The World Bank has raised its forecast for China's GDP growth in 2025 to 4.8 percent in its October 2025 East Asia and Pacific Economic Update released on Tuesday, 0.3 percentage points higher than its previous forecast of 4.5 percent in June.
The World Bank also projected China's GDP growth in 2026 to decline from 4.8 percent this year to 4.2 percent in 2026, "because of an expected slowdown in export growth and a likely reduction in the fiscal stimulus in light of rising public debt, as well as continued structural deceleration."
World Bank analysts also predicted that China will roll out more stimulus policies to support its annual growth target.
The report also forecast that the rest of the East Asia and Pacific region will grow by 4.4 percent in 2025 and 4.5 percent in 2026 "in the face of higher trade barriers, elevated global economic policy uncertainty and slower global growth, as well as increased domestic political and policy uncertainty."
Vietnam is expected to lead with a 6.6 percent growth, followed by Mongolia at 5.9 percent, and Palau at 5.7 percent in 2025.
The World Bank warned of slowing global economic momentum due to low consumer and business confidence and higher trade barriers, triggered in large part by U.S. economic and trade policies.
World Bank raises China's GDP forecast to 4.8 pct in 2025
