Nearly three months after Belarus' authoritarian president's re-election to a sixth term in a vote widely seen as rigged, demonstrators keep swarming the streets of Belarusian cities to demand his resignation in the most massive and sustained wave of protests the ex-Soviet nation has ever seen.
While President Alexander Lukashenko has relied on massive arrests and intimidation tactics to hold on to power, the continuing rallies have cast an unprecedented challenge to his 26-year rule.
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Nearly three months after Belarus' authoritarian president's re-election to a sixth term in a vote widely seen as rigged, demonstrators keep swarming the streets of Belarusian cities to demand his resignation in the most massive and sustained wave of protests the ex-Soviet nation has ever seen.
Tsikhanouskaya, who went to Lithuania after the vote under pressure from authorities, called for a nationwide strike this week that so far has failed to halt production at state-run industrial plants forming the backbone of the Belarusian economy. But observers predict that economic troubles amid a surge in coronavirus infections will fuel discontent and steadily erode Lukashenko's grip on power.
Lukashenko this week charged that “a terrorist war” is being waged against the government “on some fronts,” accusing the largely peaceful protesters of “radicalizing." Following his orders, over 300 students are facing dismissal from their universities for taking part in protests.
But Yaroshuk noted that even though the nationwide strike hasn't materialized, the economic stagnation will likely foment unrest in the coming months.
Lukashenko’s cavalier dismissal of the coronavirus threat has added to the public frustration over the 66-year-old ex-state farm director's iron-fisted rule, helping fuel protests.
Faced with the opposition's ultimatum and the threat of a nationwide strike, Belarus on Thursday shut its borders with Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine for most visitors. Lukashenko also reshuffled his top officials this week, appointing Interior Minister Yuri Karayev and Security Council Secretary Valery Vakulchik his envoys to the westernmost Grodno and Brest regions bordering Poland and Lithuania.
Viachorka also argued that the reshuffle may reflect Lukashenko's fear that his main ally and sponsor, Russia, could be talking to his top lieutenants behind his back.
Viachorka, Tsikhanouskaya's adviser, said that the opposition will continue pushing for the creation of parallel structures of power, “exacerbating the crisis of legitimacy for Lukashenko” and pushing him into talks on a transition of power.
FILE - In this Sunday, Sept. 13, 2020 file photo, a woman covered by an old Belarusian national flag kneels in front of a riot police line as they block Belarusian opposition supporters rally protesting the official presidential election results in Minsk, Belarus. Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko has relied on massive arrests and intimidation tactics to hold on to power despite nearly three months of protests sparked by his re-election to a sixth term, but continuing protests have cast an unprecedented challenge to his 26-year rule. (TUT.by via AP, File)
FILE - In this Sunday, Aug. 23, 2020 file photo, demonstrators carry a huge historical flag of Belarus as thousands gather for a protest at the Independence square in Minsk, Belarus. Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko has relied on massive arrests and intimidation tactics to hold on to power despite nearly three months of protests sparked by his re-election to a sixth term, but continuing protests have cast an unprecedented challenge to his 26-year rule. (AP PhotoDmitri Lovetsky, File)
FILE - In this Sunday, Sept. 27, 2020 file photo, women argue with a police officer during an opposition rally to protest the official presidential election results in Minsk, Belarus. Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko has relied on massive arrests and intimidation tactics to hold on to power despite nearly three months of protests sparked by his re-election to a sixth term, but continuing protests have cast an unprecedented challenge to his 26-year rule. (AP PhotoTUT.by, File)
FILE - In this file pool photo taken on Wednesday, Sept. 23, 2020, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko takes his oath of office during his inauguration ceremony at the Palace of the Independence in Minsk, Belarus. Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko has relied on massive arrests and intimidation tactics to hold on to power despite nearly three months of protests sparked by his re-election to a sixth term, but continuing protests have cast an unprecedented challenge to his 26-year rule. (Andrei StasevichPool Photo via AP, File)
FILE - In this file photo taken from video and released by Russian Presidential Press Service, Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko talk during their meeting in the Bocharov Ruchei residence in the Black Sea resort of Sochi, Russia. Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko has relied on massive arrests and intimidation tactics to hold on to power despite nearly three months of protests sparked by his re-election to a sixth term, but continuing protests have cast an unprecedented challenge to his 26-year rule. (Russian Presidential Press Service via AP, File)
FILE - In this Saturday, Sept. 12, 2020 file photo, police officers block and detain protesters during an opposition rally to protest the official presidential election results in Minsk, Belarus. Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko has relied on massive arrests and intimidation tactics to hold on to power despite nearly three months of protests sparked by his re-election to a sixth term, but continuing protests have cast an unprecedented challenge to his 26-year rule. (AP PhotoMisha Friedman, File)
FILE - In this Wednesday, Sept. 23, 2020 file photo, a woman reacts in front of police line during a rally in Minsk, Belarus. Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko has relied on massive arrests and intimidation tactics to hold on to power despite nearly three months of protests sparked by his re-election to a sixth term, but continuing protests have cast an unprecedented challenge to his 26-year rule. (AP PhotoTUT.by, File)
FILE - In this Monday, Oct. 26, 2020 file photo, people, most of them pensioners, carry a big old Belarusian national flag during an opposition rally to protest the official presidential election results in Minsk, Belarus. Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko has relied on massive arrests and intimidation tactics to hold on to power despite nearly three months of protests sparked by his re-election to a sixth term, but continuing protests have cast an unprecedented challenge to his 26-year rule. (AP Photo, File)
FILE - In this Sunday, Oct. 4, 2020 file photo, a demonstrator is silhouetted by an old Belarusian national flag during a rally in Minsk, Belarus. Hundreds of thousands of Belarusians have been protesting daily since the Aug. 9 presidential election. Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko has relied on massive arrests and intimidation tactics to hold on to power despite nearly three months of protests sparked by his re-election to a sixth term, but continuing protests have cast an unprecedented challenge to his 26-year rule. (AP Photo, File)
FILE - In this Sunday, Oct. 25, 2020 file photo, Belarusian police block a street during an opposition rally to protest the official presidential election results in Minsk, Belarus. Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko has relied on massive arrests and intimidation tactics to hold on to power despite nearly three months of protests sparked by his re-election to a sixth term, but continuing protests have cast an unprecedented challenge to his 26-year rule. (AP Photo, File)
FILE - In this Aug. 23, 2020 file image made from video provided by the State TV and Radio Company of Belarus, Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko greets riot police officers near the Palace of Independence in Minsk, Belarus. Hundreds of thousands of Belarusians have been protesting daily since the Aug. 9 presidential election. Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko has relied on massive arrests and intimidation tactics to hold on to power despite nearly three months of protests sparked by his re-election to a sixth term, but continuing protests have cast an unprecedented challenge to his 26-year rule. (State TV and Radio Company of Belarus via AP, File)
Authorities have responded to protests triggered by Aug. 9 election that gave Lukashenko a landslide victory over Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya by unleashing a violent post-election crackdown. Police dispersed peaceful demonstrators with stun grenades and rubber bullets, detained thousands and beat hundreds, which caused protests to swell and prompted the U.S. and the European Union to introduce sanctions against Belarusian officials.
FILE - In this Aug. 10, 2020 file photo, police in Minsk, Belarus, clash with a protester after the Aug. 9 presidential election – a vote that demonstrators denounced as fraudulent. Police used tear gas, flash grenades and beatings in a harsh crackdown. Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko has relied on massive arrests and intimidation tactics to hold on to power despite nearly three months of protests sparked by his re-election to a sixth term, but continuing protests have cast an unprecedented challenge to his 26-year rule. (AP Photo, File)
Tsikhanouskaya, who went to Lithuania after the vote under pressure from authorities, called for a nationwide strike this week that so far has failed to halt production at state-run industrial plants forming the backbone of the Belarusian economy. But observers predict that economic troubles amid a surge in coronavirus infections will fuel discontent and steadily erode Lukashenko's grip on power.
By putting forward an ultimatum to Lukashenko to resign by Oct. 25 or face the strike, Tsikhanouskaya has managed to mobilize and re-invigorate her supporters after nearly three months of protests. About 200,000 demonstrators flooded the Belarusian capital last Sunday, one of the biggest rallies since the protests began. Another massive protest is planned for this Sunday.
Authorities, meanwhile, have focused on derailing the opposition efforts to stage strikes at major state factories. They have moved methodically to arrest strike organizers, threatened workers with dismissals for joining the action and deployed officers of the State Security Committee still known under its Soviet name KGB to monitor the situation at industrial plants.
FILE - In this Aug. 10, 2020 file photo, protesters carry a wounded man during clashes with police after the presidential election in Minsk, Belarus. Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko has relied on massive arrests and intimidation tactics to hold on to power despite nearly three months of protests sparked by his re-election to a sixth term, but continuing protests have cast an unprecedented challenge to his 26-year rule. (AP Photo, File)
Lukashenko this week charged that “a terrorist war” is being waged against the government “on some fronts,” accusing the largely peaceful protesters of “radicalizing." Following his orders, over 300 students are facing dismissal from their universities for taking part in protests.
While thousands of students and retirees took to the streets in Minsk pressing for Lukashenko's resignation, and some small business owners closed their doors earlier this week, most state enterprises have continued to operate as usual.
“The scared workers couldn’t be expected to back the opposition’s political demands,” said Alexander Yaroshuk, the leader of the Congress of Democratic Unions, an association of independent labor unions. “The opposition only has managed to create some hotbeds of strikes at factories, which already can be considered a big achievement in conditions when KGB officers have flooded factory shops and raised pressure on strike organizing committees.”
FILE - In this Sunday, Sept. 6, 2020 file photo, people with their children stand at a barbed wire fence in front of a police line toward the Independence Palace, residence of the President Alexander Lukashenko, during Belarusian opposition supporters rally in Minsk, Belarus. Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko has relied on massive arrests and intimidation tactics to hold on to power despite nearly three months of protests sparked by his re-election to a sixth term, but continuing protests have cast an unprecedented challenge to his 26-year rule. (AP PhotoTUT.by, File)
But Yaroshuk noted that even though the nationwide strike hasn't materialized, the economic stagnation will likely foment unrest in the coming months.
“The worsening economic situation could transform isolated hotbeds into the flames of a real strike,” he said.
According to the official statistics, the Belarusian economy has contracted by 1.3% in the first nine months of the year as the nation's main export markets have shrunk under the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.
FILE - In this Sunday, Aug. 9, 2020 file photo, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, candidate for the presidential elections, casts her ballot at a polling station during the presidential election in Minsk, Belarus. Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko has relied on massive arrests and intimidation tactics to hold on to power despite nearly three months of protests sparked by his re-election to a sixth term, but continuing protests have cast an unprecedented challenge to his 26-year rule. (AP Photo, File)
Lukashenko’s cavalier dismissal of the coronavirus threat has added to the public frustration over the 66-year-old ex-state farm director's iron-fisted rule, helping fuel protests.
Facing a run on the national currency amid the unrest, the Belarusian government has spent $1.5 billion, or about one-fifth of the nation's hard currency reserves, to shore up the Belarusian ruble.
“The economy is becoming Lukashenko's main enemy,” said Minsk-based analyst Valery Karbalevich. “Lukashenko needs money to pay workers for their loyalty and law enforcement officers for their brutality. His regime is quickly running out of cash and losing support,”
FILE - In this Monday, Aug. 10, 2020 file photo, a protester recognized as Alexander Taraikovsky with a wound during a rally after the Belarusian presidential election in Minsk, Belarus. An Associated Press cameraman on Monday recorded a protester falling and then lying still. German viewed the video and confidently said it was Taraikovsky. Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko has relied on massive arrests and intimidation tactics to hold on to power despite nearly three months of protests sparked by his re-election to a sixth term, but continuing protests have cast an unprecedented challenge to his 26-year rule. (AP PhotoMstyslav Chernov, File)
Faced with the opposition's ultimatum and the threat of a nationwide strike, Belarus on Thursday shut its borders with Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine for most visitors. Lukashenko also reshuffled his top officials this week, appointing Interior Minister Yuri Karayev and Security Council Secretary Valery Vakulchik his envoys to the westernmost Grodno and Brest regions bordering Poland and Lithuania.
Tsikhanouskaya's adviser Franak Viachorka, argued that the shakeup reflected Lukashenko's nervousness.
“Lukashenko can't trust local authorities in western regions, and so he has to put his trusted law enforcement officials in charge there,” Viachorka said.
FILE - In this Sunday, Aug. 30, 2020 file photo, Maria Kolesnikova, one of Belarus' opposition leaders, gestures during a rally in Minsk, Belarus. Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko has relied on massive arrests and intimidation tactics to hold on to power despite nearly three months of protests sparked by his re-election to a sixth term, but continuing protests have cast an unprecedented challenge to his 26-year rule. (Tut.By via AP, File)
Viachorka also argued that the reshuffle may reflect Lukashenko's fear that his main ally and sponsor, Russia, could be talking to his top lieutenants behind his back.
The Kremlin has backed Lukashenko amid Western pressure and provided a $1.5-billion loan to help refinance Belarus' debt to Russia. But many observers believe that Moscow could reach out quietly to Lukashenko's entourage on a possible successor as his authority crumbles.
“Lukashenko has failed to quash the protests in nearly three months, and that shows the scale of discontent in the country and pushes the Kremlin to search for new scenarios and partners in Belarus,” Karbalevich said. “It opens a window of opportunity for the opposition to hold talks with Moscow, which until that moment has refused to talk to Tsikhanouskaya and her team.”
FILE - This Sunday, Aug. 23, 2020 file photo made from video provided by the State TV and Radio Company of Belarus, shows Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko armed with a Kalashnikov-type rifle near the Palace of Independence in Minsk, Belarus. Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko has relied on massive arrests and intimidation tactics to hold on to power despite nearly three months of protests sparked by his re-election to a sixth term, but continuing protests have cast an unprecedented challenge to his 26-year rule. (State TV and Radio Company of Belarus via AP, File)
Viachorka, Tsikhanouskaya's adviser, said that the opposition will continue pushing for the creation of parallel structures of power, “exacerbating the crisis of legitimacy for Lukashenko” and pushing him into talks on a transition of power.
FILE - In this Monday, Aug. 10, 2020 file photo, police officers kick a demonstrator during a mass protest following presidential election in Minsk, Belarus. Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko has relied on massive arrests and intimidation tactics to hold on to power despite nearly three months of protests sparked by his re-election to a sixth term, but continuing protests have cast an unprecedented challenge to his 26-year rule. (AP Photo, File)
FILE - In this Sunday, Sept. 13, 2020 file photo, a woman covered by an old Belarusian national flag kneels in front of a riot police line as they block Belarusian opposition supporters rally protesting the official presidential election results in Minsk, Belarus. Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko has relied on massive arrests and intimidation tactics to hold on to power despite nearly three months of protests sparked by his re-election to a sixth term, but continuing protests have cast an unprecedented challenge to his 26-year rule. (TUT.by via AP, File)
FILE - In this Sunday, Aug. 23, 2020 file photo, demonstrators carry a huge historical flag of Belarus as thousands gather for a protest at the Independence square in Minsk, Belarus. Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko has relied on massive arrests and intimidation tactics to hold on to power despite nearly three months of protests sparked by his re-election to a sixth term, but continuing protests have cast an unprecedented challenge to his 26-year rule. (AP PhotoDmitri Lovetsky, File)
FILE - In this Sunday, Sept. 27, 2020 file photo, women argue with a police officer during an opposition rally to protest the official presidential election results in Minsk, Belarus. Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko has relied on massive arrests and intimidation tactics to hold on to power despite nearly three months of protests sparked by his re-election to a sixth term, but continuing protests have cast an unprecedented challenge to his 26-year rule. (AP PhotoTUT.by, File)
FILE - In this file pool photo taken on Wednesday, Sept. 23, 2020, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko takes his oath of office during his inauguration ceremony at the Palace of the Independence in Minsk, Belarus. Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko has relied on massive arrests and intimidation tactics to hold on to power despite nearly three months of protests sparked by his re-election to a sixth term, but continuing protests have cast an unprecedented challenge to his 26-year rule. (Andrei StasevichPool Photo via AP, File)
FILE - In this file photo taken from video and released by Russian Presidential Press Service, Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko talk during their meeting in the Bocharov Ruchei residence in the Black Sea resort of Sochi, Russia. Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko has relied on massive arrests and intimidation tactics to hold on to power despite nearly three months of protests sparked by his re-election to a sixth term, but continuing protests have cast an unprecedented challenge to his 26-year rule. (Russian Presidential Press Service via AP, File)
FILE - In this Saturday, Sept. 12, 2020 file photo, police officers block and detain protesters during an opposition rally to protest the official presidential election results in Minsk, Belarus. Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko has relied on massive arrests and intimidation tactics to hold on to power despite nearly three months of protests sparked by his re-election to a sixth term, but continuing protests have cast an unprecedented challenge to his 26-year rule. (AP PhotoMisha Friedman, File)
FILE - In this Wednesday, Sept. 23, 2020 file photo, a woman reacts in front of police line during a rally in Minsk, Belarus. Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko has relied on massive arrests and intimidation tactics to hold on to power despite nearly three months of protests sparked by his re-election to a sixth term, but continuing protests have cast an unprecedented challenge to his 26-year rule. (AP PhotoTUT.by, File)
FILE - In this Monday, Oct. 26, 2020 file photo, people, most of them pensioners, carry a big old Belarusian national flag during an opposition rally to protest the official presidential election results in Minsk, Belarus. Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko has relied on massive arrests and intimidation tactics to hold on to power despite nearly three months of protests sparked by his re-election to a sixth term, but continuing protests have cast an unprecedented challenge to his 26-year rule. (AP Photo, File)
FILE - In this Sunday, Oct. 4, 2020 file photo, a demonstrator is silhouetted by an old Belarusian national flag during a rally in Minsk, Belarus. Hundreds of thousands of Belarusians have been protesting daily since the Aug. 9 presidential election. Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko has relied on massive arrests and intimidation tactics to hold on to power despite nearly three months of protests sparked by his re-election to a sixth term, but continuing protests have cast an unprecedented challenge to his 26-year rule. (AP Photo, File)
FILE - In this Sunday, Oct. 25, 2020 file photo, Belarusian police block a street during an opposition rally to protest the official presidential election results in Minsk, Belarus. Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko has relied on massive arrests and intimidation tactics to hold on to power despite nearly three months of protests sparked by his re-election to a sixth term, but continuing protests have cast an unprecedented challenge to his 26-year rule. (AP Photo, File)
FILE - In this Aug. 23, 2020 file image made from video provided by the State TV and Radio Company of Belarus, Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko greets riot police officers near the Palace of Independence in Minsk, Belarus. Hundreds of thousands of Belarusians have been protesting daily since the Aug. 9 presidential election. Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko has relied on massive arrests and intimidation tactics to hold on to power despite nearly three months of protests sparked by his re-election to a sixth term, but continuing protests have cast an unprecedented challenge to his 26-year rule. (State TV and Radio Company of Belarus via AP, File)