AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Vermont's state primaries

WASHINGTON (AP) — Two Democrats will compete in Vermont’s state primary on Tuesday for the right to challenge four-term Republican Gov. Phil Scott in November. The race is the highest profile of a handful of contested primaries on the ballot.

Voters will also decide primaries for lieutenant governor and additional contested races for the heavily Democratic state legislature.

Esther Charlestin and Peter Duval are vying for the Democratic nomination for governor. Charlestin is an educator and former member of the Middlebury Selectboard. She is endorsed by former Democratic Gov. Howard Dean, Lt. Gov. David Zuckerman and Burlington Mayor Emma Mulvaney-Stanak.

Duval is a computer scientist and former Underhill Selectboard member who ran for governor as an independent in 2022. His website states that “I am going to lose this election,” a message held over from his previous run, but says a vote for him will help elevate environmental issues in state politics. He also encourages Republicans and progressives to write in his name in their party primaries.

Scott is unopposed for his party’s nomination. Despite being a Republican governor in a heavily Democratic state, he remains a popular figure. He received 69% of the vote in the 2022 general election. Scott has been a critic of Republican Donald Trump and endorsed former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley for president. He says he was one of the 66% of Vermont voters who cast their ballots for Democrat Joe Biden in 2020.

Both Democrats and Republicans will hold contested primaries for lieutenant governor. Zuckerman is seeking reelection to a fourth term. He had served four years in the post when he lost his bid for governor against Scott but returned to office two years later. He has drawn a primary challenge from Democrat Thomas Renner, the deputy mayor and city councilmember in Winooski, who previously served as an aide to Democratic U.S. Sen. Patrick Leahy.

John Rodgers and Gregory Thayer are running for the Republican nomination for lieutenant governor. Thayer is an accountant from Rutland, where he previously served as an alderman and chair of the local Republican Party. He also ran for lieutenant governor in 2022, losing the Republican primary with 44% of the vote. Rodgers is from the state’s conservative Northeast Kingdom and served as a Democrat in the state House and the state Senate for a combined 16 years. In 2018, he ran unsuccessfully for the Democratic nomination for governor as a write-in candidate. He has Scott's endorsement.

Although now running as a Republican, Rodgers said in a July debate that he will not vote for Donald Trump in November. Thayer, on the other hand, was a delegate at the Milwaukee convention in July and attended the riot at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, demonstrating in favor of overturning Trump’s defeat in the presidential election. In the July debate, he said he did not enter the building and that he did not regret his participation. When asked by the moderator whether he would return to the Capitol if Trump lost again in November, he said, “I’m going to wait to see what happens with the election.”

Topping the Vermont ballots are the races for U.S. Senate and U.S. House, but independent U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders and Democratic U.S. Rep. Becca Balint are both unopposed for the Democratic nominations. Their Republican challengers are also running unopposed. Also running unopposed are candidates for treasurer, secretary of state, attorney general and auditor.

In Vermont, the governor, lieutenant governor and other state constitutional officers serve two-year terms.

All state legislative seats are up for election, although only 10 state Senate and 15 state House primaries feature more candidates running than the number of slots available. Democrats enjoy about three-to-one majorities in both chambers.

Here’s a look at what to expect on Tuesday:

The Vermont state primaries will be held Tuesday. Polls close at 7 p.m. ET.

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in contested primaries for governor, lieutenant governor, state Senate and state House.

Any registered voter may participate in any party’s primary. Vermont does not register voters by party.

Burlington and South Burlington have the largest populations in the state, followed by Colchester, Rutland and Bennington. But Vermont has more than 200 towns and municipalities across the state, and a candidate with support from the state’s more rural areas could overcome a candidate who wins in the most populous areas.

In the race for lieutenant governor, Thayer carried 81 of 247 municipalities in the 2022 primary, performing best in the five counties making up the southern half of the state. As a Trump critic running in a Republican primary, Rodgers may look to Haley’s victory in the March presidential primary as a possible path to the nomination. Haley performed well in the Burlington and Montpelier areas and throughout central Vermont and pockets in the south.

For state legislative primaries, the number of winners in each contest varies by district. With multiple winners in many seats and relatively low turnout for down-ballot primaries, especially on the Republican side, determining the winners could come down to a relatively small number of votes.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

A candidate may request a recount if the vote margin reaches a certain threshold. In federal, statewide and state Senate elections, a recount may be requested if the vote margin between the winning and losing candidate is 2% or less of the total votes cast, divided by the number of persons to be elected for that position. For state House and local races, the required margin is 5% or less of the total votes cast, divided by the number of persons to be elected.

The AP may declare a winner in a race that is eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

As of July, there were 498,853 registered voters in Vermont.

In the 2022 midterm primaries, combined turnout was about 27% of registered voters. About 34% of votes in that election were cast before primary day.

As of Wednesday, a total of 14,871 ballots had been cast before primary day.

In the 2022 midterm primaries, the AP first reported results at 7:21 p.m. ET, or 21 minutes after polls closed. The election night tabulation ended at 2:16 a.m. ET with about 96% of total ballots counted.

As of Tuesday, there will be 84 days until the November general election.

Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2024 election at https://apnews.com/hub/election-2024.

FILE - Amber Cutler casts her ballot as election official Monte Mason looks on during primary election voting March 5, 2024, at the town hall in Morrisville, Vt. (AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty, File)

BARCELONA, Spain (AP) — Unauthorized migration to European Union countries dropped significantly overall in the first eight months of this year, even as political rhetoric and violence against migrants increased and far-right parties espousing anti-immigration policies made gains at the polls.

There was, however, a spike in migrant arrivals to the Canary Islands, a Spanish archipelago close to the African coast that is increasingly used as an alternate stepping stone to continental Europe.

Irregular migration dominated the European parliamentary elections in June and influenced recent state elections in eastern Germany, where a far-right party won for the first time since World War II. The German government this week announced it was expanding border controls around its territory following recent extremist attacks.

Despite the heated debates, irregular crossings over the southern borders of the EU — the region that sees the most unauthorized migration — were down by 35% from January to August, according to the latest preliminary figures compiled by the United Nation's International Organization for Migration.

Nearly 115,000 migrants — less than 0.03% of the EU’s population — have arrived without permission into the EU via Mediterranean and Atlantic routes so far this year, compared to 176,252 during the same period last year, the U.N. says. In contrast, more than a million people, most of them fleeing conflict in Syria, entered the EU in 2015.

Data shared by the EU's border and coast guard agency Frontex shows a similar trend: Unauthorized crossings over the region's southern borders fell 39% overall this year compared to last year.

“The emergency is not numerical this year, nor was it last year," Flavio di Giacomo, a spokesperson with the IOM office for the Mediterranean, told The Associated Press.

Camille Le Coz, an associate director of the nonprofit Migration Policy Institute in Europe, said irregular migration is “getting way too much attention compared to the scope of the issue and compared to other issues Europe should be tackling, such as climate change."

The most commonly used route for migrants is from North Africa, across the dangerous Central Mediterranean to Italy. Yet roughly 64% fewer migrants disembarked in Italy this year than during the same period in 2023, according to IOM and Frontex numbers.

Experts say that’s a result of the EU-supported crackdown in Tunisia and Libya, which comes at a price for migrants, many of whom are systematically rounded up and dumped in the desert.

How long the downward trend will hold remains to be seen, however. Smugglers are always quick to adapt and find new routes around border controls. In the Eastern Mediterranean, the second-most-used route, smuggling networks are now using speedboats in increasingly aggressive ways to avoid controls and targeting islands farther away from the Turkish coast in the central Aegean, according to Greek authorities.

The number of migrants arriving in Greece by sea and overland during the first eight months of the year rose by 57%, U.N. data shows.

Meanwhile, irregular migration from West Africa to the Canary Islands via the Atlantic, the third-most-used route, has more than doubled: More than 25,500 migrants — mostly from Mali, Senegal and other West African countries — had arrived in the islands as of Aug. 31, the U.N. says.

Countless other migrants have gone missing along the route, where rough winds and strong Atlantic currents work against them. Several migrant boats, carrying only the remains of Malian, Mauritanian and Senegalese citizens, have been found this year drifting as far away as the Caribbean and off Brazil. Precise numbers are hard to verify, but the Spanish migrant rights group Walking Borders has reported more than 4,000 dead or missing.

The trend has Spanish authorities on alert for the fall, when conditions in the Atlantic are most favorable for the journey. The treacherousness of the route seems to have done little to dissuade would-be migrants, whose ranks have swelled to include people from Syria and Pakistan, according to rescuers.

“There are situations that need to be addressed, like the situation in the Canary Islands,” Le Coz acknowledged.

The adult migrants who successfully make it to the Canaries usually keep moving, headed for the promise of jobs and safety in mainland Spain or other European countries farther north. But that is not the case for thousands of unaccompanied minors. Under Spanish law, these young migrants must be taken under the wing of the local government, leading to overcrowded shelters and a political crisis. Earlier this year, island leaders fought unsuccessfully to have other regions of Spain share the responsibility.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez recently traveled to three West African countries in an attempt to curb migration. In Senegal, he and President Bassirou Diomaye Faye signed agreements to promote temporary work opportunities in Spain for Senegalese nationals and vocational training in Senegal. They also agreed to step up police cooperation.

Current anti-immigrant sentiments notwithstanding, Europe’s aging population, declining birth rates and labor shortages have only increased the need for immigrant workers to sustain pensions and boost economic growth.

And as long as migrants lack opportunities in their own countries, their exodus will continue. Add to this the growing instability and conflict in parts of Africa, the Middle East and Asia that have displaced millions.

“There is no magic deterrence,” Le Coz said. “Migrants end up taking the toll of all of this: They are risking their lives, doing jobs in Europe where they face uncertain legal status for years and are vulnerable to all sorts of exploitation."

While long-term solutions to tackle unauthorized migration are being implemented, such as temporary work programs for migrants, they are still falling short.

“That’s one step in the right direction, but this needs to happen at a much larger scale, and they need the private sector to be more involved,” Le Coz added.

Follow AP's coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/migration

CORRECTS TO DELETE THE EXTRANEOUS WORD OF "UNAUTHORIZED" FROM THE SUBJECTS - FILE - Migrants crowd a wooden boat as they sail to the port in La Restinga on the Canary island of El Hierro, Spain, on Aug. 18, 2024. (AP Photo/Maria Ximena, File)

FILE - A child is carried ashore from a crowded wooden boat as unauthorized migrants arrive at the port in La Restinga on the Canary island of El Hierro, Spain, on Aug. 18, 2024. (AP Photo/Maria Ximena, File)

FILE - Unauthorized migrants crowd a wooden boat as they sail to the port in La Restinga on the Canary island of El Hierro, Spain, on Aug. 18, 2024. (AP Photo/Maria Ximena, File)

FILE - Unauthorized migrants react as they arrive at the port in La Restinga on the Canary island of El Hierro, Spain, on, Aug. 19, 2024. (AP Photo/Maria Ximena, File)

FILE - Unauthorized migrants crowd a wooden boat as they sail to the port in La Restinga on the Canary island of El Hierro, Spain, on Aug. 18, 2024. (AP Photo/Maria Ximena, File)