Complete trade decoupling between China and the United States is less likely due to the U.S. reliance on Chinese products, said Justin Yifu Lin, honorary dean of the National School of Development at Peking University, on Monday, emphasizing that China will continue to play a crucial role in the global economic landscape.
Speaking at an event hosted by the China Public Diplomacy Association in Beijing, Lin underscored the mutually beneficial nature of trade between China and the United States.
Lin criticized the U.S. for its tariff bullying, emphasizing the importance of a rules-based international order and the need to resolve trade disputes within the framework of the World Trade Organization.
"No possibility can be ruled out regarding the decoupling of China and the United States, but I believe complete de-coupling is less likely, as both the American people and businesses rely on the Chinese [products]," Lin said.
According to Lin, China's per capita GDP is expected to reach half that of the United States by 2049, making China's overall economy twice the size of the U.S. economy.
This shift could bring greater trade benefits to the United States, and by that time, access to the Chinese market will be critical for the survival of U.S. high-tech enterprises, said Lin.
"If China's per capita GDP is 50 percent that of the United States, then the size of China's economy will be twice that of the United States. The material resources that China can mobilize, and China's market will also be twice as large as those of the United States. For high-tech enterprises, having access to the Chinese market will become a matter of life and death," he said.
Lin also highlighted China's competitive advantages, such as its abundant human resources, vast domestic market, and strong industrial supporting capacity, all of which will continue to fuel the country's economic growth.
"As I mentioned earlier, if China maintains a growth rate of 5 percent or slightly higher before 2035, and sustains a rate between 3 percent and 4 percent through 2050, its contribution to global growth will remain similar to the post-2008 period, with China contributing around 30 percent to global growth each year. China will continue to be the engine of world economic growth and a key source of growth momentum," Lin said.
Complete China-US trade decoupling less likely, China to remain key player in global economy: economist
