US stocks churn amid uncertainty about how many more rate cuts are coming from the Fed

NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stocks churned between gains and losses on Wednesday but ultimately remained near their record levels.

The S&P 500 slipped 0.1% and hung near its all-time high set at the start of the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 260 points, or 0.6%, while the Nasdaq composite fell 0.3%.

The swings came after the Federal Reserve cut its main interest rate for the first time this year. That move was no surprise for Wall Street, which was widely expecting it. More important was the set of projections that Fed officials published showing where they expect interest rates to go in upcoming years.

That indicated the typical member sees the Fed cutting the federal funds rate two more times by the end of this year and once more in 2026.

Stocks initially rose following the release of the projections, which seemed to support Wall Street’s widespread expectation for more cuts to interest rates. Such moves can give the economy a kickstart, and stock prices had already run to records on the bet that several cuts are on the way.

But stocks gave back gains after Fed Chair Jerome Powell stressed that they’re only projections. Conditions could change quickly, and Powell warned against taking the projections as gospel.

“It’s such an unusual situation,” Powell said, saying later that “there is no risk-free path” that the Fed should obviously take with interest rates.

What’s making things difficult for the Fed is that the job market is slowing at the same time that inflation is remaining stubbornly high. The Fed is in charge of fixing both, but it has only one tool to do that. And helping one by moving interest rates often hurts the other in the short term.

The Fed had been holding rates steady this year because of the threat that President Donald Trump’s tariffs will raise prices for all kinds of products. Inflation has so far refused to go back below the Fed’s 2% target, and Fed officials don’t see that happening for a few years.

But discouraging reports on the job market mean inflation may no longer be the Fed’s No. 1 problem, or at least not by such a clear margin. “I would say they’re moving toward equality,” Powell said about the two risks.

Stocks swiveled several times as Powell spoke, and the movements were particularly jarring for the smallest stocks on Wall Street.

Smaller companies can get the biggest benefit from easier interest rates because of their need to borrow money to grow and compete with bigger rivals. Shortly after the Fed released its projections, the Russell 2000 index of smaller stocks surged more than 2% and was on track to surpass its all-time high, which was set in 2021. But it later pared its gain to a rise of 0.2%.

Lyft helped lead the market and drove 13.1% higher after saying it will bring autonomous ride-hailing service to Nashville with Waymo.

Workday rose 7.2% after Elliott Investment Management said it’s built a stake of more than $2 billion in it and supports its management. The company, which helps customers manage their finances and human resources, recently increased its program to send cash to investors through purchases of its stock by up to $4 billion.

The heaviest weights on the market, meanwhile, were Big Tech stocks. Nvidia fell 2.6%, and Broadcom sank 3.8%, for example. They’ve been some of the biggest reasons Wall Street has set records recently, benefiting from the frenzy around artificial-intelligence technology, almost regardless of what interest rates were doing.

RCI Hospitality Holdings dropped 10.4% after New York’s attorney general accused executives of bribery and other crimes for trying to avoid paying millions of dollars in sales taxes. RCI owns strip clubs and sports bars across the country, including Rick’s Cabaret.

Online ticket marketplace StubHub slumped 6.4% from its initial public offering price of $23.50 in its debut on the New York Stock Exchange.

All told, the S&P 500 fell 6.41 points to 6,600.35. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 260.42 to 46,018.32, and the Nasdaq composite fell 72.63 to 22,261.33.

In stock markets abroad, indexes were mixed across Europe and Asia.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.2% from its record after data showed Japan’s exports to the U.S. dropped 13.8% in August from a year earlier, as auto exports were hit by Trump’s tariffs.

In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.07% from 4.04% late Tuesday. It had briefly dropped below 4% immediately after the Fed released its projections for where interest rates are heading.

AP Business Writers Yuri Kageyama and Matt Ott contributed.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's news conference is displayed on a television screen as trader Robert Greason works at his post on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Wednesday, Sept. 17, 2025. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

Trader Michael Capolino, right, works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Wednesday, Sept. 17, 2025. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

Specialist Michael Gagliano, left, and trader Timothy Nick work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Wednesday, Sept. 17, 2025. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

Trader Fred Fred Demarco, left, works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Wednesday, Sept. 17, 2025. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

Options trader Anthony Spina, right, works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Monday, Sept. 15, 2025. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

FILE - People pass the New York Stock Exchange on Nov. 5, 2024, in New York. (AP Photo/Peter Morgan, File)

Currency traders work near a screen showing the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) at the foreign exchange dealing room of the Hana Bank headquarters in Seoul, South Korea, Tuesday, Sept. 16, 2025. (AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon)

President Donald Trump posted Wednesday on social media that anything less than U.S. control of Greenland is “unacceptable,” hours before Vice President JD Vance was to host Danish and Greenlandic officials for talks.

“NATO becomes far more formidable and effective with Greenland in the hands of the UNITED STATES,” Trump wrote.

On Iran, Trump's threat to impose a 25% tax on imports from countries doing business with the Islamic Republic could raise prices for U.S. consumers and further inflame tensions in a country where inflation is running above 40%.

And as Senate Republicans face intense pressure from Trump to vote down a war powers resolution Wednesday aimed at limiting him from carrying out more military action against Venezuela, an AP-NORC poll conducted after Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s Jan. 3 capture found that 56% of U.S. adults think Trump has overstepped on military interventions abroad, while majorities disapprove of how he's handling foreign policy.

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“Russia does not harbor aggressive plans toward its Arctic neighbors, does not threaten them with military action, and does not seek to seize their territory,” Russia’s ambassador to Copenhagen, Vladimir Barbin, told TV2, according to a statement published on social media by the Russian Embassy in Denmark.

“To successfully develop its Arctic potential, Russia is interested in stability and good relations between the states in the Arctic region,” he said.“Disputes and disagreements between Arctic states should be resolved in accordance with international law and through negotiations. Escalation in the Arctic must be avoided. It is necessary to restore broad international cooperation in the Arctic, which is capable of ensuring security more reliably and at lower cost than the unchecked drive by NATO countries to militarize the region.”

Denmark’s Lars Løkke Rasmussen and Greenland’s Vivian Motzfeldt are now at the White House campus for their high-stakes meeting with Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Ahead of their arrival, the office of Greenland Representation to the U.S. and Canada pushed back against Trump’s continued insistence that the Arctic territory become part of the United States.

“Why don’t you ask us, kalaallit?” the office said in a social media post, referring to the island’s indigenous Inuit people. The office noted that polling showed a vast majority of Kalaallit and Greenlanders oppose joining the United States.

Republican Sen. John Thune of South Dakota is venting some of his frustration in a Senate floor speech, sharply criticizing a war powers resolution vote that would require Trump to get congressional approval before carrying out further attacks on Venezuela.

The president has been hurling insults at five Senate Republicans who voted to advance the measure last week, and Republican Senate leaders were looking for ways to defuse the conflict, including possibly challenging whether the war powers resolution should be prioritized under chamber rules.

“We have no troops on the ground in Venezuela. We’re not currently conducting military operations there,” Thune said. “But Democrats are taking up this bill because their anti-Trump hysteria knows no bounds.”

Republican leaders could move to dismiss the measure under the argument that it is irrelevant to the current situation, but that procedure would still receive a vote.

The Trump administration is easing the review process to allow U.S. chip company Nvidia to sell advanced chips such as H200 and its equivalents to China. The move is a reversal from the Biden administration’s policy to restrict China’s access to advanced chips when the two countries are locked in a tech rivalry.

A rule by the Bureau of Industry and Security at the Department of Commerce this week says it would no longer presume denial on exports of H200 chips to China but conduct a case-by-case review on criteria such as whether the needs of U.S. users have been sufficiently met and if security concerns are addressed. The change has raised concerns among U.S. lawmakers, who are worried it could boost China’s computing powers, which are crucial in developing artificial intelligence capabilities.

It’s unclear if China would allow the imports of H200 chips, as it pursues self-sufficiency in high technology.

The Democratic former secretary of state did not show up for a scheduled deposition by the House Oversight Committee on Wednesday morning despite threats from Republicans to hold her and former President Bill Clinton in contempt of Congress.

The Clintons released a letter this week to Rep. James Comer, the committee chairman, explaining that they see the attempt to force their testimonies in the committee’s investigation into Jeffrey Epstein as “legally invalid” and biased against them. Bill Clinton also did not show up for a scheduled deposition on Tuesday morning.

Comer is planning to initiate contempt of Congress proceedings against the Clintons next week.

The clash showed how House Republicans are using the powers of the oversight panel to focus on high-profile Democrats who are associated with Epstein, a financier and convicted sex offender who killed himself in 2019.

Dozens of people holding Greenlandic flags have gathered to protest against U.S. militant rhetoric as Danish and Greenlandic officials are preparing to meet their counterparts in Washington.

The FBI searched journalist Hannah Natanson’s devices and seized a phone and a Garmin watch at her Virginia home, the Post said. Natanson covers the Trump administration’s transformation of the federal government and recently published a piece describing how she gained hundreds of new sources, leading a colleague to call her “the federal government whisperer.”

While classified documents investigations aren’t unusual, the search of a reporter’s home marks an escalation in the government’s efforts to crack down on leaks.

An affidavit says the search was related to an investigation into a system administrator in Maryland who authorities allege took home classified reports, the newspaper reported. The system administrator, Aurelio Perez-Lugones, was charged earlier this month with unlawful retention of national defense information, according to court papers.

Perez-Lugones, who held a top secret security clearance, is accused of printing classified and sensitive reports at work. In a search of his Maryland home and car this month, authorities found documents marked “SECRET,” including one in a lunchbox, according to court papers.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer says he expects Trump to try to interfere with the midterm elections, and he says raids by immigration agents in major cities are creating a sense of chaos that voters will reject in November.

The comments were part of a wide-ranging, 20-minute Associated Press telephone interview with the New York Democrat, who argued former Alaska Rep. Mary Peltola’s entry into the Senate race gives his party a path to the majority.

Schumer said that economic concerns have begun to cement in the minds of voters and that Democrats have plans to build their campaign around the costs, chaos and corruption they attribute to the Trump administration.

The White House has called such Democratic statements “fearmongering” to score political points.

▶ Read more from AP’s interview with Schumer

Senate Democratic leaders believe they have a path to winning the majority in November, though it’s one with very little wiggle room.

The party got a new burst of confidence when former Rep. Mary Peltola announced Monday she’ll run for the Senate in Alaska. Her bid gives Democrats a critical fourth candidate with statewide recognition in states where Republican senators are seeking reelection this year. Nationally, Democrats must net four seats to edge Republicans out of the majority.

That possibility looked all but impossible at the start of last year. And while the outlook has somewhat improved as 2026 begins, Democrats still almost certainly must sweep those four seats.

First, they must settle some contentious primaries, the mark of a party still struggling with its way forward after Republicans took full control of Washington in 2024. Importantly, they must also beat back challenges to incumbents in some of the most competitive states on the map.

▶ Read more about what Democrats are facing

Michigan Sen. Elissa Slotkin has been notified that the Trump administration is investigating her after she organized and appeared in a video with other Democrats urging military service members to resist “illegal orders.”

Slotkin, a former CIA analyst, first disclosed to The New York Times that prosecutors were investigating her. A person with knowledge of the situation who was not authorized to speak about it publicly confirmed the matter to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity.

Slotkin, who organized the 90-second video and first posted it on her X account in November, learned this month of the inquiry from the office of U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro, the Justice Department’s chief prosecutor in the nation’s capital. Pirro’s office did not immediately respond Wednesday to messages seeking comment.

▶ Read more about the inquiry

The Washington Post says FBI agents have searched a reporter’s home as part of an investigation into a government contractor accused of sharing government secrets.

The Post says journalist Hannah Natanson had her phone and a Garmin watch seized by agents at her Virginia home.

An FBI affidavit says the search was related to an investigation into a system administrator in Maryland who, authorities allege, took classified reports home.

An FBI spokesperson declined to comment. Justice Department officials haven’t responded to an Associated Press request for comment.

Natanson covers the Trump administration’s transformation of the federal government and recently published a piece describing how she gained hundreds of new sources, leading a colleague to call her “the federal government whisperer.”

U.S. President Donald Trump has made an American takeover of Greenland a focus of his second term in the White House, calling it a national security priority while repeating false claims about the strategic Arctic island.

In recent comments, he has floated using military force as an option to take control of Greenland. He has said that if the U.S. does not acquire the island, which is a self-governing territory of NATO ally Denmark, then it will fall into Chinese or Russian hands.

▶ Take a closer look at the facts

China’s trade surplus surged to a record of almost $1.2 trillion in 2025, the government said Wednesday, as exports to other countries made up for slowing shipments to the U.S. under President Donald Trump’s onslaught of higher tariffs.

China’s exports rose 5.5% for the whole of last year to $3.77 trillion, customs data showed, as Chinese automakers and other manufacturers expanded into markets across the globe. Imports flatlined at $2.58 trillion. The 2024 trade surplus was over $992 billion.

In December, China’s exports climbed 6.6% from the year before in dollar terms, better than economists’ estimates and higher than November’s 5.9% year-on-year increase. Imports in December were up 5.7% year-on-year, compared to November’s 1.9%.

▶ Read more about how economists expect exports to impact China’s economy

Although he doesn’t always follow through, Trump seems intent on doubling and tripling down whenever possible.

“Right now I’m feeling pretty good,” Trump said Tuesday in Detroit. His speech was ostensibly arranged to refocus attention on the economy, which the president claimed is surging despite lingering concerns about higher prices.

Trump has repeatedly insisted he’s only doing what voters elected him to do, and his allies in Washington remain overwhelmingly united behind him.

Republican National Committee spokesperson Kiersten Pels predicted that voters will reward the party this year.

“Voters elected President Trump to put American lives first — and that’s exactly what he’s doing,” she said. “President Trump is making our country safer, and the American people will remember it in November.”

It’s only two weeks into the new year, and Trump has already claimed control of Venezuela, escalated threats to seize Greenland and flooded American streets with masked immigration agents. That’s not even counting an unprecedented criminal investigation at the Federal Reserve, a cornerstone of the national economy that Trump wants to bend to his will.

Even for a president who thrives on chaos, Trump is generating a stunning level of turmoil as voters prepare to deliver their verdict on his leadership in midterm elections that will determine control of Congress.

Each decision carries tremendous risks, from the possibility of an overseas quagmire to undermining the country’s financial system, but Trump has barreled forward with a ferocity rattling even some of his Republican allies.

“The presidency has gone rogue,” said historian Joanne B. Freeman, a Yale University professor.

▶ Read more about the turmoil Trump is creating ahead of this year’s votes

Nearly half of Americans — 45% — want the U.S. to take a “less active” role in solving the world’s problems, the new AP-NORC poll found.

About one-third say its current role is “about right,” and only about 2 in 10 U.S. adults say they want the country to be more involved globally.

Democrats and independents are driving the desire for the U.S. to take a “less active” role. At least half of them now want the U.S. to do less, a sharp shift from a few months ago.

Republicans, meanwhile, have grown more likely to indicate that Trump’s level of involvement is right. About 6 in 10 Republicans — 64% — say the country’s current role in world affairs is “about right,” which is up slightly from 55% from September.

About half of Americans believe the U.S. intervening in Venezuela will be “mostly a good thing” for halting the flow of illegal drugs into the country, according to a new AP-NORC poll.

And 44% believe the U.S. actions will do more to benefit than harm the Venezuelan people. But U.S. adults are divided on whether intervention will be good or bad for U.S. economic and national security interests, or if it simply won’t have an impact.

Republicans are more likely than Democrats and independents to see benefits to the U.S. action, particularly its effects on drug trafficking. About 8 in 10 Republicans say America’s intervention will be “mostly a good thing” for stopping the flow of illegal drugs into the country.

▶ Read more about the poll’s findings

Most U.S. adults — 56% — say President Trump has “gone too far” in using the U.S. military to intervene in other countries, according to a new AP-NORC poll conducted from Jan. 8-11, after Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s capture.

Democrats and independents are driving the belief that Trump has overstepped. About 9 in 10 Democrats and roughly 6 in 10 independents say Trump has “gone too far” on military intervention, compared with about 2 in 10 Republicans.

The vast majority of Republicans — 71% — say Trump’s actions have been “about right,” and only about 1 in 10 want to see him go further.

▶ Read more about the poll’s findings

President Donald Trump speaks during a meeting with oil executives in the East Room of the White House, Jan. 9, 2026, in Washington, as Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio listen. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci, File)

Trump said in a social media post on Monday that he would impose a 25% tax on imports to the United States from countries that do business with Iran. The sanctions could hurt the Islamic Republic by reducing its access to foreign goods and driving up prices, which would likely inflame tensions in a country where inflation is running above 40%.

But the tariffs could create blowback for the United States, too, potentially raising the prices Americans pay for imports from Iranian trade partners such as Turkish textiles and Indian gemstones and threatening an uneasy trade truce Trump reached last year with China.

The Trump administration has offered scant details since announcing the new tariffs targeting Iran. It’s also unclear what legal authority the president is relying on to impose the import taxes. He invoked the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act to justify his most sweeping tariffs last year. But businesses and several states have gone to court arguing that Trump overstepped his authority in doing so.

▶ Read more about Trump’s threat of new tariffs

The Smithsonian Institution gave the White House new documents on its planned exhibits Tuesday in response to a demand to share precise details of what its museums and other programs are doing for America’s 250th birthday.

For months, Trump has been pressing the Smithsonian to back off “divisive narratives” and tell an upbeat story on the country’s history and culture, with the threat of holding back federal money if it doesn’t.

By Tuesday, the Smithsonian was supposed to provide lists of all displays, objects, wall text and other material dedicated to this year’s anniversary and other purposes. Smithsonian Secretary Lonnie Bunch III told staff, in an email obtained by The New York Times and The Washington Post, that “we transmitted more information in response to that request.”

The White House did not respond to a request for comment, leaving it unclear whether it was satisfied with the material it received.

▶ Read more about the Smithsonian

Trump said Wednesday that anything less than U.S. control of Greenland is “unacceptable,” hours before Vice President JD Vance was to host Danish and Greenlandic officials for talks.

In a post on his social media site, Trump reiterated his argument that the U.S. “needs Greenland for the purpose of National Security.” He added that “NATO should be leading the way for us to get it” and that otherwise Russia or China would.

“NATO becomes far more formidable and effective with Greenland in the hands of the UNITED STATES,” Trump wrote. “Anything less than that is unacceptable.”

Greenland is at the center of a geopolitical storm as Trump is insisting he wants to own the island, and the residents of its capital, Nuuk, say it is not for sale. The White House has not ruled out taking the Arctic island by force.

▶ Read more about Trump’s comments

President Donald Trump walks down the stairs of Air Force One upon his arrival at Joint Base Andrews, Md., Tuesday, Jan. 13, 2026. (AP Photo/Luis M. Alvarez)