FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff offensive has led European officials to cut their growth forecasts for this year and next — even in a best-case scenario in which the highest rates on most goods could be negotiated away.
The forecast for this year for the 20 countries that use the euro currency was cut to 0.9% from the previous forecast in November of 1.3%, the European Union's executive commission said Monday in its regular spring forecast.
The forecast for 2026 was cut to 1.4% from 1.6%.
One reason for the lower growth estimate was the stagnating economy in Germany, where growth is expected to be zero this year after two years of shrinking output. Germany's economy is heavily dependent on exports but has faced strong headwinds from higher energy costs after the loss of Russian natural gas due to the invasion of Ukraine as well from lack of pro-growth infrastructure spending and competition from China in autos and industrial machinery.
The proposal for a 20% U.S. tariff, or import tax, on goods from Europe in addition to its suspension for 90 days have meant uncertainty “not seen since the darkest days of the COVID-19 pandemic,” said Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis.
He said the European economy remained “resilient” and that the jobs market remained robust, with the commission predicting a fall in unemployment to a record low 5.7% next year.
And the risks are “tilted to the downside,” he said. One reason: The forecast assumes that the proposed 20% rate can be reduced through negotiations with Washington to the base tariff rate imposed on all countries of 10%.
While the EU's top trade official, Maros Sefcovic, has spoken several times with administration officials it remains uncertain how willing Trump might be to reduce the rate. European officials have paused any retaliatory tariffs for 90 days and made a “zero for zero” offer in which each side would drop tariffs on industrial goods such as autos.
The forecast assumed that 25% tariffs on steel and autos from all countries will remain in place, as would exemptions on computer chips and pharmaceuticals.
The eurozone economy grew 0.3% in the first three months of the year, amid hopeful signs of a stronger upswing. But the mood was darkened just two days after the first quarter ended, when Trump on April 2 announced a slew of new, higher than expected tariffs on almost all US trading partners.
FILE - Robots work on cars of German car manufacturer BMW at an assembly line in Munich, Germany, Friday, Oct. 22, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthias Schrader, File)
A man walks up to the entrance of a bank in Frankfurt, Germany, Monday, May 19, 2025. (AP Photo/Michael Probst)
Buildings are pictured in the business district in Frankfurt, Germany, Monday, May 19, 2025. (AP Photo/Michael Probst)
YANGON, Myanmar (AP) — Myanmar began a second round of voting Sunday in its first general election since the military takeover five years ago.
Voting expanded to additional townships including some areas affected by the civil war between the military government and its armed opponents.
Critics say the polls organized by the military government are neither free nor fair and are an effort by the military to legitimize its rule after seizing power from the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021.
Tom Andrews, a special rapporteur working with the U.N. human rights office, urged the international community Thursday to reject what he called a “sham election,” saying the first round exposed coercion, violence and political exclusion.
“You cannot have a free, fair or credible election when thousands of political prisoners are behind bars, credible opposition parties have been dissolved, journalists are muzzled, and fundamental freedoms are crushed,” Andrews said.
According to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, which keeps detailed tallies of arrests and casualties linked to the conflict, more than 22,000 people are detained for political offenses, and more than 7,600 civilians have been killed by security forces since 2021.
The army’s takeover triggered widespread peaceful protests that soon erupted into armed resistance, and the country slipped into a civil war.
A new Election Protection Law imposes harsh penalties and restrictions for virtually all public criticism of the polls. The authorities have charged more than 330 people under new electoral law for leafleting or online activity over the past few months.
Opposition organizations and ethnic armed groups had previously vowed to disrupt the electoral process.
On Sunday, attacks targeting polling stations and government buildings were reported in at least four of the 100 townships holding polls, with two administrative officials killed, independent online media, including Myanmar Now, reported.
Polling stations opened at 6 a.m. in 100 townships across the country, including parts of Sagaing, Magway, Mandalay, Bago and Tanintharyi regions, as well as Mon, Shan, Kachin, Kayah and Kayin states. Many of those areas have recently seen clashes or remain under heightened security, underscoring the risks surrounding the vote.
The election is being held in three phases due to armed conflicts. The first round took place Dec. 28 in 102 of the country’s total 330 townships. A final round is scheduled for Jan. 25, though 65 townships will not take part because of fighting.
Myanmar has a two-house national legislature, totaling 664 seats. The party with a combined parliamentary majority can select the new president, who can name a Cabinet and form a new government. The military automatically receives 25% of seats in each house under the constitution.
Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun, the military government's spokesperson, told journalists on Sunday that the two houses of parliament will be convened in March, and the new government will take up its duties in April.
On Sunday, people in Yangon and Mandalay, the two largest cities, cast their ballots in high schools, government buildings and religious buildings.
At more than 10 polling stations visited by Associated Press journalists, voter numbers ranged from about 150 at the busiest site to just a few at others, appearing lower than during the 2020 election when long lines were common.
The military government said there were more than 24 million eligible voters, about 35% fewer than in 2020. The government called the turnout a success, claiming ballots were cast by more than 6 million people, about 52% of the more than 11 million eligible voters in the election's first phase.
Myo Aung, a chief minister of the Mandalay region, said more people turned out Sunday than in the first phase.
Maung Maung Naing, who voted in Mandalay’s Mahar Aung Myay township, said he wanted a government that will benefit the people.
“I only like a government that can make everything better for livelihoods and social welfare,” he said.
Sandar Min, an independent candidate from Yangon’s Latha township, said she decided to contest the election despite criticism because she wants to work with the government for the good of the country. She hopes the vote will bring change that reduces suffering.
“We want the country to be nonviolent. We do not accept violence as part of the change of the country,” Sandar Min said after casting a vote. “We care deeply about the people of this country.”
While more than 4,800 candidates from 57 parties are competing for seats in national and regional legislatures, only six parties are competing nationwide.
The first phase left the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, or USDP, in a dominant position, winning nearly 90% of the contested seats in the first phase in the lower house. It also won a majority of seats in regional legislatures.
Suu Kyi, Myanmar’s 80-year-old former leader, and her party aren’t participating in the polls. She is serving a 27-year prison term on charges widely viewed as spurious and politically motivated. Her party, the National League for Democracy, was dissolved in 2023, after refusing to register under new military rules.
Other parties also refused to register or declined to run under conditions they deem unfair, while opposition groups have called for a voter boycott.
An official of the Union Election Commission counts ballots at a polling station during the second phase of general election in Mandalay, central Myanmar, Sunday, Jan. 11, 2026. (AP Photo/Aung Shine Oo)
An official of the Union Election Commission shows a slip as they count ballots at a polling station during the second phase of general election in Yangon, Myanmar, Sunday, Jan. 11, 2026. (AP Photo/Thein Zaw)
A voter casts ballot at a polling station during the second phase of general election Sunday, Jan. 11, 2026, in Yangon, Myanmar. (AP Photo/Thein Zaw)
A voter casts ballot at a polling station during the second phase of general election in Mandalay, central Myanmar, Sunday, Jan. 11, 2026. (AP Photo/Aung Shine Oo)
A voter shows his finger, marked with ink to indicate he voted, at a polling station during the second phase of general election in Mandalay, central Myanmar, Sunday, Jan. 11, 2026. (AP Photo/Aung Shine Oo)
Sandar Min, an individual candidate for an election and former parliament member from ousted leader Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) party, shows off her finger marked with ink indicating she voted at a polling station during the second phase of general election Sunday, Jan. 11, 2026, in Yangon, Myanmar. (AP Photo/Thein Zaw)
Voters wait for a polling station to open during the second phase of general election in Mandalay, central Myanmar, Sunday, Jan. 11, 2026. (AP Photo/Aung Shine Oo)
Buddhist monks walk past a polling station opened at a monastery one day before the second phase of the general election in Yangon, Myanmar, Saturday, Jan. 10, 2026. (AP Photo/Thein Zaw)
An official of the Union Election Commission checks a sample slip from an electronic voting machine as they prepare to set up a polling station opened at a monastery one day before the second phase of the general election in Yangon, Myanmar, Saturday, Jan. 10, 2026. (AP Photo/Thein Zaw)
