Britain's Parliament is set to vote Saturday on Prime Minister Boris Johnson's new deal with the European Union, a decisive moment in the prolonged bid to end the Brexit stalemate. Various scenarios may be put in motion by the vote.
IF THE DEAL IS APPROVED IN PARLIAMENT
A "yes" vote would mark the first time Parliament has agreed to terms of a divorce deal and would be a substantial political victory for Johnson, who helped lead the pro-Brexit forces during the 2016 referendum.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson prepares to address a media conference at an EU summit in Brussels, Thursday, Oct. 17, 2019. Britain and the European Union reached a new tentative Brexit deal on Thursday, hoping to finally escape the acrimony, divisions and frustration of their three-year divorce battle. (AP PhotoFrancisco Seco)
It would have to be followed by an intense push in Parliament to pass the necessary implementation law in time for Britain to formally leave the EU on the Oct. 31 deadline. If this proves impossible, a "technical" extension would be expected to give Britain time to enact the legislation.
It is also possible the plan could pass with an amendment to require a national vote to determine whether the public favors it — which would also make an extension inevitable.
The European Parliament also has to approve the deal, but it unlikely to be voted down there.
If Britain does leave under the terms of a deal, there would be an extended "transition period" that would last at least until the end of 2020, so no immediate change in policies would be seen.
IF THE DEAL IS DEFEATED
A "no" vote would mean Britain is scheduled to leave the EU on Oct. 31 but still has no plan in place — the so-called "no-deal" scenario that government papers suggest would trigger economic contraction, long delays at ports and possible shortages of food and medicine.
Parliament has passed a law to avoid this situation by requiring Johnson to write a letter to the EU by Saturday night formally requesting an extension to the deadline. Johnson has said he will not do so, but government lawyers have told a court he plans to comply with the law. His precise course cannot be easily predicted.
If Johnson chooses to defy the law requiring him to seek an extension, he will face an immediate court challenge in Scotland — in a case already underway — and perhaps in other jurisdictions that would likely end up quickly in Britain's Supreme Court.
If he does seek an extension, EU leaders would expect him to provide a justification for delay, and it is expected Johnson will say the delay is needed because Britain needs a national election to bring in a new Parliament to break the logjam.
A unanimous vote would be needed from the leaders of the other 27 EU nations before an extension could be approved. Indications are it would be granted.
PARIS (AP) — French President Emmanuel Macron warned Thursday that Europe could “die” if it fails to build its own robust defense as Russia’s war in Ukraine rages on, or if it fails to undertake major trade and economic reforms to compete with China and the U.S.
Macron urged Europeans to become more ambitious in a fast-changing world to face the challenges of war, fierce trade competition, energy scarcity, climate change and increasing authoritarianism.
In a nearly two-hour speech at Sorbonne University in Paris, Macron said that the continent is divided and “too slow and lacks ambition” at a time when the 27-member European Union needs to become a superpower, defend its own borders and speak with one voice if it wants to survive and thrive.
“Our Europe today is mortal,” Macron said. “It can die and that depends solely on our choices,” he added. He called on people to make those choices now because, “it’s today that Europe is between war and peace.”
Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, now in its third year, is an existential threat and Europe isn't armed enough to defend itself when “confronted by a power like Russia that has no inhibitions, no limits,” Macron said.
‘Our ability to ensure our security is at stake," Macron said. “Russia mustn’t be allowed to win.”
Europe now has the “good fortune” of having the Biden administration’s commitment to supporting Ukraine, Macron said. But, in a year of key elections around Europe, in the U.S. and elsewhere, support may fragment or disappear entirely, he added.
“Europe must become capable of defending its interests, with its allies by our side whenever they are willing, and alone if necessary,” Macron said.
Strong armies, a European rapid intervention program and force, tanks, a missile shield and other weapons, produced in Europe, will need the support of “a joint diplomatic force that will speak with one voice and build bridges with Africa and Latin America,” the French leader said.
“Only then will Europe show that it's not a United States’ lap dog, and that it also knows how to talk to other regions of the world,” he said.
France has been a firm supporter of Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression, and Macron has often clashed with other Western leaders as he has insisted that Europe must stand by the country at any cost. The French president alarmed European leaders by saying recently that sending Western troops into Ukraine to shore up its defenses shouldn’t be ruled out.
Referring to trade practices of China and the U.S., Macron said “the two world powers have decided not to respect the rules of global trade” by shoring up protections and subsides while Europe’s industry remains open and is stuck in overregulation.
“Let’s do the same, we are in competition,” Macron said.
“We must buy faster, we must produce more and we must buy more that is made in Europe. That is key,” Macron said.
Thursday's speech came less than two months before a pivotal European Parliament election.
Macron, an avid advocate of a united and assertive Europe, also rallied support for his centrist Renaissance party before the June 6-9 vote as far-right parties lead the moderate coalitions in the polls. He called for safeguarding democratic values as the “authoritarian model” was becoming “more popular” across the continent.
The war in Ukraine and immigration are top priorities for European Union voters, according to polls. Far-right parties have gained support by criticizing Macron’s government policies on both issues. Macron acknowledged divisions on immigration policies, including on asylum and deportation rules for those who have arrived to Europe illegally.
He emphasized the need for an effective response and Europe-wide coordination for curbing illegal immigration, closer cooperation with immigrants' countries of origin and a unified, relentless fight against human traffickers.
Macron criticized the idea of striking an agreement, as Britain as done, with countries in Africa and elsewhere to transfer immigrants there.
“This is a betrayal of our values that ultimately leads us to dependency on other counties,” Macron said.
The British government earlier this week approved a law allowing the deportation of some migrants who enter the country illegally to Rwanda.
Macron lost his majority in France’s most influential house of parliament, the National Assembly, after the 2022 election to the far-left coalition and the far-right National Rally party.
The social situation in France remains tense as Paris prepares to host the Olympic Games this summer, amid protests from teachers and police officers, and farmer demonstrations in recent weeks. The protests follow huge rallies last year against Macron’s ultimately successful proposal to increase the retirement age from 62 to 64.
Barbara Surk reported from Nice, France. Lorne Cook contributed to this report from Brussels.
French President Emmanuel Macron delivers a speech on Europe in the amphitheater of the Sorbonne University, Thursday, April 25 in Paris. 2024. French President Emmanuel Macron will outline his vision for Europe as a more assertive global power at the backdrop of war in Ukraine, security, and economic challenges in a speech ahead of pivotal election for the European Parliament in June. (Christophe Petit Tesson, Pool via AP)
French President Emmanuel Macron delivers a speech on Europe in the amphitheater of the Sorbonne University, Thursday, April 25 in Paris. 2024. French President Emmanuel Macron will outline his vision for Europe as a more assertive global power at the backdrop of war in Ukraine, security, and economic challenges in a speech ahead of pivotal election for the European Parliament in June. (Christophe Petit Tesson, Pool via AP)
French President Emmanuel Macron delivers a speech on Europe in the amphitheater of the Sorbonne University, Thursday, April 25 in Paris. 2024. French President Emmanuel Macron will outline his vision for Europe as a more assertive global power at the backdrop of war in Ukraine, security, and economic challenges in a speech ahead of pivotal election for the European Parliament in June. (Christophe Petit Tesson, Pool via AP)
French President Emmanuel Macron delivers a speech on Europe in the amphitheater of the Sorbonne University, Thursday, April 25 in Paris. 2024. French President Emmanuel Macron will outline his vision for Europe as a more assertive global power at the backdrop of war in Ukraine, security, and economic challenges in a speech ahead of pivotal election for the European Parliament in June. (Christophe Petit Tesson, Pool via AP)
French President Emmanuel Macron delivers a speech on Europe in the amphitheater of the Sorbonne University, Thursday, April 25 in Paris. 2024. French President Emmanuel Macron will outline his vision for Europe as a more assertive global power at the backdrop of war in Ukraine, security, and economic challenges in a speech ahead of pivotal election for the European Parliament in June. (Christophe Petit Tesson, Pool via AP)
French President Emmanuel Macron delivers a speech on Europe in the amphitheater of the Sorbonne University, Thursday, April 25 in Paris. 2024. French President Emmanuel Macron will outline his vision for Europe as a more assertive global power at the backdrop of war in Ukraine, security, and economic challenges in a speech ahead of pivotal election for the European Parliament in June. (Christophe Petit Tesson, Pool via AP)
French President Emmanuel Macron delivers a speech on Europe in the amphitheater of the Sorbonne University, Thursday, April 25 in Paris. 2024. French President Emmanuel Macron will outline his vision for Europe as a more assertive global power at the backdrop of war in Ukraine, security, and economic challenges in a speech ahead of pivotal election for the European Parliament in June. (Christophe Petit Tesson, Pool via AP)
French President Emmanuel Macron delivers a speech on Europe in the amphitheater of the Sorbonne University, Thursday, April 25 in Paris. 2024. French President Emmanuel Macron will outline his vision for Europe as a more assertive global power at the backdrop of war in Ukraine, security, and economic challenges in a speech ahead of pivotal election for the European Parliament in June. (Christophe Petit Tesson, Pool via AP)
French President Emmanuel Macron arrives to deliver a speech on Europe in the amphitheater of the Sorbonne University, Thursday, April 25 in Paris. 2024. French President Emmanuel Macron will outline his vision for Europe as a more assertive global power at the backdrop of war in Ukraine, security, and economic challenges in a speech ahead of pivotal election for the European Parliament in June. (Christophe Petit Tesson, Pool via AP)
French President Emmanuel Macron delivers a speech on Europe in the amphitheater of the Sorbonne University, Thursday, April 25 in Paris. 2024. French President Emmanuel Macron will outline his vision for Europe as a more assertive global power at the backdrop of war in Ukraine, security, and economic challenges in a speech ahead of pivotal election for the European Parliament in June. (Christophe Petit Tesson, Pool via AP)
French President Emmanuel Macron delivers a speech on Europe in the amphitheater of the Sorbonne University, Thursday, April 25 in Paris. 2024. French President Emmanuel Macron will outline his vision for Europe as a more assertive global power at the backdrop of war in Ukraine, security, and economic challenges in a speech ahead of pivotal election for the European Parliament in June. (Christophe Petit Tesson, Pool via AP)
French President Emmanuel Macron speaks during a media conference at an EU summit in Brussels, Thursday, April 18, 2024. European Union leaders on Wednesday debated a new "European Competitiveness Deal" aimed at helping the 27-nation bloc close the gap with Chinese and American rivals amid fears the region's industries will otherwise be left behind for good. (AP Photo/Omar Havana)
