It might be Carney vs. Poilievre to lead Canada, but Trump is unofficially on the ballot

TORONTO (AP) — Donald Trump might as well be on the ballot when Canadians vote for a new government.

The U.S. president's trade war and threats to make Canada the 51st state have infuriated Canadians and led to a surge in nationalism that has helped the Liberal Party flip the narrative heading into Monday's parliamentary election, at least in opinion polls.

“Trump is the campaign,” former Quebec Premier Jean Charest said. “The ballot question is who is the person we are going to choose to face Trump. Everything has changed.”

Foreign policy hasn't affected a Canadian election this much since 1988, when, ironically, free trade with the United States dominated the political discourse.

Prime Minister Mark Carney, the Liberal leader who was sworn in on March 14 following Justin Trudeau’s resignation, led in the polls heading into Monday, marking a dramatic turnaround for a party that seemed destined for a crushing defeat until Trump started launching broadsides at Canada’s economy and sovereignty.

"We are in a crisis. President Trump is threatening Canada, he’s threatening our companies, he’s threatening our workers, he’s threatening the savings of our retirees,” Carney said Tuesday. “This threat is not only an economic threat, it is an existential threat.”

Until a few months ago, Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre was seen as a shoo-in to become the next prime minister by shepherding his opposition faction back into power for the first time in a decade.

Charest, a moderate who led Canada's French-speaking province from 2003-2012, said if Trump wants to help his ideological allies abroad, he needs to tone down the bluster.

"At what point are the Trump folks going to think this thing through and measure what are the consequences?” Charest said.

“In the White House, they should sit down and think about the effect Trump has in the world," he added.

Carney has accused Trump of severing the close relationship that Canada and the U.S. long enjoyed.

Poilievre, meanwhile, would be “very much in sync” with the “new direction in America,” said Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, a Conservative ally.

As such, Poilievre has offered a more muted response to Trump's rhetoric and economic maneuvering, imploring Canadians to deny the Liberals a fourth-straight term after what he described as “a lost Liberal decade.”

Trump has threatened to slap steep tariffs on Canadian goods, and both Carney and Poilievre said that, if elected, they would accelerate renegotiations of the countries' free trade deal in an effort to end the uncertainty hurting both of their economies.

Carney plans to diversify Canada's exports and is reviewing the remaining purchase order of U.S. F-35 fighter jets to see if there are other options “given the changing environment.” Carney visited Paris and London, not Washington, for his first trips as prime minister.

But almost 80% of Canada's exports go to the U.S.

“Let's be honest, if Canada does a remarkable job — a remarkable job — of diversifying trade, what is that going to look like?" said former Foreign Minister John Baird, noting that even shifting 3% - 5% over five years would be quite an achievement.

“Let’s keep our eye on the main ball. They are 78% of our customers so we need to tackle that challenge," said Baird, a Conservative who works as a senior adviser at a law firm.

In a mid-January poll by Nanos, Liberals trailed the Conservative Party by 47% to 20%. In the latest Nanos poll, which was conducted during a three-day period that ended April 26, the Liberals led by 4 percentage points nationally and 6 points in Ontario, Canada’s most populous province, which has 122 of the 343 seats in Parliament. The January poll had a margin of error 3.1 points, while the latest poll had a 2.7-point error margin.

FILE - People rally in response to U.S. President Donald Trump's threats to Canadian sovereignty on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, March 9, 2025. (Justin Tang/The Canadian Press via AP File)

FILE - Former Quebec Premier Jean Charest speaks to reporters during a Cabinet retreat in Montebello, Quebec, Jan. 21, 2025. (Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press via AP File)

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre holds a Canada First Rally For Change, in Vaughan, Ontario, April 22, 2025. (Chris Young/The Canadian Press via AP File)

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre arrives at Kelowna International Airport, in Kelowna, B.C., April 4, 2025. (Darryl Dyck/The Canadian Press via AP File)

FILE - Box trucks cross the Ambassador Bridge entering the United States from Canada, as seen from Detroit, Feb. 3, 2025. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

FILE - Unifor auto workers stand behind Prime Minister Mark Carney as he speaks during a campaign stop in Windsor, Ont., March 26, 2025, near the Ambassador Bridge that connects Canada with the United States. (Frank Gunn /The Canadian Press via AP File)

FILE - Prime Minister Mark Carney takes questions from the media in Saanichton, British Columbia, Canada, April 7, 2025. (Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press via AP File)

FILE - People hold a large Canadian flag during a rally in response to U.S. President Donald Trump's threats to Canadian sovereignty, on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, March 9, 2025. (Justin Tang/The Canadian Press via AP File)

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran wants to negotiate with Washington after his threat to strike the Islamic Republic over its bloody crackdown on protesters, a move coming as activists said Monday the death toll in the nationwide demonstrations rose to at least 544.

Iran had no immediate reaction to the news, which came after the foreign minister of Oman — long an interlocutor between Washington and Tehran — traveled to Iran this weekend. It also remains unclear just what Iran could promise, particularly as Trump has set strict demands over its nuclear program and its ballistic missile arsenal, which Tehran insists is crucial for its national defense.

Meanwhile Monday, Iran called for pro-government demonstrators to head to the streets in support of the theocracy, a show of force after days of protests directly challenging the rule of 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iranian state television aired chants from the crowd, who shouted “Death to America!” and “Death to Israel!”

Trump and his national security team have been weighing a range of potential responses against Iran including cyberattacks and direct strikes by the U.S. or Israel, according to two people familiar with internal White House discussions who were not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity.

“The military is looking at it, and we’re looking at some very strong options,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One on Sunday night. Asked about Iran’s threats of retaliation, he said: “If they do that, we will hit them at levels that they’ve never been hit before.”

Trump said that his administration was in talks to set up a meeting with Tehran, but cautioned that he may have to act first as reports of the death toll in Iran mount and the government continues to arrest protesters.

“I think they’re tired of being beat up by the United States,” Trump said. “Iran wants to negotiate.”

He added: “The meeting is being set up, but we may have to act because of what’s happening before the meeting. But a meeting is being set up. Iran called, they want to negotiate.”

Iran through country's parliamentary speaker warned Sunday that the U.S. military and Israel would be “legitimate targets” if America uses force to protect demonstrators.

More than 10,600 people also have been detained over the two weeks of protests, said the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency, which has been accurate in previous unrest in recent years and gave the death toll. It relies on supporters in Iran crosschecking information. It said 496 of the dead were protesters and 48 were with security forces.

With the internet down in Iran and phone lines cut off, gauging the demonstrations from abroad has grown more difficult. The Associated Press has been unable to independently assess the toll. Iran’s government has not offered overall casualty figures.

Those abroad fear the information blackout is emboldening hard-liners within Iran’s security services to launch a bloody crackdown. Protesters flooded the streets in the country’s capital and its second-largest city on Saturday night into Sunday morning. Online videos purported to show more demonstrations Sunday night into Monday, with a Tehran official acknowledging them in state media.

In Tehran, a witness told the AP that the streets of the capital empty at the sunset call to prayers each night. By the Isha, or nighttime prayer, the streets are deserted.

Part of that stems from the fear of getting caught in the crackdown. Police sent the public a text message that warned: “Given the presence of terrorist groups and armed individuals in some gatherings last night and their plans to cause death, and the firm decision to not tolerate any appeasement and to deal decisively with the rioters, families are strongly advised to take care of their youth and teenagers.”

Another text, which claimed to come from the intelligence arm of the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, also directly warned people not to take part in demonstrations.

“Dear parents, in view of the enemy’s plan to increase the level of naked violence and the decision to kill people, ... refrain from being on the streets and gathering in places involved in violence, and inform your children about the consequences of cooperating with terrorist mercenaries, which is an example of treason against the country,” the text warned.

The witness spoke to the AP on condition of anonymity due to the ongoing crackdown.

The demonstrations began Dec. 28 over the collapse of the Iranian rial currency, which trades at over 1.4 million to $1, as the country’s economy is squeezed by international sanctions in part levied over its nuclear program. The protests intensified and grew into calls directly challenging Iran’s theocracy.

Nikhinson reported from aboard Air Force One.

In this frame grab from video obtained by the AP outside Iran, a masked demonstrator holds a picture of Iran's Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi during a protest in Tehran, Iran, Friday, January. 9, 2026. (UGC via AP)

In this frame grab from footage circulating on social media from Iran shows protesters taking to the streets despite an intensifying crackdown as the Islamic Republic remains cut off from the rest of the world in Tehran, Iran, Friday, Jan. 9, 2026.(UGC via AP)

In this frame grab from footage circulating on social media from Iran showed protesters once again taking to the streets of Tehran despite an intensifying crackdown as the Islamic Republic remains cut off from the rest of the world in Tehran, Iran, Saturday Jan. 10, 2026. (UGC via AP)