Here's why experts don't think cloud seeding played a role in Dubai's downpour

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Here's why experts don't think cloud seeding played a role in Dubai's downpour

2024-04-18 08:55 Last Updated At：09:00

With cloud seeding, it may rain, but it doesn't really pour or flood — at least nothing like what drenched the United Arab Emirates and paralyzed Dubai, meteorologists said.

Cloud seeding, although decades old, is still controversial in the weather community, mostly because it has been hard to prove that it does very much. No one reports the type of flooding that on Tuesday doused the UAE, which often deploys the technology in an attempt to squeeze every drop of moisture from a sky that usually gives less than 4 or 5 inches (10 to 13 centimeters) of rain a year.

“It's most certainly not cloud seeding,” said private meteorologist Ryan Maue, former chief scientist at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. “If that occurred with cloud seeding, they'd have water all the time. You can't create rain out of thin air per se and get 6 inches of water. That's akin to perpetual motion technology.”

Meteorologists and climate scientists said the extreme rainfall is akin to what the world expects with human-caused climate change, and one way to know for certain that it was not caused by tinkering with clouds is that it was forecast days in advance. Atmospheric science researcher Tomer Burg pointed to computer models that six days earlier forecast several inches of rain — the typical amount for an entire year in the UAE.

Three low-pressure systems formed a train of storms slowly moving along the jet stream — the river of air that moves weather systems — toward the Persian Gulf, said University of Pennsylvania climate scientist Michael Mann. Blaming cloud seeding ignores the forecasts and the cause, he said.

Many of the people pointing to cloud seeding are also climate change deniers who are trying to divert attention from what's really happening, Mann and other scientists said.

“When we talk about heavy rainfall, we need to talk about climate change. Focusing on cloud seeding is misleading,” said Imperial College of London climate scientist Friederike Otto, who heads a team that does rapid attribution of weather extremes to see if they were caused by global warming or not. “Rainfall is becoming much heavier around the world as the climate warms because a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture."

Clouds need tiny water or ice droplets called nuclei to make rain. The weather modification method uses planes and ground-based cannons to shoot particles into clouds making more nucleai, attracting moisture that falls as snow and rain. Usually silver iodide is used, but it can also be dry ice and other materials. The method, first pioneered in the 1940s, became popular in the U.S. West starting in the 1960s, mostly for snow.

It can’t create water from a clear sky — particles must be shot into a storm cloud that already holds moisture to get it to fall, or to fall more than it otherwise would naturally.

A recent study of aerial seeding found a clear precipitation pattern on a radar that mirrored the seeding and offers evidence the method works. But exactly how effective it is remains unclear, scientists say.

The physics makes sense, but the results have been so small that scientists just can't agree on whether it is fair to say it really works, said Maue and Mann.

Atmospheric forces are so huge and so chaotic that technically cloud seeding “is way too small a scale to create what happened,” Maue said. Extra rainfall from cloud seeding would have been minimal, both said.

Despite not knowing its efficacy, governments in drought-stricken regions like the U.S. West and the UAE are often willing to invest in technology like seeding in the hopes of getting even a small amount of water.

Utah estimates cloud seeding helped increase its water supply by 12% in 2018, according to an analysis by the state's Division of Water Resources. The analysis used estimates provided to them by the contractors paid to do the seeding.

Dozens of countries in Asia and the Middle East also use cloud seeding.

The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation spent $2.4 million last year on cloud seeding along the overtapped Colorado River. Utah recently increased its seeding budget by tenfold.

That part of the Middle East doesn't get many storms, but when it does, they are whoppers that dwarf what people in the United States are used to, Maue said.

Huge tropical storms like this “are not rare events for the Middle East,” said University of Reading meteorology professor Suzanne Gray. She cited a recent study analyzing nearly 100 such events over the southern Arabian Peninsula from 2000 to 2020, with most in March and April, including a March 2016 storm that dropped 9.4 inches (almost 24 centimeters) on Dubai in just a few hours.

The 2021 study said “a statistically significant increase in the (whopper storms) duration over southeast Arabian Peninsula has been found, suggesting that such extreme events may be even more impactful in a warming world.”

While cloud seeding can work around the margins, it doesn't do big things, scientists say.

“It’s maybe a little bit of a human conceit that, yeah, we can control the weather in like a Star Trek sense,” Maue, who was appointed to NOAA by then-President Donald Trump, said. "Maybe on long time scales, climate time scales, we’re affecting the atmosphere on long time scales. But when it comes to controlling individual rain storms, we are not anywhere close to that. And if we were capable of doing that, I think we would be capable of solving many more difficult problems than creating a rain shower over Dubai."

Borenstein reported from Washington, Peterson from Boulder, Colorado.

The Associated Press receives support from the Walton Family Foundation for coverage of water and environmental policy. The AP is solely responsible for all content. For all of AP’s environmental coverage, visit https://apnews.com/hub/climate-and-environment

The Latest | Netanyahu vows to launch an offensive in Rafah

2024-04-30 19:36 Last Updated At：19:40

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed Tuesday to launch an offensive in Rafah in southern Gaza despite calls for restraint. He said Israel will destroy Hamas’ battalions there “with or without a deal” currently being discussed in talks in Cairo.

Israel and Hamas are negotiating a cease-fire agreement meant to free hostages and bring some relief to the Palestinians in the besieged enclave.

“The idea that we will stop the war before achieving all of its goals is out of the questions. We will enter Rafah and we will eliminate Hamas’ battalions there — with or without a deal, to achieve the total victory,” Netanyahu said in a meeting with families of hostages held by militants in Gaza.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is expected to visit Israel on his latest trip to the region, which began Monday in Saudi Arabia. He said Israel needs to do more to allow aid to enter Gaza, but that the best way to alleviate the humanitarian crisis is for the two sides to agree to a cease-fire.

The Israel-Hamas war was sparked by the unprecedented Oct. 7 raid into southern Israel in which militants killed around 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and abducted around 250 hostages. Israel says the militants are still holding around 100 hostages and the remains of more than 30 others.

The war in Gaza has killed more than 34,000 Palestinians, according to local health officials. The war has driven around 80% of Gaza’s population of 2.3 million from their homes, caused vast destruction in several towns and cities, and pushed northern Gaza to the brink of famine.

Currently:

— Ahead of visit to Israel, Blinken presses Hamas to accept the new cease-fire proposal.

— U.S. military ships are helping build a pier for Gaza aid. It’s going to cost at least $320 million.

— The top United Nations court is set to rule on Nicaragua’s request for Germany to halt aid to Israel.

— Student protests over the war in Gaza roil U.S. campuses ahead of graduations.

— A missile attack by Yemen’s Houthi rebels damages a ship in the Red Sea.

Follow AP’s coverage of the war at https://apnews.com/hub/israel-hamas-war

Here's the latest:

GENEVA — The head of the U.N. agency for Palestinians said Tuesday that it has raised over $115 million in private donations since the war between Israel and Hamas erupted more than six months ago, praising a welcome infusion after a string of well-heeled Western governments suspended their funding.

Philippe Lazzarini, the commissioner-general of UNRWA, made the comments after a closed-door briefing with diplomats from U.N. member states in Geneva. He said that most donor countries who paused their contributions in the wake of allegations from Israel that some staffers were connected to the militant group Hamas had since restarted their aid outlays.

Three countries — the United States, Austria and Britain — have not resumed funding, he said. The United States, its biggest funder, has “clearly indicated that it will keep the freeze until March 2025,” while Austria and Britain haven’t yet decided, Lazzarini said.

He said $267 million that had previously committed was still on hold, “the bulk of it” from the United States.

On Friday, the U.N. said its investigators are looking into allegations against 14 of the 19 UNRWA staffers who Israel claims were involved in the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas militants that spurred the latest war in Gaza.

In January, the world body was informed of Israeli allegations that 12 employees of the agency known as UNRWA had taken part in the Oct. 7 attack on southern Israel, when Hamas and other Palestinian militants killed about 1,200 people and seized some 250 as hostages. Seven other cases have since emerged.

Israel’s allegations led to the suspension of contributions to UNRWA by the U.S. and more than a dozen other countries, leading to a pause of funding worth about $450 million, according to a U.N.-commissioned report released last week.

UNRWA has 32,000 staff in Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and the Palestinian territories, including 13,000 in Gaza who provide education, health care, food and other services to several million Palestinians and their families.

AMMAN, Jordan — U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Jordan on the second leg of his latest Mideast diplomatic mission to boost aid shipments to Gaza and champion a new proposal for an Israel-Hamas cease-fire that would include the release of hostages held by the militant group.

A day after saying in Saudi Arabia that Israel still needs to do more to get humanitarian assistance into Gaza, and that Israel’s latest cease-fire offer was “extraordinarily generous” to Hamas, Blinken was meeting with Jordan’s King Abdullah II and Foreign Minister Ayman al-Safadi in Amman. Their talks were expected to focus on those issues as well as planning for post-conflict reconstruction and governance of Gaza.

Blinken will then tour several aid facilities and meet the U.N. humanitarian and reconstruction coordinator for Gaza, Sigrid Kaag, before leaving for Israel. Blinken will meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his war cabinet in Tel Aviv on Wednesday as well as visit Gaza-aid related sites.

On Monday in Riyadh, Blinken also reiterated the Biden administration’s opposition to Israel mounting a major military operation against the southern city of Rafah, where more than a million Palestinians have fled to escape fighting farther north. Blinken said Israel has still not presented a credible plan to protect civilians if it goes ahead with such an offensive.

Netanyahu said Tuesday that Israel would proceed with a Rafah operation “with or without” a cease-fire for hostages deal.

JERUSALEM — An Israeli police officer has been moderately injured in a stabbing attack outside of Jerusalem’s Old City, police said.

Police say the attacker, a Turskih national, was killed by police on the scene.

Tensions have been surging in the region since the Israel-Hamas war broke out Oct. 7 when the militant group launched a cross-border raid into Israel, killing 1,200 people while another 250 were taken hostage.

Tuesday’s attack took place in east Jerusalem, which has a large Palestinian population and where tensions between them and Israeli police often flare.

Stabbing attacks, car rammings and shooting incidents against Israelis have increased, mostly in the occupied West Bank but also in Israeli cities and towns, since the start of the war in Gaza.

BEIRUT — At least eight children have been killed and 75 injured in Lebanon in the ongoing conflict along the country’s border with Israel, UNICEF said Monday.

Out of 90,000 people displaced by the conflict in south Lebanon, 30,000 are children, UNICEF said in a report. It said that 20,000 students have been impacted by the partial or total closure of 72 schools in the conflict zone.

Children in Lebanon have also suffered as a result of disruptions to services including health care and water and are struggling with mental health issues because of the violence, the report said.

More than 350 people have been killed by Israeli strikes in Lebanon over nearly seven months of near-daily cross-border fighting between the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah and Israeli forces. The conflict escalated after the Israel-Hamas war erupted on Oct. 7.

Most of those killed were fighters with Hezbollah and allied groups, but more than 50 civilians have also been killed. In addition to eight children, 21 women were killed in the first six months of fighting, UNICEF reported. On the Israeli side, strikes from Lebanon have killed at least 10 civilians and 12 soldiers.

Western diplomats have brought forward a series of proposals for a cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah but have so far failed to broker a deal. Hezbollah has said there will be no truce in Lebanon before there is a cease-fire in Gaza. Israeli officials, meanwhile, have said that a Gaza cease-fire does not automatically mean it will halt its strikes in Lebanon, even if Hezbollah does so.

CAIRO — The Gaza Health Ministry said Tuesday the bodies of 47 people killed by Israeli strikes have been brought to hospitals over the past 24 hours. Hospitals also received 61 wounded, it said in its daily report.

That brings the overall Palestinian death toll from the Israel-Hamas war to at least 34,536, the ministry said. Another 77,704 have been wounded, it said.

The Health Ministry does not distinguish between fighters and civilians in its tallies, but says that women and children make up around two thirds of those killed.

The Israeli military says it has killed roughly 13,000 militants during the war, without providing evidence to back up the claim.

CAIRO — Officials from Hamas have left Cairo after talks with Egyptian officials on a new cease-fire proposal in Gaza, Egypt’s state-owned Al-Qahera News satellite channel said Tuesday.

The channel, which has close ties with Egyptian security agencies, said a Hamas delegation will return to Cairo with a written response to the cease-fire proposal, without saying when.

The delegation, chaired by senior Hamas official Khalil al-Hayya, held talks with Egyptian officials Monday that focused on an Egyptian-crafted proposal to establish a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip.

Along with Qatar and the United States, Egypt is mediating between Israel and Hamas to secure a truce after nearly seven months of war. In recent weeks, Egypt has stepped up mediation efforts in hopes of averting an assault on Rafah, Gaza’s southernmost city on the border with Egypt where more than half of Gaza’s population is sheltering.

The terms of the draft deal were not made public. But Israeli media said Israel softened its position, now seeking the release of 33 hostages — down from 40 — in return for the release of some 900 Palestinian prisoners. Hamas is believed to hold around 100 Israelis in Gaza and the remains of at least 30 more.