Kurds in Iraq and Syria celebrate the Newroz festival of spring at a time of new political horizons

AKRE. Iraq (AP) — Kurds in Iraq and Syria this week marked the Newroz festival, a traditional celebration of spring and renewal, at a time when many are hoping that a new political beginning is on the horizon.

Newroz, the Farsi-language word for “new year,” is an ancient Persian festival that is celebrated in countries including Iraq, Syria, Turkey and Iran. It is characterized by colorful street festivals and torch-bearing processions winding their way into the mountains.

For many, Thursday and Friday's Newroz festivities symbolized not only the arrival of spring but also the spirit and aspirations of the Kurdish people, who are now facing a moment of transformation in the region.

The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, which holds sway in much of northeastern Syria, recently signed a landmark deal with the new government in Damascus that includes a ceasefire and eventual merging of the SDF into the Syrian army.

Meanwhile, the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, which has waged a decades-long insurgency in Turkey that has spilled over into conflict in Syria and northern Iraq, recently announced a ceasefire after the group's imprisoned leader, Abdullah Ocalan, called for its members to put down their weapons.

As the sun set behind the mountains of Akre in the semi-autonomous Kurdish region of northern Iraq Thursday, more than 1,500 volunteers climbed the steep hills, carrying burning torches as their faces shimmered in the light of the flame.

From a distance, their movements looked like a river of fire flowing up and down the mountain. At the top, small bonfires burned, while the sky was filled with the flashing colors of fireworks.

Women wearing colorful dresses with gold and silver jewelry and men dressed in traditional outfits with wide belts and turbans danced in the streets of the town and in the hills, Kurdish flags waving above the crowds.

The sound of dahol drums and zurna flutes echoed everywhere, mixed with modern Kurdish folk songs played from loudspeakers.

According to Akre’s directorate of tourism, some 88,000 people attended the event, including Kurds who traveled from around the region and the world. The substantial turnout came despite the fact that this year the festival coincides with Ramadan, during which many Kurds - like other Muslims - fast from sunrise to sunset daily.

Among those dancing on the hill was Hozan Jalil, who traveled from Batman city in Turkey. Jalil said he is happy about the peace process and hopeful that it will bear results, although he was also somewhat circumspect.

“I hope it won’t finish with regrets and our Kurdish people will not be deceived or cheated,” he said.

Jalil said Newroz to him represents unity between Kurdish people across national boundaries.

“This year, Newroz to me symbolizes the point of achieving freedom for all Kurdish people," he said.

For the people of Akre, Newroz has become a tradition that connects them to Kurds and others everywhere. A local from Akre, described her pride in hosting such a celebration in her town.

“It’s a great feeling that everyone from all over the world comes to Akre for this celebration because it makes Akre the capital of Newroz for the whole world," said Guevara Fawaz. She was walking through the town's main square with her family dressed in traditional Kurdish clothes. Like Jalil, she voiced hopes that the PKK-Turkey talks would progress and "achieve peace in all four parts of Kurdistan.”

Across the border in Syria, where former President Bashar Assad was unseated in a lightning rebel offensive in December, Newroz celebrations took place openly in the streets of the capital for the first time in more than a decade since anti-government protests spiraled into a civil war in 2011.

Hundreds of Kurds packed into Shamdeen Square in the Roken al-Din neighborhood, the main Kurdish area in the Syrian capital, to light the Newroz fire, waving Kurdish flags alongside the new, three-starred Syrian flag.

In the village of Hemo, just outside the city of Qamishli in northeastern Syria, the Kurdish flag, along with flags of Abdullah Ocalan and the SDF, waved high above the crowds as people danced in the streets.

The new rulers in Damascus, Islamist former insurgents, have promised to respect minorities. A temporary constitution announced earlier this month states that “citizens are equal before the law ... without discrimination based on race, religion, gender or lineage.” But many Kurds were unhappy that the text does not explicitly recognize Kurdish rights.

Mizgeen Tahir, a well-known Kurdish singer who attended the festivities in Hemo, said, “This year, Newroz is different because it’s the first Newroz since the fall of the Baath regime and authority," referring to the now-disbanded Baath party of the Assad dynasty.

But Syria's Kurdish region “is at a turning point now,” he said. "This Newroz, we’re unsure about our situation. How will our rights be constitutionally recognized?”

Media Ghanim, from Qamishli, who also joined the celebrations, said she is hopeful that after Assad's fall, "we will keep moving forward towards freedom and have our rights guaranteed in the Syrian constitution."

“We hope these negotiations will end with success, because we want our rights as Kurds,” she said.

Abdo reported from Hemo, Syria. Associated Press journalist Omar Sanadiki in Damascus contributed to this report.

Associated Press religion coverage receives support through the AP’s collaboration with The Conversation US, with funding from Lilly Endowment Inc. The AP is solely responsible for this content.

A child holds a flag showing Kurdish leader Abdullah Ocalan as he has his picture taken during Nowruz celebrations, in Amuda, Hasaka region, northeastern Syria, Thursday, March 20, 2025. (AP Photo/Baderkhan Ahmad)

A Syrian Kurdish girl wearing traditional clothing dances during a celebration of Nowruz, Kurdish New Year, in Qamishli, northeastern Syria, Friday March 21, 2025. (AP Photo/Baderkhan Ahmad)

Syrian Kurdish women, most of them wearing traditional clothing, gather to celebrate their Nowruz, Kurdish New Year, in Qamishli, northeastern Syria, Friday March 21, 2025. (AP Photo/Baderkhan Ahmad)

Syrian Kurdish women, some of them wearing traditional clothing, gather to celebrate their Nowruz, Kurdish New Year, in Qamishli, northeastern Syria, Friday March 21, 2025. (AP Photo/Baderkhan Ahmad)

Syrian Kurds gather to celebrate their Nowruz, Kurdish New Year, in Qamishli, northeastern Syria, Friday March 21, 2025. (AP Photo/Baderkhan Ahmad)

Syrian Kurdish women gather to celebrate their Nowruz, Kurdish New Year, in Qamishli, northeastern Syria, Friday March 21, 2025. (AP Photo/Baderkhan Ahmad)

Syrian Kurdish women, most of them wearing traditional clothing, gather to celebrate their Nowruz, Kurdish New Year, in Qamishli, northeastern Syria, Friday March 21, 2025. (AP Photo/Baderkhan Ahmad)

Iraqi Kurds holding lit torches walk up a mountain during a procession to celebrate their Nowruz, the Persian New Year, in Akra, in Iraq's northern autonomous Kurdish region, Thursday, March 20, 2025. (AP Photo/Hadi Mizban)

Iraqi Kurds holding lit torches walk up a mountain during a procession to celebrate their Nowruz, the Persian New Year, in Akra, in Iraq's northern autonomous Kurdish region, Thursday, March 20, 2025. (AP Photo/Hadi Mizban)

Iraqi Kurds celebrate Nowruz, the Persian New Year, in Akra, Iraq, Thursday, March 20, 2025. (AP Photo/Hadi Mizban)

Iraqi Kurds holding lit torches walk up a mountain during a procession to celebrate their Nowruz, the Persian New Year, Akra, Iraq, Thursday, March 20, 2025. (AP Photo/Hadi Mizban)

Iraqi Kurds walk up a mountain during a procession to celebrate their Nowruz, the Persian New Year, Akra, in Iraq's northern autonomous Kurdish region, Thursday, March 20, 2025. (AP Photo/Hadi Mizban)

Iraqi Kurds holding lit torches walk up a mountain during a procession to celebrate their Nowruz, the Persian New Year, in Akra, Iraq, Thursday, March 20, 2025. (AP Photo/Hadi Mizban)

Iraqi Kurds holding lit torches walk up a mountain during a procession to celebrate their Nowruz, the Persian New Year, in Akra, Iraq, Thursday, March 20, 2025. (AP Photo/Hadi Mizban)

Prediction markets let people wager on anything from a basketball game to the outcome of a presidential election — and recently, the downfall of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

The latter is drawing renewed scrutiny into this murky world of speculative, 24/7 transactions. Last week, an anonymous trader pocketed more than $400,000 after betting that Maduro would soon be out of office.

The bulk of the trader’s bids on the platform Polymarket were made mere hours before President Donald Trump announced the surprise nighttime raid that led to Maduro’s capture, fueling online suspicions of potential insider trading because of the timing of the wagers and the trader’s narrow activity on the platform. Others argued that the risk of getting caught was too big, and that previous speculation about Maduro’s future could have led to such transactions.

Polymarket did not respond to requests for comment.

The commercial use of prediction markets has skyrocketed in recent years, opening the door for people to wage their money on the likelihood of a growing list of future events. But despite some eye-catching windfalls, traders still lose money everyday. And in terms of government oversight in the U.S., the trades are categorized differently than traditional forms of gambling — raising questions about transparency and risk.

Here's what we know:

The scope of topics involved in prediction markets can range immensely — from escalation in geopolitical conflicts, to pop culture moments and even the fate of conspiracy theories. Recently, there’s been a surge of wages on elections and sports games. But some users have also bet millions on things like a rumored — and ultimately unrealized — “secret finale” for the Netflix’s “Stranger Things,” whether the U.S. government will confirm the existence of extraterrestrial life and how much billionaire Elon Musk might post on social media this month.

In industry-speak, what someone buys or sells in a prediction market is called an “event contract.” They're typically advertised as “yes” or “no” wagers. And the price of one fluctuates between $0 and $1, reflecting what traders are collectively willing to pay based on a 0% to 100% chance of whether they think an event will occur.

The more likely traders think an event will occur, the more expensive that contract will become. And as those odds change over time, users can cash out early to make incremental profits, or try to avoid higher losses on what they’ve already invested.

Proponents of prediction markets argue putting money on the line leads to better forecasts. Experts like Koleman Strumpf, an economics professor at Wake Forest University, think there’s value in monitoring these platforms for potential news — pointing to prediction markets’ past success with some election outcomes, including the 2024 presidential race.

Still, it's never a “crystal ball,” he noted, and prediction markets can be wrong, too.

Who is behind all of the trading is also pretty murky. While the companies running the platforms collect personal information of their users in order to verify identities and payments, most people can trade under anonymous pseudonyms online — making it difficult for the public to know who is profiting off many event contracts. In theory, people investing their money may be closely following certain events, but others could just be randomly guessing.

Critics stress that the ease and speed of joining these 24/7 wagers leads to financial losses everyday, particularly harming users who may already struggle with gambling. The space also broadens possibilities for potential insider trading.

Polymarket is one of the largest prediction markets in the world, where its users can fund event contracts through cryptocurrency, debit or credit cards and bank transfers.

Restrictions vary by country, but in the U.S., the reach of these markets has expanded rapidly over recent years, coinciding with shifting policies out of Washington. Former President Joe Biden was aggressive in cracking down on prediction markets and following a 2022 settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Polymarket was barred from operating in the country.

That changed under Trump late last year, when Polymarket announced it would be returning to the U.S. after receiving clearance from the commission. American-based users can now join a platform “waitlist.”

Meanwhile, Polymarket’s top competitor, Kalshi, has been a federally-regulated exchange since 2020. The platform offers similar ways to buy and sell event contracts as Polymarket — and it currently allows event contracts on elections and sports nationwide. Kalshi won court approval just weeks before the 2024 election to let Americans put money on upcoming political races and began to host sports trading about a year ago.

The space is now crowded with other big names. Sports betting giants DraftKings and FanDuel both launched prediction platforms last month. Online broker Robinhood is widening its own offerings. Trump’s social media site Truth Social has also promised to offer an in-platform prediction market through a partnership with Crypto.com — and one of the president’s sons, Donald Trump Jr., holds advisory roles at both Polymarket and Kalshi.

“The train has left the station on these event contracts, they’re not going away,” said Melinda Roth, a visiting associate professor at Washington and Lee University’s School of Law.

Because they’re positioned as selling event contracts, prediction markets are regulated by the CFTC. That means they can avoid state-level restrictions or bans in place for traditional gambling and sports betting today.

“It’s a huge loophole,” said Karl Lockhart, an assistant professor of law at DePaul University who has studied this space. “You just have to comply with one set of regulations, rather than (rules from) each state around the country.”

Sports betting is taking center stage. There are a handful of big states — like California and Texas, for example — where sports betting is still illegal, but people can now wager on games, athlete trades and more through event contracts.

A growing number of states and tribes are suing to stop this. And lawyers expect litigation to eventually reach the U.S. Supreme Court, as added regulations from the Trump administration seem unlikely.

Federal law bars event contracts related to gaming as well as war, terrorism and assassinations, Roth said, which could put some prediction market trades on shaky ground, at least in the U.S. But users might still find ways to buy certain contracts while traveling abroad or connecting to different VPNs.

Whether the CFTC will take any of that on has yet to be seen. But the agency, which did not respond to request for comment, has already taken steps away from enforcement.

Despite overseeing trillions of dollars for the overall U.S. derivatives market, the CFTC is also much smaller than the Securities and Exchange Commission. And at the same time event contracts are growing rapidly on prediction market platforms, there have been additional cuts to the CFTC's workforce and a wave of leadership departures under Trump's second term. Only one of five commissioner slots operating the agency is currently filled.

Still, other lawmakers calling for a stronger crack down on potential insider trading in prediction markets — particularly following suspicion around last week’s Maduro trade on Polymarket. On Friday, Democratic Rep. Ritchie Torres introduced a bill aimed at curbing government employees involvement in politically-related event contracts.

The bill has already gotten support from Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour — who on LinkedIn maintained that insider trading has always been banned on his company's platform but that more needs to be done to crack down on unregulated prediction markets.

Polymarket prediction market website is displayed on a computer screen Friday, Jan. 9, 2026, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Wally Santana)

FILE - In this March 12, 2020, file photo, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro gives a press conference at the Miraflores presidential palace in Caracas, Venezuela. (AP Photo/Matias Delacroix, File)