Trump and Putin want to talk business once the Ukraine war ends. Here's why it won't be easy

Hundreds of foreign companies left Russia after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, including major U.S. firms like Coca-Cola, Nike, Starbucks, ExxonMobil and Ford Motor Co.

But after more than three years of war, President Donald Trump has held out the prospect of restoring U.S.-Russia trade if there’s ever a peace settlement. And Russian President Vladimir Putin has said foreign companies could come back under some circumstances.

“Russia wants to do largescale TRADE with the United States when this catastrophic ‘bloodbath’ is over, and I agree,” Trump said in a statement after a phone call with Putin. “There is a tremendous opportunity for Russia to create massive amounts of jobs and wealth. Its potential is UNLIMITED.”

The president then shifted his tone toward Putin after heavy drone and missile attacks on Kyiv, saying Putin “has gone absolutely crazy” and threatening new sanctions. That and recent comments from Putin warning Western companies against reclaiming their former stakes seemed to reflect reality more accurately — that it’s not going to be a smooth process for businesses going back into Russia.

That’s because Russia’s business environment has massively changed since 2022. And not in ways that favor foreign companies.

And with Putin escalating attacks and holding on to territory demands Ukraine likely isn’t going to accept, a peace deal seems distant indeed.

Here are factors that could deter U.S. companies from ever going back:

Russian law classifies Ukraine’s allies as “unfriendly states” and imposes severe restrictions on businesses from more than 50 countries. Those include limits on withdrawing money and equipment as well as allowing the Russian government to take control of companies deemed important. Foreign owners’ votes on boards of directors can be legally disregarded.

Companies that left were required to sell their businesses for 50% or less of their assessed worth, or simply wrote them off while Kremlin-friendly business groups snapped up their assets on the cheap. Under a 2023 presidential decree the Russian government took control of Finnish energy company Fortum, German power company Unipro, France’s dairy company Danone and Danish brewer Carlsberg.

Even if a peace deal removed the U.S. from the list of unfriendlies, and if the massive Western sanctions restricting business in Russia were dropped, the track record of losses would remain vivid. And there’s little sign any of that is going to happen.

While the Russian government has talked in general about companies coming back, “there’s no specific evidence of any one company saying that they are ready to come back,” said Chris Weafer, CEO of Macro-Advisory Ltd. consultancy. “It’s all at the political narrative level.”

Russia’s actions and legal changes have left “long-lasting damage” to its business environment, says Elina Ribakova, non-resident senior fellow at the Bruegel research institute in Brussels.

She said a return of U.S. businesses is “not very likely.”

In a meeting at the Kremlin on May 26 to mark Russian Entrepreneurs Day, Putin said that Russia needed to throttle large tech firms such as Zoom and Microsoft, which had restricted their services in Russia after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, so that domestic tech companies could thrive instead.

“We need to strangle them,” Putin said. “After all, they are trying to strangle us: we need to reciprocate. We didn’t kick anyone out; we didn’t interfere with anyone. We provided the most favorable conditions possible for their work here, in our market, and they are trying to strangle us.”

He reassured a representative from Vkusno-i Tochka (Tasty-period) — the Russian-owned company that took over McDonald’s restaurants in the country — that Moscow would aid them if the U.S. fast food giant tried to buy back its former stores. Asked for comment, McDonald’s referred to their 2022 statement that “ownership of the business in Russia is no longer tenable.”

On top of Russia’s difficult business environment, the economy is likely to stagnate due to lack of investment in sectors other than the military, economists say.

“Russia has one of the lowest projected long-term growth rates and one of the highest levels of country risk in the world,” says Heli Simola, senior economist at the Bank of Finland in a blog post. “Only Belarus offers an equally lousy combination of growth and risk.”

Most of the opportunity to make money is related to military production, and it’s unlikely U.S. companies would work with the Russian military-industrial complex, said Ribakova. “It’s not clear where exactly one could plug in and expect outsize returns that would compensate for this negative investment environment.”

Some companies, including Renault and Ford Motor Co., left with repurchase agreements letting them buy back their stakes years later if conditions change. But given Russia’s unsteady legal environment, that’s tough to count on.

The Russian purchasers may try to change the terms, look for more money, or ignore the agreements, said Weafer. “There’s a lot of uncertainty as to how those buyback auctions will be enforced.”

Multinational oil companies were among those who suffered losses leaving Russia, so it’s an open question whether they would want to try again even given Russia’s vast oil and gas reserves. US.. major ExxonMobil saw its stake in the Sakhalin oil project unilaterally terminated and wrote off $3.4 billion.

Russia’s major oil companies have less need of foreign partners than they did in the immediate post-Soviet era, though smaller oil field services might want to return given the size of Russia’s oil industry. But they would have to face new requirements on establishing local presence and investment, Weafer said.

According to the Kyiv School of Economics, 2,329 foreign companies are still doing business in Russia, many from China or other countries that aren’t allied with Ukraine, while 1,344 are in the process of leaving and 494 have exited completely. The Yale School of Management’s Chief Executive Leadership Institute lists some two dozen U.S. companies still doing business in Russia, while some 100 more have cut back by halting new investments.

U.S. sanctions are considered the toughest, because they carry the threat of being cut off from the U.S. banking and financial system. But the EU is still slapping new rounds of sanctions on Russia. Even if U.S. sanctions are dropped, EU sanctions would continue to present compliance headaches for any company that also wants to do business in Europe.

FILE - Russian President Vladimir Putin holds a meeting with members of Russia's business community at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, Monday, May 26, 2025. (Grigory Sysoyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File)

FILE - Russian President Vladimir Putin, fourth right, speaks during a meeting with members of Russia's business community at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, Monday, May 26, 2025. (Grigory Sysoyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File)

FILE - People line up to visit a newly opened fast food restaurant in a former McDonald's outlet in Bolshaya Bronnaya Street in Moscow, Russia, Sunday, June 12, 2022. The sign reads "The Name Changes, Love Remains." (AP Photo/Dmitry Serebryakov, File)

FILE - Patrons sit near the illuminated logo of a newly opened Stars Coffee cafe in the former location of a Starbucks in Moscow, Russia, on Jan. 24, 2023. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko, File)

FILE - In this photo released by the Russian Defense Ministry Press Service on Friday, April 19, 2024, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, second right, visits a factory workshop as he checks the implementation of the state defense order at an enterprise of the military-industrial complex in the Omsk region of Russia, which produces tanks and heavy flamethrower systems. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP, File)

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran wants to negotiate with Washington after his threat to strike the Islamic Republic over its bloody crackdown on protesters, a move coming as activists said Monday the death toll in the nationwide demonstrations rose to at least 544.

Iran had no immediate reaction to the news, which came after the foreign minister of Oman — long an interlocutor between Washington and Tehran — traveled to Iran this weekend. It also remains unclear just what Iran could promise, particularly as Trump has set strict demands over its nuclear program and its ballistic missile arsenal, which Tehran insists is crucial for its national defense.

Meanwhile Monday, Iran called for pro-government demonstrators to head to the streets in support of the theocracy, a show of force after days of protests directly challenging the rule of 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iranian state television aired chants from the crowd, who shouted “Death to America!” and “Death to Israel!”

Trump and his national security team have been weighing a range of potential responses against Iran including cyberattacks and direct strikes by the U.S. or Israel, according to two people familiar with internal White House discussions who were not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity.

“The military is looking at it, and we’re looking at some very strong options,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One on Sunday night. Asked about Iran’s threats of retaliation, he said: “If they do that, we will hit them at levels that they’ve never been hit before.”

Trump said that his administration was in talks to set up a meeting with Tehran, but cautioned that he may have to act first as reports of the death toll in Iran mount and the government continues to arrest protesters.

“I think they’re tired of being beat up by the United States,” Trump said. “Iran wants to negotiate.”

He added: “The meeting is being set up, but we may have to act because of what’s happening before the meeting. But a meeting is being set up. Iran called, they want to negotiate.”

Iran through country's parliamentary speaker warned Sunday that the U.S. military and Israel would be “legitimate targets” if America uses force to protect demonstrators.

More than 10,600 people also have been detained over the two weeks of protests, said the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency, which has been accurate in previous unrest in recent years and gave the death toll. It relies on supporters in Iran crosschecking information. It said 496 of the dead were protesters and 48 were with security forces.

With the internet down in Iran and phone lines cut off, gauging the demonstrations from abroad has grown more difficult. The Associated Press has been unable to independently assess the toll. Iran’s government has not offered overall casualty figures.

Those abroad fear the information blackout is emboldening hard-liners within Iran’s security services to launch a bloody crackdown. Protesters flooded the streets in the country’s capital and its second-largest city on Saturday night into Sunday morning. Online videos purported to show more demonstrations Sunday night into Monday, with a Tehran official acknowledging them in state media.

In Tehran, a witness told the AP that the streets of the capital empty at the sunset call to prayers each night. By the Isha, or nighttime prayer, the streets are deserted.

Part of that stems from the fear of getting caught in the crackdown. Police sent the public a text message that warned: “Given the presence of terrorist groups and armed individuals in some gatherings last night and their plans to cause death, and the firm decision to not tolerate any appeasement and to deal decisively with the rioters, families are strongly advised to take care of their youth and teenagers.”

Another text, which claimed to come from the intelligence arm of the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, also directly warned people not to take part in demonstrations.

“Dear parents, in view of the enemy’s plan to increase the level of naked violence and the decision to kill people, ... refrain from being on the streets and gathering in places involved in violence, and inform your children about the consequences of cooperating with terrorist mercenaries, which is an example of treason against the country,” the text warned.

The witness spoke to the AP on condition of anonymity due to the ongoing crackdown.

The demonstrations began Dec. 28 over the collapse of the Iranian rial currency, which trades at over 1.4 million to $1, as the country’s economy is squeezed by international sanctions in part levied over its nuclear program. The protests intensified and grew into calls directly challenging Iran’s theocracy.

Nikhinson reported from aboard Air Force One.

In this frame grab from video obtained by the AP outside Iran, a masked demonstrator holds a picture of Iran's Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi during a protest in Tehran, Iran, Friday, January. 9, 2026. (UGC via AP)

In this frame grab from footage circulating on social media from Iran shows protesters taking to the streets despite an intensifying crackdown as the Islamic Republic remains cut off from the rest of the world in Tehran, Iran, Friday, Jan. 9, 2026.(UGC via AP)

In this frame grab from footage circulating on social media from Iran showed protesters once again taking to the streets of Tehran despite an intensifying crackdown as the Islamic Republic remains cut off from the rest of the world in Tehran, Iran, Saturday Jan. 10, 2026. (UGC via AP)