J.J. Spaun weathers the worst of wet Oakmont to win US Open

OAKMONT, Pa. (AP) — J.J. Spaun endured the toughest test in golf on the toughest course in America in the worst kind of conditions. And then he turned this miserable, wet Sunday at Oakmont into a finish as memorable as any in the U.S. Open.

The champion not many expected delivered two shots no one will forget.

First came his driver on the 314-yard 17th hole onto the green for a two-putt birdie that gave him the lead. Then, needing two putts from 65 feet on the 18th to win, he finished his storybook Open by holing the longest putt all week at Oakmont for birdie and a 2-over 72.

For all the mess Oakmont became in a series of downpours, for all the bad breaks and bad lies and bad shots that cost so many contenders, Spaun overcame a start that would have ended hopes of more seasoned players and weathered the pressure to claim his greatest prize.

“I never thought I would be here holding this trophy,” said Spaun, who finished last year at No. 119 in the world and moved up to No. 8 with his U.S. Open victory. "I always had aspirations and dreams. I never knew what my ceiling was. I’m just trying to be the best golfer I can be.

“I'm happy to display that here at Oakmont.”

He finished at 1-under 279, the sole survivor to par, and won by two shots over Robert MacIntyre of Scotland, who watched the finish from a scoring room and could only applaud the stunning conclusion.

Five players shared the lead with an hour to go. Four players were still tied as the U.S. Open made its way to the final four holes that frustrated Sam Burns and Tyrrell Hatton, and crushed the hopes of Adam Scott and Carlos Ortiz.

The last man standing was Spaun, the 34-year-old Californian with an eerie resemblance to the late Pittsburgh Steelers great Franco Harris.

Never mind that Spaun lacked the pedigree of so many players groomed in elite competition, that he had only one PGA Tour title until Sunday, was playing in only his second U.S. Open and had never cracked the top 20 in his previous eight majors.

The ending was magical. The road leading to his U.S. Open title was hard work and resiliency, especially Sunday. One shot behind to start the final round, he had five bogeys in six holes, including a shot that hit the pin on No. 2 and caromed 35 yards back into the fairway, turning birdie into a bogey.

“It felt like as bad as things were going, I just still tried to just commit to every shot. I tried to just continue to dig deep. I’ve been doing it my whole life,” Spaun said. “I think that’s been the biggest difference this year has been being able to do that. Fortunately, I dug very deep on the back nine, and things went my way, and here we are with the trophy.”

It was calamity for so many others.

Burns had a two-shot lead going to the 11th tee, made a double bogey from a divot in the first cut on No. 11 and from a lie in the fairway on No. 15 so wet he thought he deserved relief. He shot 78.

“It’s a tough golf course, and I didn’t have my best stuff, and clearly it showed,” he said.

Scott, trying to become the first player to go more than 11 years between major titles, was tied for the lead with five holes to play. One of the best drivers could no longer find the fairway. He played them in 5 over and shot 79.

“I missed the fairway. I hadn’t done that all week really. Then I did, and I paid the price and lost a lot of shots out there,” Scott said.

Ortiz and Hatton also slashed away in slushy lies, all making mistakes that cost them a chance to survive this beast of day.

The rain that put Oakmont on the edge of being unplayable might have saved Spaun.

He was four shots behind and facing the tough ninth hole. And then came a rain delay of 1 hour, 37 minutes.

“The weather delay changed the whole vibe of the day,” Spaun said.

Remarkably, he made only one bogey the rest of the way.

But oh, that finish.

MacIntyre, the 28-year-old from Oban toughened by the Scottish game of Shinty, became the new target. He also struggled at the start and fell nine shots behind at one point. But he birdied the 17th and split the fairway on the 18th for a key par, a 68 and the clubhouse lead.

Three groups later, Spaun delivered what looked like the winner on the 17th, a powerful fade that rolled onto the green like a putt and settled 18 feet behind the cup.

On the final putt, he was helped by Viktor Hovland being on the same line and going first. Spaun rapped it through the soaked turf, walked to the left to watch it break right toward the hole and watched it dropped as thousands of rain-soaked spectators erupted.

He raised both arms and tossed his putter, jumping into the arms of caddie Mark Carens.

The celebration carried into those who lost the battle.

Hatton was talking with reporters, bemoaning a bad break on the 17th ended his chances of winning. He watched the Spaun's putt and it brightened his mood.

“Unbelievable. What a putt to win. That’s incredible,” he said. “I’m sad about how I finished, but I’m very happy for J.J. To win a major in that fashion is amazing.”

Hovland, who shot 73 to finish third, saw it all — the putt at the end, the bogeys at the start.

“After his start, it just looked like he was out of it immediately,” Hovland said. "Everyone came back to the pack. I wasn’t expecting that really. I thought I had to shoot maybe 3-under par today to have a good chance, but obviously the conditions got really, really tough, and this golf course is just a beast.”

Hatton (72) and Ortiz (73), both part of LIV Golf and in serious contention at a major for the first time, tied for fourth along with Cameron Young (70). The consolation for Ortiz was getting into the Masters next year.

Scottie Scheffler, 10 shots behind early in the final round, was somehow still part of the conversation on the back nine. But he missed far too many birdie chances even three-putting from 12 feet no the 11th hole. The world's No. 1 player finished with a 70 to tie for seventh with Jon Rahm (67) and Burns, his best friend who will feel the sting.

He had a double bogey by missing the green into a bad lie on the slope of a bunker. He missed a pair of 6-foot birdie putts to seize control. And when he made a mess of the 15th for another double bogey.

Through it all, Spaun emerged as a U.S. Open champion hardly anyone saw coming — not at the start of the year, not at the start of the round.

AP golf: https://apnews.com/hub/golf

J.J. Spaun celebrates after sinking a birdie putt to win the U.S. Open golf tournament at Oakmont Country Club Sunday, June 15, 2025, in Oakmont, Pa. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

J.J. Spaun celebrates with the trophy after winning the U.S. Open golf tournament at Oakmont Country Club Sunday, June 15, 2025, in Oakmont, Pa. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

Tyrrell Hatton, of England, reacts after hitting his ball into the rough on the 17th hole during the final round of the U.S. Open golf tournament at Oakmont Country Club Sunday, June 15, 2025, in Oakmont, Pa. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)

Sam Burns reacts to a missed putt on the 14th hole during the final round of the U.S. Open golf tournament at Oakmont Country Club Sunday, June 15, 2025, in Oakmont, Pa. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)

Robert MacIntyre, of Scotland, reacts to his birdie putt on the 14th hole during the final round of the U.S. Open golf tournament at Oakmont Country Club Sunday, June 15, 2025, in Oakmont, Pa. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)

J.J. Spaun celebrates making a birdie putt on the 18th hole during the final round of the U.S. Open golf tournament at Oakmont Country Club Sunday, June 15, 2025, in Oakmont, Pa. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

J.J. Spaun celebrates making a birdie putt on the 18th hole during the final round of the U.S. Open golf tournament at Oakmont Country Club Sunday, June 15, 2025, in Oakmont, Pa. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

Clouds hang overhead as a sign warns of the potential for severe weather during the final round of the U.S. Open golf tournament at Oakmont Country Club Sunday, June 15, 2025, in Oakmont, Pa. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

Sam Burns walks down the sixth fairway during the final round of the U.S. Open golf tournament at Oakmont Country Club Sunday, June 15, 2025, in Oakmont, Pa. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

Fans wait out a weather delay in the final round of the U.S. Open golf tournament at Oakmont Country Club Sunday, June 15, 2025, in Oakmont, Pa. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)

Water pools on the course during a rain delay in the final round of the U.S. Open golf tournament at Oakmont Country Club Sunday, June 15, 2025, in Oakmont, Pa. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

Grounds keepers clear water from the course during a weather delay in the final round of the U.S. Open golf tournament at Oakmont Country Club Sunday, June 15, 2025, in Oakmont, Pa. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

Prediction markets let people wager on anything from a basketball game to the outcome of a presidential election — and recently, the downfall of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

The latter is drawing renewed scrutiny into this murky world of speculative, 24/7 transactions. Last week, an anonymous trader pocketed more than $400,000 after betting that Maduro would soon be out of office.

The bulk of the trader’s bids on the platform Polymarket were made mere hours before President Donald Trump announced the surprise nighttime raid that led to Maduro’s capture, fueling online suspicions of potential insider trading because of the timing of the wagers and the trader’s narrow activity on the platform. Others argued that the risk of getting caught was too big, and that previous speculation about Maduro’s future could have led to such transactions.

Polymarket did not respond to requests for comment.

The commercial use of prediction markets has skyrocketed in recent years, opening the door for people to wage their money on the likelihood of a growing list of future events. But despite some eye-catching windfalls, traders still lose money everyday. And in terms of government oversight in the U.S., the trades are categorized differently than traditional forms of gambling — raising questions about transparency and risk.

Here's what we know:

The scope of topics involved in prediction markets can range immensely — from escalation in geopolitical conflicts, to pop culture moments and even the fate of conspiracy theories. Recently, there’s been a surge of wages on elections and sports games. But some users have also bet millions on things like a rumored — and ultimately unrealized — “secret finale” for the Netflix’s “Stranger Things,” whether the U.S. government will confirm the existence of extraterrestrial life and how much billionaire Elon Musk might post on social media this month.

In industry-speak, what someone buys or sells in a prediction market is called an “event contract.” They're typically advertised as “yes” or “no” wagers. And the price of one fluctuates between $0 and $1, reflecting what traders are collectively willing to pay based on a 0% to 100% chance of whether they think an event will occur.

The more likely traders think an event will occur, the more expensive that contract will become. And as those odds change over time, users can cash out early to make incremental profits, or try to avoid higher losses on what they’ve already invested.

Proponents of prediction markets argue putting money on the line leads to better forecasts. Experts like Koleman Strumpf, an economics professor at Wake Forest University, think there’s value in monitoring these platforms for potential news — pointing to prediction markets’ past success with some election outcomes, including the 2024 presidential race.

Still, it's never a “crystal ball,” he noted, and prediction markets can be wrong, too.

Who is behind all of the trading is also pretty murky. While the companies running the platforms collect personal information of their users in order to verify identities and payments, most people can trade under anonymous pseudonyms online — making it difficult for the public to know who is profiting off many event contracts. In theory, people investing their money may be closely following certain events, but others could just be randomly guessing.

Critics stress that the ease and speed of joining these 24/7 wagers leads to financial losses everyday, particularly harming users who may already struggle with gambling. The space also broadens possibilities for potential insider trading.

Polymarket is one of the largest prediction markets in the world, where its users can fund event contracts through cryptocurrency, debit or credit cards and bank transfers.

Restrictions vary by country, but in the U.S., the reach of these markets has expanded rapidly over recent years, coinciding with shifting policies out of Washington. Former President Joe Biden was aggressive in cracking down on prediction markets and following a 2022 settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Polymarket was barred from operating in the country.

That changed under Trump late last year, when Polymarket announced it would be returning to the U.S. after receiving clearance from the commission. American-based users can now join a platform “waitlist.”

Meanwhile, Polymarket’s top competitor, Kalshi, has been a federally-regulated exchange since 2020. The platform offers similar ways to buy and sell event contracts as Polymarket — and it currently allows event contracts on elections and sports nationwide. Kalshi won court approval just weeks before the 2024 election to let Americans put money on upcoming political races and began to host sports trading about a year ago.

The space is now crowded with other big names. Sports betting giants DraftKings and FanDuel both launched prediction platforms last month. Online broker Robinhood is widening its own offerings. Trump’s social media site Truth Social has also promised to offer an in-platform prediction market through a partnership with Crypto.com — and one of the president’s sons, Donald Trump Jr., holds advisory roles at both Polymarket and Kalshi.

“The train has left the station on these event contracts, they’re not going away,” said Melinda Roth, a visiting associate professor at Washington and Lee University’s School of Law.

Because they’re positioned as selling event contracts, prediction markets are regulated by the CFTC. That means they can avoid state-level restrictions or bans in place for traditional gambling and sports betting today.

“It’s a huge loophole,” said Karl Lockhart, an assistant professor of law at DePaul University who has studied this space. “You just have to comply with one set of regulations, rather than (rules from) each state around the country.”

Sports betting is taking center stage. There are a handful of big states — like California and Texas, for example — where sports betting is still illegal, but people can now wager on games, athlete trades and more through event contracts.

A growing number of states and tribes are suing to stop this. And lawyers expect litigation to eventually reach the U.S. Supreme Court, as added regulations from the Trump administration seem unlikely.

Federal law bars event contracts related to gaming as well as war, terrorism and assassinations, Roth said, which could put some prediction market trades on shaky ground, at least in the U.S. But users might still find ways to buy certain contracts while traveling abroad or connecting to different VPNs.

Whether the CFTC will take any of that on has yet to be seen. But the agency, which did not respond to request for comment, has already taken steps away from enforcement.

Despite overseeing trillions of dollars for the overall U.S. derivatives market, the CFTC is also much smaller than the Securities and Exchange Commission. And at the same time event contracts are growing rapidly on prediction market platforms, there have been additional cuts to the CFTC's workforce and a wave of leadership departures under Trump's second term. Only one of five commissioner slots operating the agency is currently filled.

Still, other lawmakers calling for a stronger crack down on potential insider trading in prediction markets — particularly following suspicion around last week’s Maduro trade on Polymarket. On Friday, Democratic Rep. Ritchie Torres introduced a bill aimed at curbing government employees involvement in politically-related event contracts.

The bill has already gotten support from Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour — who on LinkedIn maintained that insider trading has always been banned on his company's platform but that more needs to be done to crack down on unregulated prediction markets.

Polymarket prediction market website is displayed on a computer screen Friday, Jan. 9, 2026, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Wally Santana)

FILE - In this March 12, 2020, file photo, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro gives a press conference at the Miraflores presidential palace in Caracas, Venezuela. (AP Photo/Matias Delacroix, File)