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AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Pennsylvania's presidential and state primaries

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AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Pennsylvania's presidential and state primaries
News

News

AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Pennsylvania's presidential and state primaries

2024-04-19 19:18 Last Updated At:19:21

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump will go before voters Tuesday in Pennsylvania’s presidential primaries, a prelude to the November general election, when the commonwealth is expected to once again play a critical role in the race for the White House. Further down the ballot, voters will also select nominees in competitive primaries for Congress, the state legislature and three statewide offices.

Biden clinched the Democratic nomination and Trump clinched the Republican nomination on March 12, and neither faces serious opposition on the primary ballot. Nonetheless, both presumptive nominees have campaigned in Pennsylvania in recent days with their focus more on the November election and each other than on Tuesday’s vote.

Biden just completed a three-day campaign swing that began Tuesday in his hometown of Scranton and concluded Thursday in Philadelphia in an event with members of the Kennedy family. Days earlier, Trump held a rally in Lehigh County, his third visit to the state this year.

Pennsylvania, with its 19 electoral votes, was one of three critical swing states along with Michigan and Wisconsin that went narrowly for Trump in 2016 after almost 30 years of voting for Democratic presidential candidates. Biden won back all three states four years later with a margin in Pennsylvania of about 80,000 votes out of more than 6.9 million votes cast, and the states remain key electoral prizes this November.

Democrats in the Keystone State also will decide competitive contests for state attorney general, treasurer and auditor general. For attorney general, five candidates are running for the nomination for the position once held by Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro. They are Philadelphia attorney Keir Bradford-Grey, former auditor general and state Rep. Eugene DePasquale, former prosecutor and Bucks County solicitor Joe Khan, Philadelphia state Rep. Jared Solomon and Delaware County District Attorney Jack Stollsteimer.

The Republican primary for attorney general pits York County District Attorney Dave Sunday against state Rep. Craig Williams.

In the race to control the closely divided Congress, first-term Democratic U.S. Rep. Summer Lee faces a primary challenge in the 12th District from Bhavini Patel, a member of the Edgewood Borough Council in Allegheny County. The two have sparred over their positions on the Israel-Hamas war. Lee has accused Israel of “war crimes” in Gaza and was an early proponent of a cease-fire. She was also supportive of a campaign to vote “uncommitted” in Democratic presidential primaries to send a message to Biden over the war.

In the 10th Congressional District, six Democrats are competing for the nomination to face Republican U.S. Rep. Scott Perry, who played an active role in the effort to keep Trump in office after his loss to Biden in the 2020 election. A federal court recently ordered Perry to hand over hundreds of his texts and emails to FBI agents investigating the effort. His cellphone was seized in 2022 as part of the probe.

In the 1st Congressional District, Republican U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick faces a primary challenge from Mark Houck, an anti-abortion activist. In the 7th District, three Republicans are vying to take on Democratic U.S. Rep. Susan Wild in the fall.

Pennsylvania is also home to a competitive U.S. Senate contest, but Democratic U.S. Sen. Bob Casey and Republican David McCormick are both running unopposed in Tuesday's primary.

Here’s a look at what to expect on Tuesday:

The Pennsylvania presidential and state primaries will be held on Tuesday. Polls close at 8 p.m. ET.

The Associated Press will provide coverage for the Democratic and Republican presidential primaries, as well as 48 additional races down the ballot. Biden and Dean Phillips will appear on the Democratic presidential ballot, while Trump and Nikki Haley will appear on the Republican ballot. Voters in both primaries are also given the option to write in a candidate. The AP will also provide coverage for contested primaries for attorney general, auditor, treasurer, U.S. House, state Senate and state House.

Pennsylvania has a closed primary system, which means that only voters registered with a political party may participate in that party’s primary. Democrats may not vote in the Republican primary or vice versa. Independent or unaffiliated voters may not participate in either primary.

Pennsylvania’s 159 pledged Democratic delegates are allocated according to the national party’s standard rules. Thirty-five at-large delegates are allocated in proportion to the statewide vote, as are 19 PLEO delegates, or “party leaders and elected officials.” The state’s 17 congressional districts have a combined 105 delegates at stake, which are allocated in proportion to the vote results in each district. Candidates must receive at least 15% of the statewide vote to qualify for any statewide delegates, and 15% of the vote in a congressional district to qualify for delegates in that district.

Pennsylvania has 67 Republican delegates. The winner of the statewide vote will receive all 16 at-large delegates. The state’s 17 congressional districts each have an additional three delegates, for a total of 51 district-level delegates, but they are not awarded to candidates based on the primary vote. Instead, people running to be a convention delegate appear on the ballot and are elected directly by voters. They are elected as unbound delegates, meaning they are not obligated to vote for any particular candidate at the convention. The AP will not report vote totals for delegate candidates.

In the presidential race, Biden and Trump are the favorites in their primaries as neither candidate faces a credible challenge. The first indications that they are winning statewide on a level consistent with the overwhelming margins seen in most other contests held this year may be sufficient to determine the statewide winners.

For other statewide primaries, the key jurisdictions to watch are the vote-rich counties of Philadelphia, Allegheny, Montgomery, Bucks, Delaware, Lancaster and Chester.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

In Pennsylvania, races with a vote margin of 0.5 percentage points or less are subject to an automatic recount. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

As of April 15, there were more than 8.7 million registered voters in Pennsylvania, about 45% Democrats and 40% Republicans.

In the 2022 midterm primaries, turnout was about 15% of registered voters in both the Democratic and Republican primaries. About 42% of votes in the Democratic primary that year were cast before Election Day, compared with about 11% in the Republican primary.

As of Thursday, a total of 413,952 ballots had been cast before Election Day, about 73% from Democrats and about 26% from Republicans.

In the 2022 midterm primaries, the AP first reported results at 8:04 p.m. ET, or four minutes after polls closed. The election night tabulation ended at 2:45 a.m. ET with about 91% of total votes counted.

As of Tuesday, there will be 83 days until the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, 118 days until the Democratic National Convention in Chicago and 196 until the November general election.

Follow the AP's coverage of the 2024 election at https://apnews.com/hub/election-2024.

FILE - Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign event in Schnecksville, Pa., April 13, 2024. President Joe Biden and Trump will go before voters April 23, 2024, in Pennsylvania's presidential primaries, a prelude to the November general election when the commonwealth is expected to once again to play a critical role in the race for the White House.(AP Photo/Joe Lamberti)

FILE - Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign event in Schnecksville, Pa., April 13, 2024. President Joe Biden and Trump will go before voters April 23, 2024, in Pennsylvania's presidential primaries, a prelude to the November general election when the commonwealth is expected to once again to play a critical role in the race for the White House.(AP Photo/Joe Lamberti)

FILE - President Joe Biden speaks at the United Steelworkers Headquarters in Pittsburgh, April 17, 2024. Biden and former President Donald Trump will go before voters April 23, 2024, in Pennsylvania's presidential primaries, a prelude to the November general election when the commonwealth is expected to once again to play a critical role in the race for the White House.(AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

FILE - President Joe Biden speaks at the United Steelworkers Headquarters in Pittsburgh, April 17, 2024. Biden and former President Donald Trump will go before voters April 23, 2024, in Pennsylvania's presidential primaries, a prelude to the November general election when the commonwealth is expected to once again to play a critical role in the race for the White House.(AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

FILE - Voters check in at their polling place before casting their ballots on election day in Philadelphia, Nov. 7, 2023. President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump will go before voters April 23, 2024, in Pennsylvania's presidential primaries, a prelude to the November general election when the commonwealth is expected to once again to play a critical role in the race for the White House.(AP Photo/Matt Rourke)

FILE - Voters check in at their polling place before casting their ballots on election day in Philadelphia, Nov. 7, 2023. President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump will go before voters April 23, 2024, in Pennsylvania's presidential primaries, a prelude to the November general election when the commonwealth is expected to once again to play a critical role in the race for the White House.(AP Photo/Matt Rourke)

DETROIT (AP) — Kenta Maeda got his first win for Detroit, allowing four hits over six innings in a 4-1 victory over the St. Louis Cardinals on Wednesday as the Tigers took two of three games in the series.

Matt Vierling had three RBIs for the Tigers, who are 31-16 against St. Louis in interleague play. The teams also met in three World Series, with the Cardinals winning in 1934 and 2006, and Detroit taking the title in 1968.

Maeda (1-1) allowed a fourth-inning home run to Willson Contreras that landed in shrubbery above the center-field fence. He struck out five and walked none.

The 36-year-old right-hander, who signed a $24 million, two-year contract during the offseason, had a 7.64 ERA in his first four starts but has lowered it to 5.02 by allowing one run over 11 innings in his last two outings. He spent his first seven big league seasons with the Los Angeles Dodgers and Minnesota.

Alex Lange got four outs for his second save.

Miles Mikolas (2-4), facing Detroit for the first time, gave up three runs and six hits in six innings.

BREWERS 7, RAYS 1

MILWAUKEE (AP) — Willy Adames homered twice with four RBIs and Colin Rea pitched six scoreless innings to lead Milwaukee over Tampa Bay on Wednesday in the finale of a contentious three-game series.

Milwaukee reliever Abner Uribe was suspended for six games and starter Freddy Peralta for five by Major League Baseball for their roles in a brawl on Tuesday night. Rays outfielder Jose Siri was suspended for three games, and Milwaukee manager Pat Murphy for two. All four also were fined.

Murphy started his suspension on Wednesday, leaving associate manager Rickie Weeks to lead the team. Siri’s suspension was cut to two games as part of an agreement, and he served the first game Wednesday. Uribe and Peralta can continue to play until their appeals are resolved.

Adams hit a solo homer in the third off Zach Eflin (1-4) and a three-run drive in the seventh against Erasmo Ramírez for his fifth big league two-homer game.

Rea (3-0) gave up four hits over six innings with two walks and six strikeouts in a 99-pitch outing. Bryan Hudson, Uribe and Thyago Vieira finished a five-hitter, and the Brewers took two of three from the Rays.

TWINS 10, WHITE SOX 5

CHICAGO (AP) — Max Kepler and José Miranda hit run-scoring singles to put Minnesota ahead in the seventh, and the Twins rallied late for their 10th straight win over the Chicago White Sox.

Miranda added his third hit for another RBI in a four-run ninth that put it away for the Twins, whose winning streak is their longest since June 2008 and the longest in baseball this season. Willi Castro added an RBI single to cap a three-hit day that included a double and triple.

Alex Kirilloff hit a solo shot off Chicago starter Chris Flexen. Ryan Jeffers knocked in two runs with a double for Minnesota, which has beaten Chicago in eight straight dating to last season.

Tommy Pham hit his first homer with the White Sox and added an RBI double. He’s batting .375 with Chicago in six games since joining them last Friday.

ROYALS 6, BLUE JAYS 1

TORONTO (AP) — Seth Lugo pitched seven strong innings to win for the fifth time in seven starts, Michael Massey hit a three-run home run and Kansas City beat Toronto.

Bobby Witt Jr. had two hits, scored once and also drove in a run as the Royals won for the fifth time in seven meetings with Toronto.

Witt also turned in a highlight defensive play, making a sliding stop and throwing from one knee to retire Bo Bichette for the final out of the sixth inning.

Salvador Perez had an RBI single and extended his career-best streak of reaching base safely to 21 games. His 27 RBIs lead the American League.

Massey homered off right-hander Nate Pearson in the eighth, his second in two games. He finished with four RBIs.

Lugo (5-1) allowed just one hit, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s single in the first, until Toronto catcher Danny Jansen homered with two outs in the seventh. The solo blast was Jansen’s third of the season.

ATHLETICS 4, PIRATES 0

OAKLAND, Calif. (AP) — Ross Stripling threw six strong scoreless innings to earn his first win in nearly two years, and Oakland hit two home runs to beat Pittsburgh to complete their first series sweep of the season.

Abraham Toro and Phil Nevin both went deep to help the A’s to their fourth straight victory in front of another sparse crowd of 4,679 at the Coliseum. Kyle McCann added two hits and an RBI.

Stripling (1-5), acquired from San Francisco in the offseason, had lost 10 consecutive decisions for the A’s and Giants before putting the clamps on the Pirates offense. The veteran right-hander allowed three hits, had two strikeouts and retired the final seven batters he faced to gain his first win since Oct. 1, 2022.

Five Oakland relievers combined for three innings to complete the A’s fourth shutout of the season.

BRAVES 5, MARINERS 2

SEATTLE (AP) — Chris Sale allowed one run over five innings and struck out nine, Austin Riley had the big blow at the plate with a two-run triple, and Atlanta salvaged the final game of a three-game series with a win over Seattle.

The NL East-leading Braves rebounded after suffering back-to-back defeats for the first time this season with another strong start from Sale and Atlanta’s offense taking advantage of an error to score four unearned runs off Seattle starter Emerson Hancock.

Sale (4-1) continued to flash signs of his former self — one of the most dominant lefties in the game before injuries sidetracked his career. He used his assortment of arm angles and pitch shapes to reach a season high in strikeouts while scattering six hits. The only run Sale allowed came with two outs in the fifth inning on Jorge Polanco’s blooper.

Sale won his third straight decision and has a 2.36 ERA over his last three starts.

Seattle brought the tying run to the plate in the ninth, when Raisel Iglesias walked Luke Raley and gave up a single to Julio Rodríguez. But Iglesias got popups from Haniger and Polanco and a groundout from Cal Raleigh to finish off his eighth save.

PHILLIES 2, ANGELS 1

ANAHEIM, Calif. (AP) — Kyle Schwarber had a two-run single in the second inning, Alec Bohm extended his hitting streak to 15 games and Philadelphia defeated the Los Angeles Angels.

Philadelphia won the getaway game despite striking out 18 times, the 11th time since 1906 the team has whiffed at least that many times in a game.

Nick Castellanos struck out four times for the fifth time in his career.

Ehire Adrianza hit his first home run in three years for the Angels, who went 3-6 on their homestand and have not won any of their five home series this season.

Los Angeles went 0 for 10 with runners in scoring position. It had runners on first and third with one out in the ninth, but Gregory Soto struck out Jo Adell and Taylor Ward hit a deep fly ball to the warning track in left field where Schwarber caught it for the final out to secure Soto’s second save.

PADRES 6, REDS 2

SAN DIEGO (AP) — Jake Cronenworth hit a tiebreaking grand slam in the seventh inning and Jurickson Profar had four hits for San Diego who beat Cincinnati to take two of three in the series.

Cronenworth hit his third career grand slam and the second for the Padres this season. It came after Tyler Wade opened the inning with a bunt single over the head of reliever Fernando Cruz (1-2), followed by Profar’s single and Fernando Tatis Jr.’s walk. Cronenworth connected to right on the first pitch he saw from Cruz.

Profar, re-signed in the offseason to a $1 million, one-year contract, extended his hitting streak to eight games. He had a two-run single in the fourth.

Until Cronenworth’s slam, the biggest moment of the game was when Reds center fielder Stuart Fairchild made a sensational leaping catch to rob Manny Machado of a three-run homer.

YANKEES 2, ORIOLES 0

BALTIMORE (AP) — Luis Gil outdueled Corbin Burnes, Oswaldo Cabrera hit a two-run homer in the fifth inning and New York topped Baltimore Orioles.

Gil (2-1) allowed two hits and a walk over a career-high 6 1/3 innings in another low-scoring game between the top two teams in the AL East. Baltimore began this four-game series with victories of 2-0 and 4-2, but Gil’s performance helped the Yankees ensure they weren’t swept.

The game was significant enough that New York used closer Clay Holmes for the final five outs in his longest outing of the season. He struck out Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman with two on to end the eighth, then pitched around a leadoff single in the ninth for his 10th save in 11 chances.

The teams are back in a virtual tie for first place, with the Orioles (19-11) percentage points ahead of New York (20-12).

MARLINS 4, ROCKIES 1

MIAMI (AP) — Roddery Muñoz pitched six strong innings to get his first major league win and Miami beat Colorado.

Making his second major league start, the 24-year-old Muñoz (1-0) gave up one run and three hits while striking out seven and walking two. After allowing two base runners in the first, Muñoz retired 11 straight before Elehuris Montero’s one-out single in the fifth.

Emmanuel Rivera singled twice and walked, while Luis Arraez and Bryan De La Cruz each drove in a run for the Marlins, who won their first series of the season. Dane Myers drove in two runs with a pinch-hit single in the eighth and has five RBIs over the last two games.

The Rockies are the first team since 1900 to have trailed at one point in each of their first 30 games.

Arraez hit a two-out RBI single against Rockies starter Dakota Hudson and scored on De La Cruz’s double to put Miami ahead 2-0 in the fifth.

Elias Díaz’s run-scoring grounder in the sixth got the Rockies to 2-1 after Muñoz walked Brenton Doyle and allowed Ryan McMahon’s double.

RED SOX 6, GIANTS 2

BOSTON (AP) — Kutter Crawford pitched a career-high seven innings, Connor Wong had three hits and the Boston beat San Francisco.

Crawford (2-1) allowed two runs on four hits — including a home run — and two walks with six strikeouts as the Red Sox won their fourth straight. The right-hander’s previous career high was 6 1/3 innings on April 17, 2023, against the Los Angeles Angels.

Wong was 3 for 4 with a run scored and an RBI.

Jarren Duran also reached base three times for Boston, with two walks and his fourth triple of the season.

Chris Martin and Greg Weissert each pitched a scoreless inning in relief for Boston.

Dalton Jefferies (0-2) pitched 2 2/3 innings of relief, giving up four runs on five hits and two walks with three strikeouts for San Francisco. He lowered his ERA from 22.50 to 17.36.

Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Kenta Maeda throws during the fifth inning of a baseball game against the St. Louis Cardinals, Wednesday, May 1, 2024, in Detroit. (AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)

Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Kenta Maeda throws during the fifth inning of a baseball game against the St. Louis Cardinals, Wednesday, May 1, 2024, in Detroit. (AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)

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