AP Top 25 Reality Check: How each ranked teams' season could go wrong

We interrupt this optimistic time of year for some pessimism.

The preseason AP Top 25 is out and college football fans all over the country can dream about how this year it all comes together for their team.

Teams that begin the season ranked can be especially hopeful — but maybe curb your enthusiasm.

After 2021 and '22 produced record turnover in the rankings from start to finish — a combined 29 teams ended those seasons unranked after starting in the Top 25 — last year was one of the chalkiest of the 2000s: 17 teams that started the season ranked finished it that way, the most since 2019.

Still, there was plenty of disappointment to go around, Looking at you, Southern California. Reality Check kicks off the season pondering how things can go wrong for each team in the preseason Top 25.

Opener: vs. Clemson in Atlanta, Aug. 31.

Reality check: Coach Kirby Smart's roster is too stacked to realistically consider the Bulldogs becoming just the second team to be No. 1 in the preseason Top 25 and finish unranked (USC in 2012). However, three road games against top-six teams raises the degree of difficulty substantially from its SEC East schedule in recent years.

Ranking: Just right.

Opener: vs. Akron, Aug. 31.

Reality check: The Buckeyes are on a mission after three straight losses to Michigan, but they have a lot riding on a quarterback (Will Howard) who was never better than second-team Big 12 in four seasons at Kansas State.

Ranking: The Buckeyes are the only other viable choice for No. 1, but this is fine.

Opener: vs. Idaho, Aug. 31.

Reality check: The Ducks plugged defensive holes, especially in the secondary, through the portal. It looks pretty good on paper but how the newbies gel is critical. A leaky secondary can really undermine a potential playoff team. See: LSU last year.

Ranking: The buzz around the Ducks seems aggressive.

Opener: vs. Colorado State, Aug. 31.

Reality check: Texas is back doesn't seem like a sarcastic joke after the Longhorns' playoff run, but the best part of a solid defense last year were two game-wrecking interior linemen (Byron Murphy and T'Vondre Sweat). Without them, transition to the SEC could come with some growing pains.

Ranking: Could be No. 3.

Opener: vs. Western Kentucky, Aug. 31.

Reality check: Replacing the greatest coach of all time has to come with some regression. Just how much can Kalen DeBoer limit it, now coaching in the toughest conference in the country?

Ranking: Even without Nick Saban, the Tide gets the benefit of the doubt.

Opener: vs. Furman, Aug. 31.

Reality check: Lane Kiffin has already warned that his team of portal All-Stars needs to be more than just a flashy assemblage of individual talent.

Ranking: Maybe we're actually underrating the Rebels?

Opener: at No. 20 Texas A&M, Aug. 31.

Reality check: An inexperienced offensive line plus a new quarterback plus a new play-caller. That's a lot of new stuff that needs to work well for a team that's been penciled in as playoff-or-bust.

Ranking: Little high.

Opener: at West Virginia, Aug. 31.

Reality check: The Nittany Lions enter another season hoping for a No. 1 receiver (maybe Ohio State transfer Julian Fleming?) to emerge for quarterback Drew Allar.

Ranking: About right.

Opener: vs. Fresno State, Aug. 31.

Reality check: The Wolverines' offense is almost a complete rebuild, starting at quarterback where third-year player Alex Orji is a physical specimen at 6-2, 235, with one career pass attempt.

Ranking: Too high for so much turnover.

Opener: vs. Georgia Tech in Dublin, Ireland, Aug. 24.

Reality check: The Seminoles returned to the field of elite teams last season. The next test for coach Mike Norvell is sustainability after saying goodbye to the core of that team. There is still talent, but Florida State needs new difference-makers and tone-setters to emerge and that's not a given.

Ranking: Too low.

Opener: vs. Murray State, Aug. 29.

Reality check: The Tigers look like a prime candidate for regression. Remember, an 11-win season that ended with a bowl victory against Ohio State started with three September victories by a total of 14 points against Middle Tennessee, Kansas State and Memphis.

Ranking: Too high.

Opener: vs. Southern Utah, Aug. 29.

Reality check: Conventional wisdom suggests the return of QB Cam Rising and TE Brant Kuithe from knee injuries will have the Utes' offense humming again. After missing an entire season, that is probably not a given.

Ranking: About right.

Opener: vs. No. 23 USC in Las Vegas, Sept. 1.

Reality check: The Tigers are replacing a Heisman-winning quarterback, two receivers drafted in the first round and their coordinator. Even if the defense improves — and it better — that's a potentially huge dropoff on offense.

Ranking: Too low.

Opener: vs. No. 1 Georgia in Atlanta, Aug. 31.

Reality check: Coach Dabo Swinney is banking on the second season of QB Cade Klubnik as a starter in coordinator Garrett Riley's scheme to finally fix an offense that has ranked 103rd, 72nd and 98th in the country in yards per play the last three seasons. The Tigers don't just need a step forward, they need a quantum leap.

Ranking: Little high.

Opener: vs. Chattanooga, Aug. 31.

Reality check: Nothing like the promise of a five-star quarterback to raise expectations. Volunteers fans are fired up for Nico Iamaleava, surrounded by a strong supporting cast, but growing pains often come with first-year starters.

Ranking: Too low.

Opener: vs. Temple, Aug. 30.

Reality check: Substitute Jackson Arnold for Nico Iamaleava and add a transition to the Southeastern Conference and there is plenty of reason for skepticism about the Sooners.

Ranking: Just right.

Opener: vs. South Dakota State, Aug. 31.

Reality check: Coming off a 10-win season with one of the most experienced rosters in the country, what could go wrong? Plenty for a team that managed to reach the Big 12 title game with one of the worst defenses in the country.

Ranking: Too high.

Opener: vs. UT Martin, Aug. 31.

Reality check: Another team preparing to unleash a second-year five-star quarterback, Avery Johnson. Transition elsewhere on offense and at coordinator could hold back a breakout performance by the Kansas native.

Ranking: Too low.

Opener: at Florida, Aug. 31.

Reality check: The Hurricanes could be this season's Texas. Third-year coach (Mario Cristobal), coming off two seasons of underwhelming results on the field but with a roster built for a breakout. Do Cristobal and his staff have the ability to bring it all together the way Steve Sarkisian and Co. did last year in Austin?

Ranking: Little low.

Opener: vs. No. 7 Notre Dame, Aug. 31.

Reality check: The Aggies probably would have declined the preseason ranking if given a choice, coming off three straight seasons of underachievement under Jimbo Fisher. Expectations are more modest this season and the roster is pretty tantalizing, but it's one thing to flip a program's fortunes in the ACC — as coach Mike Elko quickly did at Duke. It's quite another to do it in this SEC.

Ranking: Too high.

Opener: vs. New Mexico, Aug. 31.

Reality check: New coach Brent Brennan and his staff held on to headliners QB Noah Fifta and WR Tetairoa McMillan after Jedd Fisch bolted for Washington, but the coaching transition will make it much tougher for the Wildcats to sustain last season's leap forward.

Ranking: About right.

Opener: vs. Lindenwood, Aug. 31.

Reality check: The Jayhawks have a lot riding on the health of QB Jalon Daniels, who has been limited to 12 games the past two seasons because of injuries.

Ranking: Too high.

Opener: vs. LSU in Las Vegas, Sept. 1.

Reality check: Will a massive overhaul to the coaching staff fix the defense? QB Caleb Williams isn't around to bail out the Trojans anymore. Lincoln Riley has a lot to prove.

Ranking: Too high.

Opener: vs. Western Carolina,

Reality check: For the second straight year, the Wolfpack bring in a dual-threat transfer quarterback to perk up the offense. It didn't work last year with Brennan Armstrong. Will it be different with Grayson McCall?

Ranking: Too high.

Opener: vs. Illinois State, Aug. 31.

Reality check: The offense has to get better, right? Right?

Ranking: Just right.

Follow Ralph D. Russo at https://twitter.com/ralphDrussoAP

AP college football: https://apnews.com/hub/college-football

FILE - Texas running back CJ Baxter Jr. (4) runs past Rice cornerback Jonathan Jean during the first half of an NCAA college football game in Austin, Texas, Sept. 2, 2023. (AP Photo/Eric Gay, File)

Roma opened its women's Champions League campaign with an upset 1-0 win against two-time champion Wolfsburg, while record eight-time winner Lyon eased past tournament debutant Galatasaray 3-0 and Chelsea held on to beat Real Madrid 3-2 on Tuesday.

The most impressive performance belonged to Roma, considering it finished bottom in last season's group stage.

“It’s a huge victory, a result that we wanted at all costs,” Roma coach Alessandro Spugna said. “I think it is our best (result) in Europe. We delivered an intelligent performance, understanding the game and managing the difficult moments well."

All of Lyon's goals were headers, with France striker Kadidiatou Diani getting two of them in the other Group A match.

After Lyon lost the final to Barcelona last season, Lyon's coach Sonia Bompastor left to replace Emma Hayes at Chelsea.

Bompastor's new side was in charge for long spells at Stamford Bridge, before sloppy defending gave Madrid a late lifeline.

Roma took the lead early on at Tre Fontane stadium through captain Manuela Giugliano's 14th-minute penalty following a foul by right back Lynn Wilms.

Wolfsburg striker Alexandra Popp made her 99th competition appearance and is one away from becoming only the second player to reach 100, after Lyon’s Wendie Renard.

But it was defender Marina Hegering who was Wolfsburg’s most dangerous threat, and she twice went close with headers as the 2023 runner-up chased an equalizer.

Goalkeeper Camelia Ceasar made several saves to keep out the German side.

“We knew we were facing a top team, but we prepared well," Roma midfielder Giada Greggi said. "These games make you grow in every aspect: mental, technical, tactical.”

Lyon won the trophy five consecutive times during its heyday and was runner-up last season to Barcelona.

Diani headed in a 34th-minute cross from Mali winger Tabitha Chawinga, who assisted again moments before the break with a looping left-wing cross to give Canada's Vanessa Gilles an easy header from near the goal line.

Galatasaray goalkeeper Gamze Yaman denied Lyon before Diani nodded in Amel Majri's left-wing cross in the 77th.

Ada Hegerberg, who won the first women’s Ballon d’Or, went close to adding to her record 64 competition goals when she glanced a header wide in stoppage time.

Bompastor was replaced at Lyon by Joe Montemurro.

French hopes firmly rest with his side after Paris Saint-Germain — a semifinalist last season — was eliminated by Juventus in qualifying.

Hayes left Chelsea to lead the United States women and immediately made her mark with gold at the Paris Olympics.

Not seeing her patrolling the touchline must have felt unfamiliar for home fans after her 12 years in charge, which included a semfinal loss to Barcelona last season.

But they were cheering in the second minute when Sjoeke Nüsken forced the ball in after challenging for Johanna Rytting Kaneryd’s cross with Madrid defender Sheila Garcia.

Midfielder Guro Reiten's crisp penalty made it 2-0, but Madrid pulled one back shortly before the break when forward Alba Redondo's low shot went through the legs of goalkeeper Zecira Musovic.

A looping header from Colombia striker Mayra Ramírez made it 3-1 early into the second half.

Chelsea looked in control but some muddled defending led to a scramble and Colombian Linda Caicedo pounced for the Spanish side in the 84th.

In Group B’s other game, midfielder Kayleigh van Dooren struck in each half as Dutch side Twente won 2-0 at Celtic.

Barca’s quest for a third straight title begins on Wednesday with a trip to Manchester City, while Swedish club Hammarby faces St. Pölten of Austria in the other Group D game.

AP soccer: https://apnews.com/hub/soccer

Chelsea's Guro Reiten celebrates after scoring her side's second goal during the women's Champions League group B soccer match between FC Chelsea and Real Madrid in London, England, Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024. (Zac Goodwin/PA via AP)

FC Twente's Kayleigh van Dooren, right, celebrates scoring their side's first goal of the game during the UEFA Women's Champions League group stage match between Celtic and Twente at New Douglas Park, Hamilton, Britain, Tuesday Oct. 8, 2024. (Andrew Milligan/PA via AP)

Chelsea's Lucy Bronze, left, and Real Madrid's Alba Redondo, right, challenge for the ball during the women's Champions League group B soccer match between FC Chelsea and Real Madrid in London, England, Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024. (Zac Goodwin/PA via AP)

Chelsea's scorer Mayra Ramirez and her teammate Guro Reiten, right, celebrate their side's thirrd goal during the women's Champions League group B soccer match between FC Chelsea and Real Madrid in London, England, Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024. (Zac Goodwin/PA via AP)

Chelsea's players huddle up before the women's Champions League group B soccer match between FC Chelsea and Real Madrid in London, England, Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024. (Zac Goodwin/PA via AP)

Chelsea's Guro Reiten scores her side's second goal during the women's Champions League group B soccer match between FC Chelsea and Real Madrid in London, England, Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024. (Zac Goodwin/PA via AP)

AS Roma's Elena Linari during a women's Champions League Group A soccer match between AS Roma and Wolfsburg at the Tre Fontane stadium in Rome, Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024. (Fabrizio Corradetti/LaPresse via AP)

Wolfsburg's head coach Tommy Stroot during the women's Champions League Group A soccer match between Roma and Wolfsburg at the Tre Fontane stadium in Rome, Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024. (Fabrizio Corradetti/LaPresse via AP)

Wolfsburg's Svenja Huth , left, kicks the ball past Roma's Giada Greggi during the women's Champions League Group A soccer match between Roma and Wolfsburg at the Tre Fontane stadium in Rome, Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024. (Fabrizio Corradetti/LaPresse via AP)

AS Roma's Manuela Giugliano kicks the 1-0 goal against Wolfsburg during a women's Champions League Group A game between AS Roma and Wolfsburg at the Tre Fontane stadium in Rome, Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024. (Fabrizio Corradetti/LaPresse via AP)