Anticipating success: what to expect in q2 2024 for your business
The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released today (April 19) the results of the Quarterly Business Tendency Survey for the second quarter (Q2) of 2024.
Business situation
For all surveyed sectors taken together, the proportion of respondents expecting their business situation to be better (14%) in Q2 2024 over the preceding quarter is slightly higher than that expecting it to be worse (12%).
When compared with the results of the Q1 2024 survey round, the proportion of respondents expecting a better business situation in Q2 2024 is 14%, slightly higher than the corresponding proportion of 13% in Q1 2024, while the proportion of respondents expecting a worse business situation in Q2 2024 is broadly the same as the corresponding proportion in Q1 2024 (12%).
Analysed by sector, more respondents in the financing and insurance sector expect their business situation to be better in Q2 2024 as compared with Q1 2024. On the other hand, more respondents in the retail and construction sectors expect their business situation to be worse, as compared to those expecting it to be better.
The results of the survey should be interpreted with care. In this type of survey on expectations, the views collected in the survey are affected by the events in the community occurring around the time of enumeration, and it is difficult to establish precisely the extent to which respondents' perception of the future accords with the underlying trends. The enumeration period for this survey round was from March 2, 2024 to April 11, 2024.
Volume of business/output
Respondents in quite a number of the surveyed sectors expect their volume of business/output to decrease on balance or remain broadly unchanged in Q2 2024 as compared with Q1 2024. In particular, more respondents in the retail sector expect their volume of sales to decrease in Q2 2024 over Q1 2024. On the contrary, more respondents in the financing and insurance sector expect their volume of business to increase, as compared to those expecting it to decrease.
Employment
Respondents in most of the surveyed sectors expect their employment to increase on balance or remain broadly unchanged in Q2 2024 as compared with Q1 2024. In particular, more respondents in the real estate, financing and insurance, accommodation and food services and construction sectors expect their employment to increase in Q2 2024 over Q1 2024. In the information and communications sector, however, more respondents expect their employment to decrease, as compared to those expecting it to increase.
Selling price/service charge
Respondents in most of the surveyed sectors expect their selling prices/service charges to remain broadly unchanged in Q2 2024 as compared with Q1 2024. In the accommodation and food services sector, however, more respondents expect their charges for services rendered/prices of food provided to go up in Q2 2024 over Q1 2024. On the other hand, more respondents in the retail sector expect their selling prices to go down, as compared to those expecting them to go up.
Commentary
A Government spokesman said that large enterprises' overall business sentiment and appetite for hiring improved slightly as compared to three months ago.
Looking forward, the spokesman said that while the complicated external environment will still affect business sentiment in the near term, continued growth of the local economy should provide support. The Government will monitor the situation closely.
Further information
The survey gathers views on short-term business performance from the senior management of about 560 prominent establishments in various sectors in Hong Kong with a view to providing a quick reference, with minimum time lag, for predicting the short-term future economic performance of the local economy.
The survey covers 10 major sectors in Hong Kong, namely manufacturing; construction; import/export trade and wholesale; retail; accommodation and food services (mainly covering services rendered by hotels and restaurants); transportation, storage and courier services; information and communications; financing and insurance; real estate; and professional and business services sectors.
Views collected in the survey refer only to those of respondents on their own establishments rather than those on the respective sectors they are engaged in, and are limited to the expected direction of quarter-to-quarter change (e.g. "up", "same" or "down") but not the magnitude of change. In collecting views on the quarter-to-quarter changes, if the variable in question is subject to seasonal variations, respondents are asked to provide the expected changes after excluding the normal seasonal variations.
Survey results are generally presented as "net balance", i.e. the difference between the percentage of respondents choosing "up" and that choosing "down". The percentage distribution of respondents among various response categories (e.g. "up", "same" and "down") reflects how varied their business expectations are. The "net balance", with its appropriate sign, indicates the direction of expected change in the variable concerned. A positive sign indicates a likely upward trend while a negative sign indicates a likely downward trend. However, the magnitude of the "net balance" reflects only the prevalence of optimism or pessimism, but not the magnitude of expected change, since information relating to such magnitude is not collected in the survey.
Furthermore, owing to sample size constraint, care should be taken in interpreting survey results involving a small percentage (e.g. less than 10%) of respondents in individual sectors.
Chart 1 shows the views on expected changes in business situation for the period Q2 2023 to Q2 2024.
Table 1 shows the net balances of views on expectations in respect of different variables for Q2 2024.
The survey results are published in greater detail in the "Report on Quarterly Business Tendency Survey, Q2 2024". Users can browse and download the publication at the website of the C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/en/EIndexbySubject.html?pcode=B1110008&scode=300).
Users who have enquiries about the survey results may contact the Business Expectation Statistics Section of the C&SD (Tel: 3903 7263; email: business-prospects@censtatd.gov.hk).
Source: AI-generated images
Proactive planning for extreme weather: how employers and employees can work together to ensure safety and productivity
The Labour Department (LD) today (May 2) reminded employers to make prior work arrangements for employees during and after tropical cyclone warnings, rainstorm warnings, "extreme conditions" and other adverse weather events as early as possible, so as to ensure the safety of employees and smooth operation of establishments as well as to maintain good labour-management relations.
In the light of the experience of the first-time announcement of "extreme conditions" last September, the LD has reviewed the previously published "Code of Practice in Times of Typhoons and Rainstorms" and promulgated today the revised "Code of Practice in Times of Adverse Weather and 'Extreme Conditions'" ("CoP") to provide more suitable guidelines for employers and employees.
The revised CoP reiterates the basic principles of work arrangements for employees under adverse weather and "extreme conditions". "Employers should make prior work arrangements and contingency measures for staff which are reasonable and practicable. In drawing up and implementing the work arrangements, employers should give prime consideration to employees' safety and the feasibility of employees travelling to and from their workplaces. Employers should also give consideration as much as possible to the different situations faced by individual employees, such as their place of residence and the road and traffic conditions in the vicinity, and adopt a sympathetic and flexible approach with regard to their actual difficulties and needs," an LD spokesman said.
To avoid misunderstanding, disputes and confusion, employers should consult and engage employees when drawing up the arrangements and make appropriate updates or amendments based on the experience of each occasion and the needs of both employers and employees as well as the actual situations. The work arrangements should cover the following matters:
* arrangements in respect of reporting for duty;
* arrangements in respect of early release from work;
* arrangements in respect of resumption of work (e.g. the number of hours within which employees should resume duty after the warning concerned is cancelled or "extreme conditions" comes to an end, when safety and traffic conditions allow);
* arrangements in respect of remote work such as work from home (if applicable) (e.g. duty and work arrangements during and after tropical cyclone warnings, rainstorm warnings or "extreme conditions");
* arrangements regarding working hours, wages and allowances (e.g. calculation of wages and allowances in respect of reporting for duty and absence); and
* special arrangements in respect of staff required to report for duty in times of adverse weather and "extreme conditions".
"Employers should conduct a timely and realistic assessment of whether there is any need for requiring staff to report for duty at workplaces when a tropical cyclone warning, rainstorm warning or 'extreme conditions' is in force. In making the assessment, employers should take into account the safety of employees, the business nature, operational needs and urgency of service, with due regard to the manpower requirements, staffing establishment and individual situations of employees, and keep the number of staff at workplaces to the minimum as far as possible," the spokesman added.
When a Pre-No. 8 Special Announcement is issued during working hours, employers should release employees from the workplaces or from work in stages, or arrange for them to work remotely as soon as practicable. To ensure the safety of employees and to enable them to arrive home before suspension of public transport services, employees who have mobility problems (for example, pregnant employees or those with a disability), employees who rely on transport services which are prone to being affected by adverse weather conditions (for example, ferry services) to get home, and those who work in or are living in remote areas (for example, outlying islands) should be given priority to leave. Other employees should be released from workplaces or from work in stages according to their travelling distance or the time required for returning home.
If an Amber, Red or Black Rainstorm Warning Signal is issued during working hours, employees working indoors should continue to work as usual unless it is dangerous to do so. Supervisors of employees working outdoors or in exposed areas should suspend outdoor duties as soon as practicable. They should arrange for their employees to take shelter temporarily and resume duty only when weather conditions permit. If the Black Rainstorm Warning Signal is still in force by the end of working hours, employees should stay in a safe place until the heavy rain has passed. A suitable area in the workplace should be made available by employers as temporary shelter for employees.
If the Government makes an "extreme conditions" announcement, apart from those required by employers to report for duty at workplaces, employees are advised to stay in the place they are currently in or in safe places when "extreme conditions" is in force, instead of heading for work. Employees who have already reported for duty at workplaces could continue to work as usual in a safe manner. If the workplaces are in danger, employers should release staff from work early under feasible conditions and in a safe manner, or make available a safe place as temporary shelter for employees. If the working time ends while "extreme conditions" is still in force, employers can release employees from workplaces in a safe manner or provide a suitable area as temporary shelter for those still at workplaces.
If it is necessary for employees to report for duty at workplaces under adverse weather or "extreme conditions", employers should discuss and agree with them in advance on the duty arrangements and contingency measures. If public transport services are suspended or limited during Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal No. 8 (T8) or higher, the Black Rainstorm Warning Signal or "extreme conditions" is in force, employers should provide safe transport services for employees travelling to and from workplaces, or grant them an extra travelling allowance.
The spokesman reminded employers to observe the statutory liabilities and requirements under the Employment Ordinance, Occupational Safety and Health Ordinance, Factories and Industrial Undertakings Ordinance, Employees' Compensation Ordinance and Minimum Wage Ordinance.
"As natural calamities cannot be avoided, for employees who are not able to report for duty or resume work on time due to adverse weather or 'extreme conditions', employers should neither deduct their wages, good attendance bonuses or allowances, nor reduce employees' entitlement to annual leave, statutory holidays or rest days under the Employment Ordinance, or ask for additional hours of work from employees to compensate for the loss of working hours when they are unable to report for duty," he said.
Employers should note that they have an obligation to provide and maintain a safe working environment for their employees under the Occupational Safety and Health Ordinance. If employees are required to work in times of tropical cyclone warnings, rainstorm warnings or "extreme conditions", employers should ensure that the risks at work are reduced as far as reasonably practicable. Moreover, under the Employees' Compensation Ordinance, employers are liable to pay compensation for injuries or deaths incurred when employees are travelling by a direct route from their residence to their workplace, or from their workplace back to their residence after work, four hours before or after working hours on a day when Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal No. 8 or higher, a Red or Black Rainstorm Warning Signal or "extreme conditions" is in force.
The LD has published the CoP which can be obtained from branch offices of the Labour Relations Division or downloaded from the department's webpage (www.labour.gov.hk/eng/public/wcp/Rainstorm.pdf).
Source: AI-generated images
