Why the US has designs on Venezuela's oil

NEW YORK (AP) — Venezuela's oil industry has been in the spotlight since President Donald Trump used military force to capture the country's leader, President Nicolas Maduro.

In the days that followed, Trump said the U.S. would run Venezuela and tap its oil reserves. He said Venezuela stole U.S. oil, a reference to former Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's move decades ago to nationalize hundreds of foreign-owned assets, including those owned by American oil companies.

Trump floated a plan for those companies to return and rebuild Venezuela's beleaguered oil industry. He later announced Venezuela would provide 30 to 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S. Then the administration “selectively” removed sanctions to enable the shipping and sale of Venezuelan oil to markets worldwide, saying the proceeds would settle in U.S.-controlled accounts and be disbursed to the American and Venezuelan populations, according to the Energy Department.

The moves may be part of a long-term strategy to gain a foothold in a nation with vast oil reserves.

Venezuela has one of the largest oil reserves in the world, and some energy analysts predict there won’t be enough oil to meet global demand in coming years.

The South American nation has an estimated 303 billion barrels of crude oil in the ground, which is about 17% of the world’s supply, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Unlike other parts of the world, where geologists have to search for untapped oil, the reserves under Venezuela’s soil are largely mapped and known, experts say. But because of dilapidated infrastructure, the country only produces about 1% of the world's oil.

“Venezuela has enormous reserves,” said Claudio Galimberti, global market analysis director and chief economist at Rystad Energy. “If you ask any oil company around the world, go to their exploration team, their geologists, and ask them where is oil going to come from in the 2030’s and 2040’s, their answer is a rather scary, ‘We don’t know.’ So there is going to be a problem of finding oil in the next few years.”

In the short term, the global supply of oil exceeds demand, so increased production from Venezuela isn’t critically needed. But the International Energy Agency estimates that under current policies approximately 25 million barrels per day of new oil supply projects will be needed by 2035 to keep markets in balance.

The oil in Venezuela is heavy, sour crude, which is what refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast process, and there are only a handful of countries that produce it. By contrast, most oil produced in the U.S. is light, sweet crude. If Venezuelan oil flows freely, it could potentially reduce the price of oil and gasoline.

American refineries could benefit financially from processing more crude oil, and it could increase the availability of diesel and jet fuel, said Kevin Book, managing director of ClearView Energy Partners.

“There seem to be two objectives. The first is to overall lower energy prices by adding to global supply, and second is to produce more of the heavy, sour crude that is currently in short supply relative to other grades,” Book said. “The first generally benefits end-users everywhere because lower prices reduce transportation and energy costs.”

More Venezuelan crude wouldn’t necessarily help U.S. oil producers, though, because having more oil on the market can lower oil prices, discouraging production and making it harder for those companies to remain profitable.

After Chavez nationalized hundreds of private businesses and foreign-owned assets in 2007, including oil projects run by Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips, international arbitration panels ordered Venezuela to repay billions of dollars to both companies, but the debts have yet to be collected.

In theory, if sanctions were lifted and Venezuela was under new leadership, major oil companies could invest in infrastructure and profit from the sale of oil.

Trump said he thinks Venezuela’s decimated oil industry could be rebuilt in less than 18 months with U.S. support. He envisions major oil companies returning to Venezuela to make those investments and profit from its oil industry.

But given the unrest and decades of badly damaged infrastructure, it’s unlikely to top the list of places oil companies would choose to invest, experts said.

“Imagine you are Exxon and you have global operations. Where are you going to put your money? Where it’s going to give you most return,” Galimberti said.

Companies also need assurance that assets won’t be taken again by a future government, said Daniel Sternoff, senior fellow at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy.

“You need to start with basic political stability before you’re going to have companies that are interested in making those kinds of investments,” Sternoff said. “We have more questions than answers over what the government of Venezuela will be."

A ConocoPhillips spokesman said the company is monitoring developments in Venezuela and their potential implications for global energy supply and stability. “It would be premature to speculate on any future business activities or investments” he said.

Exxon Mobil did not respond to a request for comment.

Infrastructure and equipment that the oil industry needs to maintain and increase production has been badly damaged in recent years.

“There was a lot of chaos and looting, and so therefore there’s a tremendous amount of damage to the surface equipment for producing oil all around the country,” said Amy Myers Jaffe, director of the Energy, Climate Justice and Sustainability Lab at New York University. “There are a lot pipelines that are leaking, and it requires a massive cleanup, there’s just a lot of physical devastation.”

There are also massive fuel shortages and electricity blackouts frequently across the country, and “to really produce oil, you need to have a stable grid,” Jaffe said.

In addition, many workers with technical expertise have left the country. Millions of Venezuelans fled as a consequence of Chavez and Maduro, and “there has been tremendous brain drain,” Sternoff said.

Rystad Energy estimates it would take $54 billion of oil and gas investment over the next 15 years to keep Venezuela’s oil production flat at around 1.1 million barrels per day, and that with additional investment over two to three years an additional 300,000 barrels per day could be added. Going beyond 1.4 million barrels per day would require an additional $8 billion to $9 billion per year, the group said.

There's also no precedent where a regime change in a major oil producing country has led to a rapid increase in output, Sternoff said. In most cases, such as Iraq, Iran, Libya and the Soviet Union, oil output fell significantly, often for years, before returning to prior peaks, he said.

“One of the lessons from Iraq is that the companies did go back, but that it was very difficult to operate when there was a difficult political and local backdrop that can range from insurgency to governance issues and corruption to infrastructure challenges,” Jaffe said.

A ship named Ithaca Patience, Panama, is docked on Lake Maracaibo, Venezuela, Wednesday, Jan. 7, 2026. (AP Photo/Edgar Frias)

The oil tanker named Xanthos Eos steam on Lake Maracaibo, Venezuela, Wednesday, Jan. 7, 2026. (AP Photo/Edgar Frias)A

MINNEAPOLIS (AP) — Protesters confronted federal officers Thursday in Minneapolis the day after a woman was fatally shot by an Immigration and Customs Enforcement officer.

The demonstrations came amid heightened tensions after President Donald Trump's administration dispatched 2,000 officers and agents to Minnesota for its latest immigration crackdown.

The killing of 37-year-old Renee Good on Wednesday set off a clash between federal and state officials over whether the shooting appeared justified and whether a Minnesota law enforcement agency had jurisdiction to investigate.

Here's what is known about the shooting:

The woman was shot in her SUV in a residential neighborhood south of downtown Minneapolis, about a mile (1.6 kilometers) from where police killed George Floyd in 2020. Videos taken by bystanders and posted online show an officer approaching a vehicle stopped in the middle of the road, demanding the driver open the door and grabbing the handle.

The Honda Pilot begins to pull forward and a different ICE officer standing in front of the vehicle draws his gun and immediately fires at least two shots at close range, jumping back as the vehicle moves toward him.

It is not clear from the videos if the officer gets struck by the SUV, which speeds into two cars parked on a curb before stopping.

It’s also not clear what happened in the lead-up to the shooting.

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said the SUV was part of a group of protesters that had been harassing agents and “impeding operations” that morning. She said agents had freed one of their vehicles that was stuck in snow and were leaving the area when the confrontation and shooting occurred.

No video has emerged to corroborate Noem’s account. Bystander video from the shooting scene shows a sobbing woman who says the person shot was her wife. That woman hasn’t spoken publicly to give her version of events.

Good died of gunshot wounds to the head.

A U.S. citizen born in Colorado, Good described herself on social media as a “poet and writer and wife and mom." Her ex-husband said Good had just dropped off her 6-year-old son at school Wednesday and was driving home when she encountered ICE agents on a residential street.

He said Good and her current partner moved to Minneapolis last year from Kansas City, Missouri.

Good's killing is at least the fifth death to result from the aggressive U.S. immigration crackdown the Trump administration launched last year.

Noem said Thursday that there would be a federal investigation into the shooting, though she again called the woman’s actions “domestic terrorism.”

“This vehicle was used to hit this officer,” Noem said. “It was used as a weapon, and the officer feels as though his life was in jeopardy."

Vice President JD Vance said the shooting was justified and referred to Good's death as "a tragedy of her own making.”

Minneapolis Police Chief Brian O’Hara gave no indication that the driver was trying to harm anyone when he described the shooting to reporters Wednesday. Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey said he had watched videos of the shooting that show it was avoidable.

Noem has not publicly identified the officer who shot Good. But she spoke of an incident last June in which the same officer was injured when he was dragged by another driver’s fleeing vehicle. A Homeland Security spokesperson confirmed Noem was referring to an incident in Bloomington, Minnesota.

Court records from that case identify the officer who was dragged and injured as Jonathan Ross.

Court documents say Ross got his arm stuck in a vehicle’s window as a driver fled arrest in Bloomington, Minnesota. The officer was dragged 100 yards (91 meters) and cuts to his arm required 50 stitches.

Drew Evans, head of Minnesota Bureau of Criminal Apprehension, said Thursday that federal authorities have denied the state agency access to evidence in the case, barring the state from investigating the shooting alongside the FBI.

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz demanded that state investigators be given a role, telling reporters that residents would otherwise have a difficulty accepting the findings of federal law enforcement.

“And I say that only because people in positions of power have already passed judgment from the president to the vice president to Kristi Noem," Walz said.

Noem denied that Minnesota authorities were being shut out, saying: “They don’t have any jurisdiction in this investigation."

Dozens of protesters Thursday morning outside a Minneapolis federal building being used a base for the immigration crackdown. Border Patrol officers fired tear gas and doused demonstrators with pepper spray to push them back from the gate.

Area schools were closed as a safety precaution.

Protests were also planned across the U.S. in cities including New York, New Orleans and Seattle.

Protesters confront federal agents outside the Bishop Henry Whipple Federal Building, Thursday, Jan. 8, 2026, in Minneapolis, Minn. (AP Photo/Tom Baker)

People gather for a vigil after an Immigration and Customs Enforcement officer shot and killed a motorist earlier in the day, Wednesday, Jan. 7, 2026, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Bruce Kluckhohn)

People participate in a protest and vigil after an Immigration and Customs Enforcement officer shot and killed a woman in Minneapolis, on Wednesday, Jan. 7, 2026. (Christopher Katsarov/The Canadian Press via AP)