Patriots and Broncos are both home underdogs despite 10-game winning streaks

The AFC’s two top teams are home underdogs in Week 15.

That sums up the state of the NFL in 2025. There are no dominant teams and even the ones with the best records still have much to prove.

The Denver Broncos and New England Patriots each are 11-2 and both teams have a 10-game winning streak.

But the Broncos are 2 1/2-point underdogs against the Green Bay Packers (9-3-1) on Sunday and the Patriots are 1-point underdogs against the Buffalo Bills (9-4) in a divisional rematch.

Pro Picks breaks down all the games, with lines from BetMGM Sportsbook.

Line: Panthers minus 2 1/2

The Panthers control their playoff hopes. They already lost at home to the Saints and won’t overlook them after New Orleans won in Tampa Bay last week. Bryce Young had an excellent game in a stunning upset over the Rams before a bye. Carolina has lost 11 straight games as a favorite and failed to cover the spread in each one. Tyler Shough is 2-3 as a starter with both wins on the road against the Panthers and Buccaneers.

BEST BET: PANTHERS: 23-17

Line: Rams minus 5 1/2

Jared Goff is 2-1 against Matthew Stafford, including a playoff win, since they were traded for each other. But the Rams got their Super Bowl victory with Stafford while the Lions are still trying to get to one. They’ve got a tough road to even get in the playoffs, starting this week. Goff and coach Dan Campbell are 23-12 ATS as underdogs. The Rams are 16-3 ATS in December since 2021. Something has to give.

UPSET SPECIAL: LIONS: 27-26

Line: Buccaneers minus 4 1/2

Kirk Cousins beat the Buccaneers twice last season, throwing for 785 yards, eight touchdowns and only one interception. Baker Mayfield and the Bucs are coming off a terrible loss at home to New Orleans. They have to get on track after losing four of five but the Falcons won’t be a pushover. The Bucs are 2-9 in night games with Mayfield and coach Todd Bowles.

BUCCANEERS: 23-22

Line: Ravens minus 2 1/2

Maybe facing the league’s worst defense will get Lamar Jackson going. The Ravens have no margin for error after a tough loss to the Steelers. Joe Burrow and the Bengals are playing spoiler. They already won in Baltimore on Thanksgiving. Jackson is 6-2 against Burrow.

RAVENS: 29-24

Line: Bills minus 1

The Bills opened 4-0 before the Patriots beat them at home in Week 4. New England has kept on winning. It feels like Josh Allen vs. Drake Maye is going to be a battle for AFC East supremacy for years. While the Bills rallied in a snowstorm to beat Burrow and the Bengals last week, the Patriots rested. Mike Vrabel’s teams in Tennessee were 6-1 overall and 6-1 against the spread off a bye.

BILLS: 27-24

Line: Giants minus 2

Quarterback Jayden Daniels will sit out Washington's game after aggravating his injured left elbow. He's been beat up all season and the Commanders have lost eight in a row. Jaxson Dart is taking his share of shots for the Giants, who’ve lost seven straight. Someone has to win.

GIANTS: 24-20

Line: Bears minus 7 1/2

Shedeur Sanders has made the Browns watchable. Myles Garrett needs three sacks to set the single-season record. Caleb Williams and the Bears can’t afford to look past Cleveland with three tough games coming up. Chicago is 1-8-1 ATS in the last 10 games after facing Green Bay. But these aren’t the same Bears.

BEARS: 20-13

Line: Chiefs minus 4 1/2

Coming off an overtime win against Philadelphia, the Chargers go for a sweep of a Chiefs team that’s on the verge of elimination. Patrick Mahomes and Co. ran out of margin for error. They need to win out and get plenty of help. Chiefs are 9-17 ATS in Mahomes’ last 26 starts.

CHIEFS: 22-20

Line: Eagles minus 11

The Raiders are the remedy the Eagles need to snap a three-game losing streak. Jalen Hurts is coming off a five-turnover performance and the calls for backup Tanner McKee to replace the reigning Super Bowl MVP are getting louder in Philly.

EAGLES: 30-13

Line: Jaguars minus 13

The Jets are a disaster under rookie coach Aaron Glenn while the Jaguars’ first-year coach, Liam Coen, turned the team around quickly. The Jets are 1-14 in their last 15 games against teams in Florida.

JAGUARS: 27-13

Line: Texans minus 9 1/2

Trey McBride is trying to become the first tight end to lead the league in receptions since Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez in 2004. That’s the lone bright spot for the Cardinals. Houston’s No. 1 defense will make it difficult on Jacoby Brissett.

TEXANS: 22-13

Line: Packers minus 2 1/2

Jordan Love, Micah Parsons and the Packers just beat the Bears to regain first place in the NFC North and face Chicago on the road next week. They can’t look ahead with a trip to Denver in between. This is a potential Super Bowl preview. The Broncos have come back to win nine games during their 10-game winning streak. The Packers under coach Matt LaFleur are 10-2 ATS after playing the Bears.

PACKERS: 21-17

Line: 49ers minus 12 1/2

The Titans ran all over the Browns to earn their second win. The 49ers have been winning despite missing their best defensive players. But Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle are healthy and carrying the offense.

49ERS: 30-16

Line: Seahawks minus 13 1/2

The Colts have gone from 7-1 to signing Philip Rivers out of a five-year retirement. They’re in full panic mode, doing whatever it takes to get to the playoffs. The Seahawks are one of the most balanced teams in the NFL with a stifling defense and top-10 offense.

SEAHAWKS: 24-13

Line: Cowboys minus 6

J.J. McCarthy is coming off his best game and Minnesota’s defense is tough enough to keep the Vikings close. With the Eagles reeling, the Cowboys still have a shot to win the NFC East. But they have to win out and it starts against the Vikings.

COWBOYS: 23-18

Line: Steelers minus 3 1/2

The Dolphins have won four straight games behind a strong rushing attack and improved defense to stay alive in the playoff chase. The Steelers are coming off a big win in Baltimore that put them back in first place in the AFC North. They can’t let up against Miami.

STEELERS: 22-17

Last week: Straight up: 9-5. Against spread: 10-4.

Overall: Straight up: 149-58-1. Against spread: 106-96-6.

Prime time: Straight up: 28-18-1. Against spread: 20-27.

Best Bet: Straight up: 10-4. Against spread: 7-6-1.

Upset Special: Straight up: 11-3. Against spread: 11-3.

Pro Picks is a weekly column where AP Pro Football Writer Rob Maaddi shares his picks for upcoming games. For all previous Pro Picks, head here.

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Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix rolls out of the pocket during the first half of an NFL football game against the Las Vegas Raiders in Las Vegas, Sunday, Dec. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Candice Ward)

Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) passes against the Las Vegas Raiders during the first half of an NFL football game in Las Vegas, Sunday, Dec. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Candice Ward)

New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye, front, is sacked by New York Giants linebacker Zaire Barnes, back, during the second half of an NFL football game Monday, Dec. 1, 2025, in Foxborough, Mass. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye rolls out during the first half of an NFL football game against the New York Giants, Monday, Dec. 1, 2025, in Foxborough, Mass. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Federal Reserve reduced its key interest rate by a quarter-point for the third time in a row Wednesday but signaled that it may leave rates unchanged in the coming months.

The cut decreased the Fed's rate to about 3.6%, the lowest it has been in nearly three years. Lower rates from the Fed can bring down borrowing costs for mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards over time, though market forces can also affect those rates.

Chair Jerome Powell suggested at a news conference that after six rate cuts in the past two years, the central bank can step back and see how hiring and inflation develop. In a set of quarterly economic projections, Fed officials signaled they expect to lower rates just once next year.

Fed officials “will carefully evaluate the incoming data," Powell said, adding that the Fed is “well positioned to wait to see how the economy evolves.”

The chair also said that the Fed’s key rate was close to a level that neither restricts nor stimulates the economy, a significant shift from earlier this year, when he described the rate as high enough to slow the economy and quell inflation. With rates closer to a more neutral level, the bar for further rate cuts is likely higher that it was this fall.

“We believe the labor market will have to noticeably weaken to warrant another rate cut soon,” Ryan Sweet, global chief economist at Oxford Economics, said.

Three Fed officials dissented from the move, the most dissents in six years and a sign of deep divisions on a committee that traditionally works by consensus. Two officials voted to keep the Fed's rate unchanged: Jeffrey Schmid, president of the Kansas City Fed, and Austan Goolsbee, president of the Chicago Fed. Stephen Miran, whom Trump appointed in September, voted for a half point cut.

December’s meeting could usher in a more contentious period for the Fed. Officials are split between those who support reducing rates to bolster hiring and those who’d prefer to keep rates unchanged because inflation remains above the central bank’s 2% target. Unless inflation shows clear signs of coming fully under control, or unemployment worsens, those divisions will likely remain.

“What you see is some people feel we should stop here and we’re in the right place and should wait, and some people think we should cut more next year,” Powell said.

A stark sign of the Fed’s divisions was the wide range of cuts that the 19 members of the Fed’s rate-setting committee penciled in for 2026. Seven projected no cuts next year, while eight forecast that the central bank would implement two or more reductions. Four supported just one. Only 12 out of 19 members vote on rate decisions.

President Donald Trump on Wednesday criticized the cut as too small, and said he would have preferred “at least double.” Trump could name a new Fed chair as soon as later this month to replace Powell when his term ends in May. Trump’s new chair is likely to push for sharper rate cuts than many officials will support.

Stocks jumped in response to the Fed's move, in part because some Wall Street investors expected Powell to be more forceful in shutting down the possibility of future cuts. The broad S&P 500 stock index rose 0.7% and closed near an all-time high reached in October.

Powell was also optimistic about the economy's growth next year, and said that consumer spending remains resilient while companies are still investing in artificial intelligence infrastructure. He also suggested growing worker efficiency could contribute to faster growth without more inflation.

Still, Powell said the committee reduced borrowing costs out of concern that the job market is even weaker than it appears. While government data shows that the economy has added just 40,000 jobs a month since April, Powell said that figure could be revised lower by as much as 60,000, which would mean employers have actually been shedding an average of 20,000 jobs a month since the spring.

“It’s a labor market that seems to have significant downside risks,” Powell told reporters. “People care about that. That’s their jobs.”

The Fed met against the backdrop of elevated inflation that has frustrated many Americans, with prices higher for groceries, rents, and utilities. Consumer prices have jumped 25% in the five years since COVID.

“We hear loud and clear how people are experiencing really high costs," Powell said Wednesday. "A lot of that isn’t the current rate of inflation, a lot of that is e mbedded high costs due to higher inflations in 2022-2023.”

Powell said inflation could move higher early next year, as more companies pass tariff costs to consumers as they reset prices to start the year. Inflation should decline after that, he added, but it's not guaranteed.

“We just came off an experience where inflation turned out to be much more persistent than anyone expected,” he said, referring to the spike in 2022. “Is that going to happen now? That’s the risk."

The Fed's policy meeting took place as the Trump administration moves toward picking a new Fed chair to replace Powell when his term finishes in May. Trump’s nominee is likely to push for sharper rate cuts than many officials may support.

Trump has hinted that he will likely pick Kevin Hassett, his top economic adviser. But on Wednesday, Trump said he would meet with Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor who has also been on the short list to replace Powell.

Trump added that he wants someone who will lower interest rates. “Our rates should be the lowest rates in the world,” he said.

A government report last week showed that overall and core prices rose 2.8% in September from a year earlier, according to the Fed's preferred measure. That is far below the spikes in inflation three years ago but still painful for many households after the big run-up since 2020.

Adding to the Fed's challenges, job gains have slowed sharply this year and the unemployment rate has risen for three straight months to 4.4%. While that is still a low rate historically, it is the highest in four years. Layoffs are also muted, so far, as part of what many economists call a “low hire, low fire” job market.

The Fed typically keeps its key rate elevated to combat inflation, while it often reduces borrowing costs when unemployment worsens to spur more spending and hiring.

Powell will preside over only three more Fed meetings before he steps down. On Wednesday, he was asked about his legacy.

“I really want to turn this job over to whoever replaces me with the economy in really good shape,” he said. "I want inflation to be under control, coming back down to 2%, and I want the labor market to be strong.”

Associated Press Writers Collin Binkley and Alex Veiga in Los Angeles contributed to this report.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the Federal Reserve, Wednesday, Dec. 10, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the Federal Reserve, Wednesday, Dec. 10, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the Federal Reserve, Wednesday, Dec. 10, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the Federal Reserve, Wednesday, Dec. 10, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

FILE _ Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at a news conference after the Federal Open Market Committee meeting Oct. 29, 2025, at the Federal Reserve Board Building in Washington. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta, File)