The 2026 Senate map is tough for Democrats, but Republicans have their own headaches

WASHINGTON (AP) — Republicans are encountering early headaches in Senate races viewed as pivotal to maintaining the party's majority in next year's midterm elections, with recruitment failures, open primaries, infighting and a president who has been sitting on the sidelines.

Democrats still face an uphill battle. They need to net four seats to retake the majority, and most of the 2026 contests are in states that Republican President Donald Trump easily won last November.

But Democrats see reasons for hope in Republicans' challenges. They include a nasty primary in Texas that could jeopardize a seat Republicans have held for decades. In North Carolina and Georgia, the GOP still lacks a clear field of candidates. Trump’s influence dials up the uncertainty as he decides whether to flex his influential endorsement to stave off intraparty fights.

Republicans stress that it remains early in the election cycle and say there is still plenty of time for candidates to establish themselves and Trump to wade in. The president, said White House political director James Blair, has been working closely with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D.

“I won’t get ahead of the president but look, him and leader Thune have been very aligned. I expect them to be aligned and work closely,” he said.

Trump's timing, allies say, also reflects the far more disciplined approach by him and his political operation, which are determined for Republicans to gain seats in both the Senate and the House.

Here's what's happening in some key Senate races:

Democrats have long dreamed of winning statewide office in this ruby red state. Could a nasty GOP primary be their ticket?

National Republicans and GOP Senate strategists are ringing alarm bells amid concerns that state Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is facing a bevy of personal and ethical questions, could prevail over Sen. John Cornyn for the nomination.

They fear Paxton would be a disastrous general election candidate, forcing Republicans to invest tens of millions of dollars they believe would be better spent in other states.

Texans for a Conservative Majority, a super political action committee supporting Cornyn, a onetime Trump critic, began airing television ads this past week promoting his support for Trump's package of tax breaks and spending cuts.

Don't expect the upbeat tone from the pro-Cornyn super PAC to hold long. Paxton was acquitted after a Republican-led impeachment trial in 2023 over allegations of bribery and abuse of office, which also exposed an extramarital affair. His wife, Angela, filed for divorce on July 10, referring to “recent discoveries” in announcing her decision to end her marriage of 38 years “on biblical grounds.”

“Ken Paxton has embarrassed himself, his family, and we look forward to exposing just how bad he’s embarrassed our state in the coming months," said Aaron Whitehead, the super PAC's executive director. Trump adviser Chris LaCivita, who comanaged Trump's 2024 campaign, is advising the group.

But Cornyn has had a cool relationship with Trump over the years, while Paxton is a longtime Trump ally. And Paxton raised more than three times as much as Cornyn in the second quarter, $2.9 million compared with $804,000, according to Federal Elections Commission reports.

Rep. Wesley Hunt is also weighing a run.

Will Trump be persuaded to endorse or will he choose to steer clear?

The surprise retirement announcement by two-term Sen. Thom Tillis has set off a frenzied search for a replacement in a state widely seen as Democrats’ top pickup opportunity. He had repeatedly clashed with Trump, including over Medicaid changes in the tax cut bill, leading the president to threaten to back a primary challenger.

All eyes are now on Lara Trump, the president's daughter-in-law, who is mulling whether to run in her home state as other potential candidates stand by.

A familiar national Republican face as co-chair of the Republican National Committee during Trump's 2024 campaign, Lara Trump is now a Fox News Channel host. She also had been a visible surrogate during previous campaigns, often promoting her North Carolina roots and the fact that she named her daughter Carolina.

Having a Trump on the ballot could boost a party that has struggled to motivate its most fervent base when Donald Trump is not running. But Lara Trump currently lives in Florida and has so far sounded muted on the prospect of a Senate run.

Other potential contenders include RNC chair Michael Whatley, who led North Carolina’s GOP before taking the national reins and is considered a strong fundraiser and Trump loyalist, and first-term Reps. Pat Harrigan and Brad Knott. While Lara Trump and Whatley are better known nationally, Harrigan is a West Point graduate and Knott is a former federal prosecutor.

Democrats are waiting on a decision from former two-term Gov. Roy Cooper, who is seen as a formidable candidate by both parties in a state Trump carried by just 3.2 percentage points last year. Former Rep. Wiley Nickel has entered the race, but it’s unclear what he would do if Cooper ran.

Republicans see Georgia and the seat held by Democrat Jon Ossoff as one of their best pickup opportunities. But the party remains in search of a well-known challenger after failing to persuade term-limited Gov. Brian Kemp to run.

A growing potential field includes Reps. Buddy Carter, Mike Collins and Rich McCormick, Insurance Commissioner John King and Derek Dooley, a former University of Tennessee football coach. The president is still meeting with possible candidates and is expected by many to wait to weigh in until his team has fully screened them and assessed their chances and after his budget priorities make their way through Congress.

Ossoff took in more than $10 million in the second quarter of the year, according to federal filings, after raising $11 million from January through March. He ended June with more than $15.5 million cash on hand.

That money will matter in what is sure to be an expensive general election. The Senate races in 2020, when Ossoff and Raphael Warnock narrowly won and flipped control to Democrats, cost more than $900 million combined.

Republicans hope the retirement of Democratic Sen. Gary Peters and a crowded, expensive Democratic primary will help them capture a seat that has eluded them for more than three decades. Here, too, all eyes are on Trump.

Republicans are rallying around former Rep. Mike Rogers, who came within 20,000 votes in 2024 against then-Rep. Elissa Slotkin and had Trump's endorsement. Rogers now appears to have momentum behind him, with the support of Thune, the National Republican Senatorial Committee and former Trump campaign veterans LaCivita and Tony Fabrizio.

But other Republicans could complicate things. Rep. Bill Huizenga has said he is waiting for guidance from the president on whether he should run.

“When people are asking why haven’t you announced or what are you going to do, it’s like, look, I want to get the man’s input, all right?” Huizenga told reporters last month. A spokesperson for Huizenga added that the congressman has spoken to Trump on the phone multiple times and has yet to be told not to run.

Still, White House officials have on more than one occasion encouraged Huizenga to stay in the House, according to one person familiar with the conversations who was not authorized to publicly discuss the private discussions and spoke only on condition of anonymity.

Democrats have their own messy primary, with state Sen. Mallory McMorrow up against Rep. Haley Stevens, state Rep. Joe Tate, and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed.

They were pleased to see that, even without any declared challengers, Rogers’ main campaign account raised just $745,000 during the second quarter, lagging Huizenga and several Democrats. (He brought in another nearly $779,000 through a separate joint fundraising committee.) McMorrow, by comparison, raised more than $2.1 million.

Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy has faced scrutiny from his party, in no small part for his 2021 vote to convict Trump after the president's second impeachment. Will Trump seek retribution against the two-term senator or ultimately back him?

Though Cassidy already faces two primary challengers, Louisiana is a reliably Republican state, which Trump won last year by 22 percentage points. Democrats are hoping a strong contender — potentially former Gov. John Bel Edwards, who has attracted Republican votes in the past — might mount a competitive challenge.

Republicans are awaiting word on whether Rep. Julia Letlow will run. In May, Gov. Jeff Landry and Trump privately discussed the two-term congresswoman entering the race.

Letlow and Landry appeared together at a congressional fundraiser for her in Lafayette, outside her northeast Louisiana district, on June 30, fueling speculation about her plans.

The governor’s discussion with Trump of a new challenger to Cassidy reflects the Trump base's unease with Cassidy, not simply over the impeachment vote, but also Cassidy's concerns about installing Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the nation's health secretary. Cassidy ultimately backed Kennedy, a move some saw as an effort to ease tensions.

Among Cassidy's Republican challengers so far are state Treasurer John Fleming and state Sen. Blake Miguez. Letlow, serving in the seat her husband held before he died of COVID-19, is considered a rising star in the Louisiana GOP.

Two-term Republican Sen. Joni Ernst has not said whether she plans to seek a third term.

Ernst would be expected to win in the state Trump carried by 13 percentage points last year. But she has come under some criticism from Iowa Republicans, including for saying she needed to hear more from Trump's pick for defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, before committing to support his nomination amid allegations of sexual assault that Hegseth denied.

The senator, a combat veteran and sexual assault survivor, eventually voted to confirm him.

Though a final decision awaits, Ernst has named a 2026 campaign manager and has scheduled her annual Iowa fundraiser for October.

FILE - Republican state senator Blake Miguez converses before the swearing-in of the Louisiana state legislature in Baton Rouge, La., Monday, Jan. 8, 2024. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert, Pool, File)

FILE - Rep. Julia Letlow, R-La., speaks, March 1, 2023, on Capitol Hill in Washington. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin, File)

FILE - Louisiana State Treasurer John Fleming, waves as he is introduced during the swearing in of the Louisiana state legislature in Baton Rouge, La., Jan. 8, 2024. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert, Pool, File)

Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., speaks during a hearing of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources on Capitol Hill, Thursday, July 10, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)

FILE - Rep. Bill Huizenga, R-Mich., speaks at a campaign rally, Nov. 4, 2024, in Grand Rapids, Mich. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya, File)

FILE - Former U.S. Rep. and Republican candidate for Michigan Senate Mike Rogers speaks during an event, Aug. 20, 2024 in Howell, Mich. (AP Photo/Carlos Osorio, File)

FILE - Missouri offensive coordinator Derek Dooley calls out instructions during an NCAA college football practice, Aug. 12, 2019, in Columbia, Mo. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson, File)

FILE - Rep.-elect Rich McCormick, R-Ga., speaks during a news conference with Republicans, Jan. 4, 2023, on Capitol Hill in Washington. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin, File)

FILE - Rep. Buddy Carter, R-Ga., speaks at an event, Sept. 24, 2024, in Savannah, Ga. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci, File)

FILE - Georgia Insurance and Safety Fire Commissioner John King makes a statement and answers questions from the media IN Gainesville, Ga., May 15, 2020. (Alyssa Pointer/Atlanta Journal-Constitution via AP, File)

FILE - Rep. Mike Collins, R-Ga., speaks at a campaign rally, Oct. 28, 2024, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/Mike Stewart, File)

FILE - North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper speaks at a campaign event in Charlotte, N.C., Sept. 12, 2024. (AP Photo/Nell Redmond, File)

FILE - Michael Whatley, chairman of the Republican National Committee, speaks at a campaign rally, Nov. 2, 2024, in Greensboro, NC. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon, File)

Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., a member of the Senate Banking Committee, tells reporters that it would be a mistake for President Donald Trump to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, during a vote in the Senate, at the Capitol in Washington, Wednesday, July 16, 2025. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

Lara Trump waves to the audience as President Donald Trump speaks at an event for the signing of the GENIUS Act, a bill that regulates stablecoins, a type of cryptocurrency, in the East Room of the White House, Friday, July 18, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Small Business Administration Chief Kelly Loeffler, left, and Rep. Wesley Hunt, R-Texas, arrive at Kelly Field air base in San Antonio, Texas, en route to observe flood damage in Kerrville, Texas, Friday, July 11, 2025. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

FILE - Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, left, walks with his wife and Texas State Sen. Angela Paxton on the sideline before an NCAA college football game between Navy and SMU in Dallas, Oct. 14, 2022. (AP Photo/LM Otero, File)

FILE - Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas speaks on Capitol Hill in Washington, April 8, 2025. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein, File)

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump is meeting with oil executives at the White House on Friday in hopes of securing $100 billion in investments to revive Venezuela’s ability to fully tap into its expansive reserves of petroleum — a plan that rides on their comfort in making commitments in a country plagued by instability, inflation and uncertainty.

Since the U.S. military raid to capture former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro on Saturday, Trump has quickly pivoted to portraying the move as a newfound economic opportunity for the U.S., seizing tankers carrying Venezuelan oil, saying the U.S. is taking over the sales of 30 million to 50 million barrels of previously sanctioned Venezuelan oil and will be controlling sales worldwide indefinitely.

On Friday, U.S. forces seized their fifth tanker over the past month that has been linked to Venezuelan oil. The action reflected the determination of the U.S. to fully control the exporting, refining and production of Venezuelan petroleum, a sign of the Trump administration's plans for ongoing involvement in the sector as it seeks commitments from private companies.

It's all part of a broader push by Trump to keep gasoline prices low. At a time when many Americans are concerned about affordability, the incursion in Venezuela melds Trump’s assertive use of presidential powers with an optical spectacle meant to convince Americans that he can bring down energy prices.

The meeting, set for 2:30 p.m. EST, will be open to the news media, according to an update to the president's daily schedule. “At least 100 Billion Dollars will be invested by BIG OIL, all of whom I will be meeting with today at The White House,” Trump said Friday in a pre-dawn social media post.

Trump is set to meet with executives from 17 oil companies, according to the White House. Among the companies attending are Chevron, which still operates in Venezuela, and ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips, which both had oil projects in the country that were lost as part of a 2007 nationalization of private businesses under Maduro’s predecessor, Hugo Chávez.

The president is meeting with a wide swath of domestic and international companies with interests ranging from construction to the commodity markets. Other companies slated to be at the meeting include Halliburton, Valero, Marathon, Shell, Singapore-based Trafigura, Italy-based Eni and Spain-based Repsol.

Large U.S. oil companies have so far largely refrained from affirming investments in Venezuela as contracts and guarantees need to be in place. Trump has suggested on social media that America would help to backstop any investments.

Venezuela’s oil production has slumped below one million barrels a day. Part of Trump's challenge to turn that around will be to convince oil companies that his administration has a stable relationship with Venezuela’s interim President Delcy Rodríguez, as well as protections for companies entering the market.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum are slated to attend the oil executives meeting, according to the White House.

Meanwhile, the United States and Venezuelan governments said Friday they were exploring the possibility of r estoring diplomatic relations between the two countries, and that a delegation from the Trump administration arrived to the South American nation on Friday.

The small team of U.S. diplomats and diplomatic security officials traveled to Venezuela to make a preliminary assessment about the potential re-opening of the U.S. Embassy in Caracas, the State Department said in a statement.

Trump also announced on Friday he’d meet with President Gustavo Petro in early February, but called on the Colombian leader to make quick progress on stemming flow of cocaine into the U.S.

Trump, following the ouster of Maduro, had made vague threats to take similar action against Petro. Trump abruptly changed his tone Wednesday about his Colombian counterpart after a friendly phone call in which he invited Petro to visit the White House.

President Donald Trump waves as he walks off stage after speaking to House Republican lawmakers during their annual policy retreat, Tuesday, Jan. 6, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)