Oil sells off as traders calmly look beyond the bombs in the Middle East

News

Oil sells off as traders calmly look beyond the bombs in the Middle East

2025-06-24 14:08 Last Updated At：14:20

NEW YORK (AP) — If oil prices are any measure, Iran just flinched.

The price of oil tumbled Monday afternoon in an historical move as traders bet that Iran's decision to bomb a U.S. base in Qatar signaled it was not planning to do the one thing that could really hurt America: Shut down the flow of oil by attacking crude shipments.

“When the response comes and it is muted, oil drops,” said Tom Kloza, chief market strategist at consultancy Turner Mason & Co, calling the limited Iran response far short of what many traders feared. “This rivals some of the historic selloffs.”

There's still plenty Iran could do to push prices back up, and the markets could be getting it all wrong, But oil analysts say there are plenty of reasons fear has receded.

Adding to the odds that prices will settle, President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Iran had agreed to a complete ceasefire, though the situation remained unclear.

The price of West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, fell 7.2% to $68.51 per barrel in regular trading on Monday after Iran announced a missile attack on Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which the U.S. military uses. Traders were relieved because Iran said it had matched the number of bombs dropped by the U.S. on Iranian nuclear sites this weekend, a possible sign of a desire to deescalate the conflict.

The price of oil fell further after Trump's announcement of a “complete and total ceasefire” to be phased in over 24 hours. Oil fell almost 4% to $65.84 a barrel early Tuesday, and is now below where it was before fighting between Iran and Israel began over a week ago, when a barrel of U.S. crude was just above $68.

Markets were initially nervous Sunday as oil futures opened for trading. The price of Brent crude, the international standard, had jumped 4% as traders anxiously watched the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway on Iran's southern border that legislators in Tehran were demanding be closed in retaliation. That would have walloped the global economy because much of world’s crude and liquified gas passes through it.

Brent crude was trading at $68.06 per barrel, down 3.5%, early Tuesday.

That's good news for Trump, who wants the Federal Reserve to stop worrying about inflation and start cutting interest rates. It's also good for motorists this summer if the trend holds.

Drivers were already paying higher prices at the pump before the U.S. attack. The average price nationwide is $3.18 per gallon, according to GasBuddy surveys, about 10 cents more than two weeks ago.

Some traders doubted Iran would try to close the Strait of Hormuz even before its limited attack Monday. Much of country's own crude passes through the waterway — 1.5 million barrels a day — and oil is a big revenue generator for the country that they would be loath to disrupt.

“It's a silly notion that the Iranians would look to do that,” said Kloza. “I’ve been covering oil for 50 years and we've never seen the Strait of Hormuz compromised.”

Asked about the prospect of a shutdown on NBC's “Meet the Press” Sunday, Vice President J.D. Vance put it more simply: “I think that would be suicidal.”

At current oil prices, Tehran receives roughly $40 billion in revenue annually from oil transiting the same waters. That is a tenth of what the entire of country produces in goods and services.

Andy Lipow, an Houston based oil analyst, says history suggests Iran won’t disrupt its own flow of oil, but that countries, like people, don’t always act in their economic interests.

“The question for the oil markets is, ‘Is his time different?’,” he said. “You might have an emotional decision.”

He notes also that Iran has other ways to push oil higher without completely closing off the waterway.

Iran could jam navigational devices, slowing transit, or drop mines in the water, forcing the U.S. Navy to do more escorts. Or it could bomb a tanker, he said, sending the premiums that shippers need to pay insurers sky high.

If traders are wrong and oil shoots back up, the impact could be widely felt.

A surge in oil prices would come at a bad time. Trump insists that the inflation scare is largely over, but many economists think higher prices are still coming because the full impact of his tariffs are only now beginning to show up on everyday goods.

Trump is clearly aware things could change fast.

“To The Department of Energy: DRILL, BABY, DRILL!!! And I mean NOW!!!” he wrote on Truth Social Monday, adding. “EVERYONE, KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN. I’M WATCHING!”

Statuesque Congo fan 'Lumumba' stands above all others at Africa Cup

CASABLANCA, Morocco (AP) — One fan is standing tall above all others at the Africa Cup of Nations.

He has even brought a pedestal to make sure.

Congo supporter Michel Nkuka Mboladinga has become a social media star for posing as a statue of the country’s assassinated independence hero Patrice Lumumba during games.

Lumumba Vea, as the sharply dressed supporter is known for his resemblance to the slain leader, raises his right arm and stays perfectly still, adopting the position of the Lumumba memorial statue in Kinshasa, and holds the pose for the entirety of games.

“I remain still to give strength to the team, to give energy to the players,” Nkuka Mboladinga told The Associated Press during an interview in his hotel room in Casablanca this week.

He said it was his last before the team plays Algeria in Rabat on Tuesday. Nkuka Mboladinga was clearly exhausted from relentless media attention after Congo’s first three games in the tournament, and exasperated after it seemed every media outlet had spelled his name wrong.

But he was grateful for the attention and pleased to bring Lumumba’s support to the team.

“He’s the one who gave us the freedom to express ourselves,” Nkuka Mboladinga said of the Congolese leader. “He sacrificed his life for us, to give us liberty. So he’s a hero for us, Lumumba is a spirit for us, he’s a model for us.”

Lumumba is widely hailed as the nationalist activist who helped end Belgium’s colonial rule over Congo in 1960. He became the new independent country’s first prime minister and was seen as one of Africa’s most promising new leaders, but he was killed within a year during a struggle against a Belgian-backed secessionist movement in the mineral-rich Katanga region.

Questions have persisted over how complicit Belgium and the United States may have been in his death. A Belgian parliamentary probe later determined the government was “morally responsible” for Lumumba’s death. A U.S. Senate committee found in 1975 that the CIA had hatched a separate, failed plan to kill the Congolese leader.

For many in Congo, Lumumba remains a symbol of the positive developments the country could have achieved after its independence. Instead, it became mired in decades of dictatorship that drained its vast mineral riches.

“He’s like family,” Nkuka Mboladinga said of the visionary leader.

Nkuka Mboladinga rehearses before each match by staying still for 45 to 50 minutes at a time. With Congo through to the knockout round, he also faces the prospect of having to stay in statue mode through extra time and penalties, when the fans around him are anything but.

“It’s difficult,” he acknowledged about staying still while supporters dance around and behind him. “Everyone plays their part, they play their role and I am in mine.”

He hasn’t met the players yet but has heard they appreciate his efforts.

“The players know me, but I haven’t spoken with them personally. They’re very happy with what I’m doing,” he said.

AP at the Africa Cup: https://apnews.com/hub/africa-cup-of-nations