After Syria missile strikes, US stuck in holding pattern

The drama of U.S. and allied missile strikes on Syria has obscured a sobering fact: The U.S.-led campaign to eliminate the Islamic State from Syria has stalled.

The U.S. has 2,000 troops in Syria assisting local Arab and Kurdish fighters against IS, even as President Donald Trump resists deeper U.S. involvement and is eager to withdraw completely in coming months. Trump wants "other people" to deal with Syria, whose civil war has spawned the greatest humanitarian crisis since World War II in terms of refugees.

In this image provided by the U.S. Air Force, a C-17 Globemaster III, assigned to the 816th Expeditionary Airlift Squadron, conducts combat airlift operations for U.S. and coalition forces in Iraq and Syria on April 13, 2018. The drama of U.S. and allied missiles strikes on Syria has obscured the fact that the U.S.-led campaign to eliminate the Islamic State from Syria has stalled. This is an illustration of the many-layered complexities of the Syrian conflict. (Tech. Sgt Gregory Brook/U.S. Air Force via AP)

It's unclear whether Trump will go ahead with a total U.S. withdrawal while IS retains even a small presence in Syria.

Since January, when Trump asserted in his State of the Union address that "very close to 100 percent" of IS territory in Syria and Iraq had been liberated, progress toward extinguishing the extremists' caliphate, or self-proclaimed state, has ground to a halt and shows no sign of restarting. U.S. warplanes continue to periodically bomb remaining pockets of IS in eastern Syria, but ground operations by U.S. partner forces have slowed.

"We've halted forward progress and are essentially attempting to avoid losing territory we've gained to date," said Jennifer Cafarella, an analyst at the Institute for the Study of War. She sees two potential solutions: send additional U.S. combat power to eastern Syria to take on IS more directly, or resolve a diplomatic dispute with Turkey that has largely sidelined the main U.S. military partner in Syria, the Syrian Democratic Forces.

Now that Trump has upped the ante by attacking Syria directly for the second time in just over a year, Cafarella said in an interview this week, it is possible that Syria and its two main international supporters — Russia and Iran — will retaliate militarily against American forces and their Kurdish and Arab partners in eastern Syria "in an attempt to compel an American withdrawal by raising the cost of continued American involvement."

The U.S. began bombing IS in Syria in September 2014 and deployed an initial contingent of 50 special operations troops in the country the following year. The anti-IS campaign gained momentum in 2016 and made its biggest gains during Trump's first year in office.

A spokesman for the U.S.-led military coalition against IS refused this week to say how many IS fighters remain. Col. Ryan Dillon said they are holed up mainly in two places in eastern Syria. He said they are in and around the town of Hajin on the Euphrates River north of Bukamal and in Dashisha near the city of Deir el-Zour. They are "contained" in these areas, he asserted, suggesting they are not in immediate danger of being ousted.

FILE - In this April 4, 2018, file photo, a U.S. soldier sits on an armored vehicle on a road leading to the front line with Turkish-backed fighters, in Manbij, north Syria,. The drama of U.S. and allied missiles strikes on Syria has obscured the fact that the U.S.-led campaign to eliminate the Islamic State from Syria has stalled. This is an illustration of the many-layered complexities of the Syrian conflict. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)

Of concern, Dillon said, are indications that IS is stepping up successful attacks against pro-government fighters elsewhere in Syria.

The Trump administration has been saying in recent months that 98 percent of IS territory has been liberated, suggesting the campaign was close to final victory, although on April 3 the Army general overseeing the campaign, Joseph Votel, put it differently, saying "well over 90 percent" of the caliphate had been retaken.

"The situation continues to become more and more complex," Votel said, alluding in part to the effects of a Turkish incursion into the town of Afrin in northwestern Syria.

The Afrin operation was part of a Turkish plan to drive the main Syrian Kurdish militia, known as the YPG, away from the Turkish border area. Turkey considers the YPG a threat to its national security and an extension of Kurdish insurgents inside Turkey. But the YPG also is America's main partner in Syria; it forms the backbone of the Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF. Turkey's advance on Afrin prompted the SDF to shift from fighting IS to confronting Turkey in Afrin.

The result: "We are no longer in an offensive effort on the ground against them (Islamic State)," Defense Secretary Jim Mattis told reporters March 27.

FIEL - In this April 4, 2018, file photo, a U.S. soldier sits on an armored vehicle on a newly installed position, near front line between the U.S-backed Syrian Manbij Military Council and the Turkish-backed fighters, in Manbij, north Syria. The drama of U.S. and allied missiles strikes on Syria has obscured the fact that the U.S.-led campaign to eliminate the Islamic State from Syria has stalled. This is an illustration of the many-layered complexities of the Syrian conflict. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)

Even so, eliminating IS in Syria remains the goal, he said after Trump announced the missile strikes to punish the Syrian government for its alleged chemical weapons use.

The barrage of 105 missiles launched by the United States, Britain and France last week to destroy elements of Syria's chemical weapons arsenal was designed to deter President Bashar Assad from repeating his alleged use of chlorine gas and perhaps nerve gas on civilians in a Damascus suburb. It was unrelated to the IS problem, except in the sense that it highlighted the jumble of actors involved and the absence of a broad U.S. strategy.

Sen. John McCain, one of the Congress' most vocal advocates for a fuller U.S. role in Syria, praised Trump for the missile strikes. But he also said the president needs to look beyond defeating IS and stopping further chemical weapons use by Assad to tackle the bigger challenge of regional conflict.

"Airstrikes disconnected from a broader strategy may be necessary, but they alone will not achieve U.S. objectives in the Middle East," he said.

In this image provided by the U.S. Air Force, a C-17 Globemaster III, assigned to the 816th Expeditionary Airlift Squadron, conducts combat airlift operations for U.S. and Coalition forces in Iraq and Syria on April 13, 2018. The drama of U.S. and allied missiles strikes on Syria has obscured the fact that the U.S.-led campaign to eliminate the Islamic State from Syria has stalled. This is an illustration of the many-layered complexities of the Syrian conflict. (Tech. Sgt. Gregory Brook, U.S. Air Force via AP)

ROME (AP) — Pope Leo XIV criticized prison overcrowding and insufficient inmate rehabilitation programs on Sunday as he celebrated a special Mass for detainees, guards and their families in the final event of the Vatican's 2025 Holy Year.

The Vatican said an estimated 6,000 people signed up to participate in the weekend pilgrimage, including representatives from big detention facilities in Italy and prison volunteers, wardens and prison chaplains from 90 countries.

Included were a few groups of inmates who received special permission to participate, according to the Italian penitentiary chaplain’s association.

In his homily, Leo acknowledged the oftentimes poor conditions prisoners face even in wealthier countries. He called for a sense of charity and forgiveness to prevail for prisoners and those responsible for guarding them.

“Here, we can mention overcrowding, insufficient commitment to guarantee stable educational programs for rehabilitation and job opportunities,” he said, adding that patience and forgiveness are needed.

“On a more personal level, let us not forget the weight of the past, the wounds to be healed in body and heart, the disappointments, the infinite patience that is needed with oneself and with others when embarking on paths of conversion, and the temptation to give up or to no longer forgive,” he said.

As the last big event of the 2025 Jubilee, the Mass in many ways closed out the Holy Year that Pope Francis inaugurated Christmas Eve 2024, which had as its main thrust transmitting a message of hope especially for those on society’s margins.

During his 12-year pontificate, Francis had prioritized ministering to prisoners to offer them hope for a better future. On Dec. 26 last year Francis travelled to Rome’s Rebibbia prison to open its Holy Door and include the inmates in the Jubilee celebrations.

Leo recalled that visit in Sunday's homily, as well as Francis’ Holy Year appeal for governments around the world to offer prison amnesties and pardons, which are a mainstay of the Catholic Church's Jubilee tradition.

In Italy, prison overcrowding is a longstanding problem that has been denounced by the European Court of Human Rights and humanitarian organizations.

Antigone, an Italian prisoner advocacy group, said Italian prisons are now at 135% overcapacity, with more than 63,000 people detained in facilities with fewer than 47,000 beds. Italian prison authorities received 5,837 complaints of inhuman or degrading treatment last year, 23.4% more than in the previous year, Antigone said.

The Mass was the final big Jubilee event of the 2025 Holy Year, which Leo will officially close out on Jan. 6 when he shuts the Holy Door of St. Peter's.

Associated Press religion coverage receives support through the AP’s collaboration with The Conversation US, with funding from Lilly Endowment Inc. The AP is solely responsible for this content.

Pope Leo XIV arrives to celebrate a Mass on the occasion of the Jubilee of Prisoners in St. Peter's Basilica, at the Vatican, Sunday, Dec. 14, 2025. (AP Photo/Alessandra Tarantino)

Pope Leo XIV celebrates a Mass on the occasion of the Jubilee of Prisoners in St. Peter's Basilica, at the Vatican, Sunday, Dec. 14, 2025. (AP Photo/Alessandra Tarantino)

Pope Leo XIV celebrates a Mass on the occasion of the Jubilee of Prisoners in St. Peter's Basilica, at the Vatican, Sunday, Dec. 14, 2025. (AP Photo/Alessandra Tarantino)

Pope Leo XIV gestures as he celebrates a Mass on the occasion of the Jubilee of Prisoners in St. Peter's Basilica, at the Vatican, Sunday, Dec. 14, 2025. (AP Photo/Alessandra Tarantino)

Pope Leo XIV delivers his speech as he celebrates a Mass on the occasion of the Jubilee of Prisoners in St. Peter's Basilica, at the Vatican, Sunday, Dec. 14, 2025. (AP Photo/Alessandra Tarantino)