Like white smoke from the Vatican announcing a new pope, the signal from Britain's Cabinet table says: We have a decision.
After a year and a half of negotiating with the European Union — and fighting with itself — the U.K. government on Wednesday backed a deal to allow Britain's orderly exit from the bloc, and paint the outlines of future relations.
Prime Minister Theresa May's fractious Conservative government agreed on a deal that solves the key outstanding issue — how to ensure a frictionless border between the U.K.'s Northern Ireland and EU member Ireland after Brexit. The "backstop" plan involves keeping the U.K. in a customs union with the EU until a permanent trade treaty is worked out.
Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May delivers a speech outside 10 Downing Street in London, Wednesday, Nov. 14, 2018. British Prime Minister Theresa May says Cabinet agrees draft Brexit deal with European Union after 'impassioned' debate. (AP PhotoMatt Dunham)
It's a breakthrough, but the path to Brexit day — just over four months away on March 29 — remains rocky.
Here's a look at what is likely to happen next:
BEELINE TO BRUSSELS
May is due to update Parliament on Thursday on what has been agreed, while Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab will likely head to Brussels to meet with chief EU negotiator Michel Barnier.
Barnier declared there has been "decisive progress" toward a deal — the phrase that allows EU leaders to call a special summit to approve the deal. They have penciled in a meeting for Nov. 25.
The deal consists of two parts: a legally binding withdrawal agreement — which includes the border backstop — and a looser framework for future relations. The two sides have given themselves a transition period until the end of 2020 to work out the details of future trade ties.
PERIL IN PARLIAMENT
Once the EU has signed off on it, the deal also must be approved by the European and British parliaments
May hopes to get it passed by U.K. lawmakers before Christmas. Business groups warn that most U.K. companies will implement Brexit contingency plans — cutting jobs, stockpiling goods, relocating production — if there isn't clarity by then about the terms of Brexit.
But she faces an uphill battle. May's Conservative Party doesn't hold a majority of seats in the House of Commons, and relies on 10 lawmakers from Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party to win votes. But the DUP says it will reject any deal that treats Northern Ireland differently to the rest of the U.K.
Several dozen pro-Brexit Conservatives have vowed to oppose any arrangement that keeps Britain in a customs union, and tied to EU trade rules, indefinitely.
The main opposition Labour Party also says it will oppose any deal that doesn't offer the same benefits Britain currently has as a member of the EU's single market and customs union.
May is calculating that, faced with the prospect of a chaotic "no-deal" exit — complete with financial turmoil, gridlock at U.K. ports and shortages of essential goods — most Conservatives and some opposition lawmakers will crumble and support the deal.
UNCHARTED TERRITORY
If Parliament rejects the deal, Britain enters unknown territory.
Lawmakers could try to send the government back to the negotiating table with the EU, though there's no simple mechanism to make that happen. They could defeat the government in a no-confidence vote in an attempt to trigger a national election.
Lawmakers could even vote for a new referendum on EU membership, though it seems unlikely there would be time to hold one before the U.K.'s scheduled departure date. The U.K. will cease to be an EU member on March 29 — deal or no deal.
Iain Begg, a professor at the London School of Economics' European Institute, said rejection of a deal would trigger a major political crisis because Britain's patchwork constitution offers no "prescribed way out of that dilemma."
He said in that case, "we really are into a period of great uncertainty about what happens next. I think nobody can know how it would unfold."
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PARIS (AP) — French President Emmanuel Macron warned Thursday that Europe could die if it fails to build its own robust defense as Russia’s war in Ukraine rages on, or if it fails to undertake massive trade and economic reforms to compete with China and the U.S.
Macron urged Europeans to become more ambitious in a fast-changing world to face the challenges of war, fierce trade competition, energy scarcity, climate change and increasing authoritarianism.
In a nearly two-hour speech at the Paris’s Sorbonne University, Macron said the Continent is divided and “too slow and lacks ambition” at a time when the 27-member European Union needs to become a superpower, defend its own borders and speak with one voice if it wants to survive and thrive.
“Our Europe today is mortal,” Macron said. “It can die and that depends solely on our choices,” he added. He called on people to make those choices now because, “it’s today that Europe is between war and peace.”
Russia's aggression in Ukraine, now in its third year, is an existential threat and Europe is not armed enough to defend itself when “confronted by a power like Russia that has no inhibitions, no limits,” Macron said.
‘Our ability to ensure our security is at stake," Macron said. “Russia mustn’t be allowed to win.”
France has been an firm supporter of Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression, and Macron has often clashed with other Western leaders as he has insisted that Europe must stand by the country at any cost. Last month, the French president alarmed European leaders by saying that sending Western troops into Ukraine to shore up its defenses shouldn’t be ruled out.
Referring to trade practices of China and the U.S., Macron said “the two world powers have decided not to respect the rules of global trade” by shoring up protections and subsides while Europe’s industry remains open and is stuck in overregulation.
“Let’s do the same, we are in competition,” Macron said.
Thursday's speech comes ahead of pivotal European Parliament elections.
Macron, a avid advocate of a united and assertive Europe, also rallied support for his centrist Renaissance party ahead of the June 6-9 vote as far-right parties lead the moderate coalitions in the polls. He called for safeguarding the democratic values as the “authoritarian model” that he said was become “more popular” across the Continent.
The French president lost his majority in France’s most influential house of parliament, the National Assembly, after the 2022 election to the far-left coalition and the far-right National Rally party.
The social situation in France remains tense as Paris prepares to host the Olympic Games this summer, amid protests from teachers, police officers, and farmers in recent weeks. The protests follow huge demonstrations last year against Macron’s ultimately successful proposal to rise the retirement age.
Surk reported from Nice, France. AP correspondent Lorne Cook in Brussels contributed.
French President Emmanuel Macron delivers a speech on Europe in the amphitheater of the Sorbonne University, Thursday, April 25 in Paris. 2024. French President Emmanuel Macron will outline his vision for Europe as a more assertive global power at the backdrop of war in Ukraine, security, and economic challenges in a speech ahead of pivotal election for the European Parliament in June. (Christophe Petit Tesson, Pool via AP)
French President Emmanuel Macron delivers a speech on Europe in the amphitheater of the Sorbonne University, Thursday, April 25 in Paris. 2024. French President Emmanuel Macron will outline his vision for Europe as a more assertive global power at the backdrop of war in Ukraine, security, and economic challenges in a speech ahead of pivotal election for the European Parliament in June. (Christophe Petit Tesson, Pool via AP)
French President Emmanuel Macron delivers a speech on Europe in the amphitheater of the Sorbonne University, Thursday, April 25 in Paris. 2024. French President Emmanuel Macron will outline his vision for Europe as a more assertive global power at the backdrop of war in Ukraine, security, and economic challenges in a speech ahead of pivotal election for the European Parliament in June. (Christophe Petit Tesson, Pool via AP)
French President Emmanuel Macron delivers a speech on Europe in the amphitheater of the Sorbonne University, Thursday, April 25 in Paris. 2024. French President Emmanuel Macron will outline his vision for Europe as a more assertive global power at the backdrop of war in Ukraine, security, and economic challenges in a speech ahead of pivotal election for the European Parliament in June. (Christophe Petit Tesson, Pool via AP)
French President Emmanuel Macron delivers a speech on Europe in the amphitheater of the Sorbonne University, Thursday, April 25 in Paris. 2024. French President Emmanuel Macron will outline his vision for Europe as a more assertive global power at the backdrop of war in Ukraine, security, and economic challenges in a speech ahead of pivotal election for the European Parliament in June. (Christophe Petit Tesson, Pool via AP)
French President Emmanuel Macron delivers a speech on Europe in the amphitheater of the Sorbonne University, Thursday, April 25 in Paris. 2024. French President Emmanuel Macron will outline his vision for Europe as a more assertive global power at the backdrop of war in Ukraine, security, and economic challenges in a speech ahead of pivotal election for the European Parliament in June. (Christophe Petit Tesson, Pool via AP)
French President Emmanuel Macron arrives to deliver a speech on Europe in the amphitheater of the Sorbonne University, Thursday, April 25 in Paris. 2024. French President Emmanuel Macron will outline his vision for Europe as a more assertive global power at the backdrop of war in Ukraine, security, and economic challenges in a speech ahead of pivotal election for the European Parliament in June. (Christophe Petit Tesson, Pool via AP)
French President Emmanuel Macron delivers a speech on Europe in the amphitheater of the Sorbonne University, Thursday, April 25 in Paris. 2024. French President Emmanuel Macron will outline his vision for Europe as a more assertive global power at the backdrop of war in Ukraine, security, and economic challenges in a speech ahead of pivotal election for the European Parliament in June. (Christophe Petit Tesson, Pool via AP)
French President Emmanuel Macron delivers a speech on Europe in the amphitheater of the Sorbonne University, Thursday, April 25 in Paris. 2024. French President Emmanuel Macron will outline his vision for Europe as a more assertive global power at the backdrop of war in Ukraine, security, and economic challenges in a speech ahead of pivotal election for the European Parliament in June. (Christophe Petit Tesson, Pool via AP)
French President Emmanuel Macron speaks during a media conference at an EU summit in Brussels, Thursday, April 18, 2024. European Union leaders on Wednesday debated a new "European Competitiveness Deal" aimed at helping the 27-nation bloc close the gap with Chinese and American rivals amid fears the region's industries will otherwise be left behind for good. (AP Photo/Omar Havana)
