Netanyahu mulls plan to empty northern Gaza of civilians and cut off aid to those left inside

JERUSALEM (AP) — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is examining a plan to seal off humanitarian aid to northern Gaza in an attempt to starve out Hamas militants, a plan that, if implemented, could trap without food or water hundreds of thousands of Palestinians unwilling or unable to leave their homes.

Israel has issued many evacuation orders for the north throughout the yearlong war, the most recent of which was Sunday. The plan proposed to Netanyahu and the Israeli parliament by a group of retired generals would escalate the pressure, giving Palestinians a week to leave the northern third of the Gaza Strip, including Gaza City, before declaring it a closed military zone.

Those who remain would be considered combatants — meaning military regulations would allow troops to kill them — and denied food, water, medicine and fuel, according to a copy of the plan given to The Associated Press by its chief architect, who says the plan is the only way to break Hamas in the north and pressure it to release the remaining hostages.

The plan calls for Israel to maintain control over the north for an indefinite period to attempt to create a new administration without Hamas, splitting the Gaza Strip in two.

There has been no decision by the government to fully carry out the so-called “Generals’ Plan,” and it is unclear how strongly it's being considered.

When asked if the evacuation orders in northern Gaza marked the first stages of the “Generals' Plan,” Israeli military spokesperson Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani said no.

“We have not received a plan like that,” he said.

But one official with knowledge of the matter said parts of the plan are already being implemented, without specifying which parts. A second official, who is Israeli, said Netanyahu “had read and studied” the plan, “like many plans that have reached him throughout the war,” but didn't say whether any of it had been adopted. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity, because the plan isn't supposed to be discussed publicly.

On Sunday, Israel launched an offensive against Hamas fighters in the Jabaliya refugee camp north of the city. The amount of aid reaching the north has declined significantly since Oct. 1, according to the U.N.

The U.S. State Department spokesperson has said Washington is against any plan that would bring direct Israeli occupation in Gaza.

Human rights groups say the plan would likely starve civilians and that it flies in the face of international law, which prohibits using food as a weapon and forcible transfers. Accusations that Israel is intentionally limiting food to Gaza are central to the genocide case brought against it at the International Court of Justice, charges Israel denies.

A coalition of Israeli NGOs on Monday urged the international community to act, noting that “there are alarming signs that the Israeli military is beginning to quietly implement” the plan.

“States have an obligation to prevent the crimes of starvation and forcible transfer,” they wrote, warning that continuing a “‘wait and see’ approach will enable Israel to liquidate northern Gaza.”

So far, very few Palestinians have heeded the latest evacuation order. Some are older, sick or afraid to leave their homes, but many fear there’s nowhere safe to go and that they will never be allowed back. Israel has prevented those who fled earlier in the war from returning.

“All Gazans are afraid of the plan,” said Jomana Elkhalili, a 26-year-old Palestinian aid worker for Oxfam living in Gaza City with her family.

“Still, they will not flee. They will not make the mistake again ... We know the place there is not safe,” she said, referring to southern Gaza, where most of the population is huddled in dismal tent camps and airstrikes often hit shelters. “That’s why people in the north say it’s better to die than to leave.”

The plan has emerged as Hamas has shown enduring strength, firing rockets into Tel Aviv and regrouping in areas after Israeli troops withdraw, bringing repeated offensives.

After a year of devastating war with Hamas, Israel has far fewer ground troops in Gaza than it did a few months ago and in recent weeks has turned its attention to Hezbollah, launching an invasion of southern Lebanon. There is no sign of progress on a cease-fire in either front.

Israel’s offensive on the strip has killed more than 42,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry, which doesn't distinguish between civilians and combatants, but says more than half of the dead are women and children.

The Generals’ Plan was presented to the parliament last month by a group of retired generals and high-ranking officers, according to publicly available minutes. Since then, officials from the prime minister’s office called seeking more details, according to its chief architect, Giora Eiland, a former head of the National Security Council.

Israeli media reported that Netanyahu told a closed parliamentary defense committee session that he was considering the plan.

Eiland said the only way to stop Hamas and bring an end to the yearlong war is to prevent its access to aid.

“They will either have to surrender or to starve,” Eiland said. “It doesn’t necessarily mean that we’re going to kill every person,” he said. “It will not be necessary. People will not be able to live there (the north). The water will dry up.”

He believes the siege could force Hamas to release some 100 Israeli hostages still being held by the group since its Oct. 7 attack that triggered Israel’s campaign. At least 30 of the hostages are presumed dead.

Human rights groups are appalled.

“I’m most concerned by how the plan seems to say that if the population is given a chance to evacuate and they don’t, then somehow they all turn into legitimate military targets, which is absolutely not the case,” said Tania Hary, executive director of Gisha, an Israeli organization dedicated to protecting Palestinians’ right to move freely within Gaza.

The copy of the plan shared with the AP says that if the strategy is successful in northern Gaza, it could then be replicated in other areas, including tent camps further to the south sheltering hundreds of thousands of Palestinians.

When asked about the plan Wednesday, U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said the U.S. was going to “make absolutely clear that it’s not just the United States that opposes any occupation of Gaza, any reduction in the size of Gaza, but it is the virtual unanimous opinion of the international community.”

The north, including Gaza City, was the initial target of Israel’s ground offensive early in the war, when it first ordered everyone there to leave. Entire neighborhoods have been reduced to rubble since then.

About 80 trucks carrying aid have entered through crossings in Gaza's north since Oct. 1, down from roughly 60 trucks a day previously, according to the U.N. website tracking deliveries. A senior U.N. official said one small shipment of fuel for hospitals has entered the north since Oct. 1. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss confidential information.

COGAT, the Israeli body facilitating aid crossings into Gaza, denied that crossings to the north have been closed, but didn't respond when asked how many trucks have entered in recent days.

The U.N. official said that only about 100 Palestinians have fled the north since Sunday.

“At least 400,000 people are trapped in the area,” Philippe Lazzarini, head of the U.N.’s agency for Palestinian refugees, wrote on X Thursday. “With almost no basic supplies available, hunger is spreading.”

Troops have already cut off roads between Gaza City and areas further north, making it difficult for people to flee, said two doctors in the far north — Mohammed Salha, director of al-Awda Hospital, and Dr. Rana Soloh, at Kamal Adwan Hospital.

Melanie Lidman contributed to this report from Jerusalem.

FILE - Palestinian women and their children walk though destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Jebaliya, northern Gaza Strip after Israeli forces withdrew from the area, on May 31, 2024. (AP Photo/Enas Rami)

FILE - Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Jebaliya, northern Gaza Strip, on May 30, 2024. (AP Photo/Enas Rami, File)

FILE - Palestinian patients carry their belongings on their way back to the Gaza Strip after receiving medical treatment in Israel, near the Erez crossing between Gaza and Israel, in the town of Beit Hanoun, northern Gaza Strip, on Sept. 19, 2023. (AP Photo/Adel Hana)

FILE - Palestinians salvage items from the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Jebaliya, northern Gaza Strip after Israeli forces withdrew from the area, Friday, May 31, 2024. (AP Photo/Enas Rami, File)

FILE - Hana Al-Rai, 3, left, who suffers from diabetes, a weakened immune system and malnutrition, rests at Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital in Deir al-Balah in the central Gaza Strip, where she is receiving treatment, on June 1, 2024. The family is displaced from the northern Gaza Strip. (AP Photo/Jehad Alshrafi)

FILE - Israeli soldiers exit a tunnel that the military says Hamas militants used to attack the Erez crossing in the northern Gaza Strip, Friday, Dec. 15, 2023. (AP Photo/Ariel Schalit, File)

FILE - An Israeli soldier stands guard near trucks carrying humanitarian aid supplies bound for the Gaza Strip on the Palestinian side of the Erez crossing between southern Israel and northern Gaza, on May 1, 2024. (AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg, File)

FILE - An aircraft airdrops humanitarian aid over the northern Gaza Strip, as seen from central Gaza, Tuesday, April 30, 2024. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana, File)

FILE - Reired Israeli Gen. Giora Eiland speaks to army officers before holding a press briefing at Israel's Defense Ministry in Tel Aviv, Israel, on July 12, 2010. (AP Photo/Ariel Schalit, File)

FILE - Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu addresses the 79th session of the United Nations General Assembly, Friday, Sept. 27, 2024. (AP Photo/Pamela Smith, File)

FILE - Israeli soldiers gather near a gate to walks through an inspection area for trucks carrying humanitarian aid supplies bound for the Gaza Strip, on the Israeli side of the Erez crossing into northern Gaza, on May 1, 2024. (AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg, File)

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — Eight members of the OPEC+ alliance of oil exporting countries decided Thursday to put off increasing oil production as they face weaker than expected demand and competing production from non-allied countries — factors that could keep oil prices stagnant into next year.

The OPEC+ members decided at an online meeting to postpone by three months production increases that had been scheduled to take effect Jan. 1. The plan had been to start gradually restoring 2.2 million barrels per day over the course of 2025. That process will now be pushed back until October 2026.

OPEC+, which includes Saudi Arabia as the dominant member of the OPEC producers’ cartel, and Russia as the leading non-OPEC member in the 22-country alliance, have imposed several sets of cuts to agreed output to support prices.

Oil prices have been slack due to weaker than expected demand from China as well as increased production from countries like Brazil and Argentina that aren’t in OPEC+.

Among the beneficiaries of the current state of the oil market are U.S. motorists, who have seen gasoline prices fall to their lowest in 2 1/2 years to near $3 a gallon.

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. AP’s earlier story follows below.

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — Members of the OPEC + alliance of oil exporting countries will decide Thursday whether to put off plans to pump more crude amid sluggish demand and competing production from non-allied countries -- factors that could keep oil prices stagnant into next year.

Key beneficiaries of that would be U.S. motorists, who have seen gasoline prices fall to their lowest in 2 1/2 years to near $3 a gallon.

OPEC+, which includes Saudi Arabia as the dominant member of the OPEC producers' cartel, and Russia as the leading non-OPEC member in the 22-country alliance, is holding an online meeting over whether to put off production increases that are scheduled to take effect Jan. 1.

Eight OPEC+ members planned to start increasing production from Jan. 1 by gradually restoring 2.2 million barrels per day in previous production cuts. Analysts now say the group could postpone production increases for another three months as it monitors demand.

Oil prices have been slack due to weaker than expected demand from China as well as increased production from countries like Brazil and Argentina that aren't in OPEC+. Oil analysts have been busy reducing their estimates for demand for next year, meaning that OPEC+ could remain in a bind well into 2025.

The Saudis need oil revenue to carry out Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman’s ambitious plans to diversify his country’s economy, including the development of Neom, a $500 billion futuristic city in the desert. For Russia, oil export revenues are a key pillar of state finances and funding for the war against Ukraine. Holding back production risks losing market share. Yet increasing production and sales could lower prices in a global economy that analysts say is already well supplied with oil.

U.S. oil has been stuck around $70 per barrel and traded at $68.92 on Thursday ahead of the meeting, down from $80 in August. International benchmark Brent crude traded at $72.66 per barrel, down from around $80 in July.

One result of those slack prices is that U.S. average pump prices for gasoline fell to $3.03 a gallon this week, the lowest since May, 2021 and well down from their record peak of $5.02 from June, 2022, according to motoring club AAA.

Thirty-one U.S. states now have average gas prices below $3 a gallon.

U.S. oil price levels of $70 or less “are great for consumers,” said AAA spokesman Andrew Gross. Crude oil makes up about half the price of a gallon of gasoline, making crude the key factor on top of distribution costs and taxes. Motorists in Europe see far smaller fluctuations because taxes make up a much bigger chunk of the cost.

OPEC has cut its forecast for 2025 demand growth to 1.54 million barrels per day, from 1.85 million barrels per day in July. That is at the high end of estimates compared to those from the International Energy Agency at 990,000 barrels per day, U.S. Energy Information Administration at 1.22 million and energy intelligence firm Rystad Energy at 1.1 million.

Analysts at Commerzbank foresee Brent prices averaging $75 per barrel in the first quarter of next year and $80 for the remaining three quarters.

In the United States, Donald Trump’s return to the White House will likely lead to more fossil fuel production. Not only has the President-elect campaigned on more drilling, but his Treasury secretary nominee Scott Bessent has put together an economic plan with the goal of increasing domestic oil production by the equivalent of 3 million barrels a day. Bessent has indicated that the additional oil production would reduce inflationary pressures for U.S. consumers. But the Trump team has not fully outlined why oil producers would ramp up supplies and lower prices to levels that could hurt their profits.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is an intergovernmental organization founded in 1960, by Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. It has since expanded to 12 member countries. In 2016, largely in response to dramatically falling oil prices due to U.S. shale oil output, OPEC signed an agreement with 10 other oil-producing countries to create OPEC+.

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Josh Boak contributed from Washington DC.

This version corrects that the number of countries in the OPEC+ alliance is 22, not 23.

FILE -The logo of the Organization of the Petroleoum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is seen outside of OPEC's headquarters in Vienna, Austria, March 3, 2022. A street sign that says „one way" is positioned below the logo. (AP Photo/Lisa Leutner, File)