Surprise open governor's seat in Iowa signals competitive GOP primary, glimmer of hope for Democrats

DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) — Iowa looked a lot different in 2010, when Kim Reynolds was first elected to statewide office.

Reynolds was the Republican nominee for lieutenant governor on the ticket alongside former Gov. Terry Branstad. Barack Obama was president, supported by a majority of Iowa voters who had helped send the Illinois Democrat to the White House just two years earlier.

Iowa’s federal delegation was split politically. Democrats held majorities in the Iowa House and Senate.

And Donald Trump hosted “The Apprentice."

Reynolds' surprise announcement last week that she would not seek a third term as governor after nearly a decade in the office set Des Moines abuzz with who might jump in to a newly wide open primary race, the first for Iowa Republicans since 2010.

It also left some Democrats feeling a glimmer of hope that they could make inroads after years of total Republican control. That likely would require substantial backlash against the Trump administration, but that's more likely in a midterm election.

A strong candidate would help, as would a deep campaign chest. State Auditor Rob Sand, the only elected Democrat statewide, has not announced a run for governor but has announced $8 million in campaign contributions, most of which came from his or his extended family's pockets.

Meanwhile, at least a half dozen Iowa Republicans have suggested they are thinking about their political futures in the week since Reynolds' announcement. That includes Attorney General Brenna Bird; Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig; House Speaker Pat Grassley, grandson of the state's senior U.S. senator; and Rep. Bobby Kaufmann, son of the state GOP's chairman.

Reynolds became Iowa's first female governor after Trump left reality television behind, ran for the presidency in 2016 and won, then appointed Branstad as U.S. ambassador to China the following year. She won election to a full term in 2018 and reelection in 2022 and has presided over a sharp rightward political shift in Iowa, where nearly every statewide and federal officeholder is Republican and both statehouse chambers hold large GOP majorities.

She’s the first eligible incumbent governor in the U.S. to opt out of a 2026 race, leaving Iowa suddenly headed toward a political shake-up in a midterm election year.

“You’d much rather stage a campaign with a proven, seasoned, winning and winsome candidate. And Gov. Reynolds, had she run, would have punched all those cards,” said David Oman, who served as chief of staff to Republican Govs. Robert Ray and Branstad. “Now, we have to reload.”

But in a state without term limits on the office, where only five governors have served over the last five decades, Reynolds' decision provides a rare opportunity.

“In this state, somebody gets elected, they serve three to four terms. You can wait, and your shelf life is gone,” Oman said. “If your ambition is to serve as governor and you learned today that that office is opening up … this is your time to act.”

In her announcement April 11, Reynolds said there's a foundation of “strong conservative leadership” that will carry the state forward. It's a nod to a sizable bench of Republican leaders — many of whom she worked to elect — in other statewide offices, in Congress and in the statehouse.

Some have waited years to try for the top of the ticket.

“It’s been 16 years since we’ve had an open seat,” Reynolds acknowledged Monday in an interview with Iowa radio host Jeff Angelo. “I think that’s a healthy process for people to really lay out their ideas and their vision for where they’re gonna take this great state moving forward.”

That’ll occur for the first time in a governor’s race in Iowa since Trump secured his grip on the Republican Party, including in Iowa, where he decisively won the 2024 presidential GOP caucuses and began his return to the White House.

It leaves many wondering whether — and when — Trump might weigh in.

Trump has endorsed dozens of gubernatorial candidates before their primaries since he first took office in 2017, according to an analysis by The Associated Press. Of those, only a handful did not advance to the general election.

Of the 36 primary winners, 24 won their general election, four lost to sitting Democratic governors and eight lost open seats.

How a primary, with or without a Trump endorsement, shakes out could impact candidates down the ballot, especially if sitting federal or state lawmakers choose to run in the primary for governor instead of their current office, leaving more open seats in the general election.

The Democrats’ campaign arm announced last week that it was targeting three of Iowa’s four congressional seats, two of which are considered among the most competitive races in the country.

Now, too, the Democratic Governors Association says there is a “real chance for Democrats to win in 2026” without an incumbent governor in the mix.

“When there are big open Republican primaries, they tend to elect extreme and flawed candidates that struggle in general elections,” communications director Sam Newton said. “We’re keeping a close eye on it.”

Maya Sweedler contributed from Washington.

FILE - State Rep. Bobby Kaufmann, R-Wilton, left, walks through the Iowa Senate chamber, Feb. 24, 2021, at the Statehouse in Des Moines, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall, File)

FILE - Iowa House Speaker Pat Grassley speaks during the opening day of the Iowa Legislature, Jan. 9, 2023, in Des Moines, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall, File)

FILE - Iowa Attorney General Brenna Bird speaks at a press conference, May 13, 2024, in New York. (AP Photo/Stefan Jeremiah, File)

FILE - Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig speaks with local farmers on the set of the Barn Talk podcast on the Whisler family farm near Washington, Iowa, Friday, Nov. 1, 2024. (Nick Rohlman/The Gazette via AP, File)

FILE - Iowa State Auditor Rob Sand talks with residents, June 28, 2023, in Audubon, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall, File)

FILE - Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds arrives on stage with Republican presidential candidate Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis before he speaks to supporters during a caucus night party, Jan. 15, 2024, in West Des Moines, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall, File)

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. (AP) — Josh Allen took a pounding, doled out punishment and delivered Buffalo its first road playoff victory in more than three decades, 27-24 over Jacksonville in the AFC's wild-card opener Sunday.

With linebacker Devin Lloyd bearing down on him, Allen found Brandin Cooks for 36 yards just before the two-minute warning and then capped the go-ahead drive with a 1-yard touchdown run in which Jacksonville let him score.

On the play before his score, Allen gained 10 yards on a sneak, refusing to go down while being pushed and pulled to the goal line.

“Just trusting everybody on the field,” Allen said. "Great win, great team win. All we’ve got to do is play our game, find a way to win a football game. We’re on to the next.”

Buffalo will play at Denver or New England next week, a chance to build a road winning streak after a decades-long skid.

“We got to go do it again. We got to go do it again," Allen said.

Focused on getting rid of the ball quickly and negating Jacksonville’s pass rush most of the game, Allen completed 28 of 35 passes for 273 yards and a touchdown. He ran for two scores, was sacked just once and played turnover-free football. Khalil Shakir caught 12 passes for 82 yards for the Bills.

It was necessary considering NFL rushing leader James Cook was mostly bottled up, finishing with 46 yards on 15 carries.

“You know, we’re going to play for each other, we’re gonna fight to the very last second, and you saw that here today,” Allen said.

Buffalo (13-5) intercepted a deflected pass on Jacksonville’s final drive to seal the victory.

The Bills had been 0-5 on the road in the playoffs under coach Sean McDermott, starting with a 10-3 loss at Jacksonville in the 2017 wild-card round. The Bills had dropped eight consecutive postseason games on the road since winning at Miami in the 1992 AFC championship game. It had been the NFL’s second-longest, active road playoff skid.

The Jaguars (13-5) took the lead with 4:03 to play on Trevor Lawrence’s third TD pass of the game, but they couldn’t hold it against the NFL’s reigning MVP.

Lawrence completed 18 of 30 passes for 207 yards, with TD throws to Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington and Travis Etienne. Washington finished with seven catches for 107 yards.

Coach Liam Coen surely will get questioned for not running the ball more against one of the league’s most porous run defenses.

Etienne and rookie Bhayshul Tuten combined for 118 yards on just 14 carries.

Allen, meanwhile, showed his toughness. He twice ended up in the medical tent in the first half but didn’t miss a snap. He got hammered in the head twice during one play, with Josh Hines-Allen landing on the side of his helmet right after teammate Travon Walker tackled him to the ground. His left ear appeared to be bleeding, but he got checked out and returned.

Allen later slammed his right hand into the helmet of right guard O’Cyrus Torrence after releasing the ball. And he completed the injury trifecta when his left leg got bent awkwardly on his 2-yard TD run.

Allen stayed on the ground following that last hit from Hines-Allen and gingerly walked to the sideline and back into the tent. But, as usual, the 6-foot-5, 237-pounder powered through and was back on the field making plays.

The Jaguars had a chance to tie the game at the end of the first half, but Cam Little was wide left on a 54-yarder. The miss ended a streak of 20 consecutive field goals made for the second-year pro from Arkansas.

Little kicked the two longest field goals in NFL history this season — a 68-yarder at Las Vegas and a 67-yarder last week against Tennessee.

He got a chance after the Bills were flagged for being offside following a 34-yard completion that got Little into range.

Bills S Jordan Poyer (hamstring) was ruled out to start the third quarter, a huge loss for an already banged-up secondary. It left the Bills to play with rookie Jordan Hancock and second-year Cole Bishop. WR Gabe Davis, who played for Jacksonville last season, injured his left knee in the fourth and was carted to the locker room and ruled out. WR Tyrell Shavers injured his left knee during a punt return but returned in the second half.

Jaguars RG Patrick Mekari (back) left in the third. LG Ezra Cleveland also was banged up and alternating plays with rookie Wyatt Milum. WR Parker Washington was evaluated for a concussion in the first half and cleared to return.

The Bills will play at Denver or New England next weekend.

The Jaguars will turn their attention toward improving a roster that lacked enough difference-makers on both sides of the ball.

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Buffalo Bills' Ray Davis, bottom right, fumbles a kickoff return from the Jacksonville Jaguars as teammate Baylon Spector (54) and Jacksonville Jaguars' Devin Lloyd (0) try to recover the ball during the first half of an NFL wild-card playoff football game Sunday, Jan. 11, 2026, in Jacksonville, Fla. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) is tackled by Jacksonville Jaguars defensive end Josh Hines-Allen (41) during the second half of an NFL wild-card playoff football game Sunday, Jan. 11, 2026, in Jacksonville, Fla. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)

Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Parker Washington (11) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Buffalo Bills during the second half of an NFL wild-card playoff football game Sunday, Jan. 11, 2026, in Jacksonville, Fla. (AP Photo/John Raoux)

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen gets up after collecting a first down near the Jacksonville Jaguars end zone later in the second half of an NFL wild-card playoff football game Sunday, Jan. 11, 2026, in Jacksonville, Fla. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) pushes in for a first down as Jacksonville Jaguars defensive tackle Arik Armstead (91) tries to stop him during the second half of an NFL wild-card playoff football game Sunday, Jan. 11, 2026, in Jacksonville, Fla. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)