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Guinea's junta leader is expected to win first election since 2021 coup

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Guinea's junta leader is expected to win first election since 2021 coup
News

News

Guinea's junta leader is expected to win first election since 2021 coup

2025-12-24 19:43 Last Updated At:19:50

DAKAR, Senegal (AP) — Voters in Guinea will head to the polls on Sunday for the West African nation's first presidential election since the military took power in a 2021 coup, with analysts predicting a likely win for junta leader Gen. Mamadi Doumbouya.

Guinea is one of 10 African countries where soldiers have seized power since 2020, with some going on to win elections after delaying a return to democracy.

Since ousting President Alpha Condé four years ago, Gen. Doumbouya has clamped down on the main opposition and dissent, critics say, leaving him with no strong challenge to win a seven-year term in Sunday's election.

Despite its rich mineral resources — including as the world’s biggest exporter of bauxite, used to make aluminum — over half of Guinea's 15 million people are experiencing “unprecedented levels of poverty and food insecurity,” according to the World Food Program.

About 6.7 million registered voters are expected to cast ballots at roughly 24,000 polling stations nationwide, with results expected within 48 hours. There will be a runoff if no candidate wins a majority of the votes.

The West Africa regional bloc ECOWAS has deployed an election observation mission ahead of the vote.

Nine candidates are running, and Doumbouya’s closest challenger is the little-known Yero Baldé of the Democratic Front of Guinea party, who was education minister under Condé and who has promised governance reforms, anti-corruption efforts and economic growth.

Two opposition candidates, former prime minister Lansana Kouyaté and former government minister Ousmane Kaba, were excluded on technical grounds while longtime opposition leaders Cellou Dalein Diallo and Sidya Toure have been forced into exile.

In the capital, Conakry, there are mixed feelings about whether the election will reflect the voters' wishes.

It will be held under a new constitution that revoked a ban on military leaders running for office and extended the presidential mandate from five to seven years. That constitution was overwhelmingly approved in a September referendum that opposition parties called for voters to boycott.

There is little hope that the vote will truly mark a return to electoral democracy, said Alioune Tine, founder of Afrikajom Center, a West African political think tank.

“It's an election without the main opposition leaders and that is taking place in a context where civic space is heavily restricted,” Tine said. “The vote is mostly designed to legitimize Doumbouya’s grip on power."

Mamadou Bhoye Diallo, a restaurant owner in Conakry, said he won’t vote and called the election a “farce.”

“When a candidate is also the referee, can we expect a miracle?” Diallo wondered. “Major parties are sidelined and their leaders are in exile. You call that an election?” he added.

In addition to a weakened opposition, activists and rights groups say Guinea has since the coup seen civil society leaders silenced, critics abducted and the press censored. Last year, authorities dissolved more than 50 political parties in a move it claimed was to “clean up the political chessboard” despite widespread criticism.

But Doumbouya enjoys goodwill among many Guineans persuaded by his vows of a prosperous Guinea. The leader has built his campaign around major infrastructure projects and reforms launched since taking power four years ago.

Mamadama Touré, a high school student wearing a T-shirt with Doumbouya’s image, praised the leader as a champion of youth.

“In four years, he has connected Guinean youth to information and communication technologies,” the 18-year-old said, citing digital skills training programs put in place by the authorities.

The junta's other infrastructure projects include Simandou, a 75% Chinese-owned mega-mining project at the world’s largest iron ore deposit, which the military government is promoting as a cornerstone of economic transformation. After decades of delays, it began production last month.

Authorities say that a national development plan tied to the Simandou project aims to create tens of thousands of jobs and diversify the economy through investments in agriculture, education, transport, technology and health.

Doumbouya’s campaign, marked by large rallies and extensive media coverage, has dominated the political landscape, with state media and administrative support giving him a significant advantage over rivals with limited resources.

FILE - Guinean soldiers secure the area outside a polling station before Gen. Mamadi Doumbouya arrives to cast his vote in the constitutional referendum, in Conakry, Guinea, Sunday, Sept. 21, 2025. (AP Photo/Misper Apawu, File)

FILE - Guinean soldiers secure the area outside a polling station before Gen. Mamadi Doumbouya arrives to cast his vote in the constitutional referendum, in Conakry, Guinea, Sunday, Sept. 21, 2025. (AP Photo/Misper Apawu, File)

FILE - Guinea's junta leader Col. Mamady Doumbouya watches over an independence day military parade in Bamako, Mali on Sept. 22, 2022. (AP Photo, File)

FILE - Guinea's junta leader Col. Mamady Doumbouya watches over an independence day military parade in Bamako, Mali on Sept. 22, 2022. (AP Photo, File)

ANKARA, Turkey (AP) — Search teams on Wednesday recovered the cockpit voice and flight data recorders from the jet that crashed and killed Libya’s military chief and other senior officers, while efforts to retrieve the victims' remains were still underway, Turkey's interior minister said.

The private jet carrying Gen. Muhammad Ali Ahmad al-Haddad, four other officers and three crew members crashed in Turkey on Tuesday after taking off from the capital, Ankara, killing everyone on board. Libyan officials said the cause of the crash was a technical malfunction on the plane.

The high-level Libyan delegation was on its way back to Tripoli after holding defense talks in Ankara aimed at boosting military cooperation between the two countries.

Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya told journalists at site of the crash that wreckage was scattered across an area covering three square kilometers (about 1.2 square miles), complicating recovery efforts. Authorities from the Turkish forensic medicine authority were working to recover and identify the remains, he said.

A 22-person delegation — including five family members — arrived from Libya early on Wednesday to assist in the investigation, he said.

Libyan Prime Minister Abdul-Hamid Dbeibah confirmed the deaths on Tuesday, describing the incident on Facebook as a “tragic accident” and a “great loss” for Libya.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan held a telephone call with Dbeibah during which conveyed his condolences and expressed his sorrow over the deaths, his office said.

Al-Hadad was the top military commander in western Libya and played a crucial role in the ongoing, U.N.-brokered efforts to unify Libya’s military, which has split, much like Libya’s other institutions.

The four other officers who died in the crash were Gen. Al-Fitouri Ghraibil, the head of Libya’s ground forces, Brig. Gen. Mahmoud Al-Qatawi, who led the military manufacturing authority, Mohammed Al-Asawi Diab, advisor to the chief of staff, and Mohammed Omar Ahmed Mahjoub, a military photographer with the chief of staff’s office.

The identities of the three crew members were not immediately released.

Turkish officials said the Falcon 50 type business jet took off from Ankara’s Esenboga airport at 8:30 p.m. and that contact was lost some 40 minutes later. The plane notified air traffic control of an electrical fault and requested an emergency landing. The aircraft was redirected back to Esenboga, where preparations for its landing began.

The plane, however, disappeared from the radar while descending for the emergency landing, the Turkish presidential communications office said.

The Libyan government declared a three-day period of national mourning. Flags would be flown half-mast at all state institutions, according to the government’s announcement on Facebook.

The wreckage was found near the village of Kesikkavak, in Haymana, a district some 70 kilometers (about 45 miles) south of Ankara.

At the crash site, search and recovery teams intensified their operations on Wednesday after a night of heavy rain and fog, the state-run Anadolu Agency reported. Gendarmerie police sealed off the area while the Turkish disaster management agency, AFAD, set up a mobile coordination center. Specialized vehicles, such as tracked ambulances, were deployed because of the muddy terrain.

Turkey has assigned four prosecutors to lead the investigation and Yerlikaya said the Turkish search and recovery teams numbered 408 personnel.

While in Ankara, al-Haddad had met with Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler and other officials.

Libya plunged into chaos after the country’s 2011 uprising toppled and killed longtime dictator Moammar Gadhafi. The country split, with rival administrations in the east and west, backed by an array of rogue militias and foreign governments.

Turkey has been allied with Libya’s government in the west, but has recently taken steps to improve ties with the eastern-based government as well.

Tuesday’s visit by the Libyan delegation came a day after Turkey’s parliament approved to extend the mandate of Turkish troops serving in Libya for two years. Turkey deployed troops following a 2019 security and military cooperation agreement that was reached between Ankara and the Tripoli-based government.

Abuelgasim reported from Cairo. Fatma Khaled in Cairo contributed.

Turkish army soldiers stand guard as rescue teams search for the remains of a private jet carrying Libya's military chief and four others that crashed after taking off from Ankara, killing everyone on board, in Ankara, Turkey, early Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Efekan Akyuz)

Turkish army soldiers stand guard as rescue teams search for the remains of a private jet carrying Libya's military chief and four others that crashed after taking off from Ankara, killing everyone on board, in Ankara, Turkey, early Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Efekan Akyuz)

Turkish rescue teams search for the remains of a private jet carrying Libya's military chief and four others that crashed after taking off from Ankara, killing everyone on board, in Ankara, Turkey, early Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Efekan Akyuz)

Turkish rescue teams search for the remains of a private jet carrying Libya's military chief and four others that crashed after taking off from Ankara, killing everyone on board, in Ankara, Turkey, early Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Efekan Akyuz)

Turkish army soldiers stand guard as rescue teams search for the remains of a private jet carrying Libya's military chief and four others that crashed after taking off from Ankara, killing everyone on board, in Ankara, Turkey, early Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Efekan Akyuz)

Turkish army soldiers stand guard as rescue teams search for the remains of a private jet carrying Libya's military chief and four others that crashed after taking off from Ankara, killing everyone on board, in Ankara, Turkey, early Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Efekan Akyuz)

Turkish rescue teams search for the remains of a private jet carrying Libya's military chief and four others that crashed after taking off from Ankara, killing everyone on board, in Ankara, Turkey, Tuesday, Dec. 23, 2025. (AP Photo/Efekan Akyuz)

Turkish rescue teams search for the remains of a private jet carrying Libya's military chief and four others that crashed after taking off from Ankara, killing everyone on board, in Ankara, Turkey, Tuesday, Dec. 23, 2025. (AP Photo/Efekan Akyuz)

Turkish rescue teams search for the remains of a private jet carrying Libya's military chief and four others that crashed after taking off from Ankara, killing everyone on board, in Ankara, Turkey, Tuesday, Dec. 23, 2025. (AP Photo/Efekan Akyuz)

Turkish rescue teams search for the remains of a private jet carrying Libya's military chief and four others that crashed after taking off from Ankara, killing everyone on board, in Ankara, Turkey, Tuesday, Dec. 23, 2025. (AP Photo/Efekan Akyuz)

Turkish soldiers and rescue teams search for the remains of a private jet carrying Libya's military chief and four others that crashed after taking off from Ankara, killing everyone on board, in Ankara, Turkey, Tuesday, Dec. 23, 2025. (AP Photo/Efekan Akyuz)

Turkish soldiers and rescue teams search for the remains of a private jet carrying Libya's military chief and four others that crashed after taking off from Ankara, killing everyone on board, in Ankara, Turkey, Tuesday, Dec. 23, 2025. (AP Photo/Efekan Akyuz)

FILE - Libya's army chief of staff Gen. Muhammad Ali Ahmad al-Haddad poses for a photo in Tripoli, Libya, Oct. 3, 2022. (AP Photo/Yousef Murad, File)

FILE - Libya's army chief of staff Gen. Muhammad Ali Ahmad al-Haddad poses for a photo in Tripoli, Libya, Oct. 3, 2022. (AP Photo/Yousef Murad, File)

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