In Oregon, stark rural-urban divide fuels climate dispute

The divide in Oregon between the state's liberal, urban population centers and its conservative and economically depressed rural areas has made it fertile ground for the political crisis unfolding over a push by Democrats to enact sweeping climate legislation.

Eleven Republican senators are entering the seventh day of a walkout Wednesday to deny the supermajority Democrats the quorum needed to vote on a cap and trade bill that would be the second of its kind in the U.S. The stalemate has drawn international attention, in part because right-wing militias have rallied to the GOP cause.

One Republican lawmaker said state troopers dispatched to hunt down the rogue lawmakers should "come heavily armed" if they want to bring him back to the Capitol — a departure from traditional bipartisan cooperation.

FILE - In this June 20, 2019, file photo, a diesel truck that belongs to a self-employed logger is parked in Salem, Ore. The divide in Oregon between the state’s liberal, urban population centers and its conservative and economically depressed rural areas has made it fertile ground for the political crisis unfolding over a push by Democrats to enact sweeping climate legislation. Just three years after armed militia members took over a national wildlife refuge in southeastern Oregon, some of the same groups are now seizing on a walkout by Oregon’s GOP senators to broadcast their anti-establishment message. (AP PhotoGillian Flaccus, File)

"This is not the Oregon Way and cannot be rewarded," said Democratic Gov. Kate Brown. "The Republicans are driving us away from the values that Oregonians hold dear, and are moving us dangerously close to the self-serving stalemate in Washington, D.C."

Experts say the standoff was inevitable given the state's political make-up.

Oregon has a national reputation as a liberal bastion best known for its craft beer, doughnuts and award-winning wine. But while the state's urban centers lean left, about 40% of residents — mostly those in rural areas — consistently vote Republican, said Priscilla Southwell, a University of Oregon professor who wrote "Governing Oregon."

FILE - In this Thursday, June 20, 2019, file photo, a TV reporter interviews self-employed logger Bridger Hasbrouck, of Dallas, Ore., outside the Oregon State House in Salem, Ore. The stark divide in Oregon between the state's liberal, urban population centers and its conservative and economically depressed rural areas makes it fertile ground for the partisan crisis currently unfolding there. Rural voters worry the cap-and-trade bill would be the end for logging and trucking. "It's going to ruin so many lives, it's going to put so many people out of work," said Bridger Hasbrouck, a self-employed logger from Dallas, Ore. (AP PhotoGillian Flaccus, File)

"The reality is that it is a much more divided state than people realize," she said. "It's kind of like a perfect storm for this kind of thing to happen."

That political divide also translates to an economic chasm for many. As Portland has boomed, huge swaths of the state have been left without enough money to keep libraries open or fully staff sheriff's departments.

Logging, which once thrived, has almost vanished because of environmental restrictions and a changing global economy. Rural voters worry the cap-and-trade bill would be the end for logging and trucking.

FILE - In this Oct. 17, 2018, file photo, Oregon Gov. Kate Brown speaks during a rally in Portland, Ore. The stark divide in Oregon between the state's liberal, urban population centers and its conservative and economically depressed rural areas makes it fertile ground for the political crisis unfolding over a push by Democrats to enact sweeping climate legislation. “This is not the Oregon Way and cannot be rewarded,” said Democratic Brown. “The Republicans are driving us away from the values that Oregonians hold dear, and are moving us dangerously close to the self-serving stalemate in Washington, D.C." (AP PhotoDon Ryan, File)

"It's going to ruin so many lives, it's going to put so many people out of work," said Bridger Hasbrouck, a self-employed logger from Dallas, Oregon. "If the guys that I'm cutting for can't afford to run their logging companies, then I have to figure out something different."

The proposal would dramatically reduce greenhouse gases over 30 years by capping carbon emissions and requiring businesses to buy or trade from an ever-dwindling pool of pollution "allowances."

Democrats say the legislation is critical to make Oregon a leader in the fight against climate change and will ultimately create jobs and transform the economy.

FILE - This Jan. 27, 2015, file photo, shows the "Portland, Oregon" sign in downtown Portland, Ore. The stark divide in Oregon between the state’s liberal, urban population centers and its conservative and economically depressed rural areas makes it fertile ground for the political crisis unfolding over a push by Democrats to enact sweeping climate legislation. As Portland has boomed, huge swaths of the state have been left without enough money to keep libraries open or fully staff sheriff’s departments. (AP PhotoDon Ryan, File)

Republicans say it will kill jobs, raise the cost of fuel and other goods and gut small businesses. They also say that they've been left out of policy negotiations, an assertion the governor called "hogwash."

Yet that sense of rural alienation gives right-wing groups such as the Oregon Three Percenters a way into the conversation by portraying the climate bill as a stand-in for a number of concerns held by rural, conservative voters nationally, said Chris Shortell, chairman of Portland State University's political science department.

"It highlights the ways in which local politics have become nationalized," he said. "It's not just about the climate change bill in Oregon. Now it's about, 'Are Democrats legitimate in acting this way?'"

FILE - In this Monday, Jan. 4, 2016, file photo, members of the group occupying the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge headquarters stand guard near Burns, Ore. The divide in Oregon between the state’s liberal, urban population centers and its conservative and economically depressed rural areas makes it fertile ground for the political crisis unfolding over a push by Democrats to enact sweeping climate legislation. Just three years after armed militia members took over the national wildlife refuge in southeastern Oregon, some of the same groups are now seizing on a walkout by Oregon’s GOP senators to broadcast their anti-establishment message. (AP PhotoRick Bowmer, File)

Some also worry the climate standoff could put Oregon back in the crosshairs of an anti-government movement that in 2016 used the federal prosecution of two ranchers to mobilize an armed takeover of the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge. One militia member was killed and another injured in weeks-long standoff protesting the U.S. government's management of vast swaths of the American West.

During the current political crisis, one militia group offered safe passage to the rogue GOP senators and the Capitol shut down last Saturday because of what police called a credible "militia threat."

Right-wing and nationalist groups have been increasingly visible in Oregon over the past five years as rural voters get more disillusioned, said Eric Ward, executive director of the Portland-based Western States Center.

FILE - In this June 4, 2019, file photo, supporters attend a rally for a group of young people who filed a lawsuit saying U.S. energy policies are causing climate change and hurting their future, in Portland, Ore. The divide in Oregon between the state’s liberal, urban population centers and its conservative and economically depressed rural areas makes it fertile ground for the political crisis unfolding over a push by Democrats to enact sweeping climate legislation. Just three years after armed militia members took over a national wildlife refuge in southeastern Oregon, some of the same groups are now seizing on a walkout by Oregon’s GOP senators to broadcast their anti-establishment message. (AP PhotoSteve Dipaola, File)

"In frustration, there are organizations and individuals who have stepped into a leadership gap and are attempting to provide parallel leadership," he said. "But that leadership is led by ... bigotry and threats of violence."

For more than 50 years, the rural U.S. West has undergone tremendous change as federal protections for forestland and endangered species reshaped residents' relationship with the land, said Patty Limerick, faculty director at the Center of the American West at the University of Colorado, Boulder.

"Sometimes a historical shakeup takes a couple of decades for people to adjust and sometimes it takes a couple of centuries," Limerick said. "I think we ought to understand that this is a really different world from 50 years ago — and no wonder that some people feel that it's time for acts of desperation and dramatically staged opposition."

FILE - In this March 23, 2016, file photo, is part of the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge outside of Burns, Ore. The divide in Oregon between the state’s liberal, urban population centers and its conservative and economically depressed rural areas makes it fertile ground for the political crisis unfolding over a push by Democrats to enact sweeping climate legislation. Just three years after armed militia members took over the national wildlife refuge in southeastern Oregon, some of the same groups are now seizing on a walkout by Oregon’s GOP senators to broadcast their anti-establishment message. (Dave KillenThe Oregonian via AP, File)

For now, it's unclear how that drama will play out. The governor said late Tuesday that the Democrats no longer have the votes needed to pass the bill even if Republicans were to return, but the GOP still stayed away.

Follow Gillian Flaccus on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/gflaccus

FILE - In this May 7, 2019, file photo, a group including three Democratic senators stand among the empty desks of Republican senators during a Senate floor session at the Oregon State Capitol in Salem, Ore. The divide in Oregon between the state’s liberal urban centers and its conservative rural areas makes it ripe for the political crisis unfolding over sweeping climate legislation. Eleven Republican senators are entering the seventh day of a walkout to deny the supermajority Democrats the quorum needed to vote on a cap-and-trade bill that would be the second of its kind in the U.S. (Connor RadnovichStatesman-Journal via AP, File)

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Biden administration said Friday that Israel's use of U.S.-provided weapons in Gaza likely violated international humanitarian law but wartime conditions prevented U.S. officials from determining that for certain in specific airstrikes.

The finding of “reasonable” evidence to conclude that the U.S. ally had breached international law in its conduct of the war in Gaza, released in a summary of a report being delivered to Congress on Friday, represents the strongest such statement from Biden officials.

But the caveat that the U.S. was unable immediately to link specific U.S. weapons to individual strikes by Israeli forces in Gaza could give the administration leeway in any future decision on whether to restrict provisions of offensive weapons to Israel.

The first-of-its-kind assessment, which was compelled by President Joe Biden’s fellow Democrats in Congress, comes after seven months of airstrikes, ground fighting and aid restrictions that have claimed the lives of nearly 35,000 Palestinians, mostly women and children.

While U.S. officials were unable to gather all the information they needed on specific strikes, "given Israel’s significant reliance on U.S.-made defense articles, it is reasonable to assess that defense articles ... have been used by Israeli security forces since October 7 in instances inconsistent with its IHL obligations or with established best practices for mitigating civilian harm,” the report said, using an abbreviation for international humanitarian law.

While Israel's military has the experience, technology and know-how to minimize harm to civilians, “the results on the ground, including high levels of civilian casualties, raise substantial questions as to whether the IDF is using them effectively in all cases," the report said.

Biden has tried to walk an ever-finer line in his support of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s war against Hamas. He has faced growing rancor at home and abroad over the soaring Palestinian death toll and the onset of famine, caused in large part by Israeli restrictions on the movement of food and aid into Gaza. Tensions have been heightened further in recent weeks by Netanyahu’s pledge to expand the Israeli military’s offensive in the crowded southern city of Rafah, despite Biden's adamant opposition.

Biden is in the closing months of a tough reelection campaign against Donald Trump. He faces demands from many Democrats that he cut the flow of offensive weapons to Israel and denunciation from Republicans who accuse him of wavering on support for Israel at its time of need.

The Democratic administration took one of the first steps toward conditioning military aid to Israel in recent days when it paused a shipment of 3,500 bombs out of concern over Israel’s threatened offensive on Rafah, a southern city crowded with more than a million Palestinians, a senior administration official said.

The presidential directive, agreed to in February, obligated the Defense and State departments to conduct “an assessment of any credible reports or allegations that such defense articles and, as appropriate, defense services, have been used in a manner not consistent with international law, including international humanitarian law.”

The agreement also obligated them to tell Congress whether they deemed that Israel has acted to “arbitrarily to deny, restrict, or otherwise impede, directly or indirectly,” delivery of any U.S.-supported humanitarian aid into Gaza for starving civilians there.

Lawmakers and others who advocated for the review said Biden and previous American leaders have followed a double standard when enforcing U.S. laws governing how foreign militaries use U.S. support, an accusation the Biden administration denies. They had urged the administration to make a straightforward legal determination of whether there was credible evidence that specific Israeli airstrikes on schools, crowded neighborhoods, medical workers, aid convoys and other targets, and restrictions on aid shipments into Gaza, violated the laws of war and human rights.

Their opponents argued that a U.S. finding against Israel would weaken it at a time it is battling Hamas and other Iran-backed groups. Any sharply critical findings on Israel are sure to add to pressure on Biden to curb the flow of weapons and money to Israel’s military and further heighten tensions with Netanyahu’s hard-right government over its conduct of the war against Hamas.

Any finding against Israel also could endanger Biden’s support in this year's presidential elections from some voters who keenly support Israel.

At the time the White House agreed to the review, it was working to head off moves from Democratic lawmakers and independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont to start restricting shipments of weapons to Israel.

Israel launched its offensive after an Oct. 7 assault into Israel, led by Hamas, killed about 1,200 people. Two-thirds of the Palestinians killed since then have been women and children, according to local health officials. U.S. and U.N. officials say Israeli restrictions on food shipments since Oct. 7 have brought on full-fledged famine in northern Gaza.

Human rights groups long have accused Israeli security forces of committing abuses against Palestinians and have accused Israeli leaders of failing to hold those responsible to account. In January, in a case brought by South Africa, the top U.N. court ordered Israel to do all it could to prevent death, destruction and any acts of genocide in Gaza, but the panel stopped short of ordering an end to the military offensive.

Israel says it is following all U.S. and international law, that it investigates allegations of abuse by its security forces and that its campaign in Gaza is proportional to the existential threat it says is posed by Hamas.

Biden in December said “indiscriminate bombing” was costing Israel international backing. After Israeli forces targeted and killed seven aid workers from the World Central Kitchen in April, the Biden administration for the first time signaled it might cut military aid to Israel if it didn’t change its handling of the war and humanitarian aid.

Presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush, in the 1980s and early 1990s, were the last presidents to openly hold back weapons or military financing to try to push Israel to change its actions in the region or toward Palestinians.

A report to the Biden administration by an unofficial, self-formed panel including military experts, academics and former State Department officials detailed Israeli strikes on aid convoys, journalists, hospitals, schools and refugee centers and other sites. They argued that the civilian death toll in those strikes — such as an Oct. 31 strike on an apartment building reported to have killed 106 civilians — was disproportionate to the blow against any military target.

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Zeke Miller and Mike Balsamo contributed.

Palestinians mourn their relatives killed in the Israeli bombardment of the Gaza Strip, at a hospital in Rafah, Gaza, Friday, May 10, 2024. (AP Photo/Ismael Abu Dayyah)

U.S. President Joe Biden boards Marine One at Moffett Airfield in Mountain View, Calif., Thursday, May 9, 2024. (Jose Carlos Fajardo/Pool Photo via AP)