There's a new stat grabbing Bundesliga fans' attention. It's not expected goals, distance run or passing accuracy, but the coronavirus infection rate.
The return of fans to the German soccer league last week came with a catch. If there are too many infections in the host city, a circuit-breaker rule kicks in and fans are banned again. That's causing chaos for clubs.
Schalke fans face uncertainty over whether they can attend the first home game of the season Saturday against Werder Bremen. The club could otherwise have allowed in as many as 12,000 supporters, but the infection rate remains above the circuit-breaker level despite a slight drop Thursday.
A Stuttgart fan waits for the start of the German Bundesliga soccer match between VfB Stuttgart and SC Freiburg, Germany, Saturday, Sept. 19, 2020. 8500 spectators are allowed to watch the game in the stadium. (AP PhotoMatthias Schrader)
Last week, high infection rates stopped Bayern Munich from hosting fans against Schalke in the season opener after the mayor said it would send the wrong message.
Less than 24 hours before Cologne was due to host Hoffenheim in front of fans, the circuit breaker kicked in there too. An hour's travel away, Borussia Dortmund hosted 9,300 fans for its 3-0 win over Borussia Mönchengladbach.
The magic number is 35 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants over a seven-day period. Any higher, and games should be held without fans. Schalke's home city of Gelsenkirchen was at 39.1 on Wednesday and 37.6 on Thursday according to the Robert Koch Institute, Germany’s national disease control center.
The circuit breaker rule was a compromise added during tense talks between state politicians last week, just before the league season began. Otherwise, supporters are allowed to attend up to 20% of the stadium capacity, though some local officials have set their own, lower limits.
Besides Schalke, all other Bundesliga games this weekend are due to have at least some home fans. That includes Arminia Bielefeld's first home game in the top division since 2009 against Cologne and Borussia Dortmund's visit to Augsburg, both Saturday, and Hoffenheim hosting Bayern on Sunday.
The uncertainty over fans is another factor putting pressure on Schalke in a calamitous 2020 for the club. A Champions League last-16 club as recently as March 2019, Schalke has not won a league game since January and was hammered 8-0 by Bayern last week. It's only scored nine Bundesliga goals all year.
Pressure is building on Schalke coach David Wagner, who is on the third-longest winless run (17) of any Bundesliga coach, according to league statistics. Jochen Schneider, the club's sporting director, said he expects more from the coaching staff ahead of the Bremen match.
“I expect a clear increase in performance and for that to be reflected in the result,” Schneider said Saturday.
Schalke has more to lose than most if fans can't come back. The coronavirus wiped out game-day revenue and helped expose the club's fragile financial situation, provoking warnings that Schalke could face insolvency if it didn't act. Schalke has slashed spending this season and sold U.S. midfielder Weston McKennie to Juventus.
That followed years of the club spending beyond its means in a bet that it could qualify regularly for the Champions League and the resulting TV revenue, something Schalke has only managed once since 2015. The cuts are likely to mean Schalke is no longer capable of fighting for any European qualification, club management has admitted.
Saturday's game against Bremen is a meeting of two former title challengers, now both in crisis mode. Bremen only avoided relegation last season with a playoff win over second-tier Heidenheim and lost its 2020-21 opener 4-1 to Hertha Berlin.
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Bayern Munich is used to winning the Bundesliga title. Even so, this one is special.
Not only would it be Bayern's 10th in a row — a feat never achieved in any of Europe's top five leagues — but the club can clinch the title at home on Saturday with a win in the “Klassiker” against Borussia Dortmund.
Bayern's stadium will be packed for the match, making a difference from twice celebrating titles in empty arenas amid the pandemic.
Bayern's Serge Gnabry, left, and Arminia's Manuel Prietl challenge for the ball during the German Bundesliga soccer match between Arminia Bielefeld and Bayern Munich in Bielefeld, Germany, Sunday, April 17, 2022. (AP PhotoMartin Meissner)
The mood in Munich on Thursday was relaxed, with Bayern coach Julian Nagelsmann already discussing his players' tradition of celebrating league wins by pouring beer over the coach.
“Beer is supposed to be quite good for your hair,” he joked.
Still, Nagelsmann admitted that winning the Bundesliga again has “perhaps a little bit less meaning in Munich" than the Champions League, where Bayern was eliminated in the quarterfinals with a surprise loss to Villarreal.
Bayern's Jamal Musiala, down, is celebrated by Bayern's Alphonso Davies, up, after scoring his side's third goal during the German Bundesliga soccer match between Arminia Bielefeld and Bayern Munich in Bielefeld, Germany, Sunday, April 17, 2022. (AP PhotoMartin Meissner)
“On Saturday, it's still a special situation to do it against Dortmund, to do it against your direct competitor in your own stadium with a full house,” he said.
Ten titles in a row would be a historic achievement for Bayern but less helpful for the Bundesliga. Stagnation at the top makes it a harder sell to international audiences.
Winning the league is just meeting minimum expectations for Nagelsmann in the first year of a five-year contract.
Dortmund's scorer Erling Haaland sits on the grass after winning the German Bundesliga soccer match between Borussia Dortmund and VfL Wolfsburg in Dortmund, Germany, Saturday, April 16, 2022. (AP PhotoMartin Meissner)
“I think that if I didn't win it with the team, then I wouldn't be the coach here any more," he said.
Dortmund trails Bayern by nine points with four games remaining and would need a big win Saturday and a dramatic Bayern collapse to have any hope for the title. Still, they would love to spoil Bayern's party.
Bayern has won its last seven meetings against Dortmund, though the last encounter was a hard-fought game which ended amid bitter recriminations. Bayern won 3-2 with two goals from Robert Lewandowski but all the focus was on referee Felix Zwayer after Dortmund midfielder Jude Bellingham used a post-game interview to recall Zwayer's links to a 2005 match-fixing case. Bellingham later was fined.
Freiburg's Lucas Hoeler, Ermedin Demirovic, Nico Schlotterbeck and Christian Guenter, from left, celebrate after winning the German Soccer Cup semifinal soccer match between Hamburger SV and SC Freiburg in Hamburg, Germany, Tuesday, April 19, 2022. (AP PhotoMartin Meissner)
It could be the last "Klassiker" for Dortmund striker Erling Haaland, with the Norwegian linked with a move to Manchester City at the end of the season. He is coming off a period of poor form after missing February with muscle problems — a worrying repeat occurrence for the 21-year-old striker — though he ended a scoring drought with two goals in last week's 6-1 rout of struggling Wolfsburg.
Outside of the top two, there's still a fight for the other Champions League places. Leipzig is in third place and Bayer Leverkusen is fourth, and both are under pressure from fifth-place Freiburg.
Freiburg, which has also reached the German Cup final, takes on Borussia Mönchengladbach on Saturday in a game which could make or break its Champions League chances.
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