CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. (AP) — It turns out that looming collision between our Milky Way and Andromeda galaxies might not happen after all.
Astronomers reported Monday that the probability of the two spiral galaxies colliding is less than previously thought, with a 50-50 chance within the next 10 billion years. That’s essentially a coin flip, but still better odds than previous estimates and farther out in time.
“As it stands, proclamations of the impending demise of our galaxy seem greatly exaggerated,” the Finnish-led team wrote in a study appearing in Nature Astronomy.
While good news for the Milky Way galaxy, the latest forecast may be moot for humanity.
“We likely won’t live to see the benefit," lead author Till Sawala of the University of Helsinki said in an email.
Already more than 4.5 billion years old, the sun is on course to run out of energy and die in another 5 billion years or so, but not before becoming so big it will engulf Mercury, Venus and possibly Earth. Even if it doesn’t swallow Earth, the home planet will be left a burnt ball, its oceans long since boiled away.
Sawala’s international team relied on the latest observations by NASA’s Hubble Space Telescope and the European Space Agency’s Gaia star-surveying spacecraft to simulate the possible scenarios facing the Milky Way and next-door neighbor Andromeda. Both already collided with other galaxies in their ancient past and, according to many, seemed destined for a head-on crash.
Past theories put a collision between the two — resulting in a new elliptical galaxy dubbed Milkomeda — as probable if not inevitable. Some predictions had that happening within 5 billion years, if not sooner.
For this new study, the scientists relied on updated galaxy measurements to factor in the gravitational pull on the Milky Way's movement through the universe. They found that the effects of the neighboring Triangulum galaxy increased the likelihood of a merger between the Milky Way and Andromeda, while the Large Magellanic Cloud decreased those chances.
Despite lingering uncertainty over the position, motion and mass of all these galaxies, the scientists ended up with 50-50 odds of a collision within the next 10 billion years.
“The fate of our Milky Way galaxy is a subject of broad interest — not just to astronomers,” said Raja GuhaThakurta of the University of California, Santa Cruz, who was not involved in the study,
A full-on collision, he noted, would transform our home galaxy from a disk of stars seen as a milky band of diffuse light across the sky into a milky blob. A harmless flyby of the two galaxies could leave this stellar disk largely undisturbed, thus preserving our galaxy's name.
More work is needed before the Milky Way’s fate can be predicted with accuracy, according to the researchers. Further insight should help scientists better understand what's happening among galaxies even deeper in the cosmos.
While our galaxy’s fate remains highly uncertain, the sun’s future is “pretty much sealed," according to Sawala. “Of course, there is also a very significant chance that humanity will bring an end to itself still much before that, without any need for astrophysical help."
The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. The AP is solely responsible for all content.
In this combination of images from NASA/ESA shows three future scenarios for Milky Way & Andromeda encounter. Top left: Galaxies bypass at 1 million light-year separation. Top right: At 500,000 light-years, dark matter provides friction that brings galaxies to a close encounter. Bottom: A 100,000 light-year separation leads to a collision. (NASA/ESA via AP)
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran wants to negotiate with Washington after his threat to strike the Islamic Republic over its bloody crackdown on protesters, a move coming as activists said Monday the death toll in the nationwide demonstrations rose to at least 544.
Iran had no immediate reaction to the news, which came after the foreign minister of Oman — long an interlocutor between Washington and Tehran — traveled to Iran this weekend. It also remains unclear just what Iran could promise, particularly as Trump has set strict demands over its nuclear program and its ballistic missile arsenal, which Tehran insists is crucial for its national defense.
Meanwhile Monday, Iran called for pro-government demonstrators to head to the streets in support of the theocracy, a show of force after days of protests directly challenging the rule of 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iranian state television aired chants from the crowd, who shouted “Death to America!” and “Death to Israel!”
Trump and his national security team have been weighing a range of potential responses against Iran including cyberattacks and direct strikes by the U.S. or Israel, according to two people familiar with internal White House discussions who were not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity.
“The military is looking at it, and we’re looking at some very strong options,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One on Sunday night. Asked about Iran’s threats of retaliation, he said: “If they do that, we will hit them at levels that they’ve never been hit before.”
Trump said that his administration was in talks to set up a meeting with Tehran, but cautioned that he may have to act first as reports of the death toll in Iran mount and the government continues to arrest protesters.
“I think they’re tired of being beat up by the United States,” Trump said. “Iran wants to negotiate.”
He added: “The meeting is being set up, but we may have to act because of what’s happening before the meeting. But a meeting is being set up. Iran called, they want to negotiate.”
Iran through country's parliamentary speaker warned Sunday that the U.S. military and Israel would be “legitimate targets” if America uses force to protect demonstrators.
More than 10,600 people also have been detained over the two weeks of protests, said the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency, which has been accurate in previous unrest in recent years and gave the death toll. It relies on supporters in Iran crosschecking information. It said 496 of the dead were protesters and 48 were with security forces.
With the internet down in Iran and phone lines cut off, gauging the demonstrations from abroad has grown more difficult. The Associated Press has been unable to independently assess the toll. Iran’s government has not offered overall casualty figures.
Those abroad fear the information blackout is emboldening hard-liners within Iran’s security services to launch a bloody crackdown. Protesters flooded the streets in the country’s capital and its second-largest city on Saturday night into Sunday morning. Online videos purported to show more demonstrations Sunday night into Monday, with a Tehran official acknowledging them in state media.
In Tehran, a witness told the AP that the streets of the capital empty at the sunset call to prayers each night. By the Isha, or nighttime prayer, the streets are deserted.
Part of that stems from the fear of getting caught in the crackdown. Police sent the public a text message that warned: “Given the presence of terrorist groups and armed individuals in some gatherings last night and their plans to cause death, and the firm decision to not tolerate any appeasement and to deal decisively with the rioters, families are strongly advised to take care of their youth and teenagers.”
Another text, which claimed to come from the intelligence arm of the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, also directly warned people not to take part in demonstrations.
“Dear parents, in view of the enemy’s plan to increase the level of naked violence and the decision to kill people, ... refrain from being on the streets and gathering in places involved in violence, and inform your children about the consequences of cooperating with terrorist mercenaries, which is an example of treason against the country,” the text warned.
The witness spoke to the AP on condition of anonymity due to the ongoing crackdown.
The demonstrations began Dec. 28 over the collapse of the Iranian rial currency, which trades at over 1.4 million to $1, as the country’s economy is squeezed by international sanctions in part levied over its nuclear program. The protests intensified and grew into calls directly challenging Iran’s theocracy.
Nikhinson reported from aboard Air Force One.
In this frame grab from video obtained by the AP outside Iran, a masked demonstrator holds a picture of Iran's Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi during a protest in Tehran, Iran, Friday, January. 9, 2026. (UGC via AP)
In this frame grab from footage circulating on social media from Iran shows protesters taking to the streets despite an intensifying crackdown as the Islamic Republic remains cut off from the rest of the world in Tehran, Iran, Friday, Jan. 9, 2026.(UGC via AP)
In this frame grab from footage circulating on social media from Iran showed protesters once again taking to the streets of Tehran despite an intensifying crackdown as the Islamic Republic remains cut off from the rest of the world in Tehran, Iran, Saturday Jan. 10, 2026. (UGC via AP)
