European politicians say migration is out of control. The numbers tell a different story

BARCELONA, Spain (AP) — Unauthorized migration to European Union countries dropped significantly overall in the first eight months of this year, even as political rhetoric and violence against migrants increased and far-right parties espousing anti-immigration policies made gains at the polls.

There was, however, a spike in migrant arrivals to the Canary Islands, a Spanish archipelago close to the African coast that is increasingly used as an alternate stepping stone to continental Europe.

Irregular migration dominated the European parliamentary elections in June and influenced recent state elections in eastern Germany, where a far-right party won for the first time since World War II. The German government this week announced it was expanding border controls around its territory following recent extremist attacks.

Despite the heated debates, irregular crossings over the southern borders of the EU — the region that sees the most unauthorized migration — were down by 35% from January to August, according to the latest preliminary figures compiled by the United Nation's International Organization for Migration.

Nearly 115,000 migrants — less than 0.03% of the EU’s population — have arrived without permission into the EU via Mediterranean and Atlantic routes so far this year, compared to 176,252 during the same period last year, the U.N. says. In contrast, more than a million people, most of them fleeing conflict in Syria, entered the EU in 2015.

Data shared by the EU's border and coast guard agency Frontex shows a similar trend: Unauthorized crossings over the region's southern borders fell 39% overall this year compared to last year.

“The emergency is not numerical this year, nor was it last year," Flavio di Giacomo, a spokesperson with the IOM office for the Mediterranean, told The Associated Press.

Camille Le Coz, an associate director of the nonprofit Migration Policy Institute in Europe, said irregular migration is “getting way too much attention compared to the scope of the issue and compared to other issues Europe should be tackling, such as climate change."

The most commonly used route for migrants is from North Africa, across the dangerous Central Mediterranean to Italy. Yet roughly 64% fewer migrants disembarked in Italy this year than during the same period in 2023, according to IOM and Frontex numbers.

Experts say that’s a result of the EU-supported crackdown in Tunisia and Libya, which comes at a price for migrants, many of whom are systematically rounded up and dumped in the desert.

How long the downward trend will hold remains to be seen, however. Smugglers are always quick to adapt and find new routes around border controls. In the Eastern Mediterranean, the second-most-used route, smuggling networks are now using speedboats in increasingly aggressive ways to avoid controls and targeting islands farther away from the Turkish coast in the central Aegean, according to Greek authorities.

The number of migrants arriving in Greece by sea and overland during the first eight months of the year rose by 57%, U.N. data shows.

Meanwhile, irregular migration from West Africa to the Canary Islands via the Atlantic, the third-most-used route, has more than doubled: More than 25,500 migrants — mostly from Mali, Senegal and other West African countries — had arrived in the islands as of Aug. 31, the U.N. says.

Countless other migrants have gone missing along the route, where rough winds and strong Atlantic currents work against them. Several migrant boats, carrying only the remains of Malian, Mauritanian and Senegalese citizens, have been found this year drifting as far away as the Caribbean and off Brazil. Precise numbers are hard to verify, but the Spanish migrant rights group Walking Borders has reported more than 4,000 dead or missing.

The trend has Spanish authorities on alert for the fall, when conditions in the Atlantic are most favorable for the journey. The treacherousness of the route seems to have done little to dissuade would-be migrants, whose ranks have swelled to include people from Syria and Pakistan, according to rescuers.

“There are situations that need to be addressed, like the situation in the Canary Islands,” Le Coz acknowledged.

The adult migrants who successfully make it to the Canaries usually keep moving, headed for the promise of jobs and safety in mainland Spain or other European countries farther north. But that is not the case for thousands of unaccompanied minors. Under Spanish law, these young migrants must be taken under the wing of the local government, leading to overcrowded shelters and a political crisis. Earlier this year, island leaders fought unsuccessfully to have other regions of Spain share the responsibility.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez recently traveled to three West African countries in an attempt to curb migration. In Senegal, he and President Bassirou Diomaye Faye signed agreements to promote temporary work opportunities in Spain for Senegalese nationals and vocational training in Senegal. They also agreed to step up police cooperation.

Current anti-immigrant sentiments notwithstanding, Europe’s aging population, declining birth rates and labor shortages have only increased the need for immigrant workers to sustain pensions and boost economic growth.

And as long as migrants lack opportunities in their own countries, their exodus will continue. Add to this the growing instability and conflict in parts of Africa, the Middle East and Asia that have displaced millions.

“There is no magic deterrence,” Le Coz said. “Migrants end up taking the toll of all of this: They are risking their lives, doing jobs in Europe where they face uncertain legal status for years and are vulnerable to all sorts of exploitation."

While long-term solutions to tackle unauthorized migration are being implemented, such as temporary work programs for migrants, they are still falling short.

“That’s one step in the right direction, but this needs to happen at a much larger scale, and they need the private sector to be more involved,” Le Coz added.

Follow AP's coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/migration

CORRECTS TO DELETE THE EXTRANEOUS WORD OF "UNAUTHORIZED" - FILE - A child is carried ashore from a crowded wooden boat as migrants arrive at the port in La Restinga on the Canary island of El Hierro, Spain, on Aug. 18, 2024. (AP Photo/Maria Ximena, File)

CORRECTS TO DELETE THE EXTRANEOUS WORD OF "UNAUTHORIZED" - FILE - Migrants crowd a wooden boat as they sail to the port in La Restinga on the Canary island of El Hierro, Spain, on Aug. 18, 2024. (AP Photo/Maria Ximena, File)

CORRECTS TO DELETE THE EXTRANEOUS WORD OF "UNAUTHORIZED" FROM THE SUBJECTS - FILE - Migrants crowd a wooden boat as they sail to the port in La Restinga on the Canary island of El Hierro, Spain, on Aug. 18, 2024. (AP Photo/Maria Ximena, File)

FILE - A child is carried ashore from a crowded wooden boat as unauthorized migrants arrive at the port in La Restinga on the Canary island of El Hierro, Spain, on Aug. 18, 2024. (AP Photo/Maria Ximena, File)

FILE - Unauthorized migrants crowd a wooden boat as they sail to the port in La Restinga on the Canary island of El Hierro, Spain, on Aug. 18, 2024. (AP Photo/Maria Ximena, File)

FILE - Unauthorized migrants react as they arrive at the port in La Restinga on the Canary island of El Hierro, Spain, on, Aug. 19, 2024. (AP Photo/Maria Ximena, File)

FILE - Unauthorized migrants crowd a wooden boat as they sail to the port in La Restinga on the Canary island of El Hierro, Spain, on Aug. 18, 2024. (AP Photo/Maria Ximena, File)

TOKYO (AP) — Official campaigning for Japan's Oct. 27 parliamentary election began Tuesday with new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba seeking a mandate for his policies and for reforms after the governing party’s political funds scandal.

More than 1,300 candidates were expected to enter the races for the 465-seat Lower House before registration closes later Tuesday.

Ishiba called the snap election after he took office as prime minister on Oct. 1. As customary for Liberal Democratic Party leaders over the past decade, he was to start his campaign in Fukushima to renew his pledge to support the area’s recovery from the 2011 nuclear disaster.

With the early election, Ishiba is seeking to secure a majority in the lower house, the more powerful of Japan's two parliamentary chambers, before the congratulatory mood fades.

The move has been criticized as prioritizing an election rather than policies and for allowing little debate.

A majority for the ruling coalition would be 233 seats between his LDP and its junior coalition partner Komeito. Prior to the dissolution, the coalition held 288 seats, including 256 by LDP.

The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, which briefly ruled Japan from 2009-2012, sees the public anger over the LDP funds scandal as a rare chance to gain ground by appealing to conservative swing voters. The liberal-leaning CDPJ is making a conservative shift and now has a centrist leader Yoshihiko Noda, also a former prime minister.

“A leadership change is the biggest political reform,” Noda said.

Political watchers say Japan’s opposition has remained too fractured to push the governing party out of power, which it has held almost without interruption in postwar times.

While support ratings in Kyodo News survey for Ishiba’s new government already dipped from above 50% to 42% just over a week from taking office, LDP was still by far a voter favorite among all political parties.

Follow AP's Asia-Pacific coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/asia-pacific

Yoshihiko Noda, leader of Japan's opposition Constitutional Democratic Party delivers a speech in Hachioji, outskirts of Tokyo as official campaigning for a parliamentary election later this month officially kicked off Tuesday, Oct. 15, 2024. (Kyodo News via AP)

Japan's Prime Minister and head of the governing Liberal Democratic Party Shigeru Ishiba delivers a speech in Iwaki, Fukushima prefecture, Japan as official campaigning for a parliamentary election later this month officially kicked off Tuesday, Oct. 15, 2024. (Kyodo News via AP)