Earth's projected warming hasn't improved for 3 years. UN climate talks are still pushing

BAKU, Azerbaijan (AP) — For the third straight year, efforts to fight climate change haven't lowered projections for how hot the world is likely to get — even as countries gather for another round of talks to curb warming, according to an analysis Thursday.

At the United Nations climate talks, hosted in Baku, Azerbaijan, nations are trying to set new targets to cut emissions of heat-trapping gases and figure out how much rich nations will pay to help the world with that task.

But Earth remains on a path to be 2.7 degrees Celsius (4.9 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than pre-industrial times, according to Climate Action Tracker, a group of scientists and analysts who study government policies and translate that into projections of warming.

If emissions are still rising and temperature projections are no longer dropping, people should wonder if the United Nations climate negotiations — known as COP — are doing any good, said Climate Analytics CEO Bill Hare.

“There’s an awful lot going on that’s positive here, but on the big picture of actually getting stuff done to reduce emissions ... to me it feels broken,” Hare said.

The world has already warmed 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.3 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times. That's near the 1.5-degree (2.7 F) limit that countries agreed to at 2015 climate talks in Paris. Climate scientists say the atmospheric warming, mainly from human burning of fossil fuels, is causing ever more extreme and damaging weather including droughts, flooding and dangerous heat.

Climate Action Tracker does projections under several different scenarios, and in some cases, those are going up slightly.

“This is driven highly by China,” said Sofia Gonzales-Zuniga of Climate Analytics. Even though China's fast-rising emissions are starting to plateau, they are peaking higher than anticipated, she said.

Another upcoming factor not yet in the calculations is the U.S. elections. A Trump administration that rolls back the climate policies in the Inflation Reduction Act, and carries out the conservative blueprint Project 2025, would add 0.04 degree Celsius (0.07 Fahrenheit) to warming projections, Gonzales-Zuniga said. That's not much, but it could be more if other nations use it as an excuse to do less, she said.

“Fossil fuels and emissions are not peaking,” said Sherry Rehman, chair of climate and environment committee in Pakistan’s senate. After 29 years of climate talks, Rehman said countries are “still talking in bumper stickers.”

“We need a transformative solution. We need strong delivery,” Rehman said.

The major battle in Baku is over how much rich nations will pay for developing countries to decarbonize their energy systems, cope with future harms of climate change and pay for damage from warming's extreme weather.

A special independent group of experts commissioned by United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres issued its own estimate of costs and finances on Thursday, calling for a tripling of the old commitment. It said about $1 trillion a year is needed by developing nations from all outside sources, not just government grants.

“Advanced economies need to demonstrate a credible commitment” to helping poor nations, the report said.

Negotiations on a grand total and structuring the overall amount have taken “a step back” when a draft of just a few pages that was worked on for a year was rejected and the latest proposal with many options has more than 30 pages, said top European negotiator Veronika Bagi of Hungary. European Commission negotiator Jacob Werksman said there’s a “very significant gap″ between what rich and poor nations propose.

German climate envoy Jennifer Morgan said “private investment has to be brought to the table” in order to fulfill developing countries needs. But Mariana Paoli of Christian Aid said any number that comes out of negotiations that's not based in publicly-financed grants “will be meaningless.”

Relying on the private sector means climate cash will not be “needs based, it will be profit-driven," she said, adding that crises like the COVID-19 pandemic and bank bailouts proves that public funds are available.

“It’s about fairness, it’s about justice,” she said.

Getting climate cash is personal for many activists from vulnerable nations, like Sandra Leticia Guzman Luna, who is from Mexico and the director of the climate finance group for Latin America and the Caribbean. “We are observing the climate impacts causing a lot of costs, not only economic costs but also human losses,” she said.

Argentina withdrew from the climate talks on Wednesday on the orders of its president, climate skeptic Javier Milei. The Argentine government did not respond to requests from The Associated Press for comment.

Climate activists called the decision regrettable.

“It’s difficult to understand how a climate-vulnerable country like Argentina would cut itself from critical support," said Anabella Rosemberg, an Argentina native who works as a senior adviser at Climate Action Network International.

Also Wednesday, France's environment minister, who was set to lead the delegation, pulled out of the talks after Azerbaijan president Ilham Aliyev called out France and the Netherlands for their colonial histories.

Agnès Pannier-Runacher called Aliyev’s remarks on France and Europe “unacceptable." Speaking at the French Senate on Wednesday, Pannier-Runacher criticized Azerbaijan’s leader for using the fight against climate change “for a shameful personal agenda.”

“The direct attacks on our country, its institutions and its territories are unjustifiable,” she said.

COP29 negotiator Rafiyev declined to comment Thursday on Pannier-Runacher's decision, but said “Azerbaijan has made sure we have inclusive process.”

“We have opened our door for everyone to come for constructive, critical discussions,” he said.

Associated Press reporter Sylvie Corbet contributed from Paris.

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Activist Luisa Neubauer, of Germany, records on her phone at the COP29 U.N. Climate Summit, Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024, in Baku, Azerbaijan. (AP Photo/Peter Dejong)

Mukhtar Babayev, COP29 President, walks through the COP29 U.N. Climate Summit, Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024, in Baku, Azerbaijan. (AP Photo/Peter Dejong)

A person walks past art in the Turkey Pavilion at the COP29 U.N. Climate Summit, Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024, in Baku, Azerbaijan. (AP Photo/Sergei Grits)

People walk outside the Baku Olympic Stadium at the COP29 U.N. Climate Summit, Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024, in Baku, Azerbaijan. (AP Photo/Rafiq Maqbool)

Principal advisor for climate at the European Commission Jacob Werksman attends a news conference at the COP29 U.N. Climate Summit, Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024, in Baku, Azerbaijan. (AP Photo/Rafiq Maqbool)

Activists participate in a demonstration at the COP29 U.N. Climate Summit, Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024, in Baku, Azerbaijan. (AP Photo/Sergei Grits)

Activists participate in a demonstration calling for climate finance during the COP29 U.N. Climate Summit, Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024, in Baku, Azerbaijan. (AP Photo/Peter Dejong)

State secretary in Germany's economic cooperation ministry Jochen Flasbarth, left, and Jennifer Morgan, Germany climate envoy, attend a news conference at the COP29 U.N. Climate Summit, Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024, in Baku, Azerbaijan. (AP Photo/Sergei Grits)

Activists participate in a demonstration for climate justice during the COP29 U.N. Climate Summit, Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024, in Baku, Azerbaijan. (AP Photo/Peter Dejong)

Attendees arrive for the day at the COP29 U.N. Climate Summit, Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024, in Baku, Azerbaijan. (AP Photo/Peter Dejong)

Activists participate in a demonstration calling for climate finance during the COP29 U.N. Climate Summit, Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024, in Baku, Azerbaijan. (AP Photo/Peter Dejong)

Activists with signs spell out "pay up" for climate finance in the Baku Olympic Stadium during the COP29 U.N. Climate Summit, Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024, in Baku, Azerbaijan. (AP Photo/Sergei Grits)

Attendees arrive for the day at the COP29 U.N. Climate Summit, Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024, in Baku, Azerbaijan. (AP Photo/Rafiq Maqbool)

Activists participate in a demonstration for climate finance at the COP29 U.N. Climate Summit, Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024, in Baku, Azerbaijan. (AP Photo/Peter Dejong)

DEIR AL-BALAH, Gaza Strip (AP) — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Joe Biden spoke Sunday about efforts to reach a ceasefire and hostage release deal in the Israel-Hamas war, a sign of the intensifying push to reach a deal before Donald Trump’s inauguration next week.

Talks mediated over the past year by the United States, Egypt and Qatar have repeatedly stalled at moments when they seemed close to a deal. Still, in recent days, U.S. officials have expressed hope of sealing an agreement.

Sunday’s call between Biden and Netanyahu came as the head of Israel’s Mossad foreign intelligence agency, David Barnea, and Biden’s top Mideast adviser, Brett McGurk, were both in the Qatari capital Doha. Barnea’s presence, confirmed by Netanyahu’s office, meant high-level Israeli officials who would need to sign off on any agreement are now involved in talks.

McGurk has been working on final details of a text to be presented to both sides, Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, told CNN’s “State of the Union.” But he said he would not predict whether a deal can be reached by Jan. 20, the day of the inauguration.

“We are very, very close,” he said. “Yet being very close still means we’re far because until you actually get across the finish line, we’re not there.”

The White House and Netanyahu’s office both confirmed the phone call between the two leaders without providing details.

Just one brief ceasefire has been achieved in 15 months of war, and that was in the earliest weeks of fighting. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said this week a deal is “very close” and he hoped to complete it before handing over diplomacy to the incoming Trump administration.

Under discussion now is a phased ceasefire, with Netanyahu signaling he is committed only to the first phase, a partial hostage release in exchange for a weekslong halt in fighting.

Hamas has insisted on a full Israeli troop withdrawal from the largely devastated territory, but Netanyahu has insisted on destroying Hamas’ ability to fight in Gaza.

Issues in the talks have included which hostages would be released in the first part of a phased ceasefire deal, which Palestinian prisoners would be released and the extent of any Israeli troop withdrawal from population centers in Gaza.

Israel’s campaign in Gaza has killed more than 46,000 Palestinians, the majority women and children, according to the territory’s Health Ministry, whose count does not give a breakdown between fighters and civilians. Israel’s campaign was triggered by Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023 attack, in which militants killed some 1,200 people and abducted around 250 others.

Families of the roughly 100 hostages still held in Gaza are pressing Netanyahu to reach a deal to bring their loved ones home. Israelis rallied again Saturday night in the city of Tel Aviv, with photos of hostages on display.

In Gaza, Palestinians were tempering their hopes for a stop to Israel’s campaign, which has devastated much of the territory and driven more than 80% of its 2.3 million people from their homes.

“We hear that there are negotiations every day, but we see nothing,” said Mazen Hammad, a resident of the southern city of Khan Younis. “When we see it on the ground, then we believe that there is a truce.”

Melzer reported from Nahariya, Israel.

Follow coverage of the war at https://apnews.com/hub/israel-hamas-war

Israeli soldiers and relatives carry the flag-draped casket of Sergeant Yahav Maayan, who was killed in combat in the Gaza Strip, during his funeral at a military cemetery in Modiin, Israel, Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025. (AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg)

Israeli soldiers and relatives carry the flag-draped casket of Sergeant Yahav Maayan, who was killed in combat in the Gaza Strip, during his funeral at a military cemetery in Modiin, Israel, Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025. (AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg)

The family of Israeli soldier Sergeant Yahav Maayan who was killed in combat in the Gaza Strip, attends his funeral at a military cemetery in Modiin, Israel, Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025. (AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg)

Gali and Nir, the parents of the Israeli soldier Sergeant Yahav Maayan who was killed in combat in the Gaza Strip, react next to his grave during his funeral at a military cemetery in Modiin, Israel, Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025. (AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg)

Nir, the father of Israeli soldier Sergeant Yahav Maayan who was killed in combat in the Gaza Strip, reacts next to his son's grave during his funeral at a military cemetery in Modiin, Israel, Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025. (AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg)

Mourners pray over the bodies of 5-year-old Dima Eid, her uncle, and her grandfather, who were killed in an Israeli airstrike on Saturday, during their funeral in Deir al-Balah, central Gaza Strip, Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Mohammad Eid carries the body of one of his three relatives killed on Saturday in an Israeli airstrike, as they are prepared for the funeral in Deir al-Balah, central Gaza Strip, Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Gali the mother of the Israeli soldier Sergeant Yahav Maayan who was killed in combat in the Gaza Strip, reacts next to his son's grave during his funeral at a military cemetery in Modiin, Israel, Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025. (AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg)

A girl watches as Mohammad Eid mourns his cousin Dima, along with her uncle and grandfather, who were killed in an Israeli airstrike on Saturday, during their funeral in Deir al-Balah, central Gaza Strip, Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Gali the mother of the Israeli soldier Sergeant Yahav Maayan who was killed in combat in the Gaza Strip, reacts next to his son's grave during his funeral at a military cemetery in Modiin, Israel, Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025. (AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg)