On the heels of a dry winter, firefighters around the US brace for wildfire risks

PRESCOTT, Ariz. (AP) — From the southwestern U.S. to Minnesota, Iowa and even parts of New Jersey, it seemed that winter never materialized.

Many communities marked their driest winters on record, snowpack was nearly nonexistent in some spots, and vegetation remains tinder dry -- all ingredients for elevated wildfire risks.

More than 1,000 firefighters and fire managers recently participated in an annual wildfire academy in Arizona, where training covered everything from air operations to cutting back brush with chain saws and building fire lines. Academy officials say there is a consensus that crews will be busy as forecasts call for more warm and dry weather, particularly for the Southwest.

The lack of moisture and warm temperatures can combine to increase the rate of spread and intensity of fire, said Roy Hall, the prescribed fire officer for the Arizona Department of Forestry and Fire Management. He says it has been dry in his state for months.

“We would be remiss to not acknowledge that changes how we might see fire behavior come out of the blocks at the beginning and through fire season,” he said.

Experts with NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information reported in early March that total winter precipitation in the U.S. was just shy of 6 inches (15.24 centimeters) — or nearly an inch (2.54 centimeters) below average. The period of December through the end of February — what forecasters consider the meteorological winter — ranked the third driest on record.

Flagstaff, nestled in the mountains south of the Grand Canyon, has long been on the list of quick escapes for desert dwellers looking to build snowmen or go sledding. The northern Arizona city finished the winter period with a 50-inch (1.27 meter) snowfall deficit. A major storm hit the area in mid-March, forcing the closure of Interstate 40 and stranding motorists for hours. It wasn't enough to erase the shortfall.

In New Mexico, there were at least 17 sites that marked either their driest winters on record or tied previous records. Albuquerque set a new low by logging just 0.12 inches (0.30 centimeters) of precipitation over a three-month period.

“The tap just turned off and the drought conditions have been proceeding,” Andrew Mangham, a senior hydrologist with the National Weather Service in Albuquerque, said during a recent call with state and federal drought experts.

Arizona, New Mexico, Texas and other parts the Midwest already have had their share of red flag warnings — when low humidity couples with windy, warm weather to heighten wildfire risks. The danger materialized in mid-March in Oklahoma, where fires destroyed hundreds of homes. Crews in New Jersey and the Carolinas also battled flames amid dry conditions.

In the West, land managers and firefighting forces are concerned that without adequate snowpack in many mountain ranges, there's less moisture to keep fires from ballooning into fast-moving conflagrations.

April 1 typically marks the peak of the snowpack, but forecasters say many areas already are melting out. Strong spring winds that deposit dust onto the snowpack help to speed up the process.

Even southern Alaska is experiencing a snow drought at lower elevations, according to the National Integrated Drought Information System. The Anchorage airport recorded its driest February on record, while large areas in southwest Alaska and low elevations in the south-central part were nearly snow-free as of March 1.

Recent storms brought some moisture to California, pushing snowpack levels there to just shy of average. But most of the southern region is dealing with moderate to extreme drought.

A new wildfire outlook was released Tuesday, showing above-normal significant fire potential from southeast Arizona into New Mexico, West Texas and Oklahoma. There is also above-normal fire potential forecast for southern Alaska along with parts of the southern Appalachians to the coast and down to Florida.

Come June, California will join the list again. In January, deadly fires there torched more urban area than any other fire in that state since at least the mid-1980s.

Seeing flames race through Los Angeles earlier this year prompted municipal leaders throughout the West to host community meetings to raise awareness, including in New Mexico's San Juan County.

The Four Corners region — where Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado and Utah meet — is among those on the radar for high fire potential given the unfavorable conditions. Firefighters in San Juan County responded to 25 bushfires in the first 27 days of March and two more were reported on Friday, said county spokesperson Devin Neeley.

In Arizona, the Phoenix Fire Department have warned the mayor and city councilors about increasing risks. They have a plan for surging department resources to help contain fires before they escalate, particularly in areas where urban development intersects with wildland environments.

In neighboring Scottsdale, Mayor Lisa Borowsky recently floated the idea of creating a volunteer brigade to bolster wildfire prevention, pointing to invasive species and overgrown vegetation within the McDowell Sonoran Preserve that could pose risks. A fire department crew has been clearing and trimming brush along roadways.

Christopher Reed, a fire prevention captain with the Arizona forestry department, said some people think of wildfire as a “macro problem” that involves vast landscapes beyond their suburban borders. He said people should prepare on a micro level, ensuring their own homes are defensible before it's too late.

“We always say Day 1 of firefighting is now,” Reed said.

Students and instructors meet for a morning briefing Tuesday, March 18, 2025, in Prescott, Ariz. (AP Photo/ Ty O'Neil)

Students cut and move brush as part of a chainsaw instruction class on Tuesday, March 18, 2025, in Prescott, Ariz. (AP Photo/ Ty O'Neil)

Students listen to an instructor during a chainsaw use class on Tuesday, March 18, 2025, in Prescott, Ariz. (AP Photo/ Ty O'Neil)

An instructor shows students how to sharpen a chainsaw on Tuesday, March 18, 2025, in Prescott, Ariz. (AP Photo/ Ty O'Neil)

An instructor explains the plan for a chainsaw class on Tuesday, March 18, 2025, in Prescott, Ariz. (AP Photo/ Ty O'Neil)

Vehicles move South on U.S. 1 highway as smoke from a brush fire enteres the sky near Homestead, Fla., on Friday March 21, 2025. (AP Photo/Jaqueline Larma)

In this March 23, 2025, photo released by the U.S. National Guard shows a UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter from the 1-111th General Support Aviation Battalion, 59th Aviation Troop Command, McEntire Joint National Guard Base in Eastover executing its fire suppression mission in support of the South Carolina Forestry Commission at Persimmon Ridge Fire near Greenville, S.C. (Sgt. 1st Class Roberto Di Giovine/U.S. Army National Guard via AP)

Students learn how to document wildland fire origin scenes on Monday, March 17, 2025, in Prescott, Ariz. (AP Photo/ Ty O'Neil)

Firefighter John Ward works to control the Black Cove Fire Wednesday, March 26, 2025, in Saluda, N.C. (AP Photo/Allison Joyce)

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran wants to negotiate with Washington after his threat to strike the Islamic Republic over its bloody crackdown on protesters, a move coming as activists said Monday the death toll in the nationwide demonstrations rose to at least 544.

Iran had no immediate reaction to the news, which came after the foreign minister of Oman — long an interlocutor between Washington and Tehran — traveled to Iran this weekend. It also remains unclear just what Iran could promise, particularly as Trump has set strict demands over its nuclear program and its ballistic missile arsenal, which Tehran insists is crucial for its national defense.

Meanwhile Monday, Iran called for pro-government demonstrators to head to the streets in support of the theocracy, a show of force after days of protests directly challenging the rule of 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iranian state television aired chants from the crowd, who shouted “Death to America!” and “Death to Israel!”

Trump and his national security team have been weighing a range of potential responses against Iran including cyberattacks and direct strikes by the U.S. or Israel, according to two people familiar with internal White House discussions who were not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity.

“The military is looking at it, and we’re looking at some very strong options,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One on Sunday night. Asked about Iran’s threats of retaliation, he said: “If they do that, we will hit them at levels that they’ve never been hit before.”

Trump said that his administration was in talks to set up a meeting with Tehran, but cautioned that he may have to act first as reports of the death toll in Iran mount and the government continues to arrest protesters.

“I think they’re tired of being beat up by the United States,” Trump said. “Iran wants to negotiate.”

He added: “The meeting is being set up, but we may have to act because of what’s happening before the meeting. But a meeting is being set up. Iran called, they want to negotiate.”

Iran through country's parliamentary speaker warned Sunday that the U.S. military and Israel would be “legitimate targets” if America uses force to protect demonstrators.

More than 10,600 people also have been detained over the two weeks of protests, said the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency, which has been accurate in previous unrest in recent years and gave the death toll. It relies on supporters in Iran crosschecking information. It said 496 of the dead were protesters and 48 were with security forces.

With the internet down in Iran and phone lines cut off, gauging the demonstrations from abroad has grown more difficult. The Associated Press has been unable to independently assess the toll. Iran’s government has not offered overall casualty figures.

Those abroad fear the information blackout is emboldening hard-liners within Iran’s security services to launch a bloody crackdown. Protesters flooded the streets in the country’s capital and its second-largest city on Saturday night into Sunday morning. Online videos purported to show more demonstrations Sunday night into Monday, with a Tehran official acknowledging them in state media.

In Tehran, a witness told the AP that the streets of the capital empty at the sunset call to prayers each night. By the Isha, or nighttime prayer, the streets are deserted.

Part of that stems from the fear of getting caught in the crackdown. Police sent the public a text message that warned: “Given the presence of terrorist groups and armed individuals in some gatherings last night and their plans to cause death, and the firm decision to not tolerate any appeasement and to deal decisively with the rioters, families are strongly advised to take care of their youth and teenagers.”

Another text, which claimed to come from the intelligence arm of the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, also directly warned people not to take part in demonstrations.

“Dear parents, in view of the enemy’s plan to increase the level of naked violence and the decision to kill people, ... refrain from being on the streets and gathering in places involved in violence, and inform your children about the consequences of cooperating with terrorist mercenaries, which is an example of treason against the country,” the text warned.

The witness spoke to the AP on condition of anonymity due to the ongoing crackdown.

The demonstrations began Dec. 28 over the collapse of the Iranian rial currency, which trades at over 1.4 million to $1, as the country’s economy is squeezed by international sanctions in part levied over its nuclear program. The protests intensified and grew into calls directly challenging Iran’s theocracy.

Nikhinson reported from aboard Air Force One.

In this frame grab from video obtained by the AP outside Iran, a masked demonstrator holds a picture of Iran's Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi during a protest in Tehran, Iran, Friday, January. 9, 2026. (UGC via AP)

In this frame grab from footage circulating on social media from Iran shows protesters taking to the streets despite an intensifying crackdown as the Islamic Republic remains cut off from the rest of the world in Tehran, Iran, Friday, Jan. 9, 2026.(UGC via AP)

In this frame grab from footage circulating on social media from Iran showed protesters once again taking to the streets of Tehran despite an intensifying crackdown as the Islamic Republic remains cut off from the rest of the world in Tehran, Iran, Saturday Jan. 10, 2026. (UGC via AP)