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Alone against a renewed insurgency, Assad may face the end of his rule without his strongest allies

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Alone against a renewed insurgency, Assad may face the end of his rule without his strongest allies
News

News

Alone against a renewed insurgency, Assad may face the end of his rule without his strongest allies

2024-12-08 14:03 Last Updated At:14:11

BEIRUT (AP) — The last time Syrian President Bashar Assad was in serious trouble was 10 years ago, at the height of the country’s civil war, when his forces lost control over parts of the largest city, Aleppo, and his opponents were closing in on the capital, Damascus.

Back then, he was rescued by his chief international backer, Russia, and longtime regional ally Iran, which along with Lebanon’s powerful Hezbollah militia helped Assad's forces retake Aleppo, tipping the war firmly in his favor.

Now, the Syrian leader appears to be largely on his own and may face the end of his 24-year rule.

A Syrian opposition war monitor said Assad left the country on a flight from Damascus early Sunday as opposition fighters said they entered the capital in a swiftly developing crisis for Assad. The insurgency's shock offensive in recent days quickly captured Aleppo and other key cities across the country's northwest and in the south.

Russia is preoccupied with its war in Ukraine and Hezbollah, which at one point sent thousands of its fighters to shore up Assad’s forces, has been weakened by a yearlong conflict with Israel. Iran, meanwhile, has seen its proxies across the region degraded by Israeli airstrikes.

Moreover, Syrian troops have been hollowed out by 13 years of war and economic crises, with little will left to fight.

On Saturday, as rebels reached the outskirts of Damascus, a U.N. envoy called for an “orderly political transition" and even Sergey Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, said he couldn't forecast what was to happen next.

Syrian Prime Minister Mohammed Ghazi Jalali said on Sunday that the government was ready to “extend its hand” to the opposition and hand over its functions to a transitional government.

“I am in my house and I have not left, and this is because of my belonging to this country,” Jalili said in a video statement. He called on Syrian citizens not to deface public property.

Until recently, it seemed Syria’s president was almost out of the woods. He never really won the long-running civil war, and large parts of the country were still outside his control.

But after 13 years of conflict, it appeared the worst was over and the world was ready to forget. Once viewed as a regional pariah, Assad saw Arab countries warming up to him again, renewing ties and reinstating Syria’s membership in the Arab League. Earlier this year, Italy also decided to reopen its embassy in Damascus after a decade of strained relations.

In the aftermath of one of the world's largest humanitarian crises, aid groups and international donors in Syria began pivoting toward spending more on the country's recovery than on emergency assistance, providing a lifeline for Syrians and restoring basic services.

But then the sudden offensive launched by insurgents on Nov. 27 reignited the war and caught everyone off guard with its scope and speed.

It also left Syria’s neighbors anxious, wary that violence and refugees could spill across borders and worried about the growing influence of Islamist groups, a major concern for most of Syria’s Arab neighbors.

Analysts say a confluence of geopolitical developments beginning with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, followed by the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza that started on Oct. 7, 2023, helped create the opportunity for Assad’s opponents to pounce.

As the rebels advanced this past week, Syrian forces appeared to melt away, putting up no resistance, with several reports of defection. Russian forces carried out occasional airstrikes. Hezbollah’s leader in Lebanon said the group will continue to support Syria, but made no mention of sending fighters again.

“The rebel assault underscores the precarious nature of regime control in Syria,” said Mona Yacoubian, an analyst with the United States Institute for Peace, in an analysis.

“Its sudden eruption and the speed with which rebel groups managed to overtake Aleppo ... expose the complex dynamics that reside just below the surface in Syria and can transform superficial calm into major conflict.”

Aron Lund, a Syria expert with Century International, a New York-based think tank and a researcher with the Swedish Defense Research Agency, said the developments in Syria are a geopolitical disaster for Russia and Iran.

“They too were surely surprised by what happened, and they have all sorts of resource constraints," including Russia's war in Ukraine and Hezbollah's losses in Lebanon and Syria.

While the country’s conflict lines have been largely stalemated since 2020, Syria’s economic woes have only multiplied in the past few years.

The imposition of U.S. sanctions, a banking crisis in neighboring Lebanon and an earthquake last year contributed to the fact that almost all Syrians face extreme financial hardship.

That has caused state institutions and salaries to wither.

“If you can’t pay your soldiers a living wage, then maybe you can’t expect them to stay and fight when thousands of Islamists storm” their cities, Lund said. “It is just an exhausted, broken and dysfunctional regime” to start with.

Part of the insurgents’ attempt to reassert their grip on Aleppo, the city where they were ousted in 2016 after a grueling military campaign, was to issue a call to government soldiers and security agencies to defect, granting them what they called “protection cards,” which offer some sort of amnesty and assurances that they won’t be hunted down.

The spokesman for the insurgents, Hassan Abdul-Ghani, said more than 1,600 soldiers have applied for the cards over two days in Aleppo city.

Hundreds of defectors lined up outside city police stations Thursday to register their details with the insurgents.

Hossam al-Bakr, 33, originally from Hama who served in Damascus and defected four years earlier to Aleppo, said he came to “settle his position” and get a new ID.

The laminated card handed out to each defector was titled the “defection card.” It showed the name, ID number and place of service of each defector. It is issued by “The General Command: Military Operations Room.”

Charles Lister, a longtime Syria expert, said while most of the international community has written off the conflict as either frozen or finished, the armed opposition has never given up and has been training for such a scenario for years.

A ragtag group of militias, plagued by infighting and rivalry, spent years preparing and organizing, propelled by a dream to regain control of territory from Assad.

“The regime has been more vulnerable over the last year or two than it has perhaps been throughout the entirety of the conflict," Lister said. "And it has gotten used to the idea that if it can wait things out, it will ultimately prove to be the victor.”

Karam reported from London.

FILE - In this photo released by the official website of the office of the Iranian supreme leader, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, right, speaks with Syrian President Bashar Assad in a meeting in Tehran, Iran, Thursday, May 30, 2024. (Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader via AP, File)

FILE - In this photo released by the official website of the office of the Iranian supreme leader, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, right, speaks with Syrian President Bashar Assad in a meeting in Tehran, Iran, Thursday, May 30, 2024. (Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader via AP, File)

A Syrian opposition fighter holds a rocket launcher in front of the provincial government office, where an image of Syrian President Bashar Assad is riddled with bullets on the facade, in the aftermath of the opposition's takeover of Hama, Syria, Friday, Dec. 6, 2024. (AP Photo/Ghaith Alsayed)

A Syrian opposition fighter holds a rocket launcher in front of the provincial government office, where an image of Syrian President Bashar Assad is riddled with bullets on the facade, in the aftermath of the opposition's takeover of Hama, Syria, Friday, Dec. 6, 2024. (AP Photo/Ghaith Alsayed)

An image of Syrian President Bashar Assad, riddled with bullets, is seen on the facade of the provincial government office in the aftermath of the opposition's takeover of Hama, Syria, Friday, Dec. 6, 2024. (AP Photo/Omar Albam)

An image of Syrian President Bashar Assad, riddled with bullets, is seen on the facade of the provincial government office in the aftermath of the opposition's takeover of Hama, Syria, Friday, Dec. 6, 2024. (AP Photo/Omar Albam)

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Daytona after Dark: The good times never stop, even when the NASCAR racing does

2025-02-16 00:44 Last Updated At:01:00

DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. (AP) — The real peril of dumping your body in the belly of a “redneck wheelchair” for a wheelbarrow race comes when you fail to grip both sides of the vehicle. Leave one hand dangling, as one Daytona 500 fan foolishly did last year, and the tip of a finger may get sliced off and lost in the infield muck.

The afterparty morphed into a search party for the missing digit, iPhone lights on, people on knees scouring the ground in what proved to be a futile hunt. The finger never got restitched, though the fan did make a triumphant return to racing, only next time with gloves.

“The more they drink,” wheelbarrow race founder Cush Revette said, “the stupider they get.”

When the sun goes down at Daytona International Speedway, the green flag drops on the infield bash that annually celebrates the over-the-top campy nature of race week.

Wheel out the wheelbarrows. Bust out the karaoke machines and crank the volume to 11. Belly up to the homemade bars built with enough lumber to thin out a Home Depot.

At Daytona after dark, the good times never stop, even when the racing does at a track where, in both speed and celebrations, there are no limits.

The later it gets, the crazier it gets, and revelers compete in the booze-fueled races at their own risk. Though, the organizer noted, paramedics are stationed nearby.

“No liability whatsoever,” Revette said, laughing. “Just a whole lot of fun after the race.”

Line ’em up!

The No. 9 wheelbarrow rests next to one with the General Lee paint scheme, which is next to one nicknamed “Ross Crashtain” and on they go, the fastest cart on one wheel, where competitors sprint and stumble around a makeshift path to the finish — just keep an eye on the checkered flag stuck in the orange cone.

“Just rednecks coming through,” Revette said. “Couldn’t pass a sobriety test in the a.m., much less at night.”

Take a bleary-eyed look around, and the biggest party on a Daytona property so massive it houses its own lake is surely raging somewhere.

In the midst of a row of flashy RVs where flags for Earnhardt and Elliott fly, the baddest bar inside the speedway emerges. Named in honor of its designated spot and color destination, the joint dubbed Red 38 operates like your local neighborhood pub has been picked up and plopped inside the track.

Shots are freely passed around to Daytona regulars — keep an eye out for the Toxic Twins — and passersby. Bottles of booze line the shelves behind the bar and beer flows like at any other watering hole. The louder the music, the better chance some of the men will strip off their shirts and dance the night away. Two-time Daytona 500 champion Michael Waltrip and scores of NASCAR drivers have popped in for a nightcap and more over the last 17 years.

Cocktail attire required? Please. Try American flag overalls if you want to grab a seat at the bar and catch a game on the big screen.

“Seriously, where else can I go and I get to participate in some beverages, we can play music pretty much as loud as we want, we can smoke cigars, we can tell bad jokes for 10 straight days,” Red 38 founder Bill Fenton said.

Only at Daytona is tailgating as much of a sport as anything happening on the track.

Strong of heart, strong of foot, stronger of liver.

Step inside Red 38 and the roar of the stock cars is about the only sign its location is a racetrack. A banner displays the Speedweeks specials: red beans, rice and gumbo were served at the Super Bowl party, bartender Carmine mixed up old fashioneds at a Bourbon & Cigars night, and put on your neon and “whatever glows” for Saturday’s blacklight party.

Red 38 has last call around midnight (or two hours after track activity ends), but the carousing never really slows down.

“If you’ve got enough gas left in you, you can go two hours after that,” Fenton said. “You usually don’t.”

Hitch a ride on a tricked-out golf cart with under-glow lighting and rap music pulsating, zip past the neon palm trees and the scores of fans playing cornhole and stop when you hear JR Richards belt out “Friends in Low Places.”

Richards, of Mound, Minnesota, and his camping setup double as the hot spot for karaoke night, and everyone is invited. He made friends with other campers, and they have teamed up for years to provide the best in pre-recorded music. No guarantees on the quality of singers.

Last year, on a rainy night, more than 70 campers crammed under the tent for a rousing rendition of John Denver’s “Take Me Home, Country Roads.”

“It was probably the best experience I’ve ever been part of,” Richards said. “It’s more of a culture. Everyone’s looking out for each other. It’s a family environment. We’ve known people for 12 years here. We love to see them every time we come. We hang out with them pretty much all day and all night. It’s what we love to do.”

Plus, to the best of Richards’ knowledge, no camper has ever been injured belting out Garth Brooks. He can’t say the same about the time he went around the bend to watch wheelbarrow racing.

“I got ran over by the wheelbarrow a couple of years ago,” he said. “They kind of ran over my ankle.”

Climb up one ladder, then one more, over a few cardboard cutouts of NASCAR drivers and beer girls, and the 15-foot-high observation deck offers nearly a 360-degree view of the track — and comes with wafting whiffs of the Boston butt smoking on the grill.

Jay Colburn, of Greensboro, North Carolina, and seven childhood friends — Colburn reunited the group following a near-death experience and has spent thousands to make this happen — have camped at Daytona for eight years. They add to the spot annually, with the latest upgrade being a car hauler that Colburn converted into a five-bedroom suite with air conditioning; they grew tired of doubling up in a four-bed camper.

Colburn’s favorite memory? A NASCAR driver he declined to name that wrecked his golf cart by a nearby bar.

“He had about eight people hanging off his cart and he drove into somebody down there,” Colburn said. “And he got cussed out by a girl. They had to get him out of there. Just people being people.”

Let the guessing game begin.

Colburn believes there’s at least one infield rookie who would enjoy himself at his camping space: He’s counting on President Donald Trump returning to the Daytona 500 for the second time in five years. He gleefully recalled Trump’s pace lap in the armored presidential limo called “The Beast” in 2020.

There’s a chance a passenger car leaving the track might get shouted down by a kid and challenged to race a remote-control car. The beers, try four bucks for a 25-ounce can! Good luck scoring that deal at an NFL stadium or NBA arena. The flags, they promise it’s a “Bad Day To Be A Beer.” Dozens and dozens of crushed cans near each tent prove that slogan true.

Eventually it’s time to park the wheelbarrows, mute the microphones and chug that last beer.

No need to set an alarm for when the sun rises. The U.S. Air Force Thunderbirds will soon boom overhead to wake up everybody — and start the clock ticking toward the next party.

AP auto racing: https://apnews.com/hub/auto-racing

FILE - Fans fill the infield during activities before the NASCAR Daytona 500 auto race at Daytona International Speedway, Feb. 19, 2023, in Daytona Beach, Fla. (AP Photo/David Graham, File)

FILE - Fans fill the infield during activities before the NASCAR Daytona 500 auto race at Daytona International Speedway, Feb. 19, 2023, in Daytona Beach, Fla. (AP Photo/David Graham, File)

Chase Briscoe(19) leads the field at the start during the first of two NASCAR Daytona 500 qualifying auto races Thursday, Feb. 13, 2025, at Daytona International Speedway in Daytona Beach, Fla. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)

Chase Briscoe(19) leads the field at the start during the first of two NASCAR Daytona 500 qualifying auto races Thursday, Feb. 13, 2025, at Daytona International Speedway in Daytona Beach, Fla. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)

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