Japan's minority government faces a tough test in the upper house election

TOKYO (AP) — Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba faces a tough test in an upper house election later this month as his minority government struggles after its major defeat in last year's snap election.

Ishiba has survived so far, though he had to make some concessions to the opposition — an unusual step for the Liberal Democratic Party that has dominated Japan’s postwar politics.

Official campaigning begins Thursday for the July 20 vote for the upper house, the less powerful of Japan’s two parliamentary chambers.

Ishiba has modest goals for the election and the opposition is divided, so the outcome is unlikely to force an immediate change of government. But it will be a tough test on Ishiba’s handling of economic woes at home and global challenges such as U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff war.

“I will defend Japan’s national interest at all cost,” Ishiba said Wednesday, reiterating his determination to not make any concession on safety or other areas in the tariff negotiations despite Trump’s new threat. “Japan has its own national interest and I will do my utmost to protect it.”

Ishiba’s goal is a simple majority. Half of the 248 seats for six-year terms in the upper house are being decided, and the LDP and its junior coalition partner Komeito would need to win 50 combined. That's on top of their 75 seats that are not being contested in this election.

That would be a retreat from their current number of 141 seats. “It won't be easy. But in this difficult situation, it is a must-attain goal," Ishiba said Wednesday, without saying how he would take responsibility if he doesn't meet his goal.

A poor result in the upper house election would not immediately cause a change of government but could trigger a LDP leadership change or regrouping of a governing coalition.

The LDP was defeated in the previous election largely because many of its usual supporters voted for centrist to conservative opposition groups to punish the governing party over its corruption scandals. The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, or CDPJ, and the surging Democratic Party for the People, or DPP, as well as an emerging right-wing populist Sanseito have significantly gained ground.

But the opposition groups are too fractured to find a common platform to gain voter support as a viable alternative.

When Ishiba lost big in October, there was speculation of a trilateral coalition government with the DPP or another conservative Japan Innovation Party, but they have cooperated only on certain legislation. A loss of majority in the upper house by Ishiba’s party could reignite momentum for coalition regroupings.

Opposition CDPJ leader Yoshihiko Noda has said a loss of majority in both houses would help opposition parties to push policies blocked by the LDP, such as consumption tax cuts.

Measures to mitigate soaring prices, dwindling wages and burdens of social security payment are the top focus of frustrated voters hit by economic woes.

Ishiba’s handling of the recent rice panic will be tested. Rice prices have doubled since last year due to supply shortages, complex distribution systems and other reasons related to Japan’s farming policies, adding to consumer concern and frustration.

The rice crisis cost Ishiba's government one farm minister, but the replacement, Shinjiro Koizumi, took rapid and bold measures including the unprecedented release of emergency reserves that brought the staple back to normal prices, just in time for the election.

In another setback, Trump complained about little progress in trade negotiations with Ishiba's government, saying Japan is not only not buying automobiles, but is also not buying enough U.S. rice despite its rice shortage.

While NATO leaders recently adopted a massive hike in defense spending after pressure from Trump, Ishiba said Japan should make its own decision on any such spending.

Ishiba’s party adopted a campaign platform that included cash payouts to cushion the impact of inflation and dwindling wages, which opposition parties criticized as pork. The main opposition CDPJ calls for increased welfare spending, while DPP focuses on wage increase.

Ishiba also needs to offset consumer worries over uncertainty in the Middle East and its impact on energy costs.

Leaders of eight political parties, from left to right, Komeito Chief Representative Tetsuo Saito, Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan leader Yoshihiko Noda, Japan's Prime Minister and Liberal Democratic Party leader Shigeru Ishiba, Japan Innovation Party Co-Representative Hirofumi Yoshimura and Democratic Party For the People Representative Yuichiro Tamaki pose before a debate at the Japan National Press Club in Tokyo, Japan, on July 2, 2025. (Tomohiro Ohsumi/Pool Photo via AP)

Yuichiro Tamaki, leader of Democratic Party for the People, speaks during a convention held by Reiwa Rincho in Tokyo, June 29, 2025.(Kyodo News via AP)

Tetsuo Saito, chief representative of the Komeito speaks during a convention held by Reiwa Rincho group in Tokyo, on June 29, 2025.(Kyodo News via AP)

Japan's Prime Minister and president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Shigeru Ishiba speaks during a convention held by Reiwa Rincho group in Tokyo, June 29, 2025.(Kyodo News via AP)

Leaders of eight political parties, from left to right, Komeito Chief Representative Tetsuo Saito, Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan leader Yoshihiko Noda, Japan's Prime Minister and Liberal Democratic Party leader Shigeru Ishiba, Japan Innovation Party Co-Representative Hirofumi Yoshimura and Democratic Party For the People Representative Yuichiro Tamaki pose before a debate at the Japan National Press Club in Tokyo, Japan, Wednesday, July 2, 2025. (Tomohiro Ohsumi/Pool Photo via AP)

A Ukrainian drone strike killed one person and wounded three others in the Russian city of Voronezh, local officials said Sunday.

A young woman died overnight in a hospital intensive care unit after debris from a drone fell on a house during the attack on Saturday, regional Gov. Alexander Gusev said on Telegram.

Three other people were wounded and more than 10 apartment buildings, private houses and a high school were damaged, he said, adding that air defenses shot down 17 drones over Voronezh. The city is home to just over 1 million people and lies some 250 kilometers (155 miles) from the Ukrainian border.

The attack came the day after Russia bombarded Ukraine with hundreds of drones and dozens of missiles overnight into Friday, killing at least four people in the capital Kyiv, according to Ukrainian officials.

For only the second time in the nearly four-year war, Russia used a powerful new hypersonic missile that struck western Ukraine in a clear warning to Kyiv and NATO.

The intense barrage and the launch of the nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile followed reports of major progress in talks between Ukraine and its allies on how to defend the country from further aggression by Moscow if a U.S.-led peace deal is struck.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Saturday in his nightly address that Ukrainian negotiators “continue to communicate with the American side.”

Chief negotiator Rustem Umerov was in contact with U.S. partners Saturday, he said.

Separately, Ukraine’s General Staff said Russia targeted Ukraine with 154 drones overnight into Sunday and 125 were shot down.

Follow the AP’s coverage of the war in Ukraine at https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine

This photo provided by the Ukrainian Security Service on Friday, Jan. 9, 2026, shows a fragment believed to be a part of a Russian Oreshnik intermediate range hypersonic ballistic missile that hit the Lviv region. (Ukrainian Security Service via AP)

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy, second left, listens to British Defense Secretary John Healey during their meeting in Kyiv, Ukraine, Friday, Jan. 9, 2026. (AP Photo/Danylo Antoniuk)