Global gross domestic product (GDP) growth is projected to moderate from 3.2 percent in 2024 to 3.1 percent in 2025 and 3.0 percent in 2026, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said in its latest economic outlook released on Monday.
In its previous economic outlook published in December 2024, the OECD projected that global GDP growth would be 3.3 percent in both 2025 and 2026.
The Paris-based OECD's projections were based primarily on weaker expected growth in the United States and the eurozone.
According to the OECD, the downward adjustment from its previous forecast is due to "higher trade barriers in several G20 economies and increased geopolitical and policy uncertainty weighing on investment and household spending."
The OECD emphasized that "significant risks remain" as further tit-for-tat tariffs between major global economies "would hit growth around the world and add to inflation."
Higher-than-expected inflation would prompt more restrictive monetary policy and could give rise to disruptive repricing in financial markets, according to the organization.
U.S. annual GDP growth is projected to be 2.2 percent in 2025, down from the OECD's 2.4 percent projection in December, before falling to 1.6 percent in 2026 -- a drop of 0.5 percentage points on the organization's previous forecast.
Likewise, the eurozone growth projection is 1.0 percent in 2025 and 1.2 percent in 2026, as heightened uncertainty keeps growth subdued.
Headline inflation in the G20 is now projected to fall from 5.3 percent in 2024, to 3.8 percent in 2025 and 3.2 percent in 2026, with core inflation in the advanced G20 economies projected to decline to 2.6 percent in 2025 and 2.4 percent in 2026 from 2.7 percent in 2024.
U.S. headline inflation in 2025 and 2026 is expected to be 2.8 percent and 2.6 percent, respectively, up 0.7 and 0.6 percentage points from the previous forecast.
The report also noted that central banks should remain vigilant given heightened uncertainty and the potential for higher trade costs to push up wage and price pressures.
Countries need to observe fiscal discipline to ensure debt sustainability and maintain the ability for governments to react to future shocks and accommodate current and future spending pressures, the report said.
Global GDP growth projected to slow down to 3.1 pct in 2025, 3 pct in 2026
China's push toward a greener future is once again in the spotlight at this year's annual political "two sessions", as lawmakers are reviewing a draft ecological environment code, a significant step toward establishing a comprehensive legal framework for ecological protection.
The draft code was submitted on March 5 to the ongoing fourth session of the 14th National People's Congress (NPC), China's top legislature, for deliberation.
Once adopted, it will become China's second formal statutory code, after the Civil Code, which was adopted in 2020.
The rule of law has been continuously strengthened to support the country's green progress. China already has more than 30 laws related to environmental protection, along with over 100 sets of administrative regulations and more than 1,000 sets of local rules.
The latest legislative move comes amid China's historic gains in ecological conservation over the past decade or so. Championing green development, the country has recorded the world's fastest growth in forest resources and afforestation, led globally in renewable energy development, and achieved one of the fastest national reductions in energy intensity worldwide.
The 1,242-article draft has five chapters, covering areas including pollution control, ecological protection, and green and low-carbon development.
Scholars involved in drafting the legislation say the code goes beyond broad legal principles. It is also designed to address environmental issues that affect people's daily lives.
"Electric vehicles are becoming very common in China. My family has one. We all think it environment-friendly. But have you ever thought about this question: how do we deal with the first generation of EV batteries after they expire a few years later? The same goes for wind turbine blades and solar panels," said Ding Lin, assistant professor of the Renmin University of China.
China's environmental progress has drawn global attention in recent years, from improving air quality to expanding renewable energy. Yet amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty, some observers have questioned whether the country will maintain the same pace of green transition.
"Last year during the COP30, even some friends who are very familiar with China asked me whether China will continue its green development path. I told them we have gradually worked out new policies. We have a very clear direction and goal. In a world full of uncertainties, we are providing the most certainty," said Wang Yi, an NPC deputy from east China's Zhejiang Province and professor of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
In a country pursuing modernization, taking the time to codify environmental laws sends a clear message: economic growth and environmental protection are not a trade-off to be managed, but a commitment to be upheld. For China, a beautiful environment is not a luxury for the future, it is a right for the present, and a responsibility to the next generation.
"This code reflects China's vision of harmonious coexistence between humanity and nature. It shows how development and environmental protection can move forward together," said Lyu Zhongmei, vice chair of the NPC Environmental Protection and Resources Conservation Committee.
China will accelerate the green transition across the board and cut carbon dioxide emissions per unit of the GDP by a total of 17 percent in the 2026-2030 period, according to a draft outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30) for national economic and social development submitted to the NPC for deliberation on March 5.
Chinese lawmakers review draft ecological environment code in major green legislative push
