Borders said Awda had run out of drinking water.

The war between began on Oct. 7, when Hamas-led militants crossed into Israel and killed some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and took 250 hostage. ICC prosecutor Karim Khan accused Hamas’ leaders of crimes against humanity, including extermination, murder and sexual violence.

Israel responded with an offensive that has killed more than 35,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry, which does not distinguish between noncombatants and fighters in its count.

Monday's call by Khan for arrest warrants deepens Israel’s global isolation at a time when it is facing growing criticism from even its closest allies over the war in Gaza. France, Belgium, and Slovenia each said they backed Khan' decision.

Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz headed to France on Tuesday in response, urging it to “declare loud and clear” that the request for warrants against Netanyahu and Gallant "is unacceptable to you and to the French government – regardless of the court’s authority.”

His meetings there could set the tone for how countries navigate the warrants — if they are eventually issued — and whether they could pose a threat to Israeli leaders. A panel of three ICC judges will decide whether to issue the arrest warrants and allow a case to proceed. The judges typically take two months to make such decisions.

Israel still has the support of its top ally, the United States, as well as other Western countries that spoke out against the decision. But if the warrants are issued, they could complicate international travel for Netanyahu and his defense minister, even if they do not face any immediate risk of prosecution because Israel itself is not a member of the court.

The prosecutor also requested warrants for Hamas leaders Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif and Ismail Haniyeh. Hamas is already considered an international terrorist group by the West. Both Sinwar and Deif are believed to be hiding in Gaza. But Haniyeh, the supreme leader of the Islamic militant group, is based in Qatar and frequently travels across the region. Qatar, like Israel, is not a member of the ICC.

Goldenberg reported from Jerusalem. Associated Press journalists Majdi Mohammed in the Jenin refugee camp, West Bank, Jack Jeffery in Jerusalem, John Leicester in Paris, and Jill Lawless in London contributed to this report.

Palestinians wounded in the Israeli bombardment of the Gaza Strip are brought to Al Aqsa hospital in Deir al Balah, Gaza Strip, Tuesday, May 21, 2024. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Palestinians line up for food distribution in Deir al Balah, Gaza, Friday, May 10, 2024. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Journalists carry their colleague after he was shot in his leg during an Israeli military raid in the West Bank Jenin refugee camp, Tuesday, May 21, 2024. Israeli forces raided a militant stronghold Tuesday in the occupied West Bank, killing at least seven and wounding several, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry. The raid into the Jenin refugee camp is part of months of surging violence in the Palestinian territory. (AP Photo/Majdi Mohammed)

Israeli military vehicles are seen during a raid in the West Bank Jenin refugee camp, Tuesday, May 21, 2024. Israeli forces raided a militant stronghold Tuesday in the occupied West Bank, killing at least seven and wounding several, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry. The raid into the Jenin refugee camp is part of months of surging violence in the Palestinian territory. (AP Photo/Majdi Mohammed)

Israeli military vehicles are seen during a raid in the West Bank Jenin refugee camp, Tuesday, May 21, 2024. Israeli forces raided a militant stronghold Tuesday in the occupied West Bank, killing at least seven and wounding several, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry. The raid into the Jenin refugee camp is part of months of surging violence in the Palestinian territory. (AP Photo/Majdi Mohammed)

Palestinians mourn their relative who was killed in an Israeli military raid on the West Bank Jenin refugee camp, at a hospital morgue in the city of Jenin, Tuesday, May 21, 2024. Israeli forces raided a militant stronghold Tuesday in the occupied West Bank, killing at least seven and wounding several, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry. The raid into the Jenin refugee camp is part of months of surging violence in the Palestinian territory. (AP Photo/Majdi Mohammed)

This satellite photo taken by Planet Labs PBC shows an camp before its mass evacuation in Rafah, Gaza, May 5, 2024. (Planet Labs PBC via AP)

This satellite photo taken by Planet Labs PBC shows an evacuated camp in Rafah, Gaza, May 8, 2024. (Planet Labs PBC via AP)

Palestinians wounded in the Israeli bombardment of the Gaza Strip are brought to Al Aqsa hospital in Deir al Balah, Gaza Strip, Tuesday, May 21, 2024. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

This satellite photo taken by Planet Labs PBC shows an evacuated camp in Rafah, Gaza, May 8, 2024. (Planet Labs PBC via AP)

This satellite photo taken by Planet Labs PBC shows an camp before its mass evacuation in Rafah, Gaza, May 5, 2024. (Planet Labs PBC via AP)

Smoke billows after an explosion in the Gaza Strip, as seen from southern Israel Tuesday, May 21, 2024. (AP Photo/Leo Correa)

Palestinians wounded in the Israeli bombardment of the Gaza Strip are brought to Al Aqsa hospital in Deir al Balah, Gaza Strip, Tuesday, May 21, 2024. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

FILE - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a press conference in the Kirya military base in Tel Aviv, Israel on Oct. 28, 2023. Top Israeli officials are accused of seven war crimes and crimes against humanity by the ICC. (Abir Sultan/Pool Photo via AP, File)

FILE - Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of the Palestinian militant group Hamas, speaks to journalists after his meeting with Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, in Beirut, Lebanon, on June 28, 2021. The Hamas officials are accused by the ICC of planning and instigating eight war crimes and crimes against humanity, among them extermination, murder, taking hostages, rape and torture. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar, File)

Smoke rises following an Israeli airstrike in the Gaza Strip, as seen from southern Israel Tuesday, May 21, 2024. (AP Photo/Leo Correa)

FILE - Exterior view of the International Criminal Court, or ICC, in The Hague, Netherlands, Tuesday, April 30, 2024. The International Criminal Court's chief prosecutor said Monday, May 20, 2024, that he’s seeking arrest warrants for both Israeli and Hamas leaders in connection with their actions during the seven-month war. (AP Photo/Peter Dejong, File)

Smoke rises to the sky after explosion in the Gaza Strip, as seen from southern Israel Tuesday, May 21, 2024. (AP Photo/Leo Correa)