WASHINGTON (AP) — An analysis finds a critical group of U.S. employers would face a direct cost of $82.3 billion from President Donald Trump’s current tariff plans, a sum that could potentially be managed through price hikes, layoffs, hiring freezes or lower profit margins.
The analysis by the JPMorganChase Institute is among the first to measure the direct costs created by the import taxes on businesses with $10 million to $1 billion in annual revenue, a category including roughly a third of private-sector U.S. workers. These companies are more dependent than other businesses on imports from China, India and Thailand — and the retail and wholesale sectors would be especially vulnerable to the import taxes being levied by the Republican president.
The findings show clear trade-offs from Trump’s import taxes, contradicting his claims foreign manufacturers would absorb the costs of the tariffs instead of U.S. companies that rely on imports. While the tariffs launched under Trump have yet to boost overall inflation, large companies such as Amazon, Costco, Walmart and Williams-Sonoma delayed the potential reckoning by building up their inventories before the taxes could be imposed.
The analysis comes just ahead of the July 9 deadline by Trump to formally set the tariff rates on goods from dozens of countries. Trump imposed that deadline after the financial markets panicked in response to his April tariff announcements, prompting him to schedule a 90-day negotiating period when most imports faced a 10% baseline tariff. China, Mexico and Canada face higher rates, and there are separate 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum.
Had the initial April 2 tariffs stayed in place, the companies in the JPMorganChase Institute analysis would've faced additional direct costs of $187.6 billion. Under the current rates, the $82.3 billion would be equivalent on average to $2,080 per employee, or 3.1% of the average annual payroll. Those averages include firms that don't import goods and those that do.
Asked Tuesday how trade talks are faring, Trump said simply: “Everything’s going well.”
The president has indicated he'll set tariff rates given the logistical challenge of negotiating with so many nations. As the 90-day period comes to a close, only the United Kingdom has signed a trade framework with the Trump administration. Trump announced Wednesday he'd reached a deal with Vietnam, while India has signaled it's close to agreeing on a trade framework.
Trump said on his social media site Vietnam will pay the U.S. a 20% tariff on all goods sent “into our Territory” and a 40% tariff on any transshipping, which usually means exports that come from China but pass through Vietnam to dodge tariffs on Chinese goods.
In return, Vietnam will grant the U.S. “TOTAL ACCESS” to its market for trade, Trump said, meaning “we will be able to sell our product into Vietnam at ZERO Tariff.” He added he thinks SUVs “will be a wonderful addition to the various product lines within Vietnam.”
There's a growing body of evidence suggesting more inflation could surface. The investment bank Goldman Sachs said in a report it expects companies to pass 60% of their tariff costs onto consumers. The Atlanta Federal Reserve has used its survey of businesses’ inflation expectations to say companies could on average pass along roughly half their costs from a 10% tariff or a 25% tariff without reducing consumer demand.
The JPMorganChase Institute findings suggest the tariffs could cause some domestic manufacturers to strengthen their roles as suppliers of goods. But it noted companies need to plan for a range of possible outcomes and wholesalers and retailers already operate on such low profit margins they might need to spread the tariffs' costs to their customers.
The outlook for tariffs remains highly uncertain. Trump had stopped negotiations with Canada, only to restart them after the country dropped its plan to tax digital services. He similarly on Monday threatened more tariffs on Japan unless it buys more rice from the U.S.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Fox News Channel’s “Fox & Friends” on Tuesday the concessions from the trade talks have impressed career officials at the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative and other agencies.
The treasury secretary said the Trump administration plans to discuss the contours of trade deals next week, prioritizing the tax cuts package passed on Tuesday by the Republican majority in the Senate. Trump has set a Friday deadline for passage of the multitrillion-dollar package, the costs of which the president hopes to offset with tariff revenues.
Follow the AP's coverage of President Donald Trump at https://apnews.com/hub/donald-trump.
FILE - A shopper selects a carton of 18 Large Grade A eggs from a cooler in a Costco Warehouse in Cranberry, Pa., Tuesday, Jan. 28, 2025. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar, File)
FILE - A shopping cart filled with groceries sits in an aisle at an Asian grocery store in Rowland Heights, Calif., Thursday, April 3, 2025. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong, File)
ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. (AP) — Buffalo Bills fans arrived early and lingered long after the game ended to bid what could be farewell to their long-time home stadium filled with 53 years of memories — and often piles of snow.
After singing along together to The Killers' “Mr. Brightside” in the closing minutes of a 35-8 victory against the New York Jets, most everyone in the crowd of 70,944 remained in their seats to bask in the glow of fireworks as Louis Armstrong's "What A Wonderful World” played over the stadium speakers.
Several players stopped in the end zone to watch a retrospective video, with the Buffalo-based Goo Goo Dolls’ “Iris” as the soundtrack while fans recorded selfie videos of the celebratory scene. Offensive lineman Alec Anderson even jumped into the crowd to pose for pictures before leaving the field.
With the Bills (12-5), the AFC's 6th seed, opening the playoffs at Jacksonville in the wild-card round next week, there's but a slim chance they'll play at their old home again. Next season, Buffalo is set to move into its new $1.2 billion facility being built across the street.
The farewell game evoked “a lifetime of memories,” said Therese Forton-Barnes, selected the team’s Fan of the Year, before the Bills kicked of their regular-season finale. “In our culture that we know and love, we can bond together from that experience. Our love for this team, our love for this city, have branched from those roots.”
Forton-Barnes, a past president of the Greater Buffalo Sports Hall of Fame, attended Bills games as a child at the old War Memorial Stadium in downtown Buffalo, colloquially known as “The Rockpile.” She has been a season ticket holder since Jim Kelly joined the Bills in 1986 at what was then Rich Stadium, later renamed for the team’s founding owner Ralph Wilson, and then corporate sponsors New Era and Highmark.
“I’ve been to over 350 games,” she said. “Today we’re here to cherish and celebrate the past, present and future. We have so many memories that you can’t erase at Rich Stadium, The Ralph, and now Highmark. Forever we will hold these memories when we move across the street.”
There was a celebratory mood to the day, with fans arriving early. Cars lined Abbott Road some 90 minutes before the stadium lots opened for a game the Bills rested most of their starters, with a brisk wind blowing in off of nearby Lake Erie and with temperatures dipping into the low 20s.
And most were in their seats when Bills owner Terry Pegula thanked fans and stadium workers in a pregame address.
With Buffalo leading 21-0 at halftime, many fans stayed in their seats as Kelly and fellow Pro Football Hall of Famer Andre Reed addressed them from the field, and the team played a video message from 100-year-old Hall of Fame coach Marv Levy.
“The fans have been unbelievable,” said Jack Hofstetter, a ticket-taker since the stadium opened in 1973 who was presented with Super Bowl tickets before Sunday’s game by Highmark Blue Cross Blue Shield. “I was a kid making 8 bucks a game back in those days. I got to see all the sports, ushering in the stadium and taking tickets later on. All the memories, it’s been fantastic.”
Bud Light commemorated the stadium finale and Bills fan culture with the release of a special-edition beer brewed with melted snow shoveled out of the stadium earlier this season.
In what has become a winter tradition at the stadium, fans were hired to clear the stands after a lake-effect storm dropped more than a foot of snow on the region this week.
The few remaining shovelers were still present clearing the pathways and end zone stands of snow some five hours before kickoff. The new stadium won’t require as many shovelers, with the field heated and with more than two-thirds of the 60,000-plus seats covered by a curved roof overhang.
Fears of fans rushing the field were abated with large contingent of security personnel and backed by New York State troopers began lining the field during the final 2-minute warning.
Fans stayed in the stands, singing along to the music, with many lingering to take one last glimpse inside the stadium where the scoreboard broadcast one last message:
“Thank You, Bills Mafia.”
AP Sports Writer John Wawrow contributed.
AP NFL: https://apnews.com/hub/nfl
Fans watch a ceremony after the Buffalo Bills beat the New York Jets in the Bills' final regular-season NFL football home game in Highmark Stadium Sunday, Jan. 4, 2026, in Orchard Park, N.Y. (AP Photo/Adrian Kraus)
Buffalo Bills cornerback Tre'Davious White (27) remains on the field to watch a tribute video after the Bills beat the New York Jets in the Bills' final regular-season NFL football home game in Highmark Stadium Sunday, Jan. 4, 2026, in Orchard Park, N.Y.(AP Photo/Adrian Kraus)
Fans watch a ceremony after the Buffalo Bills beat the New York Jets in the Bills' final regular-season NFL football home game in Highmark Stadium Sunday, Jan. 4, 2026, in Orchard Park, N.Y. (AP Photo/Adrian Kraus)
Fans celebrate after the Buffalo Bills scored a touchdown during the first half of an NFL football game against the New York Jets, Sunday, Jan. 4, 2026, in Orchard Park, N.Y. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)
Fans celebrate and throw snow in the stands after an NFL football game between the Buffalo Bills and the New York Jets, Sunday, Jan. 4, 2026, in Orchard Park, N.Y. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)
Aga Deters, right, and her husband Fred Deters, walk near Highmark Stadium before an NFL football game between the Buffalo Bills and the New York Jets, Sunday, Jan. 4, 2026, in Orchard Park, N.Y. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)
Michael Wygant shoves snow from a tunnel before an NFL football game between the Buffalo Bills and the New York Jets at Highmark Stadium, Sunday, Jan. 4, 2026, in Orchard Park, N.Y. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)
Buffalo Bills offensive tackle Alec Anderson (70) spikes the ball after running back Ty Johnson scored a touchdown against the New York Jets in the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Jan. 4, 2026, in Orchard Park, N.Y. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)
FILE - The existing Highmark Stadium, foreground, frames the construction on the new Highmark Stadium, upper right, which is scheduled to open with the 2026 season, shown before an NFL football game between the Buffalo Bills and the New England Patriots, Oct. 5, 2025, in Orchard Park, N.Y. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar, File)
Salt crew member Jim Earl sprinkles salt in the upper deck before an NFL football game between the Buffalo Bills and the New York Jets at Highmark Stadium, Sunday, Jan. 4, 2026, in Orchard Park, N.Y. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)
