A recipe for avoiding 15 million deaths a year and climate disaster is fixing food, scientists say

About 15 million deaths could be avoided each year and agricultural emissions could drop by 15% if people worldwide shift to healthier, predominantly plant-based diets, according to the EAT-Lancet Commission, which brought together scientists worldwide to review the latest data on food's role in human health, climate change, biodiversity and people's working and living conditions.

Their conclusion: Without substantial changes to the food system, the worst effects of climate change will be unavoidable, even if humans successfully switch to cleaner energy.

“If we do not transition away from the unsustainable food path we’re on today, we will fail on the climate agenda. We will fail on the biodiversity agenda. We will fail on food security. We’ll fail on so many pathways,” said study co-author Johan Rockström, who leads the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

The commission's first report in 2019 was regarded as a “really monumental landmark study” for its willingness to take food system reform seriously while factoring in human and environmental health, said Adam Shriver, director of wellness and nutrition at the Harkin Institute for Public Policy and Citizen Engagement.

Key points from the latest report:

The first EAT-Lancet report proposed a “planetary health diet” centered on grains, fruits, vegetables, nuts and legumes. The update maintains that to improve their health while also reducing global warming, it's a good idea for people to eat one serving each of animal protein and dairy per day while limiting red meat to about once a week. This particularly applies to people in developed nations who disproportionately contribute to climate change and have more choices about the foods they eat.

The dietary recommendations were based on data about risks of preventable diseases like Type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease, not environmental criteria. Human and planetary health happen to be in alignment, the researchers said.

Rockström said it may seem “boring” for an analysis to reach the same conclusion six years later, but he finds this reassuring because food science is a rapidly moving field with many big studies and improving analytics.

Food is one of the most deeply personal choices a person can make, and “the health component touches everyone’s heart,” Rockström said. While tackling global challenges is complicated, what individuals can do is relatively straightforward, like reducing meat consumption without eliminating it altogether.

“People associate what they eat with identity” and strict diets can scare people off, but even small changes help, said Emily Cassidy, a research associate with climate science nonprofit Project Drawdown. She wasn’t involved with the research.

The researchers looked beyond climate change and greenhouse gas emissions to factors including biodiversity, land use, water quality and agricultural pollution — and concluded that food systems are the biggest culprit in pushing Earth to the brink of thresholds for a livable planet.

The report is “super comprehensive” in its scope, said Kathleen Merrigan, a professor of food systems at Arizona State University who also wasn’t involved with the research. It goes deep enough to show how farming and labor practices, consumption habits and other aspects of food production are interconnected — and could be changed, she said.

“It’s like we’ve had this slow awakening to the role of food” in discussions about planetary existence, Merrigan said.

Changing worldwide diets alone could lead to a 15% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, because the production of meat, particularly red meat, requires releasing a lot of planet-warming gases, researchers concluded. Increased crop productivity, reductions in food waste and other improvements could bump that to 20%, the report said.

Cassidy said that if the populations of high- and middle-income countries were to limit beef and lamb consumption to about one serving a week, as recommended in this latest EAT-Lancet report, they could reduce emissions equal to Russia's annual emissions total.

Meanwhile, the report concludes that nearly half the world's population is being denied adequate food, a healthy environment or decent work in the food system. Ethnic minorities, Indigenous peoples, women and children and people in conflict zones all face specific risks to their human rights and access to food.

With United Nations climate talks around the corner in November, Rockström and other researchers hope leaders in countries around the world will incorporate scientific perspectives about the food system into their national policies. To do otherwise “takes us in a direction that makes us more and more fragile,” he said.

“I mean both in terms of supply of food, but also in terms of health and in terms of stability of our environments,” Rockström said. “And this is a recipe to make societies weaker and weaker.”

Follow Melina Walling on X @MelinaWalling and Bluesky @melinawalling.bsky.social.

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FILE - Farmers harvest rice crop in a paddy field on the outskirts of Guwahati, India, May 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Anupam Nath, File)

FILE - A person picks apples at an orchard in Wolfville, Nova Scotia, Monday, Oct. 9, 2023. (Darren Calabrese/The Canadian Press via AP, File)

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LONDON (AP) — President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was meeting the French, German and British leaders in London on Monday as Kyiv’s European allies try to strengthen Ukraine’s hand in thorny talks on a U.S.-backed plan to end the Russia-Ukraine war.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer was due to gather with Zelenskyy, President Emmanuel Macron and Chancellor Friedrich Merz at the British leader’s 10 Downing St. residence.

Zelenskyy said late Sunday that his talks with European leaders this week in London and Brussels will focus on security, air defense and long-term funding for Ukraine’s war effort. The leaders are working to ensure that any ceasefire is backed by solid security guarantees both from Europe and the U.S. to deter Russia from attacking again.

U.S. and Ukrainian negotiators completed three days of talks on Saturday aimed at trying to narrow differences on the U.S. administration’s peace proposal.

Zelenskyy said in a post on Telegram that talks had been “substantive” and that National Security and Defense Council Secretary Rustem Umerov and Chief of the General Staff Andrii Hnatov were traveling back to Europe to brief him.

A major sticking point in the proposal is the suggestion Ukraine must cede control of its eastern Donbas region to Russia, which illegally occupies most but not all of its territory. Ukraine and its European allies have balked at the idea of handing over land.

In an exchange with reporters on Sunday night, President Donald Trump appeared frustrated with Zelenskyy, claiming the Ukrainian leader “hasn’t yet read the proposal.”

“Russia is, I believe, fine with it, but I’m not sure that Zelenskyy’s fine with it," Trump said before taking part in the Kennedy Center Honors in Washington. "His people love it, but he hasn't read it."

Trump has had a hot-and-cold relationship with Zelenskyy since riding into a second White House term insisting that the war was a waste of U.S. taxpayers’ money. Trump has also repeatedly urged the Ukrainians to cede land to Russia to bring an end to the nearly four-year conflict.

The European talks follow the publication of a new U.S. national security strategy that alarmed European leaders and was welcomed by Russia.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the document, which spells out the administration’s core foreign policy interests, was largely in line with Moscow’s vision.

The document released Friday by the White House said the U.S. wants to improve its relationship with Russia after years of Moscow being treated as a global pariah and that ending the war is a core U.S. interest to “reestablish strategic stability with Russia.”

The document also says NATO must not be “a perpetually expanding alliance,” echoing another complaint of Russia’s. It was scathing about the migration and free speech policies of longstanding U.S. allies in Europe, suggesting they face the “prospect of civilizational erasure” due to migration.

Starmer’s government has declined to comment on the American document, saying it is a matter for the U.S. government.

As diplomatic efforts continued, Russian forces continued to assault Ukraine over the weekend. At least four people were killed in drone and missile strikes on Sunday, while Moscow continues to target Ukrainian energy infrastructure as winter sets in.

Meanwhile, Russian air defenses destroyed 67 Ukrainian drones overnight, Russia’s Ministry of Defense said Monday. The drones were shot down over 11 Russian regions, it said.

Novikov reported from Kyiv, Ukraine.

FILE - French President Emmanuel Macron, right, welcomes Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, on Dec. 1, 2025 before a meeting at the Elysee Palace in Paris. (AP Photo/Christophe Ena, File)

In this photo provided by the Ukrainian Emergency Services on Monday, Dec. 8, 2025, a rescue worker puts out a fire of a residential building damaged by a Russian strike in Sumy region, Ukraine. (Ukrainian Emergency Service via AP)

In this photo provided by the Ukrainian Emergency Services on Monday, Dec. 8, 2025, a rescue worker puts out a fire of a car in front of a residential building damaged by a Russian strike in Sumy region, Ukraine. (Ukrainian Emergency Service via AP)