NATO mulls US demand for a big increase in defense spending as some struggle to meet today's goal

ANTALYA, Turkey (AP) — NATO foreign ministers on Thursday debated an American demand to massively ramp up defense investment as the United States focuses on security challenges outside of Europe.

At talks in Antalya, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said more investment and military equipment are needed to deal with threats posed by Russia and terrorism but also by China, which has become the focus of U.S. concern.

“When it comes to the core defense spending, we need to do much, much more,” Rutte told reporters. He underlined that once Russia's war in Ukraine is over, Moscow could reconstitute its armed forces within three years to five years.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said “the alliance is only as strong as its weakest link.” He insisted that the U.S. demand for allies to invest 5% of their gross domestic product on defense over the next seven years is about “spending money on the capabilities that are needed for the threats of the 21st century.”

The debate on defense spending is heating up before the summit of President Donald Trump and his NATO counterparts in the Netherlands on June 24-25. That gathering will set the course for future European security, including that of Ukraine.

Further to that, Russian and Ukrainian delegations plan to hold their first direct peace talks in three years in Istanbul, even as Russian President Vladimir Putin spurned Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s offer to meet face to face.

Rubio said he would confer Friday in Istanbul with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and the Ukrainian delegation. He said the Russian delegation would be meeting with other members of the U.S. team and he hoped all the sides could come together.

In other diplomacy, Rubio met with Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani on the sidelines of the NATO meeting, underscoring support for lifting U.S. sanctions and welcoming Syria's “calls for peace with Israel,” the State Department said.

The NATO sessions focused on a new spending plan in the works. As Russia’s war on Ukraine entered its second year, NATO leaders agreed in 2023 to spend at least 2% of gross domestic product on national defense budgets. So far, 22 of the 32 member countries have done so.

The new plan is for all allies to aim for 3.5% of GDP on their defense budgets by 2032, plus an extra 1.5% on potentially defense-related things like infrastructure — roads, bridges, airports and seaports.

While the two figures add up to 5%, factoring in infrastructure and cybersecurity would change the basis on which NATO traditionally calculates defense spending. The seven-year time frame is also short by the alliance’s usual standards.

Rutte refused to confirm the numbers but acknowledged the importance of including infrastructure.

It’s difficult to see how many members would reach a new 3.5% goal. Belgium, Canada, Croatia, Italy, Luxembourg, Montenegro, Portugal, Slovenia and Spain are not even spending 2% yet, though Spain expects to reach that goal this year, a year past the deadline.

The U.S. demand would require investment at an unprecedented scale. But Trump has cast doubt over whether the U.S. would defend allies that spend too little — an incentive to do more, even as European allies realize that they must match the threat posed by Russia.

Europe-wide, industry leaders and experts have pointed out challenges the continent must overcome to be a truly self-sufficient military power, chiefly its decades-long reliance on the U.S. as well as its fragmented defense industry.

“There is a lot at stake for us,” Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys said. He urged NATO partners to meet the investment goals faster than the 2032 target "because we see the tempo and the speed, how Russia generates its forces now as we speak.”

British Foreign Secretary David Lammy said his country should reach 2.5% by 2027, and then 3% by the next U.K. elections planned for 2029.

“It’s hugely important that we recommit to Europe’s defense and that we step up alongside our U.S. partners in this challenging geopolitical moment where there are so many precious across the world, and particularly in the Indo-Pacific,” he said.

As an organization, NATO plays no direct security role in Asia, and it's unclear what demands the Trump administration might make of the allies as it turns its attention to China. The last NATO security operation outside the Euro-Atlantic area, its 18-year stay in Afghanistan, ended in chaos.

Asked whether the next summit communique will underline that Russia still poses the greatest threat to NATO allies, Rutte said, "We will see what is the best way to play that.”

Questions also hang over the way the leaders will frame NATO's commitment to Ukraine. The war has dominated recent summits, with envoys struggling to find language that would further anchor the country to the alliance without actually allowing it to join.

But this year, Washington has taken Ukraine's membership off the table. Trump has shown impatience with Zelenskyy and remains unclear whether the Ukrainian leader will be invited to the June meeting in The Hague.

Cook reported from Brussels, and Fraser from Ankara, Turkey.

NATO foreign ministers gather during a NATO's informal meeting of foreign ministers in Antalya, southern Turkey, Thursday, May 15, 2025. (AP Photo/Khalil Hamra)

United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio, right, talks to British Foreign Secretary David Lammy during an informal meeting of NATO's foreign ministers in Antalya, southern Turkey, Thursday, May 15, 2025. (AP Photo/Khalil Hamra)

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte attends a news conference at a NATO's informal meeting of foreign ministers in Antalya, southern Turkey, Thursday, May 15, 2025. (AP Photo/Khalil Hamra)

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, right, talks to Luxembourg's Foreign Minister Xavier Bettel as they arrive for a group photo during a NATO's informal meeting of foreign ministers in Antalya, southern Turkey, Thursday, May 15, 2025. (AP Photo/Khalil Hamra)

Turkey's Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, center, talks to British Foreign Secretary David Lammy, right, next to Germany's Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul, left, as they wait for a group photo during a NATO's informal meeting of foreign ministers in Antalya, southern Turkey, Thursday, May 15, 2025. (AP Photo/Khalil Hamra)

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte talks to journalists as he arrives for a NATO's informal meeting of foreign ministers in Antalya, southern Turkey, Thursday, May 15, 2025. (AP Photo/Khalil Hamra)

British Foreign Secretary David Lammy talks to journalists as he arrives for a NATO's informal meeting of foreign ministers in Antalya, southern Turkey, Thursday, May 15, 2025. (AP Photo/Khalil Hamra)

NATO foreign ministers pose for a group photo during their informal meeting in Antalya, southern Turkey, Thursday, May 15, 2025. (AP Photo/Khalil Hamra)

Turkey's Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan talks to journalists as he arrives for a NATO's informal meeting of foreign ministers in Antalya, southern Turkey, Thursday, May 15, 2025. (AP Photo/Khalil Hamra)

United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio, right, talks to British Foreign Secretary David Lammy during an informal meeting of NATO's foreign ministers in Antalya, southern Turkey, Thursday, May 15, 2025. (AP Photo/Khalil Hamra)

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte talks to journalists as he arrives for NATO's informal meeting of foreign ministers in Antalya, southern Turkey, Thursday, May 15, 2025. (AP Photo/Khalil Hamra)

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during a joint press statement with Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, Wednesday, May 14, 2025. (Alexander Nemenov/Pool Photo via AP)

Secretary of State Marco Rubio departs a lunch between President Donald Trump and Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani at the Amiri Diwan in Doha, Qatar, Wednesday, May 14, 2025. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran wants to negotiate with Washington after his threat to strike the Islamic Republic over its bloody crackdown on protesters, a move coming as activists said Monday the death toll in the nationwide demonstrations rose to at least 544.

Iran had no immediate reaction to the news, which came after the foreign minister of Oman — long an interlocutor between Washington and Tehran — traveled to Iran this weekend. It also remains unclear just what Iran could promise, particularly as Trump has set strict demands over its nuclear program and its ballistic missile arsenal, which Tehran insists is crucial for its national defense.

Meanwhile Monday, Iran called for pro-government demonstrators to head to the streets in support of the theocracy, a show of force after days of protests directly challenging the rule of 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iranian state television aired chants from the crowd, who shouted “Death to America!” and “Death to Israel!”

Trump and his national security team have been weighing a range of potential responses against Iran including cyberattacks and direct strikes by the U.S. or Israel, according to two people familiar with internal White House discussions who were not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity.

“The military is looking at it, and we’re looking at some very strong options,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One on Sunday night. Asked about Iran’s threats of retaliation, he said: “If they do that, we will hit them at levels that they’ve never been hit before.”

Trump said that his administration was in talks to set up a meeting with Tehran, but cautioned that he may have to act first as reports of the death toll in Iran mount and the government continues to arrest protesters.

“I think they’re tired of being beat up by the United States,” Trump said. “Iran wants to negotiate.”

He added: “The meeting is being set up, but we may have to act because of what’s happening before the meeting. But a meeting is being set up. Iran called, they want to negotiate.”

Iran through country's parliamentary speaker warned Sunday that the U.S. military and Israel would be “legitimate targets” if America uses force to protect demonstrators.

More than 10,600 people also have been detained over the two weeks of protests, said the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency, which has been accurate in previous unrest in recent years and gave the death toll. It relies on supporters in Iran crosschecking information. It said 496 of the dead were protesters and 48 were with security forces.

With the internet down in Iran and phone lines cut off, gauging the demonstrations from abroad has grown more difficult. The Associated Press has been unable to independently assess the toll. Iran’s government has not offered overall casualty figures.

Those abroad fear the information blackout is emboldening hard-liners within Iran’s security services to launch a bloody crackdown. Protesters flooded the streets in the country’s capital and its second-largest city on Saturday night into Sunday morning. Online videos purported to show more demonstrations Sunday night into Monday, with a Tehran official acknowledging them in state media.

In Tehran, a witness told the AP that the streets of the capital empty at the sunset call to prayers each night. By the Isha, or nighttime prayer, the streets are deserted.

Part of that stems from the fear of getting caught in the crackdown. Police sent the public a text message that warned: “Given the presence of terrorist groups and armed individuals in some gatherings last night and their plans to cause death, and the firm decision to not tolerate any appeasement and to deal decisively with the rioters, families are strongly advised to take care of their youth and teenagers.”

Another text, which claimed to come from the intelligence arm of the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, also directly warned people not to take part in demonstrations.

“Dear parents, in view of the enemy’s plan to increase the level of naked violence and the decision to kill people, ... refrain from being on the streets and gathering in places involved in violence, and inform your children about the consequences of cooperating with terrorist mercenaries, which is an example of treason against the country,” the text warned.

The witness spoke to the AP on condition of anonymity due to the ongoing crackdown.

The demonstrations began Dec. 28 over the collapse of the Iranian rial currency, which trades at over 1.4 million to $1, as the country’s economy is squeezed by international sanctions in part levied over its nuclear program. The protests intensified and grew into calls directly challenging Iran’s theocracy.

Nikhinson reported from aboard Air Force One.

In this frame grab from video obtained by the AP outside Iran, a masked demonstrator holds a picture of Iran's Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi during a protest in Tehran, Iran, Friday, January. 9, 2026. (UGC via AP)

In this frame grab from footage circulating on social media from Iran shows protesters taking to the streets despite an intensifying crackdown as the Islamic Republic remains cut off from the rest of the world in Tehran, Iran, Friday, Jan. 9, 2026.(UGC via AP)

In this frame grab from footage circulating on social media from Iran showed protesters once again taking to the streets of Tehran despite an intensifying crackdown as the Islamic Republic remains cut off from the rest of the world in Tehran, Iran, Saturday Jan. 10, 2026. (UGC via AP)