Play your cardinals right: Betting on next pope gains popularity ahead of the conclave

ROME (AP) — Next week’s conclave to elect the successor to Pope Francis as leader of the world’s 1.4 billion Catholics is a solemn affair steeped in centuries-old traditions.

But far from the Sistine Chapel where cloistered cardinals will cast votes, people are placing bets on who will be chosen as the next pope. From cash bets on websites to online games modeled after fantasy football leagues and casual wagers among friends and families, the popularity of guessing and gambling on the future of the papacy is increasing worldwide, experts and participants say.

It's even topped the Europa League soccer tournament and Formula One drivers’ championship, said Sam Eaton, U.K. manager for Oddschecker, a leading online platform analyzing odds across sports, events and other betting markets.

“There’s a huge level of interest globally," he said. “I don’t think we’ve had a market like this where we’ve had so many countries interested in seeing odds.”

Hundreds of thousands of people from some 140 countries have visited Oddschecker to review each cardinal’s chances of becoming the next pope, Eaton said. He noted special eagerness in the United Kingdom, Ireland and the United States.

In the U.K., about 30,000 pounds (almost $40,000) have been wagered with one leading online betting platform as of this week, Eaton said – a far cry from 1.2 million pounds on the singing contest Eurovision but still noteworthy as a trend, with the conclave days away.

“Betting on the next pope is definitely a niche market in the grand scheme of things, but it generates global interest,” said Lee Phelps, a spokesman for William Hill, one of the U.K.’s biggest bookmakers.

“Since April 21, we’ve taken thousands of bets, and it’s the busiest of all our non-sports betting markets,” said Phelps, who expects a surge in interest once the conclave begins Wednesday.

Betting on elections, papal conclaves and all manner of global events is almost a tradition of its own in the U.K., but such betting is not legal in the United States. BetMGM, one of the world’s top sports-betting companies, said it would not have any bets up.

But Eaton noted that in the unregulated, illegal space, one of the biggest sites has $10 million wagered so far in pope bets.

In Italy, betting on the papal election — and all religious events — is forbidden.

Some people in Rome are making friendly, informal wagers — the equivalent of $20 on a favorite cardinal, with the loser pledging to host a dinner or buy a pizza night out.

Others are turning to an online game called Fantapapa, or Fantasy Pope, which mimics popular fantasy football and soccer leagues. More than 60,000 people are playing, each choosing 11 cardinals – as if for a soccer team – whom they believe have the best shot at becoming the next pope.

They also draft the top contender, or captain. As with online wagers, the No. 1 choice for fantasy players has been Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin, closely followed by Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle.

“It’s a really fun game to play with friends and have a laugh,” Italian student Federico La Rocca, 23, said. “Initially my dad sent it to me ironically, but now that it’s going to be the conclave, I decided to have a go and try it.”

La Rocca said he chose Tagle because “he looks like a nice guy and fun person.”

Players’ selections determine the number of points they rake in. But what’s the jackpot?

“Eternal glory,” joked Mauro Vanetti, who created the game when Francis was hospitalized earlier this year.

Vanetti said he and his co-founder are against gambling, but they wanted to create something fun around the event.

“It seems like in Italy there’s a certain inquisitiveness about the mechanisms of the Catholic hierarchy, but it’s a critical curiosity, a sarcastic and playful curiosity, so we were interested in this jesting spirit for such a solemn event,” Vanetti said. “In some ways it deflates the sacredness, in a nonaggressive way.”

Beyond simply picking who the next pope will be, players and gamblers also can guess how many tries it will take the cardinals to choose the leader, which day of the week he’ll be elected, what new name he will decide on, or where his priorities will land on the progressive-conservative scale.

While the game and some of the bets have a novel or fun nature, anti-gambling advocates have raised overall concerns about legal gaming and the growing popularity of wagering on all manner of events.

A study published last fall found that 10% of young men in the U.S. show behavior that indicates a gambling problem, which is a rising concern in other parts of the world, too.

And for gambling around the papacy in general, some have raised religious concerns. Catholic teaching doesn’t go so far as to call games of chance or wagers sinful, but its Catechism warns that “the passion for gambling risks becoming an enslavement.”

It says gambling becomes “morally unacceptable” if it gravely affects a person’s livelihood.

Hui reported from London. AP writers Giovanna Dell'Orto in Rome and Mark Anderson in Las Vegas contributed.

Associated Press religion coverage receives support through the AP’s collaboration with The Conversation US, with funding from Lilly Endowment Inc. The AP is solely responsible for this content.

A street screen dedicated to Pope Francis reads "Rome hugs Francis with Love" in downtown Rome, Friday, May 2, 2025. (AP Photo/Bernat Armangue)

Pilgrims arrive to visit St. Peter's Basilica on the seventh of nine days of mourning for late Pope Francis, at the Vatican, Friday, May 2, 2025. (AP Photo/Francisco Seco)

Cardinals nattend a mass on the sixth of nine days of mourning for late Pope Francis, in St. Peter's Basilica at the Vatican, Thursday, May 1, 2025. (AP Photo/Gregorio Borgia)

Cardinals attend a mass on the fifth of nine days of mourning for late Pope Francis, in St. Peter's Basilica at the Vatican, Wednesday, April 30, 2025. (AP Photo/Alessandra Tarantino)

People wait before the funeral of Pope Francis in St. Peter's Square at the Vatican, Saturday, April 26, 2025. (AP Photo/Andreea Alexandru)

NEW YORK (AP) — Thousands of nurses in three hospital systems in New York City went on strike Monday after negotiations through the weekend failed to yield breakthroughs in their contract disputes.

The strike was taking place at The Mount Sinai Hospital and two of its satellite campuses, with picket lines forming. The other affected hospitals are NewYork-Presbyterian and Montefiore Medical Center in the Bronx.

About 15,000 nurses are involved in the strike, according to New York State Nurses Association.

“After months of bargaining, management refused to make meaningful progress on core issues that nurses have been fighting for: safe staffing for patients, healthcare benefits for nurses, and workplace violence protections,” the union said in a statement issued Monday. “Management at the richest hospitals in New York City are threatening to discontinue or radically cut nurses’ health benefits.”

The strike, which comes during a severe flu season, could potentially force the hospitals to transfer patients, cancel procedures or divert ambulances. It could also put a strain on city hospitals not involved in the contract dispute, as patients avoid the medical centers hit by the strike.

The hospitals involved have been hiring temporary nurses to try and fill the labor gap during the walkout, and said in a statement during negotiations that they would “do whatever is necessary to minimize disruptions.” Montefiore posted a message assuring patients that appointments would be kept.

“NYSNA’s leaders continue to double down on their $3.6 billion in reckless demands, including nearly 40% wage increases, and their troubling proposals like demanding that a nurse not be terminated if found to be compromised by drugs or alcohol while on the job," Montefiore spokesperson Joe Solmonese said Monday after the strike had started. "We remain resolute in our commitment to providing safe and seamless care, regardless of how long the strike may last.”

New York-Presbyterian accused the union of staging a strike to “create disruption,” but said in a statement that it has taken steps to ensure patients receive the care they need.

"We’re ready to keep negotiating a fair and reasonable contract that reflects our respect for our nurses and the critical role they play, and also recognizes the challenging realities of today’s healthcare environment,” the statement said.

The work stoppage is occurring at multiple hospitals simultaneously, but each medical center is negotiating with the union independently. Several other hospitals across the city and in its suburbs reached deals in recent days to avert a possible strike.

The nurses’ demands vary by hospital, but the major issues include staffing levels and workplace safety. The union says hospitals have given nurses unmanageable workloads.

Nurses also want better security measures in the workplace, citing incidents like a an incident last week, when a man with a sharp object barricaded himself in a Brooklyn hospital room and was then killed by police.

The union also wants limitations on hospitals’ use of artificial intelligence.

The nonprofit hospitals involved in the negotiations say they’ve been working to improve staffing levels, but say the union’s demands overall are too costly.

Nurses voted to authorize the strike last month.

Both New York Gov. Kathy Hochul and Mayor Zohran Mamdani had expressed concern about the possibility of the strike. As the strike deadline neared, Mamdani urged both sides to keep negotiating and reach a deal that “both honors our nurses and keeps our hospitals open.”

“Our nurses kept this city alive through its hardest moments. Their value is not negotiable,” Mamdani said.

State Attorney General Letitia James voiced similar support, saying "nurses put their lives on the line every day to keep New Yorkers healthy. They should never be forced to choose between their own safety, their patients’ well-being, and a fair contract.”

The last major nursing strike in the city was only three years ago, in 2023. That work stoppage, at Mount Sinai and Montefiore, was short, lasting three days. It resulted in a deal raising pay 19% over three years at those hospitals.

It also led to promised staffing improvements, though the union and hospitals now disagree about how much progress has been made, or whether the hospitals are retreating from staffing guarantees.

Nurses strike outside Mount Sinai West Hospital, Monday, Jan. 12, 2026, in New York. (AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura)

Nurses strike outside Mount Sinai West Hospital, Monday, Jan. 12, 2026, in New York. (AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura)

Nurses strike outside Mount Sinai West Hospital, Monday, Jan. 12, 2026, in New York. (AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura)

Nurses strike outside Mount Sinai West Hospital, Monday, Jan. 12, 2026, in New York. (AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura)

FILE - A medical worker transports a patient at Mount Sinai Hospital, April 1, 2020, in New York. (AP Photo/Mary Altaffer, File)