The average rate on a 30-year U.S. mortgage fell this week to its lowest level in more than a year, extending a recent trend that’s helped give lagging U.S. home sales a boost.
The average long-term mortgage rate fell to 6.19% from 6.27% last week, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday. A year ago, the rate averaged 6.54%.
This is the third straight weekly decline and it brings the average rate to its lowest level since Oct. 3, 2024, when it was 6.12%.
Borrowing costs on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, popular with homeowners refinancing their home loans, also eased this week. The average rate dropped to 5.44% from 5.52% last week. A year ago, it was 5.71%, Freddie Mac said.
Mortgage rates are influenced by several factors, from the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy decisions to bond market investors’ expectations for the economy and inflation. They generally follow the trajectory of the 10-year Treasury yield, which lenders use as a guide to pricing home loans.
The average rate on a 30-year mortgage has remained above 6% since September 2022, the year mortgage rates began climbing from historic lows. The housing market has been in a slump ever since.
Sales of previously occupied U.S. homes sank last year to their lowest level in nearly 30 years. Sales have remained sluggish this year, but accelerated last month to their fastest pace since February as mortgage rates eased.
Mortgage rates started declining in July in the lead-up to the Federal Reserve’s decision last month to cut its main interest rate for the first time in a year amid growing concern over the U.S. job market.
At their September policy meeting, Fed officials forecast that the central bank would reduce its rate twice more this year and once in 2026. Expectations that Fed policymakers will announce another rate cut at their meeting next week has helped bring down the 10-year Treasury below 4% of late. It was at 3.99% at midday Thursday, not far from around 3.97% the same time last week.
Still, the Fed could change course if inflation climbs further amid the Trump administration’s expanding use of tariffs and the recent trade war escalation with China.
“The upcoming cut is already priced in, while uncertainty over a potential December move, stubborn budget deficits and lingering inflation expectations continue to limit how far mortgage rates could fall,” said Jake Krimmel, senior economist at Realtor.com.
Even if the Fed opts to cut its short-term rate further that doesn’t necessarily mean mortgage rates will keep declining. Last fall, after the Fed cut its rate for the first time in more than four years, mortgage rates marched higher, eventually reaching just above 7% in January this year.
The late-summer pullback in rates has helped spur homeowners who bought in recent years after rates climbed above 6% to refinance their home loan to a lower rate.
Mortgage applications, which include loans to buy a home or refinance an existing mortgage, slipped 0.3% last week from a week earlier, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. But applications for mortgage refinance loans made up nearly 56% of all applications, a slight increase from the previous week.
Many prospective homebuyers are also turning to adjustable-rate mortgages. Such loans, which typically offer lower initial interest rates than traditional 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages, accounted for 10.8% of all mortgage applications last week.
Mortgage rates will have to drop below 6% to make refinancing an attractive option to a broader swath of homeowners, however. That’s because about 80% of U.S. homes with a mortgage have a rate below 6% and 53% have a rate below 4%, according to Realtor.com.
FILE - A "For Sale" sign is displayed outside a home on Friday, July 11, 2025, in Portland, Ore. (AP Photo/Jenny Kane, File)
KAMPALA, Uganda (AP) — One figure looms large ahead of Uganda's elections Thursday, although he is not on the ballot: the president's son and military commander, Muhoozi Kainerugaba.
Kainerugaba, long believed to be the eventual successor, stood down for his father, President Yoweri Museveni, who is seeking a seventh term that would bring him closer to five decades in power.
Yet Kainerugaba, a four-star general, remains a key figure in Ugandan politics as the chief enforcer of his father’s rule in this east African country. He is the top military commander, appointed by his father nearly two years ago after Kainerugaba told a political rally he was ready to lead.
Kainerugaba’s appointment as army chief put his political campaign on hold — a least, critics say, for as long as Museveni still wants to stay.
Many Ugandans are now resigned to the prospect of hereditary rule, once vehemently denied by government officials who said claims of a secret “Muhoozi Project” for leadership were false and malicious.
Kainerugaba himself has been honest about his presidential hopes since at least 2023 and openly says he expects to succeed his father.
“I will be President of Uganda after my father,” he said in 2023, writing on social platform X. “Those fighting the truth will be very disappointed.”
The president’s son is more powerful than ever, his allies strategically deployed in command positions across the security services. As the presumed heir to the presidency, he is the recipient of loyalty pledges from candidates seeking minor political offices.
Kainerugaba joined the army in the late 1990s, and his fast rise to the top of the armed forces proved controversial.
In February 2024, a month before Kainerugaba was named army chief, the president officially delegated some of his authority as commander-in-chief to the head of the military.
Exercising authority previously reserved for the president, including promoting army officers of high rank and creating new army departments, Kainerugaba is more powerful than any army chief before him, said Mwambutsya Ndebesa, a political historian at Uganda’s Makerere University, adding that family rule appears inevitable.
“Honestly, I don’t see a way out through constitutional means,” he said.
Elections, he said, “is just wasting time, legitimizing authority but not intended as a democratic goal... Any change from Museveni will be determined by the military high command.”
With Museveni not saying when he would retire, a personality cult around Kainerugaba has emerged. Some Ugandans stage public celebrations of his birthday. Campaign posters of many seeking parliamentary seats often feature the emblem of Kainerugaba’s political group, the Patriotic League of Uganda. Speaker of Parliament Anita Among last year called Kainerugaba “God the Son."
The speaker's comments underscored the political rise of Kainerugaba in a country where the military is the most powerful institution and Museveni has no recognizable successors in the upper ranks of his party, the National Resistance Movement.
Some believe Kainerugaba is poised to take over in the event of a disorderly transition from Museveni, who is 81. One critic, ruminating on Kainerugaba’s military rank, has been urging the son to depose his father.
“I have endlessly appealed to Muhoozi Kainerugaba to, at least, pretend to coup his dad, become the opposition hero, and accuse the old man of all the crimes the general Kampala public accuses him of,” Yusuf Serunkuma, an academic and independent analyst, wrote in the local Observer newspaper last year.
“Sadly, Kainerugaba hasn’t heeded my calls thus far. That he is being pampered by his father to the presidency doesn’t look good at all.”
Kainerugaba’s supporters say he is humble in private and critical of the corruption that has plagued the Museveni government. They also say he offers Uganda the opportunity of a peaceful transfer of political power in a country that has not had one since independence from British colonial rule in 1962.
In addition to opposing family rule, his critics point out that Kainerugaba has behaved badly in recent years as the author of often-offensive tweets.
He has threatened to behead Bobi Wine, a presidential candidate who is the most prominent opposition figure in Uganda. He has said the opposition figure Kizza Besigye, jailed over alleged treason charges, should be hanged "in broad daylight” for allegedly plotting to kill Museveni. And he has appeared to confound even his father, who briefly removed him from his military duties in 2022 when Kainerugaba threatened on X to capture the Kenyan capital of Nairobi in two weeks.
Wine said in a recent interview with The Associated Press that Kainerugaba's army "has largely taken over the election.” Wine said his supporters are the victims of violence, including beatings, perpetrated by soldiers.
In its most recent dispatch ahead of voting, Amnesty International said the security forces were engaging in a “brutal campaign of repression.” It cited one event at a rally by Wine’s party, the National Unity Platform, in eastern Uganda on Nov. 28, when one man died after the military blocked an exit and open fired on the crowd.
It was not possible to get a comment from Kainerugaba, who rarely gives interviews.
Frank Gashumba, a Kainerugaba ally and vice chairman of the Patriotic League of Uganda, said Wine was exaggerating the threat against him. “Nobody is touching him,” he said. “He’s lacking the limelight.”
Only one senior member of the president’s party has publicly pushed back against hereditary rule.
Kahinda Otafiire, a retired major general who is among those who were by Museveni’s side when he first took power by force after a guerrilla war in 1986, has urged Kainerugaba to seek leadership on his own merits rather than as his father’s son.
“If you say so-and-so’s son should take over from the father, his son will also want to take over from his grandfather. Then there will be Sultan No. 1, Sultan No. 2, and then the whole essence of democracy, for which we fought, will be lost," Otafiire, who serves as Uganda's interior minister, told local broadcaster NBS last year.
"Let there be fair competition, including Gen. Muhoozi. Let him prove to Ugandans that he is capable, not as Museveni’s son but as he, Muhoozi, who is competent to manage the country.”
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FILE - Lt. Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, son of Uganda's President Yoweri Museveni, attends a "thanksgiving" ceremony in Entebbe, Uganda, May 7, 2022. (AP Photo/Hajarah Nalwadda, File)
