Presidential politics move fast. What we're watching heading into a new week on the 2020 campaign:
Days to Iowa caucuses: 84
Days to general election: 358
THE NARRATIVE
Whether he does or doesn't run, New York billionaire Michael Bloomberg has escalated doubts about front-runners Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren and pushed Democratic anxiety to new heights. There may be more than a dozen candidates still in the race, but several ambitious Democrats who initially opted to bypass a 2020 bid are suddenly being taken seriously as potential candidates. Less than three months before voting begins, the Democratic primary feels increasingly unsettled.
THE BIG QUESTIONS
Bloomberg: Will he or won't he?
He is one of the richest men on the planet and he's taking steps toward making a late entrance in the Democratic primary. Bloomberg's advisers insist that he's yet to make a final decision, so do not assume he will run — especially given the hostile reception he received from some in his adopted party's base. Still, his extraordinary wealth means he can be a major factor in the race.
How much does New Hampshire matter in 2020?
The epicenter of the Democratic primary has clearly shifted to New Hampshire in recent weeks, raising questions about how aggressively candidates will compete in the first-in-the-nation-primary state. This week offers a reminder that the top-tier candidates still have a lot to lose there. The stakes are particularly high for Elizabeth Warren, who is locked in what many consider a must-win contest against progressive rival Bernie Sanders because of their perceived neighbor-state advantage. Warren is scheduled to file her formal candidacy papers in the statehouse on Wednesday. And don't sleep on Pete Buttigieg in New Hampshire. He's starting the week on a bus tour and positioning himself to exceed expectations in the Granite State, even if he doesn't win outright.
Trump's GOP is losing the suburbs. Do they care?
It's hard to believe that it's only been a week since Democrats scored victories in Virginia, Pennsylvania and Kentucky that highlighted the Republican Party's acute problem in the suburbs. Republican-leaning voters there, particularly women, have been quite clear that they don't like President Donald Trump's leadership and the GOP's position on gun violence, among other issues. Trump and his allies largely ignored the problem in the days immediately after the election. If their silence continues this week, we'll know just how seriously Republicans are taking their suburban problem.
Will the impeachment shadow help or hurt?
The biggest week so far in the Democrats' impeachment inquiry is upon us. Televised hearings beginning on Wednesday will overshadow the 2020 presidential contest for much of the week. The impeachment inquiry effectively froze the Democratic race when it began earlier in the fall, which seemed to benefit Biden. Will that trend continue this week?
This is a big week for Trump primary challengers. Does it matter?
We forgive you for not having this on your calendars, but three Republican presidential candidates are expected to file formal candidacy papers this week in New Hampshire, which has emerged as ground zero for Republican opposition to the Republican president — to the extent it exists anywhere. Former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld, former Illinois congressman Joe Walsh and former South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford have to file by Friday's deadline. It's easy to laugh them off, but their candidacies represent a larger threat to Trump: whether Republicans concerned about the president — and there are many — can be persuaded to show up to vote for him next fall or not.
THE FINAL THOUGHT
The incumbent president is facing an escalating impeachment inquiry and multiple primary challenges, while Bloomberg has exposed major concerns with the Democratic Party's leading candidates. This isn't where either party wants to be.
2020 Watch runs every Monday and provides a look at the week ahead in the 2020 election.
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UNITED NATIONS (AP) — Russia on Wednesday vetoed a U.N. resolution sponsored by the United States and Japan calling on all nations to prevent a dangerous nuclear arms race in outer space, calling it “a dirty spectacle” that cherry picks weapons of mass destruction from all other weapons that should also be banned.
The vote in the 15-member Security Council was 13 in favor, Russia opposed and China abstaining.
The resolution would have called on all countries not to develop or deploy nuclear arms or other weapons of mass destruction in space, as banned under a 1967 international treaty that included the U.S. and Russia, and to agree to the need to verify compliance.
U.S. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield said after the vote that Russian President Vladimir Putin has said Moscow has no intention of deploying nuclear weapons in space.
“Today’s veto begs the question: Why? Why, if you are following the rules, would you not support a resolution that reaffirms them? What could you possibly be hiding,” she asked. “It’s baffling. And it’s a shame.”
Russia’s U.N. Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia dismissed the resolution as “absolutely absurd and politicized,” and said it didn’t go far enough in banning all types of weapons in space.
Russia and China proposed an amendment to the U.S.-Japan draft that would call on all countries, especially those with major space capabilities, “to prevent for all time the placement of weapons in outer space, and the threat of use of force in outer spaces.”
The vote was 7 countries in favor, 7 against, and one abstention and the amendment was defeated because it failed to get the minimum 9 “yes” votes required for adoption.
The U.S. opposed the amendment, and after the vote Nebenzia addressed the U.S. ambassador saying: “We want a ban on the placement of weapons of any kind in outer space, not just WMDs (weapons of mass destruction). But you don’t want that. And let me ask you that very same question. Why?”
He said much of the U.S. and Japan’s actions become clear “if we recall that the U.S. and their allies announced some time ago plans to place weapons … in outer space.”
Nebenzia accused the U.S. of blocking a Russian-Chinese proposal since 2008 for a treaty against putting weapons in outer space.
Thomas-Greenfield accused Russia of undermining global treaties to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons, irresponsibly invoking “dangerous nuclear rhetoric,” walking away from several of its arms control obligations, and refusing to engage “in substantive discussions around arms control or risk reduction.”
She called Wednesday’s vote “a real missed opportunity to rebuild much-needed trust in existing arms control obligations.”
Thomas-Greenfield’s announcement of the resolution on March 18 followed White House confirmation in February that Russia has obtained a “troubling” anti-satellite weapon capability, although such a weapon is not operational yet.
Putin declared later that Moscow has no intention of deploying nuclear weapons in space, claiming that the country has only developed space capabilities similar to those of the U.S.
Thomas-Greenfield said before the vote that the world is just beginning to understand “the catastrophic ramifications of a nuclear explosion in space.”
It could destroy “thousands of satellites operated by countries and companies around the world — and wipe out the vital communications, scientific, meteorological, agricultural, commercial, and national security services we all depend on,” she said.
The defeated draft resolution said “the prevention of an arms race in outer space would avert a grave danger for international peace and security.” It would have urged all countries carrying out activities in exploring and using outer space to comply with international law and the U.N. Charter.
The draft would have affirmed that countries that ratified the 1967 Outer Space Treaty must comply with their obligations not to put in orbit around the Earth “any objects” with weapons of mass destruction, or install them “on celestial bodies, or station such weapons in outer space.”
The treaty, ratified by some 114 countries, including the U.S. and Russia, prohibits the deployment of “nuclear weapons or any other kinds of weapons of mass destruction” in orbit or the stationing of “weapons in outer space in any other manner.”
The draft resolution emphasized “the necessity of further measures, including political commitments and legally binding instruments, with appropriate and effective provisions for verification, to prevent an arms race in outer space in all its aspects.”
It reiterated that the U.N. Conference on Disarmament, based in Geneva, has the primary responsibility to negotiate agreements on preventing an arms race in outer space.
The 65-nation body has achieved few results and has largely devolved into a venue for countries to voice criticism of others’ weapons programs or defend their own. The draft resolution would have urged the conference “to adopt and implement a balanced and comprehensive program of work.”
At the March council meeting where the U.S.-Japan initiative was launched, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres warned that “geopolitical tensions and mistrust have escalated the risk of nuclear warfare to its highest point in decades.”
He said the movie “Oppenheimer” about Robert Oppenheimer, who directed the U.S. project during World War II that developed the atomic bomb, “brought the harsh reality of nuclear doomsday to vivid life for millions around the world.”
“Humanity cannot survive a sequel to Oppenheimer,” the U.N. chief said.
United States Ambassador and Representative to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield addresses members of the U.N. Security Council before voting during a meeting on Non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, Wednesday, April 24, 2024 at United Nations headquarters. (AP Photo/Eduardo Munoz Alvarez)
FILE - U.S. Ambassador to United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield speaks on Thursday, April 18, 2024, in Tokyo. The U.N. Security Council is set to vote Wednesday, April 24, 2024, on a resolution announced by Thomas-Greenfield, calling on all nations to prevent a dangerous nuclear arms race in outer space. It is likely to be vetoed by Russia. (AP Photo/Eugene Hoshiko, Pool, File)
