SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — Daniel Kahneman, a psychologist who won a Nobel Prize in economics for his insights into how ingrained neurological biases influence decision making, died Wednesday at the age of 90.
Kahneman and his longtime collaborator Amos Tversky reshaped the field of economics, which prior to their work mostly assumed that people were “rational actors” capable of clearly evaluating choices such as which car to buy or which job to take. The pair's research — which Kahneman described for lay audiences in his best-selling 2011 book “Thinking, Fast and Slow” — focused on how much decision-making is shaped by subterranean quirks and mental shortcuts that can distort our thoughts in irrational yet predictable ways.
Take, for instance, false confidence in predictions. In an excerpt from his book, Kahneman described a “leaderless group” challenge used by the Israeli army's Psychology Branch to assess future leadership potential. Eight candidates, all unknowns to one another, had to cross a six-foot wall together using only a long log — without touching the wall or the ground with the log, or touching the wall themselves.
FILE - Psychology professor Daniel Kahneman poses, Oct. 9, 2002, at Princeton University in Princeton, N.J. Kahneman, a psychologist who won a Nobel Prize in economics for his insights into how ingrained neurological biases influence decision making, died Wednesday, March 27, 2024, at the age of 90. (AP Photo/Daniel Hulshizer, File)
Observers of the test — including Kahneman himself, who was born in Tel Aviv and did his Israeli national service in the 1950s — confidently identified leaders-in-the-making from these challenges, only to learn later that their assessments bore little relation to how the same soldiers performed at officer training school. The kicker: This fact didn't dent the group's confidence in its own judgments, which seemed intuitively obvious — and yet also continued to fail at predicting leadership potential.
“It was the first cognitive illusion I discovered,” Kahneman later wrote. He coined the phrase “ the illusion of validity ” to describe the phenomenon.
Kahneman’s partner, Barbara Tversky — the widow of Amos Tversky — confirmed his death to The Associated Press. Tversky, herself a Stanford University emerita professor of psychology, said the family is not disclosing the location or cause of death.
Kahneman's decades-long partnership with Tversky began in 1969 when the two collaborated on a paper analyzing researcher intuitions about statistical methods in their work. “The experience was magical,” Kahneman later wrote in his Nobel autobiography. “Amos was often described by people who knew him as the smartest person they knew. He was also very funny ... and the result was that we could spend hours of solid work in continuous mirth.”
The two worked together so closely that they flipped a coin to determine which of them would be the lead author on their first paper, and thereafter simply alternated that honor for decades.
“Amos and I shared the wonder of together owning a goose that could lay golden eggs -– a joint mind that was better than our separate minds,” Kahneman wrote.
FILE - President Barack Obama awards psychologist Daniel Kahneman with the Presidential Medal of Freedom, Nov. 20, 2013, during a ceremony in the East Room of the White House in Washington. Kahneman, a psychologist who won a Nobel Prize in economics for his insights into how ingrained neurological biases influence decision making, died Wednesday, March 27, 2024, at the age of 90. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci, File)
Kahneman and Tversky began studying decision making in 1974 and quickly hit upon the central insight that people react far more intensely to losses than to equivalent gains. This is the now-common notion of “loss aversion,” which among other things helps explain why many people prefer status quo choices when making decisions. Combined with other findings, the pair developed a theory of risky choice they eventually named “prospect theory.”
Kahneman received the Nobel Prize in economics in 2002 for these and other contributions that ended up underpinning the discipline now known as behavioral economics. Economists say Tversky would certainly have shared the prize had he not died in 1996. The Nobel is not awarded posthumously.
FILE - Psychology professor Daniel Kahneman, left, a U.S. and Israeli citizen based at Princeton University, and his wife Anne Treisman, also a psychology professor at the university, have champagne following a news conference at the school in Princeton, N.J., to give his reaction to winning the Nobel prize in economics, Oct. 9, 2002. Kahneman died Wednesday, March 27, 2024, at the age of 90. (AP Photo/Daniel Hulshizer, File)
BALTIMORE (AP) — Ryan Mountcastle and Jorge Mateo each homered and drove in two runs to lift the Baltimore Orioles to a series-deciding 7-2 victory over the New York Yankees on Thursday.
Ryan McKenna also connected and Jordan Westburg’s two-run triple helped the Orioles complete a four-run fifth to chase Yankees starter Carlos Rodón (2-2) and secure a third win of the four-game set, the first this season between likely AL East contenders. The Orioles moved one game ahead of the Yankees in the division.
Righty Kyle Bradish allowed one run in 4 2/3 innings in his first start after beginning the season on the 15-day injured list with a UCL strain. Keegan Akin (1-0) retired four batters while allowing a run in middle relief.
“That might've been our best pitched series, honestly,” said Baltimore manager Brandon Hyde, whose staff allowed six runs in the four games. “From the starts we got to how the bullpen pitched against a really good offense.”
Gleyber Torres hit his first home run but also made the Yankees’ third error of the series to help extend the game’s decisive inning.
“He's got to secure the ball,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said of Torres, who dropped the ball trying to barehand shortstop Anthony Volpe's feed on a potential double play. “He's made that play a lot. Didn't in that spot.”
Rodón yielded all seven Baltimore runs — six earned — on eight hits in his shortest outing of 2024.
He escaped his bases-loaded, no-out jam in the second before Mountcastle’s solo shot in the third, and Mateo’s and McKenna’s in the fourth.
“Just being aggressive,” McKenna said of the Orioles' adjustments. “I think guys started taking pitchers' pitches against him, started barreling up some more.”
After Mountcastle singled in another run in the fifth, Anthony Santander grounded the potential double-play ball that Torres' gaffe turned into a two-on, none-out situation.
A visit from pitching coach Matt Blake followed, but Westburg drove Rodón’s 2-1 slider down the middle to the base of the wall in left-center to plate both runners, then came home on Mateo’s sacrifice fly off newly entered reliever Ron Marinaccio.
“I thought we had (Adley) Rutschman struck out, and then we don't turn the double play there,” Boone said of the inning.
Bradish threw 51 of 84 pitches for strikes in his return from a rehab assignment that ended more quickly than some expected.
The fourth-place finisher in the 2023 AL Cy Young vote escaped a bases-loaded, two-out jam in the first and left with runners on the corners in the fifth before Akin induced Anthony Rizzo into a popout to short.
“I think this clubhouse is pretty excited to get someone of that caliber back on the field,” Orioles catcher James McCann said.
Yankees: LF Alex Verdugo returned to the lineup and batted sixth after missing three games on the paternity list. ... Optioned C Carlos Narvaez to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.
Orioles: Activated Bradish and designated RHP Yohan Ramirez for assignment. ... With Bradish making Thursday's start, LHP John Means (forearm strain) will make his first start of the season on Saturday after he was activated from the injured list on Wednesday. ... OF Austin Hays (left calf strain) took batting practice and did on-field drills and could go on a rehab assignment soon, Hyde said.
Yankees: RHP Marcus Stroman (2-1, 3.69) looks to rebound from a four-inning outing — his shortest of the season — in the opener of a six-game homestand Friday night against Detroit.
Orioles: RHP Cole Irvin (2-1, 3.49) tries to extend his stretch of 14 1/3 scoreless innings when Baltimore begins a five-game trip at Cincinnati on Friday night.
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Baltimore Orioles' Anthony Santander (25) and Jorge Mateo (3) celebrate after a baseball game against the New York Yankees, Thursday, May 2, 2024, in Baltimore. The Orioles won 7-2. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)
Baltimore Orioles relief pitcher Cionel Perez (58) celebrates with catcher James McCann, left, after a baseball game against the New York Yankees, Thursday, May 2, 2024, in Baltimore. The Orioles won 7-2. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)
Baltimore Orioles' Ryan Mountcastle, left, celebrates his home run as New York Yankees catcher Austin Wells looks on at right, during the third inning of a baseball game, Thursday, May 2, 2024, in Baltimore. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)
Baltimore Orioles' Jorge Mateo, left, celebrates his home run during the fourth inning of a baseball game as New York Yankees catcher Austin Wells looks on at lower right, Thursday, May 2, 2024, in Baltimore. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)
Baltimore Orioles' Ryan McKenna, left, celebrates his home run with Gunnar Henderson, right, during the fourth inning of a baseball game against the New York Yankees, Thursday, May 2, 2024, in Baltimore. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)
Baltimore Orioles' Jorge Mateo celebrates his home run during the fourth inning of a baseball game against the New York Yankees, Thursday, May 2, 2024, in Baltimore. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)
New York Yankees' Juan Soto motions towards the outfield during his at-bat in the third inning of a baseball game against the Baltimore Orioles, Thursday, May 2, 2024, in Baltimore. Orioles catcher James McCann is at left. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)
Baltimore Orioles' Jordan Westburg (11) gestures at third base after he drove in two runs with a triple during the fifth inning of a baseball game against the New York Yankees, Thursday, May 2, 2024, in Baltimore. Orioles third base coach Tony Mansolino is at left. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)
Baltimore Orioles' Adley Rutschman (35) is greeted by Anthony Santander, left, after he scored on a single by Ryan Mountcastle during the fifth inning of a baseball game against the New York Yankees, Thursday, May 2, 2024, in Baltimore. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)
New York Yankees manager Aaron Boone, left, pulls starting pitcher Carlos Rodon, second from left, during the fifth inning of a baseball game against the Baltimore Orioles, Thursday, May 2, 2024, in Baltimore. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)
New York Yankees starting pitcher Carlos Rodon walks back to the dugout after he was pulled during the fifth inning of a baseball game against the Baltimore Orioles, Thursday, May 2, 2024, in Baltimore. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)
New York Yankees left fielder Alex Verdugo prepares to make a catch on a sacrifice fly by Baltimore Orioles' Jorge Mateo during the fifth inning of a baseball game, Thursday, May 2, 2024, in Baltimore. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)
