Business expectations for the third quarter of 2025
The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released today (July 18) the results of the Quarterly Business Tendency Survey for the third quarter (Q3) of 2025.
Business Situation
For all surveyed sectors taken together, the proportion of respondents expecting their business situation to be better (10%) in Q3 2025 over the preceding quarter is lower than that expecting it to be worse (18%).
When compared with the results of the Q2 2025 survey round, the proportion of respondents expecting a better business situation in Q3 2025 is 10%, slightly higher than the corresponding proportion in Q2 2025 (9%). On the other hand, the proportion of respondents expecting a worse business situation in Q3 2025 is broadly the same as the corresponding proportion in Q2 2025 (18%).
Analysed by sector, respondents in quite a number of the surveyed sectors expect their business situation to decrease on balance in Q3 2025 as compared with Q2 2025. In particular, significantly more respondents in the transportation, storage and courier services sector expect their business situation to be worse in Q3 2025 as compared with Q2 2025.
The results of the survey should be interpreted with care. In this type of survey on expectations, the views collected in the survey are affected by the events in the community occurring around the time of enumeration, and it is difficult to establish precisely the extent to which respondents' perception of the future accords with the underlying trends. The enumeration period for this survey round was from June 3, 2025 to July 7, 2025.
Volume of Business / Output
Respondents in quite a number of the surveyed sectors expect their volume of business / output to decrease on balance in Q3 2025 as compared with Q2 2025. In particular, more respondents in the construction; transportation, storage and courier services; import/export trade and wholesale; accommodation and food services; and retail sectors expect their volume of construction output / business / sales to decrease in Q3 2025 over Q2 2025.
Employment
Respondents in quite a number of the surveyed sectors expect their employment to remain broadly unchanged in Q3 2025 as compared with Q2 2025. However, more respondents in the information and communications sector expect their employment to decrease in Q3 2025 over Q2 2025. In the real estate sector, on the other hand, more respondents expect their employment to increase, as compared to those expecting it to decrease.
Selling Price / Service Charge
Respondents in most of the surveyed sectors expect their selling prices / service charges to remain broadly unchanged in Q3 2025 as compared with Q2 2025. However, significantly more respondents in the construction sector expect their tender prices to go down in Q3 2025 over Q2 2025.
Commentary
A Government spokesman said that the overall near-term business outlook among large enterprises for the third quarter of 2025 was slightly better than the expectation for the previous quarter, while the hiring appetite remained stable.
Looking forward, the spokesman said that the ongoing uncertainty in the external environment would continue to affect the local business sentiment. Nonetheless, the resilient local economy and sustained steady growth in the Mainland economy should provide support. The Government will continue to monitor the situation closely.
Further Information
The survey gathers views on short-term business performance from the senior management of about 560 prominent establishments in various sectors in Hong Kong with a view to providing a quick reference, with minimum time lag, for predicting the short-term future economic performance of the local economy.
The survey covers 10 major sectors in Hong Kong, namely manufacturing; construction; import / export trade and wholesale; retail; accommodation and food services (mainly covering services rendered by hotels and restaurants); transportation, storage and courier services; information and communications; financing and insurance; real estate; and professional and business services sectors.
Views collected in the survey refer only to those of respondents on their own establishments rather than those on the respective sectors they are engaged in, and are limited to the expected direction of quarter-to-quarter change (e.g. "up", "same" or "down") but not the magnitude of change. In collecting views on the quarter-to-quarter changes, if the variable in question is subject to seasonal variations, respondents are asked to provide the expected changes after excluding the normal seasonal variations.
Survey results are generally presented as "net balance", i.e. the difference between the percentage of respondents choosing "up" and that choosing "down". The percentage distribution of respondents among various response categories (e.g. "up", "same" and "down") reflects how varied their business expectations are. The "net balance", with its appropriate sign, indicates the direction of expected change in the variable concerned. A positive sign indicates a likely upward trend while a negative sign indicates a likely downward trend. However, the magnitude of the "net balance" reflects only the prevalence of optimism or pessimism, but not the magnitude of expected change, since information relating to such magnitude is not collected in the survey.
Furthermore, owing to sample size constraint, care should be taken in interpreting survey results involving a small percentage (e.g. less than 10%) of respondents in individual sectors.
Chart 1 shows the views on expected changes in business situation for the period Q3 2024 to Q3 2025.
Table 1 shows the net balances of views on expectations in respect of different variables for Q3 2025.
The survey results are published in greater detail in the "Report on Quarterly Business Tendency Survey, Q3 2025". Users can browse and download the publication at the website of the C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/en/EIndexbySubject.html?pcode=B1110008&scode=300).
Users who have enquiries about the survey results may contact the Business Expectation Statistics Section of the C&SD (Tel: 3903 7263; E-mail: business-prospects@censtatd.gov.hk).
Source: AI-found images
CHP reminds public to take precautions against cold weather
The Centre for Health Protection (CHP) of the Department of Health (DH) today (January 3) reminded the public, particularly the elderly, people with chronic illnesses, outdoor workers, pregnant women, infants and children, to adopt appropriate measures to protect their health in view of the cold weather.
Photo source: reference image
Elderly and people with chronic illnesses
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A spokesman for the CHP said that in general, elderly people have less insulating fat, and their body temperature control mechanisms would be weaker. Their body may not respond appropriately to the cold weather. In addition, some senior persons may have decreased mobility, which can impair their ability to generate and conserve body heat.
Chronic illnesses, such as hypertension, diabetes or hypothyroidism, would lower their metabolic rate, subsequently causing their body to generate less heat. Besides, persons with chronic illnesses, such as chronic respiratory illnesses or cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, are vulnerable to disease aggravation due to cold weather.
The spokesman reminded the public, in particular the elderly and persons with chronic illnesses, to adopt the following preventive measures:
- Take note of the weather forecast. Wear warm clothing, including hats, scarves, gloves and socks, accordingly;
- Consume sufficient food to ensure adequate calorie intake;
- Perform regular exercise to facilitate blood circulation and heat production;
- Stay in a warm environment. Avoid going out in the morning and at night when the temperature is lower, and avoid prolonged outdoor exposure;
- Use heaters with care and maintain adequate indoor ventilation;
- Avoid alcoholic beverages. Drinking alcohol cannot keep you warm. Alcohol accelerates the loss of body heat through dilated blood vessels, resulting in chilling instead; and
- Seek medical advice if feeling unwell.
Infants, children and pregnant women
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Infants and young children are more susceptible to heat loss during the cold weather. The spokesman reminded parents that they should ensure babies are sufficiently warm, but it is also important to keep babies relatively lightly clothed to avoid overheating them. When children engage in outdoor activities, their clothing should be adjusted accordingly, and changed quickly if soaked. Infants, young children and pregnant women should also try to avoid going out in the morning and at night when the temperature is lower.
Parents should observe the following safety measures when putting their children to bed:
- Keep the room well ventilated and at a comfortable temperature;
- Always place babies on their backs to sleep. Leave their heads, faces and arms uncovered during sleep;
- Babies do not need pillows. Place babies on a firm and well-fitted mattress to sleep. Avoid soft objects, pillows and loose bedding;
- Let babies sleep in a cot placed near their parents' bed; and
- Maintain a smoke-free environment.
Outdoor workers
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Outdoor workers should take heed of the weather report and wear appropriate warm clothing for work. Clothing should be changed as soon as possible if soaked. When the Cold Weather Warning is in force, they should take appropriate precautions. They should take a break immediately and seek help and medical attention if feeling unwell.
General public
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In addition, many respiratory pathogens, including influenza and SARS-CoV-2, may have increasing activity and community transmission during winter. Seasonal influenza vaccination is recommended for all persons aged 6 months or above, except those with known contraindications. Persons at higher risk of getting influenza and its complications, including the elderly and children, should receive seasonal influenza vaccinations early. Please see details of the vaccination schemes on the CHP's website.
A person who gets influenza and COVID-19 at the same time may become more seriously ill and would have a higher risk of death. It is important for elderly persons, especially those residing in residential care homes, to receive both a seasonal influenza vaccination and a COVID-19 vaccination. They should also receive an additional booster against COVID-19 according to recommendations as soon as possible. The public should also maintain good personal and environmental hygiene against respiratory illnesses and note the following:
- Surgical masks can prevent transmission of respiratory viruses from ill persons. It is essential for persons who are symptomatic (even if having mild symptoms) to wear a surgical mask;
- Wear a surgical mask when taking public transport or staying in crowded places. It is important to wear a mask properly, including performing hand hygiene before wearing and after removing a mask;
- Avoid touching one's eyes, mouth and nose;
- Wash hands with liquid soap and water properly whenever possibly contaminated;
- When hands are not visibly soiled, clean them with 70 to 80 per cent alcohol-based handrub;
- Cover the mouth and nose with tissue paper when sneezing or coughing. Dispose of soiled tissue paper properly into a lidded rubbish bin and wash hands thoroughly afterwards;
- Maintain good indoor ventilation;
- When having respiratory symptoms, wear a surgical mask, refrain from work or attending classes at school, avoid going to crowded places and seek medical advice promptly; and
- Maintain a balanced diet, exercise regularly, take adequate rest, do not smoke and avoid overstress.
Food-borne diseases, particularly those linked to hotpot cuisine, are also common in cold weather. The following preventive measures should be taken:
- Wash hands before handling and consuming food;
- Do not patronise unlicensed vendors or those with poor hygienic standards while selecting food;
- Wash and cook all food thoroughly;
- Vegetables should be washed thoroughly in clean running water before cooking and consumption. When appropriate, scrub vegetables with hard surfaces with a clean brush to remove dirt and substances, including pesticide residues and contaminants, from surfaces and crevices;
- Shrimps should be fully cooked until the shells turn red and the flesh turns white and opaque;
- For shellfish such as scallops and geoduck, scrub the shells thoroughly and remove internal organs;
- Do not eat any undercooked freshwater aquatic products. To ensure that the food is thoroughly cooked, the centre of the food should reach a temperature of at least 75 degrees Celsius so as to destroy pathogens;
- Most hotpot ingredients should be stored in a refrigerator at 4 degrees C or below, while frozen food should be stored in a freezer at -18 degrees C or below;
- Never use raw eggs as a dipping sauce for hotpot; and
- Use different sets of chopsticks to handle raw and cooked food to avoid cross-contamination.
In addition, when using fuel-burning appliances, especially in indoor areas, the public should ensure adequate ventilation to avoid harmful exposure to carbon monoxide (CO) and prevent CO poisoning.
Fo more health information, the public may call the DH's Health Education Infoline (2833 0111) or visit the CHP's website and Facebook Fanpage as well as press releases of the Labour Department on precautions against cold weather for outdoor workers and their employers when the Cold Weather Warning is in force.
The public may also call Dial-a-Weather (1878 200) or visit the website of the Hong Kong Observatory for the latest weather information and forecasts, or its page on Weather Information for Senior Citizens.
The Centre for Health Protection (CHP), Photo source: reference image
