Boko Haram's resurgence: Why Nigeria's military is struggling to hold the line

ABUJA, Nigeria (AP) — A resurgence of Boko Haram attacks is shaking Nigeria’s northeast, as Islamic extremists have repeatedly overrun military outposts, mined roads with bombs and raided civilian communities since the start of the year, raising fears of a possible return to peak Boko Haram-era insecurity despite the military's claims of successes.

Boko Haram, Nigeria’s homegrown jihadis, took up arms in 2009 to fight Western education and impose their radical version of Islamic law. The conflict has spilled into Nigeria’s northern neighbors and resulted in the death of around 35,000 civilians and the displacement of more than 2 million others, according to the United Nations.

In the latest attack last week in the village of Gajibo in Borno state, the epicenter of the crisis, extremists killed nine members of a local militia that supports the Nigerian military, after soldiers deserted the base when becoming aware of the insurgents’ advance, according to the group’s claim and local aid workers. That is in addition to roadside bombs and deadly attacks on villages in recent months.

Nyelni Kwari's area of Borno, Hawul, includes some of the affected villages, and returning home has become unsafe. “Unfortunately, the situation hasn't improved for me to feel secure,” said Kwari, a graduate student in Borno's capital, Maiduguri.

Boko Haram has split into two factions over the years.

One is backed by the Islamic State group and is known as the Islamic State West Africa Province, or ISWAP. It has become notorious for targeting military positions and has overrun the military on at least 15 occasions this year, killing soldiers and stealing weapons, according to an Associated Press count, experts and security reports.

In May, ISWAP struck outposts in Gajibo, Buni Gari, Marte, Izge and Rann and launched an assault on the Nigeria-Cameroon joint base in Wulgo and Soueram in Cameroon. Other attacks this year have hit Malam Fatori, Goniri, Sabon Gari, Wajiroko and Monguno, among others. The group often attacks at night.

The other faction, Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad, or JAS, has increasingly resorted to attacking civilians and perceived collaborators, and thrives on robberies and abductions for ransom.

Malik Samuel, senior researcher at nonprofit Good Governance Africa, said ISWAP’s success is a result of its territorial expansion following gains against rival JAS as well as a decentralized structure that has enhanced its ability to conduct “coordinated, near-simultaneous attacks across different regions.”

“The unpredictability of attacks under this framework illustrates ISWAP’s growing strategic sophistication,” Samuel said.

External support from IS in Iraq and Syria is also a critical resource, said Samuel, who has interviewed ex-fighters. Such support is evident in ISWAP’s evolving tactics, including nighttime raids, rapid assaults with light but effective weaponry and the use of modified commercial drones to drop explosives, Samuel said.

Ali Abani, a local nonprofit worker familiar with military operations in Borno's strategic town of Dikwa, said army bases are understaffed and located in remote areas, making them vulnerable to attacks.

"When these gunmen come, they just overpower the soldiers,” Abani said.

Reinforcements, in the form of air support or nearby ground troops, are often too slow to arrive, allowing militants time to strip the outposts of weapons needed to bolster their arsenal, he added, recalling a May 12 attack during which soldiers fled as they were outnumbered, leaving the extremists to cart away weaponry.

There also have been reports of former militants who continued to work as informants and logistics handlers after claiming to have repented.

At its peak in 2013 and 2014, Boko Haram gained global notoriety after kidnapping 276 Chibok schoolgirls and controlling an area the size of Belgium.

While it has lost much of that territory because of military campaigns, the new surge in Boko Haram attacks has raised fears about a possible return to the gloomy past.

Borno Gov. Babagana Zulum warned recently of lost gains after raising concerns that military formations in the state are being dislodged “almost on a daily basis without confrontation.”

Federal lawmakers highlight the extremists' growing sophistication and advanced weaponry, calling on the government to bolster military capabilities.

The Nigerian military didn't respond to a request for comment.

Last Friday, senior commanders visited one troubled area, Gamboru on the border with Cameroon, promising the deployment of more troops to combat Boko Haram.

Women and children displaced by Boko haram attacks are seen outside there camp in Dikwa, north east Nigeria, April 29, 2025. (AP Photo/Sunday Alamba)

Women displaced by Boko haram attacks are seen outside there camp in Dikwa, north east Nigeria, April 29, 2025. (AP Photo/Sunday Alamba)

FILE- Women displaced from Boko Haram attacks fetch water from a borehole in Dikwa, north east Nigeria, April 29, 2025. (AP Photo/Sunday Alamba, File)

FILE - A woman walks past Nigerian soldiers at a checkpoint in Gwoza, northeast, Nigeria, April 8, 2015. (AP Photo/Lekan Oyekanmi, File)

FILE - Nigerian soldiers man a checkpoint in Gwoza, northeast, Nigeria, April 8, 2015. (AP Photo/Lekan Oyekanmi, File)

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran wants to negotiate with Washington after his threat to strike the Islamic Republic over its bloody crackdown on protesters, a move coming as activists said Monday the death toll in the nationwide demonstrations rose to at least 544.

Iran had no immediate reaction to the news, which came after the foreign minister of Oman — long an interlocutor between Washington and Tehran — traveled to Iran this weekend. It also remains unclear just what Iran could promise, particularly as Trump has set strict demands over its nuclear program and its ballistic missile arsenal, which Tehran insists is crucial for its national defense.

Meanwhile Monday, Iran called for pro-government demonstrators to head to the streets in support of the theocracy, a show of force after days of protests directly challenging the rule of 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iranian state television aired chants from the crowd, who shouted “Death to America!” and “Death to Israel!”

Trump and his national security team have been weighing a range of potential responses against Iran including cyberattacks and direct strikes by the U.S. or Israel, according to two people familiar with internal White House discussions who were not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity.

“The military is looking at it, and we’re looking at some very strong options,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One on Sunday night. Asked about Iran’s threats of retaliation, he said: “If they do that, we will hit them at levels that they’ve never been hit before.”

Trump said that his administration was in talks to set up a meeting with Tehran, but cautioned that he may have to act first as reports of the death toll in Iran mount and the government continues to arrest protesters.

“I think they’re tired of being beat up by the United States,” Trump said. “Iran wants to negotiate.”

He added: “The meeting is being set up, but we may have to act because of what’s happening before the meeting. But a meeting is being set up. Iran called, they want to negotiate.”

Iran through country's parliamentary speaker warned Sunday that the U.S. military and Israel would be “legitimate targets” if America uses force to protect demonstrators.

More than 10,600 people also have been detained over the two weeks of protests, said the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency, which has been accurate in previous unrest in recent years and gave the death toll. It relies on supporters in Iran crosschecking information. It said 496 of the dead were protesters and 48 were with security forces.

With the internet down in Iran and phone lines cut off, gauging the demonstrations from abroad has grown more difficult. The Associated Press has been unable to independently assess the toll. Iran’s government has not offered overall casualty figures.

Those abroad fear the information blackout is emboldening hard-liners within Iran’s security services to launch a bloody crackdown. Protesters flooded the streets in the country’s capital and its second-largest city on Saturday night into Sunday morning. Online videos purported to show more demonstrations Sunday night into Monday, with a Tehran official acknowledging them in state media.

In Tehran, a witness told the AP that the streets of the capital empty at the sunset call to prayers each night. By the Isha, or nighttime prayer, the streets are deserted.

Part of that stems from the fear of getting caught in the crackdown. Police sent the public a text message that warned: “Given the presence of terrorist groups and armed individuals in some gatherings last night and their plans to cause death, and the firm decision to not tolerate any appeasement and to deal decisively with the rioters, families are strongly advised to take care of their youth and teenagers.”

Another text, which claimed to come from the intelligence arm of the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, also directly warned people not to take part in demonstrations.

“Dear parents, in view of the enemy’s plan to increase the level of naked violence and the decision to kill people, ... refrain from being on the streets and gathering in places involved in violence, and inform your children about the consequences of cooperating with terrorist mercenaries, which is an example of treason against the country,” the text warned.

The witness spoke to the AP on condition of anonymity due to the ongoing crackdown.

The demonstrations began Dec. 28 over the collapse of the Iranian rial currency, which trades at over 1.4 million to $1, as the country’s economy is squeezed by international sanctions in part levied over its nuclear program. The protests intensified and grew into calls directly challenging Iran’s theocracy.

Nikhinson reported from aboard Air Force One.

In this frame grab from video obtained by the AP outside Iran, a masked demonstrator holds a picture of Iran's Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi during a protest in Tehran, Iran, Friday, January. 9, 2026. (UGC via AP)

In this frame grab from footage circulating on social media from Iran shows protesters taking to the streets despite an intensifying crackdown as the Islamic Republic remains cut off from the rest of the world in Tehran, Iran, Friday, Jan. 9, 2026.(UGC via AP)

In this frame grab from footage circulating on social media from Iran showed protesters once again taking to the streets of Tehran despite an intensifying crackdown as the Islamic Republic remains cut off from the rest of the world in Tehran, Iran, Saturday Jan. 10, 2026. (UGC via AP)