Once called the world's most popular politician, Brazil’s Lula faces plummeting approval

RIO DE JANEIRO (AP) — Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was once called the most popular politician on Earth by then-U.S. President Barack Obama. Those times are long gone.

Halfway through his latest four-year term, Lula's approval rating has plunged down to levels never before seen in any of this three administrations. Brazil's economy is growing and its unemployment is decreasing, but people are complaining about higher food prices and crime.

Lula’s approval rating has dropped to 24%, according to the country’s most prominent pollster Datafolha in its latest February poll, which interviewed 2,007 people across Brazil with a margin of error of 2 percentage points. That is an all-time low across his time in office from 2003 to 2010, and since he took office again in 2023. The previous record was 28% in 2005. Surveys by other firms also show a rise in discontent.

And in an apparent attempt to claw back support, the government on Thursday is hosting an event in the capital, Brasilia.

“The objective is to present the achievements of the Federal Government in the first two years,” the presidential palace said in a statement this week.

Lula’s difficulties come against a Brazilian political landscape in upheaval, with his predecessor and bitter rival former President Jair Bolsonaro due to stand trial on charges that the right-wing politician attempted a coup.

The plunge in support also comes as Lula, 79, weighs whether to run for re-election next year.

For many observers, the increase in the cost of food is a top reason for Lula’s fall in popularity. Food and drinks were nearly 8% more expensive in 2024 compared to the previous year, according to Brazil's national statistics agency.

“Food inflation has a direct impact on people’s lives,” said Carla Beni, a professor of economics at Getulio Vargas Foundation, pointing especially to the rise of the cost of meat, a staple of Brazilians' diet.

Beni said prices have soared due to the impact of climate change on crops and the strengthening of the dollar against the real.

An uptick in food prices particularly affects the poor – Lula’s historical support base. A poll by private firm Genial/Quaest released Wednesday showed a surge in disapproval among women, Black people and in Brazil’s poorer northeast. In six months, the percentage of respondents who disapprove of Lula's administration in the northeast jumped from 26% to 46%. And more women have a poor opinion of the government than they do a positive one.

“Not only are things expensive, but we’re also living in a dangerous country,” said Anderson Vianna, 45, a sales representative who lives Rio de Janeiro's low-income northern zone. “If you have your phone in hand, you can’t relax,” added the man who voted for Lula in 2002, 2006 and 2022.

To reign in food inflation, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin announced on March 6 that the government would reduce import taxes to zero on a series of products, including meat and coffee.

But the measure does not appear to have turned the public’s perception of the government. João Feres, a political scientist at Rio de Janeiro State University, said Lula’s government has a myriad of public policies but “the problem is communicating the results of these policies.”

A blow to Lula came in January, when his government said it would increase oversight of financial transactions, including Brazil’s popular instant payment system PIX.

That sparked a flurry of fake news pushed by far-right politicians close to Bolsonaro, who said the government planned to impose a new tax on PIX payments. The administration denied the accusation, but ended up backtracking on the step.

“That was the first point that really damaged Lula’s image,” said Paulo Feldmann, an economist at the University of Sao Paulo.

Crime and violence are other top concerns.

“Since the end of restriction of movement due to the COVID-19 pandemic, it's in first place” in the ranking of Brazilians' worries, said Marcos Calliari, the country's director of pollster IPSOS.

Over the weekend, the video of an influencer inadvertently filming the moment her phone was stolen at the Lollapalooza festival in Sao Paulo went viral. Almost one in 10 Brazilians had their phone stolen between July 2023 and June 2024, according to Datafolha.

Lula has sharpened his tone against thieves in recent weeks. “We will not allow criminals to take over our country,” he said on March 19.

The justice ministry is planning to send a bill to Congress that would increase the maximum sentence for receiving and benefiting from stolen cellphones from eight to up to 12 years, it said in a statement on Friday.

Lula’s government is also preparing a wider bill on security.

To woo back voters, the government is also counting on a proposal to cut taxation for the poor. Mid-March, the administration sent a bill to Congress that seeks to exempt individuals earning up to 5000 reais (around $880) per month from income tax, up from around 2,300 reais currently.

If Congress approves the bill, observers say it could be a big win for Lula, though it's uncertain whether it will restore his popularity.

With Lula struggling in the polls and Bolsonaro barred from running until 2030, the next election is much more unpredictable than the previous one, Beni said.

Vianna, the sales representative, said he is disappointed and is not sure he would vote for Lula again. “We need a renewal.”

FILE - Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva attends a summit at the Planalto presidential palace in Brasilia, Brazil, Feb. 19, 2025. (AP Photo/Eraldo Peres, File)

FILE - Police ride past residents in a bulldozer they use to clear street barricades during a security operation against organized crime in the Mare Complex favela of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Oct. 9, 2023. (AP Photo/Silvia Izquierdo, File)

FILE - Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, left, addresses members of the judiciary, parliament and state governors, regarding the implementation of the Unified Public Security System to combat organized crime, at the Planalto Presidential Palace, in Brasilia, Brazil, Oct. 31, 2024. (AP Photo/Eraldo Peres, File)

FILE - A boy receives food donated by a social project at the Turano favela, in Rio de Janeiro, June 17, 2024. (AP Photo/Silvia Izquierdo, File)

FILE - Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva leans over to talk with first lady Rosangela da Silva, during the opening event of the Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty meeting, on the sidelines of the G20 Ministerial Meetings in Rio de Janeiro, July 24, 2024. (AP Photo/Bruna Prado, File)

FILE - Former President Jair Bolsonaro talks to reporters after arriving at the airport in Brasilia, Brazil, June 30, 2023. Bolsonaro was barred from running for office again until 2030 after a panel of judges concluded that he abused his power and cast unfounded doubts on the country's electronic voting system. (AP Photo/Eraldo Peres, File)

FILE - Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and first lady Rosangela da Silva attend a pro-democracy event marking two years since the alleged coup attempt when supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro invaded government buildings and called for military intervention, in Brasilia, Brazil, Jan. 8, 2025. (AP Photo/Luis Nova, File)

FILE - U.S. President Barack Obama, left, and Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, react during the G8 Summit in L'Aquila, Italy, July 9, 2009. (AP Photo/Haraz N. Ghanbari, File)

FILE - Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva waves at the start of the Independence Day military parade, in Brasilia, Brazil, Sept. 7, 2024. (AP Photo/Eraldo Peres, File)

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump addressed the nation Wednesday night, offering an update on the war in Iran during his first prime-time speech since launching strikes alongside Israel more than a month ago.

With the speech, Trump was getting a wide audience to articulate clear objectives for the war that could attempt to reconcile weeks of changing goals and often contradictory messages about whether he’s winding down or ready to escalate military operations — even as Iran kept up its attacks on Israel and Persian Gulf neighbors and airstrikes pounded Tehran.

“In these past four weeks our armed forces have delivered swift, decisive, overwhelming victories on the battlefield,” Trump said.

It comes amid rising oil prices, volatile financial markets and polling showing many Americans feel the U.S. military has gone too far in Iran — even as more American troops move into the region for a possible ground offensive. Trump opted not to deliver such an address closer to when the U.S. and Israel first launched attacks, and questions now remain about whether it is now too late for what he says to break through.

A White House official, who was not authorized to speak publicly ahead of the address and spoke on condition of anonymity, said the president will talk about U.S. progress on achieving his goals in Iran and will reiterate his estimated timeline for concluding operations within two to three weeks.

Just before Trump began speaking, the United Arab Emirates warned the public about a missile threat from Iran. A series of blasts could then be heard in Dubai as air defenses worked to intercept the Iranian barrage.

The president, in comments during a Easter lunch on Wednesday afternoon, said of Iran: “We could just take their oil. But you know, I’m not sure that the people in our country have the patience to do that, which is unfortunate.”

“Yeah, they want to see it end. If we stayed there, I prefer just to take the oil,” Trump said. “We could do it so easily. I would prefer that. But people in the country sort of say: ‘Just win. You’re winning so big. Just win. Come home.’ And I’m OK with that, too, because we have a lot of oil between Venezuela and our oil.”

The media was not permitted to watch the president’s remarks at the lunch, but the White House uploaded video of the speech online before taking it down. The White House did not return requests for comment from The Associated Press on the video and why it was taken down.

In a social media post earlier Wednesday, Trump maintained a belligerent tone, demanding that Iran stop blocking the Strait of Hormuz — the waterway vital to global oil supplies — or the U.S. would bomb the Islamic Republic “back to the Stone Ages.” The president has also said the U.S. “will not have anything to do with” ensuring the security of ships passing through Hormuz, an apparent backtrack from a previous threat to attack Iran’s power grid if it didn’t open the strait by April 6.

In the same Easter lunch, the president reiterated some of his complaints about NATO allies for their reluctance to get involved in securing the Strait of Hormuz while suggesting that China, Japan and South Korea could also step up to reopen the waterway.

“Let South Korea, you know, we only have 45,000 soldiers in harm’s way over there, right next to a nuclear force -- let South Korea do it,” Trump said of efforts to reopen the strait. “Let Japan do it. They get 90% of their oil from the strait. Let China do it.”

In another morning social media post, Trump wrote that “Iran’s New Regime President” wanted a ceasefire. It wasn’t clear to whom the U.S. president was referring since Iran still has the same president. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, called Trump’s claim “false and baseless,” according to a report on Iranian state television.

Speaking earlier to Al Jazeera, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi signaled Tehran’s willingness to keep fighting. “You cannot speak to the people of Iran in the language of threats and deadlines,” he said. “We do not set any deadline for defending ourselves.”

Hours before Trump’s address, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian posted a lengthy letter in English on his X account appealing to U.S. citizens and stressing that his country had pursued negotiations before the U.S. withdrew from that path. “Exactly which of the American people’s interests are truly being served by this war?” he wrote.

Since the war began on Feb. 28, Trump has offered shifting objectives and repeatedly has said it could be over soon while also threatening to widen the conflict. Thousands of additional U.S. troops are currently heading to the Middle East, and speculation abounds about why.

Trump has also threatened to attack Iran’s Kharg Island oil export hub. And the U.S. could decide to send in military forces to secure Iran’s uranium stockpile — a complex and risky operation, fraught with radiation and chemical dangers, experts and former government officials say.

Adding to the confusion is what role Israel — which has been bombing Iran alongside the U.S. — might play in any of these scenarios.

Trump has been under growing pressure to end the war that has been pushing up the cost of gasoline, food and other goods. The price of Brent crude, the international standard, is up more than 40% since the start of the war.

The U.S. has presented Iran with a 15-point plan aimed at bringing about a ceasefire, including a demand for the strait to be reopened and for its nuclear program to be rolled back.

Iran insists its nuclear program is peaceful. And in a report last week by Iranian state TV's English-language broadcaster, an anonymous official was quoted as saying Iran had its own demands to end the fighting, including retaining sovereignty over the strait.

In the interview with Al Jazeera, Araghchi acknowledged receiving direct messages from U.S. Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff. He insisted, however, that there were no direct negotiations and said Iran has no faith that talks with the U.S. could yield any results, saying “the trust level is at zero.”

He warned against any U.S. attempt to launch a ground offensive, saying “we are waiting for them.”

In a deal ostensibly to give diplomacy a chance, U.S. officials have given “clear assurances” that Araghchi and Iran's Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf won't be targeted, according to three officials who spoke on condition of anonymity because they're not authorized to speak publicly about the matter.

Gambrell reported from Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Rising reported from Bangkok. Associated Press writers Giovanna Dell’Orto in Miami, Farnoush Amiri in New York and Samy Magdy in Cairo contributed to this report.

President Donald Trump speaks about the Iran war from the Cross Hall of the White House on Wednesday, April 1, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon, Pool)

A rainbow forms over the White House on Wednesday, April 1, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

A young girl is comforted by her father and Israeli soldiers as they take cover in a bomb shelter during air raid sirens warning of incoming Iranian missile strikes in Bnei Brak, Israel, Wednesday, April 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Oded Balilty)

People inspect the site of an Israeli strike amid debris and damaged vehicles in Beirut, Lebanon, Wednesday, April 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar)

A man feeds stray cats in Tehran, Iran, Tuesday, March 31, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

The Indian flagged LPG carrier Jag Vasant transporting liquefied petroleum gas, is seen at the Mumbai Port in Mumbai, India, after it arrived clearing the Strait of Hormuz, Wednesday, April 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Rafiq Maqbool)

Firefighters and rescue workers work at the site of Israeli airstrikes, in Beirut, Lebanon, Wednesday, April 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)

A firefighter extinguishes a car at the site of Israeli airstrikes, in Beirut, Lebanon, Wednesday, April 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)

Israel's rescue teams and residents take shelter as sirens sounds next to a site struck by an Iranian missile in Bnei Brak, Wednesday, April 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Oded Balilty)

A police vehicle is seen through a shattered windshield at the site of an Israeli strike in Beirut, Lebanon, Wednesday, April 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar)

Two men ride scooters past charred debris at the site of an Israeli strike in Beirut, Lebanon, Wednesday, April 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar)