Israel says it will retaliate against Iran. These are the risks that could pose to Israel

JERUSALEM (AP) — Israel is vowing to retaliate against Iran, risking further expanding the shadow war between the two foes into a direct conflict after an Iranian attack over the weekend sent hundreds of drones and missiles toward Israel.

Israeli officials have not said how or when they might strike. But as countries around the world urge Israel to show restraint and the threat of a multi-front war mounts, it’s clear that a direct Israeli attack on Iranian soil would lead to major fallout.

Iran says it carried out the strike to avenge an Israeli airstrike that killed two Iranian generals in Syria on April 1. It has pledged a much tougher response to any Israeli counterattack attack on its soil.

With Israel focused on its war against Hamas in Gaza, and already battling Iranian-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon every day, the U.S. has urged Israel to show restraint.

U.S. officials say President Joe Biden has told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the U.S. will not participate in any offensive action against Iran, and the president made “very clear” to Netanyahu “that we do have to think carefully and strategically” about the risks of escalation.

Israel’s war cabinet has spent the last two days debating their next move. Here are some considerations key to their decision.

Israel’s successful air defense Saturday night — conducted in tandem with the U.S., Britain, France and Jordan — bought the country a brief moment of international support and sympathy after months of mounting international isolation over the Gaza war. The six-month offensive has killed nearly 34,000 Palestinians, according to local health officials, and unleashed a humanitarian catastrophe.

A coalition of international partners helped Israel defend itself effectively. Israel’s military says 99% of the weapons were intercepted, with few reaching Israeli airspace. The attack caused only minor damage and wounded one person: a 7-year-old girl.

This coalition worked under the leadership of the U.S. Central Command, which oversees American forces in the region. It works closely with Israel and moderate Arab countries to form a unified front against Iran.

Jordan, a country whose population is predominantly pro-Palestinian, joined the effort, despite being at odds with Israel over the war in Gaza, calling its participation self-defense.

It also appears likely that help may have come from regional powerhouse Saudi Arabia, which does not have official relations with Israel. A map released by Israel shows many of the Iranian missiles flying through Saudi airspace.

Israel has been careful not to identify its Arab partners, but an Israeli air force official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the mission, said Israeli warplanes needed to fly “east of Israel” to shoot down missiles.

Yoel Guzansky, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, a Tel Aviv think tank, said Israel would be risking this goodwill if it acts alone.

“Israel can take advantage of this and buy itself a lot of credit right now, if it does not launch a massive retaliatory attack," he said. "But if it does attack, a lot of credit is lost.”

The tacit support of Arab states does not mean they would assist Israel in a counterattack on Iran. Any air or missile response other than ballistic missiles — which would arc over neighboring countries’ airspace rather than through it — would require overflights of surrounding countries, which technically would require Israel obtain permission from those Arab neighbors, said Daniel Byman, a senior fellow with the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“With Saudi Arabia and Jordan, there’s kind of a route and access questions,” in terms of whether they would grant Israel overflight clearance.

“From Iran’s point of view, that would be seen as a hostile act,” Byman said. “And even though these countries don’t like Iran, they’re not terribly eager to be seen on the side of Israel doing that.”

A major retaliatory strike on Iranian soil risks sparking a full-scale regional war, so any response must be carefully calculated.

A direct strike on Iranian soil would almost certainly result in a brutal counterattack and risk prompting Hezbollah to launch further attacks. The Iranian-backed Lebanese group has a far more powerful arsenal than Hamas, but has so far shown hesitancy about engaging in an all-out war.

Some 60,000 citizens in northern Israel already have been forced to evacuate their homes due to ongoing exchanges with Hezbollah. Heavier fighting would likely force them to spend even more time away from home.

A direct conflict would also further stretch Israel's military, remove its focus from Gaza and hamper Israel’s war-wearied economy.

Any major attack on Iranian soil could also undermine shaky U.S. support for the war.

Two U.S. officials said Israel has not yet told the U.S. how it intends to respond. But the officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to describe diplomatic discussions, said Israel has signaled that whatever it does will be designed to prevent a worsening of the already tense regional security situation. That could point to a more limited action, such as a strike on Iranian proxies across the region or a cyber attack on Iran.

Tamar Hermann, a polling expert at the Israel Democracy Institute, says most Israelis are in favor of some sort of military response as long as it is coordinated with regional allies, including the United States.

“If it is done with no consultation and no agreement with allies … support will be much smaller,” Hermann said.

Israel’s army is vastly superior to others in the region. It possesses a range of high-tech weaponry, including F35 fighter planes that can launch long-range munitions. Experts say it has the ability to directly strike Iran or its proxies in the region.

Fabian Hinz, a weapons expert and research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said the Iranian air force is “not even remotely comparable.” He said the force is composed of a collection of planes from the 1980s and 90s, with some dating back to the reign of the Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi who ruled the country until 1979.

The extent of the Islamic republic’s air defense system is less known, he said. Many of Iran’s missile sites and nuclear installations are deep underground, making them difficult to hit, Hindz added. Israel might also need the agreement of Gulf Arab countries to use their airspace — something that is not guaranteed.

“I don’t think it’s going to be a full-scale Israeli attack against many targets all over Iran," said Raz Zimmt, another senior researcher at Israel's INSS. "It will probably be limited against one or two, perhaps inside Iran.”

Associated Press reporters Matthew Lee and Ellen Knickmeyer contributed from Washington D.C.

People shop at the old main bazaar in Tehran, Iran, Tuesday, April 16, 2024. Israel says it is poised to retaliate against Iran, risking further expanding the shadow war between the two foes into a direct conflict after an Iranian attack over the weekend sent hundreds of munitions into Israeli airspace. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

A street musician performs at the old main bazaar in Tehran, Iran, Tuesday, April 16, 2024. Israel says it is poised to retaliate against Iran, risking further expanding the shadow war between the two foes into a direct conflict after an Iranian attack over the weekend sent hundreds of munitions into Israeli airspace. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

A street musician plays music at the old main bazaar in Tehran, Iran, Tuesday, April 16, 2024. Israel says it is poised to retaliate against Iran, risking further expanding the shadow war between the two foes into a direct conflict after an Iranian attack over the weekend sent hundreds of munitions into Israeli airspace. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

People walk around the old main bazaar in Tehran, Iran, Tuesday, April 16, 2024. Israel says it is poised to retaliate against Iran, risking further expanding the shadow war between the two foes into a direct conflict after an Iranian attack over the weekend sent hundreds of munitions into Israeli airspace. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

A shopkeeper sits at his shop at the old main bazaar in Tehran, Iran, Tuesday, April 16, 2024. Israel says it is poised to retaliate against Iran, risking further expanding the shadow war between the two foes into a direct conflict after an Iranian attack over the weekend sent hundreds of munitions into Israeli airspace. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

FILE - A battery of Israel's Iron Dome defense missile system, deployed to intercept rockets, sits in Ashkelon, southern Israel, Aug. 7, 2022. Israel is vowing to retaliate against Iran, risking further expanding the shadow war between the two foes into a direct conflict after an Iranian attack over the weekend sent hundreds of drones and missiles toward Israel. (AP Photo/Ariel Schalit, File)

SHERIDAN, Ind. (AP) — U.S. Rep. Victoria Spartz, the first and only Ukrainian-born member of Congress, emerged early on as a natural advocate for supporting her native country in its war with Russia. But when $61 billion in additional support for the war effort came up for a vote in the House recently, she voted against it.

Instead she has called for better oversight of U.S. funds and opposed giving “blank checks” to the Ukrainian cause. She says U.S. border security should be a bigger priority.

That puts her more in line with conservative House Republicans and more notably with voters in her deeply conservative central Indiana congressional district. She's locked in a tough reelection fight in the May 7 GOP primary, made all the more complicated by her public announcement more than a year ago that she wouldn't seek another term, a decision she later reversed.

The aid package, part of a larger bill that also included assistance for Israel, Taiwan and other global hot spots, was approved by the House on April 20, the Senate on Tuesday and signed into law by President Joe Biden on Wednesday.

Spartz said she is “kind of appalled” at the notion that her heritage should dictate support for the Ukrainian cause if she feels the money would be wasted.

“My responsibility is the protection of American people,” she said during a recent interview.

Spartz spoke at an event hosted by the Hamilton County GOP at a community center in Sheridan, Indiana, a town of a few thousand people. The event in a hall just off of the town's main street was attended by eight of the nine GOP primary candidates, who were able to make their case to voters and county Republican officials one at a time during a meet-and-greet that also included short speeches by the candidates.

Mike Murphy, a former Indiana state representative and political commentator, said in a phone interview that funding for Ukraine isn't much of a priority for Republican voters these days. Concern about the southern border is a greater catalyst for participation, which isn't lost on candidates in the conservative district. Most of Spartz's opponents for the 5th district seat have said protecting the U.S.-Mexico border should be a bigger priority than sending money to Ukraine.

“They’re all gunning to be as Trump-like as possible,” Murphy said.

Border security has been hammered in the campaign by state Rep. Chuck Goodrich, the most well-funded of Spartz's eight challengers. He has attacked Spartz on her original support to Ukraine, saying she puts “Ukraine first.”

Goodrich, who attended the Sheridan event, acknowledged that Indiana is far from Mexico but said illegal drugs such as fentanyl enter the U.S. through the southern border and pose a threat deep in the heartland.

“Every state is a border state,” he said in an interview.

Spartz beat a crowded 2020 primary field, winning nearly 40% of the vote and receiving former President Donald Trump's general election endorsement. She ran unopposed in the 2022 primary.

Spartz made things harder for herself when she announced in early 2023 that she would not run again, citing fatigue with Washington politics and her desire to spend more time with her family. She also threatened to resign if the national debt was not addressed.

For an entire year, that left the runway clear for candidates to campaign in one of most conservative districts in the state, composed of a mix of rural and suburban counties north of Indianapolis. Trump took the district in 2020, and it was redistricted to further favor Republicans that same year.

Campaign finance reports show Spartz trailing Goodrich in campaign funds, in part because Goodrich has put up $2.6 million of his own money. Goodrich, who represents the wealthy Indianapolis suburb of Hamilton County in the state legislature, outspent Spartz by $1.9 million in the first three months of 2024 and has loaned his campaign a total of $4.6 million, according to reports.

Spartz entered the final weeks before the primary with $134,000 of cash on hand compared to Goodrich's $1.3 million.

Trump has not made an endorsement in the 5th district this year. He's been ambivalent about aid to Ukraine, saying the war would not have happened if he had been president and that any support should take the form of loans rather than grants.

Even with Spartz’s short campaign runway, she retains the advantage of incumbency. She has accused Goodrich of cozying up to China and labeled him “Republican in Name Only.”

With Trump’s Republican nomination for the presidency secured, turnout is expected to be low.

Spartz, 45, immigrated to the U.S. in 2000 after meeting her husband from Indiana on a train in Europe. She started as a bank teller, later taught as an adjunct faculty member at Indiana University’s Kelley School of Business and owns farm property.

After a long-time state senator retired before the end of his term, Hamilton County GOP officials selected Spartz, who was involved with the county party, to fill his term in 2017. She served three sessions in the statehouse before her election to Congress.

In an emotional news conference in 2022, Spartz called Russia’s invasion of Ukraine a “ genocide.” She described bombings her grandmother and friends in Ukraine had witnessed.

Later that year, she began to criticize Ukraine's leaders, including President Volodymyr Zelensky.

In the Sheridan interview, Spartz said “brave people” are “dying for freedom” in Ukraine but accused the Ukrainian government of corruption.

During her speech to voters, Spartz made no mention of the war in Ukraine. Instead she framed the stakes of her reelection as a fight against party hypocrisy, saying some of her fellow Republicans act like socialists.

Drawing on her experience growing up in the Soviet Union, as she has often done throughout her political career, she warned of a socialist future in the United States.

“I’m going to fight the righteous fight," she declared.

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A previous version of this story incorrectly said former President Donald Trump endorsed Spartz in the 2020 Republican Primary. He endorsed her in the general election.

Rep. Victoria Spartz, R-Ind., speaks during a Northern Hamilton County GOP Meeting, Monday, April 22, 2024, in Sheridan, Ind. Spartz, the first and only Ukrainian-born member of Congress who emerged as a natural voice for Ukraine, recently voted against sending $61 billion of aid to the country. Her reversal aligns with other hard-right Republicans in the House. Thanks to a year off from campaigning, Spartz's district in central Indiana is vulnerable in the upcoming primary election where the U.S.-Mexico border is of top concern. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)

Rep. Victoria Spartz, R-Ind., speaks during a Northern Hamilton County GOP Meeting, Monday, April 22, 2024, in Sheridan, Ind. Spartz, the first and only Ukrainian-born member of Congress who emerged as a natural voice for Ukraine, recently voted against sending $61 billion of aid to the country. Her reversal aligns with other hard-right Republicans in the House. Thanks to a year off from campaigning, Spartz's district in central Indiana is vulnerable in the upcoming primary election where the U.S.-Mexico border is of top concern. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)