NEW YORK (AP) — Roughly 3 in 4 American adults believe the upcoming presidential election is vital to the future of U.S. democracy, although which candidate they think poses the greater threat depends on their political leanings, according to a poll.
The survey from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research finds that most Democrats, Republicans and independents see the election as “very important” or “extremely important” to democracy, while Democrats have a higher level of intensity about the issue. More than half of Democrats say the November election is “extremely important” to the future of U.S. democracy, compared to about 4 in 10 independents and Republicans.
Democrat Pamela Hanson, 67, of Amery, Wisconsin, said she has grave concerns for the future of democracy in the country if Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump gets elected.
“His statements tend towards him being a king or a dictator, a person in charge by himself,” Hanson said. “I mean, the man is unhinged in my opinion.”
But Republican Ernie Wagner from Liberty, New York, said it's President Joe Biden's administration — of which Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, is a part — that has abused the power of the executive branch.
“Biden has tried to erase the student loans, and he’s been told by the courts that it’s unconstitutional to do that,” said Wagner, 85. “He’s weaponized the FBI to get at his political opponents.”
The poll findings suggest that many Democrats continue to view Trump as a threat to democracy after he tried to overturn the results of the 2020 election, embraced the rioters who attacked the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, and threatened to seek retribution against his opponents if he wins reelection.
But they also indicate that many of Trump’s supporters agree with him that Biden is the real threat to democracy. Trump and his allies have accused Biden of weaponizing the Justice Department as it has pursued charges against the former president over his effort to halt certification of the 2020 election and keeping classified documents, though there is no evidence Biden has had any involvement or influence in the cases.
Trump has framed himself as a defender of American values and portrayed Biden as a “destroyer" of democracy. He said multiple times after he survived an assassination attempt last month that he “took a bullet for democracy.”
The poll, conducted in the days after Biden dropped out of the race and Harris announced her campaign, is an early glimpse of Americans' views of a reshaped contest.
Majorities of both Democrats and Republicans say democracy could be at risk in this election depending on who wins the presidency, responses generally in line with the findings when the question was last asked in an AP-NORC poll in December 2023.
Hanson, the Wisconsin Democrat, said she worries Trump in a second term would use the conservative-dominated U.S. Supreme Court to overrule important freedoms. She also is concerned that he would fill his Cabinet with loyalists who don’t care about the well-being of everyone in the country and defund agencies that regulate key functions of society.
But Wagner, the New York Republican, brushed off those concerns and pointed to Trump’s time in office.
“When he was in the White House, we had peace, we had prosperity, we had energy independence,” he said. “What’s undemocratic about that?”
He said he didn't think Trump's intentions leading up to and on Jan. 6 were criminal.
“I just think he was misguided," Wagner said.
Some independents also are carefully considering the stakes of the upcoming election on the country’s democratic future.
“I believe that this is the most important election of my lifetime,” said 53-year-old Patricia Seliga-Williams of LaVale, Maryland, an independent who is leaning toward voting for Harris.
Seliga-Williams said she’s barely scraping by on $15 an hour as a hotel breakfast attendant and remembers Trump handling the economy and immigration well. But she didn’t like it when he recently quipped that he plans to be a “dictator” on day one in office.
“We all know Donald Trump could run the country,” she said. “But he’s just too aggressive anymore, and I don’t think I can trust that as a voter.”
Not everyone agrees that this year's presidential election will be an inflection point for the country's democracy, offering starkly different reasons, according to the AP-NORC poll. About 2 in 10 Americans say democracy in the U.S. is strong enough to withstand the outcome of the election no matter who wins, while another 2 in 10 believe democracy is already so seriously broken that the outcome doesn’t matter.
The poll also shows the stakes of democracy in the election are felt more by older adults rather than younger ones. About half of adults 45 and older say the outcome of the election is extremely important for the future of democracy, compared to about 4 in 10 adults under 45.
“Making the claim that the other candidate is trying to destroy democracy, it doesn’t really land for me,” said Daniel Oliver, 26, an independent from suburban Detroit. “I think that we have things in place that should safeguard against when you kind of play at destroying democracy. We have other branches of government. We have people that believe in voting. So, it would be hard for a candidate to take over and become some kind of dictator.”
He said he’ll be looking for candidates to talk about issues he’s more interested in, such as reducing inflation and investing in clean energy sources.
Biden and Trump spent months sparring over whose second term would be worse for democracy. The president nodded to the consequences when he ended his campaign last month, saying in his Oval Office address that "the defense of democracy is more important than any title.”
Harris has focused more on the concept of “freedom” in the early days of her campaign. She has said Trump’s reelection could result in Americans losing the freedom to vote, the freedom to be safe from gun violence and the freedom for women to make decisions about their own bodies. Her debut campaign ad last month was set to Beyoncé’s 2016 track “Freedom,” and it has become a campaign anthem for her at rallies ever since.
Harris didn't mention democracy in her first two presidential campaign rallies, but she returned to the topic in remarks to Sigma Gamma Rho sorority members in Houston last week, saying “our fundamental freedoms are on the ballot, and so is our democracy.”
The poll of 1,143 adults was conducted July 25-29, 2024, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
The Associated Press receives support from several private foundations to enhance its explanatory coverage of elections and democracy. See more about AP’s democracy initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.
FILE - Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump and Republican vice presidential nominee Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, arrive a campaign rally, July 20, 2024, in Grand Rapids, Mich. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
FILE - Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris and her running mate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz arrive at a campaign rally in Philadelphia, Aug. 6, 2024. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)
COLOMBO, Sri Lanka (AP) — Two years ago, food cart worker Fathima Shiyama had to wait in line, sometimes for days, to get cooking gas, fuel and other essentials. It was a test of patience for her and millions of other Sri Lankans as their country languished in economic and political chaos.
Since then, under President Ranil Wickremesinghe, the South Asian island nation's economy has begun a fragile recovery. As the country gears up for a crucial presidential vote, key economic indicators have improved and there are no shortages of food and fuel. Inflation is almost under control after peaking at 70%.
Sri Lankans who usually vote along religious and ethnic lines will be keeping the state of the economy in mind when they vote Saturday on a new president. Many are still struggling, borrowing money or leaving the country to cope with rising living costs and limited opportunities.
Shiyama says she isn’t still earning enough to cover her monthly expenses and pay for her ailing daughter’s medical tests. In desperation, she has turned to borrowing from loan sharks at an exorbitant 20% interest rate.
“We are trying our best to survive despite many difficulties,” said the 48-year-old mother of five, as she was selling “string hopper” noodles and coconut “pittu,” popular traditional dinner items, from a cart on the outskirts of Colombo.
As Sri Lanka sank into economic collapse in 2022, a popular uprising led its then president Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee the country.
This weekend's election pits his successor, Wickremesinghe, against opposition leader Sajith Premadasa and Anura Dissanayake, leader of a Marxist-led coalition that has been gaining popularity. Poll results are due Sunday.
All the candidates have promised to lead Sri Lanka into a prosperous future by developing new industries, improving agriculture, broadening the tax base to increase revenue and creating tens of thousands of new jobs.
Under Wickremesinghe, Sri Lanka has been negotiating with the international creditors to restructure the country's staggering debt and get the economy back on track. The International Monetary Fund approved a four-year bailout program last year, but many Sri Lankans are unhappy over the government’s efforts to increase revenue by raising electricity rates and imposing heavy taxes on professionals and businesses, to meet IMF conditions for its assistance.
Overall conditions have improved after the long dry spell during and after the pandemic. Vital tourism earnings have risen and the Sri Lankan rupee has recovered. But rising prices due to the government's austerity measures are squeezing many households.
“We are in a very critical time” said Murtaza Jafferjee, an economic analyst and chairman of Advocata Institute, a Colombo-based independent policy think tank.
"The economy is looking up,” he said, but has not fully recovered. The government should aim for at least 4% growth this year, instead of its target of 3%. Politicians need to focus on policies that don't just benefit the country's elite, Jafferjee said.
“It is high time that we run this country for the benefit of the 22 million people,” he said.
Sri Lanka’s economic crisis began well before the upheavals of 2022.
Staggering economic mismanagement by successive governments was compounded by poor policy choices and then the pandemic. Rajapaksa pushed through big tax cuts in 2019. Then, he banned imports of chemical fertilizer to preserve Sri Lanka’s scarce foreign reserves, hurting crop yields in a a country largely dependent on agriculture.
With the war in Ukraine, food and fuel prices surged and fuel, cooking gas, medicine and food ran short. Sri Lankans lined up for government rice handouts and charity meals.
Today, inflation has dropped below 5% and there's no need to line up to buy essentials. But key parts of the economy remain in crisis.
Jagath Dissanayake said conditions remain dire for his construction firm in Gampaha, a town located about 30 kilometers (19 miles) north of Colombo after prices of building materials tripled. Most of Dissanayake projects are suspended and he had to lay off two-thirds of his employees.
“People have no money to do new construction as they give priority to buying essentials. We hardly get any new work," Dissanayake said.
His income is down almost 75%, he said, so there is no more dining out and Dissanayake rides a motorbike instead of driving a car, to save money on fuel.
“Of course, there are no queues for petrol anymore, but we don't have enough money to buy it.” he said.
Sri Lanka’s construction industry has shed about 400,000 jobs in the last four years, according to some estimates. Once a booming industry that contributed nearly 12% to the country’s growth figures, its share has dropped to 7% this year.
Many Sri Lankans have sought jobs abroad.
Viraj Maduranga, formerly a teacher in a government school, went to Dubai in 2021 to find work when he became unable to repay loans he had taken to build his house and buy a vehicle.
“Either I had to sell off the house and the car, or find an alternative income. So, I decided to leave. It was not an easy decision for me and my wife, but we have to make sacrifices to build our lives,” said Maduranga, who now works as a teacher in Dubai and won’t be able to vote in the election.
Not everyone is impressed with the promises made by the candidates in this election.
“We have seen it in the past, politicians saying various things, but when they come into power they have simply ignored what they have said during campaigns,” said W.A. Wijewardena, an economic analyst and former deputy governor of Sri Lanka's central bank.
Jafferjee, the economic analyst, said the election is “extremely crucial” for Sri Lanka’s economic recovery. The next president should use his executive powers to “enact pro-consumer policies" and be more open to trade.
“This (crisis) is not insurmountable, but you need to make unpopular choices. What you need basically is a president who looks to grow the pie," said Jafferjee.
In the meantime, Sri Lankans like Maduranga are impatiently waiting for change.
He longs to rejoin his wife and 8-year-old son in Sri Lanka, but still needs to repay his loans.
“This is not the best time to go back," Maduranga said. “I want to live in Sri Lanka as a free man without being indebted to anyone.”
Saaliq reported from New Delhi.
Indian tourists pose for a photograph on a beach in Colombo, Sri Lanka, Tuesday, Sept. 17, 2024. (AP Photo/Rajesh Kumar Singh)
FILE - Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe waves to supporters as he arrives to address a public election rally in Minuwangoda, Sri Lanka, Tuesday, Sept. 17, 2024. (AP Photo/Rajesh Kumar Singh, File)
Members of a construction crew take a break from work at the Colombo port, Sri Lanka, Monday, Sept. 16, 2024. (AP Photo/Rajesh Kumar Singh)
A woman buys fruits from a stall at a local wholesale market, in Colombo, Sri Lanka, Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024. (AP Photo/Rajesh Kumar Singh)
Workers pull a hand cart loaded with sacks of vegetables through a wholesale market in Colombo, Sri Lanka, Friday, Sept. 13, 2024. (AP Photo/Eranga Jayawardena)
A man sells plastic bags on a street in Colombo, Sri Lanka, Friday, Sept. 13, 2024. (AP Photo/Eranga Jayawardena)
Election posters showing portraits of National People's Power's presidential candidate Anura Dissanayake, are pasted on the kitchen walls of an eatery where a cook prepares food for customers in Colombo, Sri Lanka, Monday, Sept. 16, 2024. (AP Photo/Eranga Jayawardena)
Jagath Dissanayake, owner of a private construction firm, supervises work at a building site in Colombo, Sri Lanka, Friday, Sept. 13, 2024. (AP Photo/Eranga Jayawardena)
A man sits next to election posters of opposition leader Sajith Premadasa as he gets a shave from a roadside barber in Colombo, Sri Lanka, Tuesday, Sept. 17, 2024. (AP Photo/Rajesh Kumar Singh)
A couple walks past an election poster showing a portrait of Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe in Colombo, Sri Lanka, Monday, Sept. 16, 2024. (AP Photo/Eranga Jayawardena)
Fathima Shiyama, 48, waits for customers next to her food cart in Colombo, Sri Lanka, Tuesday, Sept. 3, 2024. (AP Photo/Eranga Jayawardena)
Fathima Shiyama, 48, prepares local delicacies at home, to be sold later from her food cart, in Colombo, Sri Lanka, Tuesday, Sept. 3, 2024. (AP Photo/Eranga Jayawardena)
Fathima Shiyama, 48, who sells food on a mobile cart to support her five children, speaks to the Associated Press at her residence in Colombo, Sri Lanka, Tuesday, Sept. 3, 2024. (AP Photo/Eranga Jayawardena)
A bird flies past gantry cranes working at the Colombo port, Sri Lanka, Monday, Sept. 16, 2024. (AP Photo/Rajesh Kumar Singh)
